Palin Power Punishes Establishment Again

In an absolutely stunning development, little known state legislator, Deb Fischer, badly beat two GOP rivals in Nebraska’s primary yesterday. She will face Democrat Bob Kerrey in the general with a Senate seat up for grabs. A preliminary poll released by Democrats showed Fischer up by double digits over Kerrey. But that’s a story for later.

In addition to Fischer, the Nebraska GOP primary included the state’s attorney general and establishment-backed Jon Bruning and conservative state treasurer, Don Stenberg, supported by Club for Growth and the Senate Conservative Fund. It is estimated that Stenberg and his supporters spent $1.3 million while Bruning and pals coughed up $1.2 million on the campaign. Amazingly, Fischer’s costs have been estimated at a mere $400,000. As a result, Fischer was left for dead weeks ago. How did Fischer mount a comeback, take a majority of the vote and leave the GOP-establishment scratching their heads?

Well, both Bruning and Stenberg have some baggage to be sure, while Fischer’s personal demon — voting for a gasoline tax hike — was minimized by an otherwise consistently strong state voting record. Bruning and Stenberg, having notable financial support, viewed one another as the true adversary and squared off against each other, ignoring Fischer. The mutual punishment they dished out damaged each of their campaigns while Fischer was left, for the most part, unscathed.

And, of course, there was Palin power.

While GOP big-shots like Jim DeMint, Rick Santorum, Mike Huckabee and Rand Paul endorsed either Stenberg or Bruning as candidates, Sarah Palin was the only “national name” to endorse Fischer. A note of endorsement sent from Palin to Fischer on May 8th was released to the media the following day. In effect, Fischer went from nobody to the GOP primary winner in a week. This is the second time this month Palin has punished the GOP establishment — she endorsed conservative Richard Mourdock before his win over moderate Richard Lugar.

The current political power of Palin is astonishing. Missing some races early during 2010, Palin was mocked and ridiculed by both the GOP establishment and Democrats. But there can be no denying¬† that her track record of endorsements ‚Äď Rand Paul, Nikki Haley, Richard Mourdock earlier this month, now Fischer to name a few ‚Äď has staggered the GOP-establishment like a crisp shot to the chin.

Ultimately, however, the high stakes battle for the right to define the future of the GOP is still unresolved. Karl Rove is a seasoned veteran and he and his beltway boys will not go down easily. Palin, to her credit, has vastly improved her politics and has avoided blunders that the establishment can pounce on to discredit her. She’s also on a hot streak.

Follow I.M. Citizen at IMCitizen.net

The Republicans’ fading colours – The Spectator Magazine

Link to the original article:

http://www.spectator.co.uk/essays/all/7648068/web-exclusive-the-republicans-fading-colours.thtml

 

Web exclusive: The Republicans’ fading colours

11 February 2012

CPAC Review essay by White House 2012 writer David Cowan published on The Spectator magazine website

 

Growing up in the 1960s, my primary school in Cambridge had an outdoor roofless boy‚Äôs toilets, and we happily enjoyed urinating up the wall. It was a sign we were getting further up the school when one day we were able to urinate over the wall itself ‚ÄĒ much to the annoyance of people on the other side. This memory came to mind this week at the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) in Washington DC over the weekend, the annual gathering of some ten thousand political activists. This year CPAC was a pissing contest to see who was the most conservative.

The three Republican frontrunners, Santorum, Romney and Gingrich, in that order, sought to reach the base and convince activists about their conservative qualities. The themes they all offered were: what’s wrong with the Obama administration; a shopping list of what conservative policies would work better; an appeal to American exceptionalism; and a return to the founding principles of the Constitution and the Declaration of Independence.

The three candidates are looking for the right to fight an Obama administration seen as somewhat Carteresque, from failed election promises through to the ideological infighting. Obama, though personally liked (Ann Coulter joked he would make a nice neighbour, unless you’re Chinese, then he’d keep borrowing stuff), is seen as ineffective and evasive.

To reenergise America, the candidates laid claim to the mantle of Ronald Reagan, frequently invoking his name and sunny disposition. Yet herein lies the rub. Reagan defeated Carter with ideas for the economy and foreign policy, successfully combining a conservative vision and charm to appeal to swing voters. At CPAC 1974, Reagan gave his famous ‚Äėbold colours, not pale pastels‚Äô speech, asserting conservative principles. This weekend showed that some of the colours have long since faded.

Things were certainly off-colour last time I was here, back in 2009, as defeated activists sought to pick themselves up after Obama’s coronation. The biggest cheers then were for Newt Gingrich and Rush Limbaugh, as they offered succour. Newt entered to his incongruous theme tune ‚ÄėEye of the Tiger‚Äô, but instead of entering stage right he walked in through the crowd, parting them Moses-like, shaking hands and hugging supporters.

The danger three years on is, of course, an election that will see CPAC 2013 take place after a second Obama inauguration. Expect then a sinking sense of what might have been. For many American conservatives a Republican failure this year will exacerbate what they fear most: n irreversible dependency culture and Europeanisation. Daniel Hannan flew into DC to warn on just this point, expressing his amazement to rapt delegates that while Europe is driving off the cliff they can see America in their rear-view mirror, overtaking them.

