Newt’s Risky Statute of Limitation Strategy

 Bookmark and Share    Back in 1999 and 2003, I was living in Brooklyn, where I was born and raised.  It was an exciting time to be a Republican in Brooklyn and the other 4 boroughs of New York City.  Rudy Giuliani was running for Mayor and the city G.O.P. was on the verge of electing a Republican mayor for the first time in over a generation. 

But Rudy lost in 1989.  It was very close, but a loss nonetheless.  However there wasn’t much time wasted before preparations began for Rudy to run  in 1993. 

That second campaign saw a correction of course which assured that mistakes made the first time around, were not made a second time. One of those changes dealt with Rudy’s image.  The campaign of the hard nosed, steely nerved, former prosecutor with a tough on crime reputation that preceded him, started to market Rudy as a softer, nicer candidate than he was in 1989.  So in ’93, out came campaign literature featuring, warm toned images of a smiling Rudy Giuliani.  The words spoken were more subtle and the images were softer. 

That year, Rudy won and the rest is history.

That same kind of softening of his image is what we saw Newt Gingrich begin to do when last Wednesday, he used a debate on national security to make clear that he did not want to use U.S. immigration policy as a tool used to break up and destroy families.

The move is a risky one among the conservative faithful of a Republican Party whose electorate is tired of games being plaid with ineffective immigration policies and an unwillingness to enforcement effective anti-illegal immigration policies.  It seemed to be antithetical to the hardline, “deport their asses” thinking, that many of us have towards illegal immigration.  However Newt’s position was a strategic move designed to position himself in the general election. 

Newt’s position is that those illegal immigrants who have gone undetected for so many years now that they have established their roots and become productive members of communities, should not see their lives destroyed by tearing their families apart.  He did not offer amnesty and did not suggest that these people be pushed to the head of any line for legal immigration.  But he was accused of doing so.  And understandably so.  The issue is not quite as clear cut as many of us wish it to be.  The difference is that Newt is acknowledging the fact that it is not so clear cut.  Others like Michele Bachmann are not.

The truth is that those who have assimilated into our society after years of the federal government’s unwillingness and inability to enforce its own laws, should not suddenly be uprooted because the federal government is now suddenly willing to play by  its own rules.  As with many crimes, there is a statute of limitations.  Such  statutes are meant to balance the substantive right to justice with the notion of procedural fairness, and in truth, those illegal immigrants who have been here for ten, twenty, and thirty years, and have become a part of our society and created new lives, with new families of their own, would be seeing a change in procedures that at this point in time can only be seen as unfair.

Newt’s position is not amnesty, it is a logical extension of jurisprudence through an understandable statute of limitation.

If the United States suddenly intends to finally get serious about its immigration laws, sobeit.  I’m all for that.  Let us first secure borders and then let us enforce our laws and make it clear that the United States is closed to illegal immigration.  That is what Newt Gingrich sees fit to do as well. 

As with everything else in politics, it is not quite as simple as that.  You still have to somehow find a way for those who fell through the cracks to become citizens.  But Newt is willing to address these issues.  Others in the G.O.P. are not.

If Newt can articulate this approach effectively, conservatives, especially social conservatives, will come to see that he is taking a conservative approach to the issue, one which encompasses all aspects of conservative beliefs, such as the preservation of families and communities.   If he can explain his position properly, conservatives will see that Newt is willing to address the problem of illegal immigration, but not just some of it.  All of it. 

Yet Newt’s seemingly compassionate view of long term illegal immigrants is still conservative and it is quite different than the position on in-state tuition discounts that Rick Perry supports.  Newt’s policy is not one that rewards illegal immigration with economic benefits paid for at the expense of taxpayers.  It is one that accepts reality and realistically deals with it.

However, in a politically charged atmosphere that only allows one to score points with soundbites, Newt’s position may be a hard sell among conservatives.  But if he can convince them that his approach is a realistic one to a very real and very complex problem, Newt will be better positioned if he does become the nominee.  Justas Rudy was in 1993.

