Is a Barbour/Daniels Republican Presidential Ticket in the Works?

Mitch Daniels (left) & Haley Barbour (right)

Bookmark and Share Haley Barbour and Mitch Daniels are friends whose bonds developed during the early stages of their political careers when they worked in the Reagan Administration. Through the years, their friendship grew in to one that was shared by their families as the wives and children vacationed together. The friendship is not a political one. It is a personal one and that distinction is quite an important one. It is a distinction which could prevent one of the two to forego a run for President in 2012.

Both Haley Barbour are spoken of as potentially powerful candidates for President and both men are considering a run. But in an article by Politico, Daniels told Jonathan Martin

My first inclination would be to help Haley,” and adding “It would be unusual [if we both ran]. On every past occasion, we’ve been teammates.”

But for his part, Haley Barbour, a man who is truly more of a political animal than Daniels, has a bit of different spin. He shrewdly holds up his friendship with Daniels as one so strong that politics could never weaken it. When asked if his personal friendship with Mitch Daniels would make a difference in his decision to run for president or not, Barbour told Politico;

“If I thought we would have some falling out, it would, but I really don’t think we would have a falling out,”. He added “I think too much of him.”

Barbour also revealed that he suggested Mitch Daniels run for president even if he does too.

But while I do believe Barbour would easily run against his friend in a Republican primary for president, I do not believe Mitch Daniels would.

Mitch Daniels knows that Haley Barbour has the ability to consolidate the political and financial resources that Daniels would try to tap in to. For while the career paths of Daniels and Barbour have crossed, they took somewhat different directions. While Daniels immersed himself in policy and legislation, Barbour spent a significant amount of time building the Republican political machine, a machine that could now start working for him if he chose to run for President.

All things considered, the underlying dynamics of the Barbour – Daniels personal relationship could actually be the impetus behind a script that is slowly unfolding before our eyes. Could it be that these two friends whom Daniels once defined as teammates already know where theyre headed?

One school of thought is that Barbour will in fact seek the presidency and that Mitch Daniels will eventually join him, but as Vice President on Barbours G.O.P. ticket. This scenario would fit in to the current storyline quite well. While both Barbour and Daniels are increasing their out of state political presence and beginning to accept speaking engagements that normally precede a run for President, it is Haley Barbour who is calling some of the most prolific Republican fundraisers and bundlers and telling them to not commit to any of the potential Republican presidential candidates until he has made up his own on whether or not he will run. For his part, beyond a speaking engagements, Mitch Daniels has not as of yet conducted any discernable activities that would lead one to believe that he is preparing for a decision to actually run. At least none that are as aggressive as Barbour.

Yet Mitch Daniels has refused to say that he is definitely not running. He claims that he will make that decision sometime after the Indiana state legislative session ends in April. In the meantime, speculation about a Daniels run gains fuel. Not only are there draft Daniels for President movements popping up, a recent straw poll of Washington state Republican leaders gave Daniels a strong first place showing.

All of this only helps to raise the stature of Mitch Daniels and letting it play itself out could provide a boost for Barbour if in the end, he wins the Republican presidential nomination and then taps his trusted and popular friend to be his Vice President.

Vice Presidential nominees are not usually the determining factor in a presidential election. In 1992, Al Gore did not even deliver his home state of Tennessee to Bill Clinton. But in 2008 many suggest that John McCains selection of Sarah Palin as his running mate, helped to fire up the Republican base which up till then, was not very enthusiastic. But in 2012, a Barbour-Daniels ticket could prove to be the winning ticket.

While Haley Barbour should be able to corral support from the South of which he is a son of, Mitch Daniels can certainly be a net gain for Republicans in the important Midwest. Daniels could force President Obama to invest more time and money into Illinois, his home state and the neighboring state to Daniels Indiana. Mitch Daniels could also help the Republican ticket to run strong in Ohio and most certainly deliver Indiana for the G.O.P.. In 2008, Indiana went Democratic in the presidential election for the first time since 1964.

Between a solid South for the G.O.P., and reclaiming Indiana and Ohio. All a Barbour-Daniels ticket would need to reach 270 electoral votes is Colorado. But a combination of New Mexico and Nevada could also make winning possible. Of course if the G.O.P. keeps a solid South and can take Indiana and Ohio, just winning Illinois would provide them with the magic number needed to take back the White House.