Back in 2009 something else happened at CPAC. Sarah Palin was slated to speak, but failed to appear either in person or via a hastily announced satellite link. This was the signal that Sarah was taking the celebrity high road, rather than the political low road. This year, however, she did appear as closing speaker to offer the benediction ‚ÄĒ but not the one most people expected. She did not endorse Gingrich, as he himself alluded to in his own speech by quoting her husband Todd. She called for unity, but convoluted as ever, Palin said ‚Äėwhoever our nominee is we must work together to get him over the finishing line, and then next year we will have a true conservative in the Oval office‚Äô ‚ÄĒ only to go on Fox news on Sunday afternoon to say she is still to be convinced Romney that is indeed a conservative.

Despite this, and despite the Santorum surge, Romney will see this conference as mission accomplished ‚ÄĒ reinforced by the CPAC Straw Poll narrowly backing his candidature. Out of the three candidates it looks seemed that Romney pissed the highest this weekend. And, while still divided, all the delegates would agree about who should be standing on the other side of the wall, on the receiving end.

See Sarah Palin’s Entire CPAC Keynote Address: “You Gotta Hope Things Change”

FROM CPAC: Palin Closes Out CPAC Slamming Obama Economics: ‚ÄúHis plan isn‚Äôt winning the future, it‚Äôs losing the country.‚ÄĚ (See the video below this post)

Bookmark and Share Former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin unloaded on President Barack Obama and the Washington D.C. establishment during an address that closed out the 2012 Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC).

Before a jam-packed crowd, with hundreds more watching on monitors in the convention center hallways and overflow rooms, Palin attacked the Obama economic agenda from many angles.

She identified the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) as a key culprit in destruction of jobs in America. Instead of developing America’s own homegrown resources, the EPA has put the country in a position where it must rely upon dubious foreign sources, she said. And the EPA makes it difficult for businesses trying to expand although, Palin noted wryly, the EPA never seems to block the construction of new government buildings in Washington D.C.

‚ÄúInstead of calling Washington D.C. a swamp, call it a wetland,‚ÄĚ she said. That would be one way to slow the march of government, she suggested.

Palin also took aim at ‚Äúcrony capitalism,‚ÄĚ which she said, was growing the size of government at the expense of average Americans.

‚ÄúThe politicians arrive as men and women (in Washington D.C.) and they become plutocrats. And they spread the wealth around to their pals.‚ÄĚ

Palin also reminded audience members that CPAC was initiated by conservative activists who were out to remake the Republican Party. Reagan called for ‚Äúbold colors, not pale pastels,‚ÄĚ she said.

There is a certain paradox at work in the current political cycle, Palin said. ‚ÄúThe conservative movement has never been stronger or brighter, yet the federal government has never cast a bigger shadow.‚ÄĚ

The Tea Party has momentum because ‚Äúthe American people have woken up‚ÄĚ to the dangers of big government, she said.

If the country continues on a path where policy makers attempt to tax and spend their way into prosperity, the future of America will look more like the old world rather than the new world.

‚ÄúThat‚Äôs the dream of the far Left, not the American dream,‚ÄĚ she said.

Never before in American history has there ever been such a division between how the president views the ‚Äústate of the union‚ÄĚ and how average Americans view the ‚Äústate of the union,‚ÄĚ she said.

In history of our republic between how our own president sees Americans see state of union and Americans he’s elected to serve see state of the union, Palin told audience members.

Unlike President Obama, Republicans are looking to free markets and to long-standing constitutional principles, she said.

‚ÄúHis plan isn‚Äôt winning the future, it‚Äôs losing the country.‚ÄĚ

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Video from TheRightScoop.com

CPAC and Sarah Palin mark a turn to unity

 

A vintage fiery performance: Palin told delegates we'll keep our guns, God and Constitution, and Obama can keep the change.

The most remarkable event of today’s CPAC was Sarah Palin endorsing unity. Instead of showing her support for any one candidate, she called for unity, saying that whoever the nominee is the GOP must defeat Obama. Whoever the nominee is conservatives must work together, she told an ecstatic audience, and the nation will have a true conservative in the White House.

The unity message, great!

It followed the announcement that Mitt Romney had narrowly won the CPAC Straw Poll, following his mission to the conference to prove his conservative credentials. It seems it may be mission accomplished. Certainly Romney will be feeling a lot better about his appeal to the conservative base after today.

The other remarkable performance came from the ever-popular Daniel Hannan, British Member for the European Parliament. Warning America not to go down the European road, he was amazed that while Europe is driving off the cliff they can see America in their rear-view mirror and overtaking them!

After his talk, I had a good conversation with him, as we walked through the hotel, including a detour through the kitchens! I asked him if he endorsed any candidates? He, just a little coyly, suggested it was difficult to choose, but stressed it was important for the party to unite behind a candidate and get Obama, who earlier in the day John Bolton called the ‚Äúfirst post-American President‚ÄĚ, out of the White House.

Daniel Hannan warns America not to follow Europe down a path and off a cliff

Hannan also urged me to write that the GOP must stop having so many debates, as it is only serving to divide the party. He also said Republicans need to focus on the budget, not all the side issues that divide conservatives. With that he headed for the airport, though many didn’t want him to leave and asked if he could be made an honorary American instead.