In the general election, when the Republican presidential nominee is painted as an evil, cold-hearted, fiend, Newt will have his leverage.  He will be able to point to his preservation of families and his understanding of the problems that face us, as evidence of a man of both heart and mind.  Like Rudy in 1993, when he won , Newt is smoothing out the seemingly hard edges of conservatism.  He does so at the risk of being painted too soft but the Republican base will be doing itself a disservice by not recognizing the difference between liberalism and logic.

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“Rudy Rules Out a Run for President. Says It’s Too Late For Me”

Giuliani at a campaign event in Derry, New Ham...
Image via Wikipedia

Bookmark and Share   In an announcement that was overshadowed by New Jersey Governor Chris Christie’s endorsement of Mitt Romney for President, former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani announced to an audience in Long Island that he will not for President in 2012.  He added;

“if it’s too late for Chris Christie, it’s too late for me”.

For several months now, Giuliani has stated that he was thinking about making a second run.

He briefly ran a dismal race for the Republican presidential nomination in 2008.  However, despite having exceptional favorable numbers and even leading in many polls, Giuliani’s campaign was a flop.  Much of that was due to the fact that he decided to ignore the earliest state contests and try to make Florida his presidentiaql launching pad.  Rudy wound up in the back field when all was said done.

Rudy never really seemed to be very interested in becoming President.  Ever since he raised the possibility of running in 20012, he treated the idea as an afterthought, not a priority.  To maker matter worse, in what could only have been seen as a dislike for Sarah Pa;in’s conservatism, back in January, Rudy indicated that if Palin ran, he would.  Trying to make sure that someone else does not win, does make one a good a choice to be the leader of free world, yet that is exactly why Rudy considered running.  He just doesn;t like Palin’s politics, so he contemplated becoming a candidate so he could do just that.

So I am glad Rudy won’t be running.  Who needs Rudy when we have Jon Huntsman?

And here is some news for Rudy.  None of us sitting on the edge of seats waiting for your decision.

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Is Paul Electable? Only As GOP Nominee

He came in behind Michele Bachmann.  And don’t be fooled, Ron Paul was actually trying in Iowa.  So is Ron Paul really a top tier candidate now?  Jon Stewart seems to think so.

Actually, Ron Paul probably would win in a head to head with Barack Obama.  For a second tier candidate, he polls pretty well in head to head matchups with Obama.  The problem is, in his own party primary he comes in a consistent fourth at best.  Add Perry, minus Pawlenty, no change for Ron Paul.  Real Clear Politics has Ron Paul in sixth place right now behind two candidates who aren’t even running.  And I hate to say it, but Guiliani doesn’t have a shot.  Still, he outpolls Paul in the GOP primaries.

Is the lack of media attention really because we are afraid of Ron Paul winning?

Is Paul electable?  Sure.  As the GOP candidate he would make up for lost Republicans he has alienated with independents he appeals to.  Unlike McCain who went after fiscal liberal independents, Paul would go after social and national security liberal dependents.  He would actually take these away from Obama.

Shoot, I’d vote for Ron Paul over Obama.  But I’d also vote for half the Democrats over Obama at this point.

Www.dailypaul.com has suggested that half the Republicans want a third party.  That’s great, throw in half the Democrats and half the Independents, get them to agree on Paul, and you might have a case for a third party Paul run.  As it is, polls show Paul would only play spoiler as a third party candidate.

So is it a big deal that Ron Paul came in second behind Michele Bachmann in Iowa?  I’m going to say no.  Now, if he wins the Iowa Caucus, that might be something to talk about.

Christie and Giuliani and Ryan and Palin, Oh My!

Bookmark and Share   Four More Possibly Entries Into the G.O.P. Presidential Field Keep Things In a High State of Flux

 
As the time for when it will be too late to enter the presidential race approaches, four names remain the main focus of speculation. They are Sarah Palin, New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani, and now House Budget Committee Chairman, Congressman Paul Ryan.

Yesterday reliable source Stephen Hayes confirmed that Congressman Ryan has been and is considering a run for the White House. Despite statements to the contrary from Ryan at the beginning of the year, Hayes, who has been investigating the story for over eight months, determined in July that Ryan was now considering it. This change of heart can be associated to a recent statement he made in which he indicated that he has” yet to see a strong and principled articulation of the kind of limited government, opportunity society path that we would provide as an alternative to the Obama cradle to grave welfare state.”

