Former Iowa Caucus Winner Predicts Romney to be the Next Winner in Iowa

Bookmark and Share  In an appearance on Fox News Sunday, former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee predicted that Mitt Romney will win the Iowa caucuses even though he has not spent a great deal of time or money in the state.

Huckabee, the surprise winner over Romney in the 2008 Iowa Republican Caucuses believes that this will be due, in large part to the fact that Iowa’s evangelical voters have not rallied around any one particular conservative candidate.

But Huckabee attaches a stipulation to his prediction. He uses weather as a reason for the possibility of a Ron Paul win Iowa. According to the former Governor turned Fox News host;

“If the weather is good, Mitt Romney is in better shape. If the weather is bad and it’s real tough to get out, Ron Paul would win.”

Huckabee claims;

“Ron Paul has an exceptional organization there. And it very well could be that he could end up winning because of the extraordinary devotion of his followers,”

He added;

“He’s got people that would walk over broken glass for him and they’d break the glass just to be able to say they did it. So, watch out for Ron Paul.”

While it is true that weather always plays a role in determining election results and I would tend to agree with Huckabee’s opinion about Ron Paul benefiting from bad weather on the day of the caucuses, a recent poll indicates that Newt Gingrich would in fact benefit from inclimate weather in Iowa.

According to an American Research Group Iowa Republican Caucus survey, among likely GOP Caucus voters who say they will definitely participate in the Caucus, 22% say they are voting for Newt Gingrich while only 17% say they would for Ron Paul.  The ARG results were as follows;

  • Newt Gingrich 22%
  • Mitt Romney 20%
  • Ron Paul 17%
  • Rick Perry 10%
  • Michele Bachmann 8%
  • Jon Huntsman 5%
  • Rick Santorum 5%
  • Buddy Roemer 1%
  • Other 0%
  • Undecided 12%

Those results would seem to indicate that Newt’s supporters are more committed to him than the the supporters of others candidates are to their candidate of their choice.

Yet despite this encouraging news for Gingrich, I still agree with Huckabee.

If Iowans find themselves in the midst of a blizzard with near sub-zero temperatures and a foot or two snow falling, the highly motivated, radical Pauliacs  will shovel their way through the snow in order to get their caucus destinations and that kind of committment alone will be enough to make Paul the defacto winner.

Much of this will also come down to organization and in that area, candidates like Bachmann, Santorum, Romney, and Paul, all surpass Newt Gingrich who has little if any real organization in Iowa.

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