This has been an important few days for conservatives, and may finally signal the road to unity. Romney should start to pull firmly into the lead, and though Santorum and Gingrich will no doubt continue, they will see their numbers dwindle.

The New York Times carried a report ahead of Sarah Palin’s speech that she didn’t think a brokered RNC would be a problem. This is just a liberal wet dream. The reality is, Sarah Palin has signalled this important moment, and shown that there is less stomach for infighting.

I picked up my media credentials on Thursday at CPAC fearful of a divided party that would succeed only in rolling out the red carpet for President Obama. After three days, I happily left making my way through the handful of sorry-looking OWS protesters feeling that I can see November from here.

Sarah Palin Endorses Newt Gingrich……to Keep the Race Going, Not for President

Bookmark and Share   During a Tuesday night Fox News interview,  Sarah Palin told South Carolinians that if she were voting in their primary this Saturday, she would cast her ballot for Newt Gingrich. [see the interview below this post]

Technically, that is an endorsement, but it was qualified by her desire to see Newt win in South Carolina expressly for the purpose of seeing that Republicans continue to vet the candidates.  According to Palin;

‚ÄúMore debates, more vetting of candidates because we know the mistake made in our country four years ago was having a candidate that was not vetted, to the degree that he should have been,‚ÄĚ.

She added;

‚ÄúI want to see that taking place this time because America is on this precipice ‚ÄĒ it‚Äôs that important. We need this process to continue.”

On January 9th, Sarah Palin’s husband Todd, came out and directly endorsed Newt when he released¬†the following statement;

“Newt Gingrich is a true leader, which he has proven not only since the beginning of his campaign, but throughout his career,‚ÄĚ

Not long after that, Palin had offered great praise for Rick Santorum and his consistent conservatism.   For a while it looked like she might be leading towards a full-fledged endorsement of Santorum.  But that was not the case.

This recent quasi-endorsement of Gingrich though, is the first time¬†that Sarah Palin¬†has actually suggested that a group of voters come out to vote for a specific¬†Republican presidential candidate.¬† But it is clear that her call to arms in South Carolina was merely meant to produce a result that would force the Republican nomination to forge ahead and continue testing the candidates.¬† As a Palinite, I found myself appreciating Palin’s sentiments.¬† It is one which I myself¬†expressed when early on¬†in the process, I participated as a spectator who was giving all the candidates a chance to woo me over.¬† While I had my favorites, I did not want to merely give my endorsement away.¬† I wanted the person I endorse to earn the nomination and prove themselves.¬† Since then,¬† I don’t know if any candidate has really earned my endorsement, but based upon the issues and the approach that I have heard each of¬†the candidates claim they would take¬†reagrding those issues, I did endorse Newt Gingrich.¬† However, I have no problem with him still having to work for the nomination and truly earn it.

Palin is right.¬† In the end, the tougher this process, the better our candidate will be…..whoever it is.

Meanwhile, the Gingrich campaign did not waste a moment in exploiting the qualified endorsement by Palin.  Gingrich campaign spokesman R.C. Hammond told NBC News .

‚ÄúWe think its a pretty darn clear call to arms,‚ÄĚ

Newt’s camp believes it is a call to arms directed at conservatives who many believe can derail the nomination hopes of Mitt Romney if only they got behind one of his opponents instead of splitting their support between three alternatives to Romney.¬† In the case of Gingrich, he believes that he is the conservative that has the best shot to consolidate that conservative support to win the nomination and then defeat President Obama.

Shortly after Palin’s pitch to South Carolina voters, Gingrich posted the following twitter message;

Newt Gingrich

  newtgingrich  Newt Gingrich

Thanks @sarahpalinusa for throwing your support my way in the South Carolina primary. Watch the Video:  http://youtu.be/xNgRHqvY1z0  #withnewt

Over at Conservatives4Palin.com, one of the leading web-based, pro-Palin organizing networks, some Palinistas¬†were not ready to¬†accept¬†that Palin still won’t be¬†running for President herself in 2012 and were¬†quite adamant about the fact that Sarah’s statement was not endorsement of Newt but rather an endorsement of the process continuing.¬† And some even suggested that she wants it to continue because Palin may still actually ¬†jump in and run;

According to Min Max

“Look, Romney is NOT the right candidate but neither is Newt. Non of them come even close and if you think a debate between Newt and BO would be something to watch, you ain’t seen nuttin’ yet.¬† Sarah will rip him apart with a wink and a smile.¬†¬† Friends, you absolutely HAVE to hold the line!”

One C4P participant wrote;

“The longer it takes, the longer she can wait to make her move into the race to take the rest of the delegates in the rest of the states. It is a beautiful strategy.”¬†¬†¬†

Others¬†were realistic and excepted Palin’s statement for what she actually meant.

tjd4life for wrote:

“She is right! This thing has to continue. We don’t need a coronation right now. If you live in SC, the first thing I would tell you to is vote your conscience. Always do that, but if you want your vote to count and you are in the non-Romney camp, you have to vote for Newt. No if’s and’s or but’s.”