Today the unreliable MSNBC source that is Jonathon Alter tweeted that he has discovered New Jersey Governor Chris Christie is conducting focus groups in preparation for a possible run for President in 2012. Aides to the Governor have denied the rumor and I tend to believe them. Christie may very well be conducting focus groups but that could easily be in reference to the type of strategy that he intends to use for the selling of his legislative agenda and the state legislative elections that are being held this year in New Jersey. With newly drawn district lines, both houses of the state legislature are up for election and for Republicans, winning control of at least one of the two houses will go a long way in passing Christie’s agenda in the two years to come.

Still though, it is not unrealistic for Christie to be mulling over the possibility of a presidential run.

He has been courted by business groups and political leaders throughout the country including one recent delegation from Iowa, where the first presidential nomination contest takes place. He has also been skewing his language lately in a way that would have him seem less partisan than he has been in the past. This is not to say he has moderated his positions but he has framed his positions as being the result of non-partisan, good government,  leadership, rather than partisan political leadership.

Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani has himself said that he considering a second go at the Republican presidential nomination. However it is clear to me that Rudy is far too indecisive to even be considered. For whatever the reasons, ever since Rudy left elected office in 2001, he has come close to running for United States Senate and then abandoned his first senate race against Hillary Clinton. Then he toyed with running for Governor, first against Eliot Spitzer than against Andrew Cuomo and in between he toyed again with the idea of running against either Chuck Schumer or Kirsten Gillibrand for the U.S. Senate. And in 2008 his run for President was so half hearted and pathetic that it could not be taken seriously. In fact Rudy has toyed with running for elective office so much that it would seem he is more interested in playing than leading.

Furthermore; if Rudy did not learn from his last failed attempt for the White House that a late start does not help, than I doubt he has learned enough to make another run any better than his last.

However, this time around , Rudy believes that the more Republicans who run for the nomination, the better his chances of winning because he will have a greater ability to distinguish himself as a moderate, a point he made in this interview with Piers Morgan. In the end though, the only way that Rudy will run is if Sarah Palin runs.

Rudy truly dislikes Palin and her politics, he has said so. And from what I gather, any attempt to run by Rudy would motivated solely by his desire to go after Palin. He has so much as said that if Sarah Palin runs for president, then, hell, he might as well throw his hat in the ring, too.

This does not a President make.

But Rudy probably won’t run. First because he is not as committed to the prospect of being President as one should be. And second, because Sarah Palin is not likely to run.

Palin has made no visible moves that are indicative of the early beginnings of a campaign. She is also doing quite well as a positive motivational force and making good money at the same time. This combined with the fact that she knows how much her and her family would have to sacrifice at the mercy of a national media opposed to her, makes the prospects of a presidential candidacy for Palin unlikely. Another factor is Rick Perry. Perry and Palin have become friends of sorts and now that the Texas Governor is in, I believe there is a high probability that she will endorse him.

But this is not set in stone either. If circumstances change and if Perry’s prospects are shot down and Palin believes she would be the only truly viable conservative TEA movement candidate, she will enter the race. This is unlikely but possible, especially given the fact that of all the possible Republican names being thrown around for President, she is the only one who has a national following so large and so motivated that she can afford a late entry in to the race.

With an infinitesimal number of variables at play in the evolving presidential race, it would unwise for me to make any predictions. But the only reference to wise that has ever been made regarding me is to mouth, so I will go out on a limb here and make my prediction. Of Ryan, Christie, Giuliani and Palin, the only one who is still likely to get in to the race is Paul Ryan. At least that is what I hope. In fact it is my hope which is probably what most accounts for this prognostication. But as they say, hope springs eternal.

UPDATE:  Just as I wrote, Jonathan Alter is in fact an unreliable source.  As of this evening, Alter tweeted the following:

“Re my Christie screwUp: sources doing own focus groups that they made seem Christie semi-authorized. Wishful thinking.”
 
Leave it to MSNBC first to hire a socialist like Alter, and two to try pass Alter off as credible.

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Rudy Feels a Sense of Urgency Regarding His Decision to Run for President

Bookmark and Share    Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani is said to be preparing for a second run for theRepublican  presidential nomination.