For now, to discuss who will be the nominee for Vice President when we have no idea who the nominee for President will be, is, to say the least, a stretch. But a look at the underlying political forces that involve the political math and the personal relationship of Barbour and Daniels, and what you have is a very plausible scenario. For me the only real question regarding this scenario is whether or not I would personally prefer a Daniels-Barbour ticket to a Barbour-Daniels ticket?

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3 Responses

  1. […] Read the original here: Is a Barbour/Daniels Republican presidential Ticket in the Works … […]

  2. By 2012, The National Popular Vote bill could guarantee the Presidency to the candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC).

    Every vote, everywhere, would be politically relevant and equal in presidential elections. Elections wouldn’t be about winning states. No more distorting and divisive red and blue state maps. Every vote, everywhere would be counted for and directly assist the candidate for whom it was cast. Elections wouldn’t be about winning states. Candidates would need to care about voters across the nation, not just undecided voters in a handful of swing states.

    In the 2012 election, pundits and campaign operatives already agree that only 14 states and their voters will matter under the current winner-take-all laws (i.e., awarding all of a state’s electoral votes to the candidate who receives the most popular votes in each state) used by 48 of the 50 states. Candidates will not care about 72% of the voters– voters in 19 of the 22 lowest population and medium-small states, and big states like California, Georgia, New York, and Texas. 2012 campaigning would be even more obscenely exclusive than 2008 and 2004. In 2008, candidates concentrated over 2/3rds of their campaign events and ad money in just 6 states, and 98% in just 15 states (CO, FL, IN, IA, MI, MN, MO, NV, NH, NM, NC, OH, PA, VA, and WI). Over half (57%) of the events were in just 4 states (Ohio, Florida, Pennsylvania and Virginia). Candidates have no reason to poll, visit, advertise, organize, campaign, or care about the voter concerns in the dozens of states where they are safely ahead or hopelessly behind. Policies important to the citizens of ‘flyover’ states are not as highly prioritized as policies important to ‘battleground’ states when it comes to governing.

    The bill would take effect only when enacted, in identical form, by states possessing a majority of the electoral votes–that is, enough electoral votes to elect a President (270 of 538). When the bill comes into effect, all the electoral votes from those states would be awarded to the presidential candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC).

    The bill uses the power given to each state by the Founding Fathers in the Constitution to change how they award their electoral votes for president.

    In Gallup polls since 1944, only about 20% of the public has supported the current system of awarding all of a state’s electoral votes to the presidential candidate who receives the most votes in each separate state (with about 70% opposed and about 10% undecided). Support for a national popular vote is strong in virtually every state, partisan, and demographic group surveyed in recent polls in closely divided battleground states: CO– 68%, IA –75%, MI– 73%, MO– 70%, NH– 69%, NV– 72%, NM– 76%, NC– 74%, OH– 70%, PA — 78%, VA — 74%, and WI — 71%; in smaller states (3 to 5 electoral votes): AK – 70%, DC – 76%, DE –75%, ME — 77%, NE — 74%, NH –69%, NV — 72%, NM — 76%, RI — 74%, VT — 75%, and WY – 69%; in Southern and border states: AR –80%, KY — 80%, MS –77%, MO — 70%, NC — 74%, and VA — 74%; and in other states polled: CA — 70%, CT — 74% , MA — 73%, MN – 75%, NY — 79%, WA — 77%, and WV- 81%.

    The bill has passed 31 state legislative chambers, in 21 small, medium-small, medium, and large states, including one house in AR, CT, DE, DC, ME, MI, NV, NM, NY, NC, and OR, and both houses in CA, CO, HI, IL, NJ, MD, MA ,RI, VT, and WA . The bill has been enacted by DC, HI, IL, NJ, MD, MA, and WA. These 7 states possess 74 electoral votes — 27% of the 270 necessary to bring the law into effect.

    http://www.NationalPopularVote.com

  3. […] some friendly teamwork going here. As I described in a previous White House 2012 post entited Is a Barbour/Daniels Ticket in the Works? , Daniels could become a candidate in order to help divide the vote outside of the South, between […]

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