Other comments from Palin supporters applauded her positioning of Newt as the candidate to beat Romney with.

friskyness responded to Palin’s move this way;

“Newt is the only one that can beat Obama!¬† His debates are spectacular! Our goal is to oust Obama. We can’t do it with mushy Romney!”¬†¬†

What will be quite interesting here, is the speed in which things can change if Newt does actually win South Carolina.

Although Mitt Romney will still be the likely nominee, if Gingrich does upset Mitt in the Palemtto State primary, the political world will most certainly be talking about the Republican nomination contest being a totally new and different race.  And it will be.  But until Newt can capitalize on his support and momentum it will all be for naught.

Right now Newt Gingrich needs a clear message and theme that can connect with voters and allow them to better relate to him.  He needs to show that he is a steady political hand who is not vulnerable to the mistakes of political novices.  Establishing an effective campaign organization that controls the story and message, while raising the money, doing the proper opposition research, and developing rapid response damage control teams, will all help Newt exploit any success that he could have from a surprise win in South Carolina.  However, the former Speaker of the House is still not convinced that the most basic aspects of conventional campaign management apply to him.

As someone who endorsed Newt for President, I hope he is right.¬†¬† Unfortunately, I just don’t think he is and while Sarah Palin’s praise of him will help, Newt still does not realize how much his lack of discipline is failing to maximize the benefits that¬†Palins’s words afford him.

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Iowa Recap

Romney won, Bachmann quit, Santorum is rising, Paul is maintaining his status quo, Newt is struggling, Perry has faith, and Huntsman….who?¬† Iowa recapped:

Mitt Romney

Mitt Romney won in Iowa. Honestly?¬† No big deal. Romney will gain momentum from winning, but when people look at the numbers they will realize that if Michele Bachmann wasn’t in the race, Santorum would have won comfortably.¬† If Santorum wasn’t in the race, Newt and Perry probably would have both outpolled Romney.¬† In Iowa, he got his fiscal conservatives and the social conservatives split the rest.¬† But it’s not all bad for Romney.¬† In fact, while Romney may have come to a predictable finish, he won by choosing his opponent.¬† Gingrich was a shoe in to win Iowa barely more than a week ago.¬† Instead, Santorum now has the social conservative momentum and Romney should easily win New Hampshire and could win South Carolina.¬† So Romney’s win is:

Good for: Mitt Romney, Rick Santorum      Bad for: Newt Gingrich, Rick Perry, Ron Paul, Michele Bachmann, Jon Huntsman

Rick Santorum

A shocking surprise to some, a mild surprise for others, Santorum has Huckabee’d Iowa.¬† With a great ground game, time, hard work, and the luck of Newt Gingrich being destroyed by Romney, Inc, Michele Bachmann, and the Republican establishment, Santorum is finally getting his shot at vetting.¬† Already, he is being called a war monger and “big government conservative”.¬† But Santorum’s rise may be too late in the game for a vetting process to destroy him.¬† Many social conservatives have been waiting for a reason to believe that Santorum could win.¬† From the day he started running the narrative has been that Santorum is simply unelectable on a national scale.¬† So, Santorum’s second place finish is:

Good for: Rick Santorum, Mitt Romney   Bad for: Ron Paul, Newt Gingrich, Rick Perry, Michele Bachmann

Ron Paul

Paul’s third place finish is certainly not what the Paul camp was hoping for.¬† Ron Paul came very close to breaking free from his libertarian ceiling, but in the end social conservatives showed they would rather take a gamble on the unvetted Rick Santorum instead of giving Ron Paul the ‘turn’ he was starting to experience.¬† Paul has been passed over as the anti-Romney.¬† He may be able to turn things around in New Hampshire, but a third or worse finish in New Hampshire should be a clear signal to Paul that the revolution is over.¬† Paul’s third place finish is:

Good for: Rick Santorum, Mitt Romney  Bad for: Ron Paul, Newt Gingrich

Newt Gingrich

Even if Rick Perry and Michele Bachmann dropped out of the race and split their votes on a pro rata share, Newt would still not have passed Mitt Romney.¬† The fact is, Romney ran an incredible, strategic dismantling of Newt without even breaking a sweat.¬† In the meantime, Newt refused to go dishonestly negative, but managed plenty of headlines saying “Newt Goes on the Attack”.¬† Newt is realizing in time for New Hampshire, he won’t win with a positive campaign.¬† Can he win with a negative one?¬† New Hampshire will probably go Romney’s way.¬† But Newt needs South Carolina.¬† Without South Carolina, he won’t have the momentum to take Florida and Florida is the key.¬† So Newt’s dismal fourth place finish is:

Good for: Mitt Romney   Bad for: Newt Gingrich, Michele Bachmann

Rick Perry

Perry’s fifth place win got him to re-think his campaign.¬† But with Michele Bachmann choosing to drop out, perhaps Perry thinks he still has hope.¬† He should have decided to stay in Texas.¬† Perry’s placing is:

Bad for: Rick Perry

Michele Bachmann

Bachmann barely registered.  Iowa was her last hope to connect with social and evangelical conservatives and she failed.  Fortunately, this provided the wake up call she needed to see the end of the race.  Bachmann has decided to drop out of the race and return to Minnesota.  Unfortunately for Bachmann, she has not built the cult following that Sarah Palin did.  Hopefully she will continue to be a strong voice for the TEA party.