 Although no one is confirming that a final decision to run has been made , anonymous sources close to Giuliani but unauthorized to speak for him, have indicated that the anticipated announcement of Texas Governor Rick Perry’s presidential candidacy, has the Mayor feeling a sense of urgency in keeping his options open. That urgency stems from a fear that Perry’s entry in to an already crowded field of candidates will make it harder for Giuliani to hire good political talent for his own possible campaign in New Hampshire. It is for that reason that Rudy has been contacting many of New Hampshire’s Republican politicos. Whether any of them have committed themselves to work for Giuliani if he runs is not yet known,

Part of that concern has Wayne Semprini, the man in charge of Rudy’s New Hampshire campaign in 2008, contacting potential staffers in an attempt to assure the Rudy campaign of at least at a few experienced staffers, As for himself, Semprini confirms that the mayor is still considering a run but if Rudy does run , Semprini  will again stand with Rudy .

The only thing that is certain at the moment is the fact that Rudy will not be making any announcement, one way or the other until after the ten year anniversary of the 9/11 terrorist attacks. Rudy does not want to be seen as tying the somber and emotionally charged anniversary to his political ambitions. Back in 2001, Rudy’s presidential prospects began to get quite real in the wake of his masterful handling of the crisis in New York City when he was its Mayor,

It is also said that the Giuliani camp wants to get a feel for how Rick Perry’s candidacy is received and how it shakes up and shapes up the existing field.

In recent months, I have not taken the thought of another Rudy presidential candidacy seriously. In past WH12 articles on the topic, I have even made fun Rudy’s presidential prospects. His last campaign was so poorly planned and managed that I do not believe he really wants the job of President but would instead like to be a political player and would like to either be the vice presidential nominee or be given a cabinet position. Rudy‘s heart is not in to running. If it were, he would have taken Hillary Clintons‘s Senate seat or when she left office he would have taken it from from Kirstin Gillibrand or The Governor‘s mansion from Andrewm, “Son of Mario”, Cuomo. But he didn‘t.  Instead he has consistently thumbed his nose at running for statewide office and sparing us from the likes of Chuck Schumer.  But now we are suddenly suppose to believe that he wants to run for President in all fifity states.? Sorry but I don‘t think so.

That doesn’t mean he won’t do it. He very well might, but mark my words, if he does run, it will not be for his own presidency, it will be for the presidency of the man or woman who he can help cinch the nomination by swinging how ever many delgates Rudy may win, to the candidate that needs them to make it over the top. That arrangement will then make Rudy a kingmaker that will require many people to kiss his ring and beg for some political mercy from him once he gets the position he wants. For Rudy, the way I see it, he wants to either be Vice President or head of the CIA, FBI, Homeland Security or mybe Secretary of State. Of course another dream job for any good Italian boy from Brooklyn and Queens is that of Ambassador to the Holy Sea in Vatican City.

But other than that, I do not see Rudy’s run for President as a sincere effort to win the White House. Having worked for Rudy, I do know that while he is arrogant enough to think he is the best man for the job of President, I also know that he is not stupid enough to expect to win the Republican nomination under the current circumstances .  But kingmaker is not out of the question and Rudy knows that that is where he can have a big effect on the 2012 presidential race.

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Rudy Giuliani: A Better Democrat Presidential Candidate Than Republican Presidential Candidate?

Giuliani in drag and the way social conservatives see him

Bookmark and Share  As Rudy Giuliani continues to pretend that he can be a viable candidate for President on the Republican ticket, on Sunday during CNN’s State of the Union, he told Candy Crowley “the Republican Party would be well advised to get the heck out of people’s bedrooms and let these things get decided by states”.

While Giuliani claimed that he believes marriage should be between a man and woman, he stated that the libertarian streak of the Republican party should want to avoid “getting involved in people’s sexual lives.”

The former New York City mayor and failed 2008 candidate for the Republican presidential nomination told Republicans to  “Stay out of it,” and added. “I think we’d {Republicans} be a much more successful political party if we stuck to our economic, conservative roots and our idea of a strong, assertive America that is not embarrassed to be the leader of the world.”