Good for: Rick Santorum, Newt Gingrich, Rick Perry   Bad for: Michele Bachmann, Ron Paul, Mitt Romney

As for the other contender, Jon Huntsman’s disrespectful snub of Iowa, especially in light of Romney’s stronger finish in the state and momentum, seals Huntsman’s irrelevancy.

Sarah Palin Gives Rick Santorum Hope in Iowa

Bookmark and Share  Yesterday, White House 2012 was preparing a post about how in Iowa, Rick Santorum and Michele Bachmann may throw a monkey wrench in to the plans of any perceived frontrunners. The piece will still soon be posted but before we had the chance to do that, Sarah Palin coincidentally broached the same topic.

Yesterday during an interview with Sean Hannity, Governor Palin pointed to Pennsylvania Rick Santorum as the type of consistent conservative who consistently delivers a conservative message that people will start considering in the next 32 days [see the video below this post] .

Not¬†long after Palin’s remarks, Santorum used her comments as a fundraising tool in an email supporters .

Santorum’s email starts of with a quote about him from Palin during last night’s¬† interview:

‚ÄúIf voters start shifting gears and deciding they want ideological consistency, then they‚Äôre going to start paying attention to say, Rick Santorum.‚ÄĚ

The letter goes on to say;

Former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin said that last night on Fox News about me, and I wanted to make sure you heard about it as well.

I am grateful for those kind words from a strong conservative like Governor Palin.  And it’s becoming more clear that other conservatives are starting to rally around our message of passionate conservatism.

Later today, influential Iowa evangelical leader Pastor Cary Gordon will announce his support for me via text message to 788,000 registered voters in Iowa.¬† Pastor Gordon, a strong supporter of traditional marriage, is pastor of Sioux City, Iowa’s Cornerstone Church and president of PeaceMakers Institute.¬† This influential endorsement comes on the heels of the endorsement by leading New Hampshire conservative, Karen Testerman.

With just one month to go until the Iowa caucuses, conservatives are coming to the same conclusion:  We need to find a conservative alternative to the current frontrunners, and I have the record and passion to be that alternative. 

Palin’s positive¬†assessment of him is probably one of the greatest breaks that his campaign has received.¬† In fact it is probably the only break his campaign has been given.¬† And as such, he would be wise to milk it for all its worth, and in many ways, it’s worth a lot.

With statements about Santorum such as,¬†‚ÄúHe‚Äôs been consistent in wanting to protect the most vulnerable and the sanctity of life, he‚Äôs been consistent in saying we need to slash the federal income tax,‚ÄĚ Sarah Palin, the queen of the TEA movement, just gave a wink and a nod to her supporters that indicated their support for Santorum has her stamp of approval.

Meanwhile, the person probably hurt by Palin’s tapping of Santorum, is Michele Bachmann.

If Palin is the queen of the TEA movement, Bachmann¬†is the heiress to the throne¬†and by overlooking her and¬†pointing to Santorum, Palin essentially shifted the TEA Party’s attention away from Bachmann and put it on Rick.¬†

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Draft Palin for President Ad That Will Air in Iowa is Released. Now What?

Bookmark and Share   Sarah Palin fans are still holding out hope for a Palin presidency in 2012 and one of her largest fan clubs, Conservatives4Palin are now debuting a television ad that they will be airing in the first in the nation caucus state of Iowa.

 The ad will air in the Sioux City, Iowa  market and the target date for the ad for its initial airing is Tuesday or Wednesday of this week.

Last week C4P posted the following statement of thanks to financial donors who made the airing of the ad possible;

“Your contributions have made it possible for us to run the Palin reconsider television ad next week in the Sioux City, Iowa market. Thanks to everyone who chipped in to make it possible.”

They added;

“What we do next after the television ad goes up is a more difficult question. If this ad is able to build some momentum for the Governor, the best way to keep that momentum going may be¬†to commission a national GOP primary poll that includes the Governor as one of the options. We‚Äôll see if it‚Äôs possible given our resources. We‚Äôre open to other ideas but the greatest challenge may be that time is running short for her to reconsider.”

Palin herself has not yet offered any opinion of the groups attempts to make herreconsider her earlier decision  to not run but even if Palin were to reverse her earlier decision, getting on the ballot in most of the primary states will be impossible.   Most state deadlines for ballot access passed in late October.  So if for some reason she was to try to run in the primary, Pali would have to do so as a write-in candidate and that will be twice as hard as a normal campaign.  In addition to trying to win on the issues and with a creative, well organized, campaign strategy, Palin would also have to run an educational campaign that would instruct voters on how to write-her name in on the ballot.  And because of different systems and rules, those instructions are different not only in the various sates, but in many cases, they are different even in the various counties of the various states. 

But beyond  an attempted write-in candidacy in the Republican presidential primaries, is the possibility of a third party presidential candidacy.  For that, Palin still has the time needed to get the signatures and fulfill the different requirements necessary to get on the ballots of the individual states.  That too is not easy, but at this point in time, it is more realistic than a run for the Republican presidential nomination. 

However, if Palin were to dare make an independent run for President, like Teddy Roosevelt in 1912, she would be more likely to cause the Democrat to win than get herself elected. 

Still, the drive behind this “Reconsider” movement is there and it is probably stronger than any support movement behind any of the eight major candidates currently running for the Republican presidential nomination.¬† At the moment there is even a Draft Sarah Palin Facebook page, Draft Sarah Palin website, and dozens of¬† similar smaller, state and local groups.

Now that some of the most aggressive moves to draft Sarah Palin are being taken with this new ad,  the question becomes, where do they go from here.?

According to Conservatives4Palin that is “a more difficult question” but they say;

“If this ad is able to build some momentum for the Governor, the best way to keep that momentum going may be¬†to commission a national GOP primary poll that includes the Governor as one of the options. We‚Äôll see if it‚Äôs possible given our resources. We‚Äôre open to other ideas but the greatest challenge may be that time is running short for her to reconsider.”

How Palin reacts to the ad and how much steam the effort builds has yet to be seen, but while many Palin fans, including myself, would have liked to see Sarah go for it, many others, again like myself, believe that her decision should respected and in my case, can not be reversed in time to run in 2012.

Adrienne Ross, an active player in C4P has herself made that case on C4P.

In an editorial to Palin fans who have become active players in this “Reconsider” movement, Ross writes;

“Conservatives4Palin¬†has been fortunate enough to be¬†considered among the cream of the crop in all things Palin. With that status comes a certain responsibility to act responsibly. As far as I‚Äôm concerned, any decision to engage in never-ending Make Palin Reconsider efforts is not acting responsibly, not on the Governor‚Äôs behalf and not on behalf of the people who have found us worthy of their time and attention. Therefore, I deem¬†such efforts to be¬†a violation of the trust placed in us.”

She adds;

¬†I have great appreciation for the many people who have invested themselves into their support of Governor Palin. I trust that as we observe¬†the roads God takes her‚Äďor doesn‚Äôt take her‚Äďdown, we will honor her decisions, we will respect one another even when we passionately disagree, and we will continue to be for her. For me, part of that process is taking her at her word, focusing on what I can do to promote what she‚Äôs committed to now, and watching the mighty impact we will make. Now, that is the kind of earthquake that will do her proud.

I believe it was difficult for Adrienne Ross to take such a strong stance in opposition to the enthusiasm¬†of her usually like-minded friends.¬† She, like I, share their enthusiasm, faith, trust, and belief in Sarah Palin, her judgement, her instincts, and her abilities.¬† But like Adrienne Ross, I too believe that when calling upon that judgement, those instincts, and that ability, becomes akin to pulling teeth, that is the time when you¬†when you must let things fall where they may.¬† And it is important for Palin fans to remember that ¬†they should¬†not give up on the cause.¬† The fight continues, we just have to use different weapons and by actively participating in¬†the Republican presidential nomination, they can help us pick the strongest weapon available for us to fight with in next November’s election.¬† And you can bet that Sarah Palin will be there to help us.

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Is It Too Late?

Some very wise political analysts wrote that things have changed since 1992 when Bill Clinton got into the race late and managed to win. The need to build a national campaign network, raise money and meet the demands of 24/7 campaigning without making a single mistake are hurdles that put late joiners at a serious disadvantage. Mitt Romney has been raising money, performing in debates, bringing in endorsements and satisfying local political committees necessary for the early primaries. He can do it because he has a network in place to do most of the work for him, leaving him free to focus on interviews, debate prep and meeting with the big donors. Gov. Perry, as a relative late-comer, is floundering by comparison. The overwhelming demands on his time in places he has no network and from people with whom he has no intermediaries have strained his ability to focus on improving his debate abilities. His big lead has slumped and he is at risk of simply fading away. By the time he gets a full national campaign in place, his mistakes may have made him irrelevant. Soon Herman Cain will face the same problems. These were the reasons various pundits said Christie should definitely not get into the race. It was too late, even if he had changed his mind.

But is it too late? Being in early and ahead in the polls is no guarantee of success. The pages of campaign history are littered with the failed campaigns of big names, with national support and early planning. Perhaps the right question is not whether it is too late, but rather is it too soon? It is clearly too late to get into the race and compete against the established campaigns. There is not enough time to get a national campaign up and running effectively between now and the early primaries while simultaneously engaging in frequent televised debates. But, that doesn’t mean it is too late to get into the race at all. It just means it is too early to be a late entrant.

Look at the poll numbers Perry pulled in just due to hype. Christie saw the same, although he ended up not running. Cain made one great debate appearance and his numbers shot up. However, Perry and Cain now have to find a way to sustain that popularity for months before it can translate into votes. Just ask Michele Bachmann how that straw poll victory is treating her now. Frankly, getting in early opens the door to constant attacks by a vengeful media and the inevitable mistake that will get blown out of proportion just to have a news story to report. Romney and Paul are somewhat immune to these problems because they were already attacked in the last election and there just isn’t much new to attack them with. Their names are already out there and they have a base of support in place, so they don’t need the big performance to gain a position in the rankings. They just need to not trip over themselves and wait it out until the primaries get closer and they start spending the piles of money they built up. Everyone else has an uphill battle and has as much to fear from sudden success as from a major mistake.