While there is a degree of truth in Giuliani’s remarks, the social conservative base of the G.O.P. will not appreciate hiss lack of defense of what they would consider family values. However during the interview, Giuliani did clarify that in trying to make sure that families stay strong, he believed marriage should be preserved as a union between a man and a woman. He went on to state that he disagreed with New York State’s recent legalization of gay marriage but added that it was based on a democratic vote and can live with it.

While Rudy supports civil unions, he also believes the issue should be left up to each of the fifty states to decide for themselves.

Rudy’s position on the issue is one which highlights what is essentially one of the G.O.P.’s most pressing ideological questions. If Republican conservatism is based largely on liberty and limited government, should a limited government actually make decisions that do not allow those who live in relationships that involve an alternative lifestyle to have those relationships receive equal treatment by the law and under a judicial system that is suppose to be blind to our differences? Or is the primary responsibility of Republican conservatism the mission to defend “traditional” family values regardless of how much government must get involved in attempts to do so?

Sooner or later, the Republican Partyis going to have to make this decision. However, in the case of Rudy Giuliani, it is not likely that he will be able to do much to sway the Party in his direction. Answering that question will likely require the leadership of truly respected conservative leaders who are more trusted by the right than the left. It will also require the generational influences that account for the progression of cultural change that accounts for the societal changes that are constantly evolving.

In the meantime, the G.O.P. as a whole must somehow keep itself forging ahead while trying to reconcile its limited government beliefs with its desire to involve government in legislating family values. All while applying the basic American tenet of creating laws that defend equality. Until this reconciliation is achieved the G.O.P. will risk losing a significant minority of followers and future followers to the libertarian cause.

As for Giuliani, the reality of the current G.O.P. would indicate that he might have a better chance of defeating President Obama in a race for the Democrat presidential nomination, than he has at winning the Republican presidential nomination.

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Is Cain Trying in Iowa?

No, if you believe his now former Iowa director Tina Goff and Kevin Hall who was in charge of coordinating for the Iowa straw poll in just over a month.  Jim Zeiler has also left the Iowa staff and Cain lost his New Hampshire director earlier this week.  When it comes to managing a campaign, things are not looking good for Cain.

On the other hand, Cain is looking good in the Iowa polls.  Most recently he came in second only to perpetual front runner Mitt Romney and remade Michelle Bachmann.

Will the Guiliani gamble work for Cain?

The problem is that Cain has not done or said anything to differentiate himself from Michelle Bachmann.  Going into this race he had perhaps set himself apart as a more “serious” candidate, and certainly took on early momentum from the TEA Party.  But Bachmann easily out-shined him in the debate and continues to make the right steps even in the face of extreme character assassination.  Bachmann’s successes have made her detractors appear to be less “serious”.

In the meantime, Cain is reducing himself to soundbite worthy quips and small government platitudes while his substance seems to be a foggy mirror of the clarity Bachmann has produced.  The result is that Cain is quietly slipping into the shadows where other candidate copies, like Gary Johnson (generic brand Ron Paul) and Jon Huntsman (Mitt Romney clone only the media is excited about) reside.  Bachmann is quickly taking the TEA Party energy.

In some ways, Cain brought this on himself.  His radio host style speeches leave little substance to hang one’s hat on and his brief handling of gay marriage in the debate has alienated him from the religious section of the TEA Party.  In addition, at times he has seemed clueless on some of the more detailed issues such as right of return for a Palestinian state.  This still puts him miles ahead in knowledge from someone like Joe Biden who wanted a three state solution for Iraq.

Cain does have one demographic that still turns out strongly in support of him, and that is the African American conservatives, moderates, and independents.  Many of these who helped turn Florida blue for Barack Obama and are now disenchanted with his policies are indicating strong support for Cain.  Whereas Iowa is turning out to be a fiscal versus social conservative battle between Romney and Bachmann, all important Florida may end up being a fiscal versus social conservative battle between Romney and Cain. Real Clear Politics shows Cain in second place to Romney in Florida out of current candidates, but large percentages going to Huckabee and Palin.  It will be interesting to see how those Palin and Huckabee supporters break by the time we reach Florida.  It won’t be for Mitt Romney.

If Cain can survive until Florida and then capitalize on it, losing Iowa might not be that big a deal.  Then again, perhaps he should talk to Rudy Guiliani about that strategy.

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