With so many primaries happening so close together and so early in the year, a late entrant could ride the newcomer media hype to a handful of early victories. Then, by absorbing the staff and network of candidates who are forced to drop out, basically walk into a national campaign with enough time remaining to still effectively raise funds for the general election in November. This would not work for just any random candidate, but there are some big names who stayed out who have the skills, policy knowledge and connections to pull it off if they time it right. A December entry could steal the nomination.

I’m not saying that is what should happen, will happen or would be desirable. It is just that the old logic that there is a time after which a new campaign cannot succeed is very likely no longer valid. Like it or not, the media does manipulate public opinion in elections. Playing the media against itself may be a better strategy than traditional campaigning. After all, then Sen. Obama had nothing to offer on policy or experience, but the media carried him to victory. The media may be generally against conservatives, but they just can’t help themselves from hyping anyone new. Even if the hype is full of negatives, it raises the recognition of that candidate and usually results in a rise in the polls – at least until the hype dies down or the candidate withers under the spotlight.

A well-timed late entrant would face significant challenges, but could play the media hype into a surge in the polls just in time for it to translate into real votes. I’m sure Rick Perry wishes the early primaries had been in August when he was the talk of the town. Had they been, he’d probably be in this against Romney alone instead of falling back into a still crowded pack. The lack of consensus on a candidate and the infighting between them during the debates could be justification enough for one of the big names that decided not to run many months ago (when Obama looked stronger) to reconsider and come in to ‘unify the party against Obama’. While such an entry would never work if it came this month or in November, it could potentially play in December – especially if the field doesn’t slim down between now and then.

Second Thoughts?Who could pull off this last minute capture of the early primaries and the nomination? There are two that immediately come to mind: Haley Barbour and Mitch Daniels. Conversely, two names that couldn’t pull it off are Sarah Palin and Chris Christie. They both bowed out too recently to change their minds so soon. Barbour and Daniels could be ‘drafted’ back in if they plan such an effort. They are not the only ones, but the ones with the best name recognition (Daniels) and existing connections (Barbour) to generate the necessary media hype and channel it into sudden victories. With the voters still divided, no real excitement for the ‘inevitable candidate’ and a compressed primary schedule, there may never be a better time than December to capture the race without having to face the withering pressure of public scrutiny of every minor decision they ever made. With so many of the big names that got out early still sitting silently and not endorsing anyone, one has to wonder if they are pondering the same thing I am. But, only one could pull it off. If two jumped in, they would both lose. If Barbour and Daniels go to dinner, Romney should start to worry.

Palin Will Still Be the Cause for the Next Big Media Driven Maelstrom of the Election

Bookmark and Share A day after Governor Sarah Palin made it official that she would not run for President in 2012, the leaders of Team Sarah sent out the following email to their extensive list of supporters.

Team,

We’re not retreating, we’re  reloading!

While the announcement that Governor Sarah Palin will not be seeking the 2012 GOP nomination for the office of President of the United States came as a surprise and disappointment to many,¬† let‚Äôs not forget that we have all been called to ‚Äúfight like a girl‚ÄĚ in an effort to restore our country.¬† It‚Äôs a call to stand with Governor Palin and to continue fighting for the conservative values of smaller government, free markets, life, and family.

Team Sarah members will continue to march towards the 2012 elections advancing the values and principles that Sarah Palin represents in the political process.  We will join Governor Palin in the fight to secure many victories for commonsense constitutional conservatives at all levels of government.

The email seems to be representative of the sentiments possessed by most Palinistas.  While they are disappointed by the fact that there is no chance she will become President in 2012, they are not disappointed in her.

Palin’s supporters appreciate her seeming lack of ambition to hold political office.¬† That is why they understood the thinking behind her sacrificing the second half of her only term as Governor Alaska and did not hold it against her.¬† They understood that the political firestorm that came with the liberal assault upon her was going to make it easier for her successor to advance the agenda that she set, faster and further.¬† Palin’s lack of political ambition is what attracts most people to her.¬† They understand that her opinions and words are not driven by the political motives which are usually behind the¬† words and policies of your average politician.

That understanding and the enormous number of people who support Palin for her ability to articulate what they feel and think, and her desire to be honest and blunt about those sentiments, is the same understanding which gave birth to the TEA movement.  That is why for many, the two go hand in hand.  It is why Palin is a darling of the TEA movement.

It is also why Palin’s decision not to run, is likely to have as much of an effect on who will be the next Republican nominee, as she would have had if she decided to run for the nomination herself..

That is why pretty soon, the news will be dominated by another topic.

With names like Daniels, Barbour, Ryan, Christie, and Palin definitely¬†out of the race, the endless speculation about who is running which kept many from getting behind any of the actual¬†declared candidates, has finally stopped.¬† There is little talk about who can jump in and change the complexion of¬†the race.¬† But with the front loading¬†of the primary and caucuses actually forcing the first votes in the nomination process to begin taking place in as few as 12 weeks from now, the next media prompted maelstrom¬†will be who Palin is endorsing.¬† There will be a similar¬†media focus on who New Jersey Governor Chris¬†Christie also endorses, but ironically and quite figuratively, the Palin endorsement will carry much more weight than Christie’s.¬† Her support of a candidate could open doors for candidates like Romney, Santorum¬†or Gingrich, candidates who desperately need TEA activists to just consider them as viable choices.¬† Candidates like Herman Cain and even Rick Perry don’t need such an opening to the TEA movement.¬† They already have strong support from many sectors within the less spending, less government, more liberty cause.¬† But a leading candidate like Mitt Romney can ill afford Sarah Palin promoting one of his opponents.

That is why Sarah Palin is very likely to be pivotal in the Republican nomination contest. And probably more so in the nomination process than the general election contest where she will probably not be able to change the minds of those supporting or still considering supporting President Obama for reelection.

In the meantime, Palin holds the power to change the course of history.  If she so chooses, she can actually be a determining factor in who the next Republican nominee and subsequently the next President is.  Such an assertion is only made more evident by the above letter from Palin supporters which confirms their desire to stand with Sarah Palin through thick or thin.

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Palin Announces She Is Not Running For President. Catch the Audio and Written Versions of her Decision Here.

Bookmark and ShareWhat Will It Mean To The Existing Field?

What Role Will She Play?

On Tuesday it was New Jersey Governor Chris Christie who dispelled any rumors about his running for President and now on Wednesday, in what can only be called a week that finally allowed the Republican presidential nomination process to focus on the real, not the imagined candidates, former Alaska Governor and vice presidential nominee Sarah Palin put an an end to speculation about her own run for President.

She revealed her decision on Mark Levin’s popular radio talk show.¬† You can¬†listen to the entire interview here.

In an open letter on her SarahPAC website, Governor Palin tells supporters  that she decided not to run because she feels that she can be more effective in playing a decisive role in the election of others who defend the conservative values that she has come to represent.   She also promised to;

‚Äúcontinue driving the discussion for freedom and free markets, including in the race for President where our candidates must embrace immediate action toward energy independence through domestic resource developments of conventional energy sources, along with renewables. We must reduce¬†tax burdens and onerous regulations that kill American industry, and our candidates must always push to minimize government to strengthen the economy and allow the private sector to create jobs.‚ÄĚ

Palin’s announcement now forces a fickle Republican electorate to choose from among the existing field of assembled candidates.   As of yesterday, a Quinnipiac poll of Republican primary voters indicated that Mitt Romney had a majority of support, while Herman Cain was
quickly rising and Texas Governor Rick Perry was dropping fast.  The next important name and number to appear in the poll was Sarah Palin, who before the news that she was not running, came in fourth place with with 9%.

Quinnipiac National Republican Primary

(Numbers in parentheses indicate previous poll results)

  • Romney ‚Äď 22% (18)
  • Cain ‚Äď 17% (5)
  • Perry ‚Äď 14% (24)
  • Palin ‚Äď 9% (11)
  • Gingrich ‚Äď 8% (3)
  • Paul ‚Äď 6% (9)
  • Bachmann¬†‚Äď 3% (10)
  • Santorum ‚Äď 3% (1)
  • Huntsman ‚Äď 1% (1)

Now, combining the significant number of Republican voters hoping Palin would run with the existing 17% who are already undecided, the total percentage of the G.O.P. electorate that is up for grabs is 26% or more than 1/4th of the G.O.P. electorate.

This in many ways keeps this a wide open race.  That is especially the case considering that many more voters who have stated support for one candidate or another have also indicated that their support is soft, and can easily be won over by one of the other Republicans in the field.

At the moment, it looks like the name that has the most to gain from Palin’s announcement is Herman Cain.  As indicated in a WH12 post by IkeFriday, Palin’s social conservative and TEA movement support is now likely to go Cain’s way.  Palin’s announcement that she is not running happened at the most opportune time for Cain.  With the tide shifting his way ever since the Florida Straw Poll, the voters left hanging by Palin can easily be swept up in that tide.

As for Palin herself, her decision was most definitely the right one for her.  Palin has been thriving as a cheerleader for the anti-establishment wing of the conservative electorate.  She has raised and made money and advanced the cause.  By keeping herself out of the race, she allows herself to remain a force to contend with.  As we have seen with Rick Perry and others, once one becomes a candidate, maintaining their superstar image is much harder to do.  Palin though has the opportunity to keep her star burning brighter for  another day.

Meanwhile, much of¬† Palin’s fan base is still trying to digest the decision and absorb what obvious disappointment they feel.¬† While many of the pro-Palin websites and blogs have not yet even released statements, one leading site, Conservatives 4 Palin, did have a post from Adrienne Ross who wrote;

“The Governor Palin I have supported these past three years, the one I‚Äôve been privileged to come to know, is indeed the real deal, and so for tonight I will leave it at this: I continue to stand with Governor Palin.”

While many Palin supporters will undoubtedly be disappointed with the decision, it does not look like they will be disappointed by her.  As such, her role in the 2012 election could be critical to who the G.O.P. nominates.  But Palin supporters can not give up the hope that we can win back the White House and to do so with a candidate who represents all the values which Sarah does.  Depressed Palin supporters must now engage the existing candidates.  They must make sure that all the candidates are talking the issues we want and proposing the solutions we want.  If we aggressively engage them in such a way, they will have no choice to be run on our agenda.  And once they are there, we will have the opportunity to decide which one can advance our values and our cause successfully.  That is what elections are for.  Now that we know we have no more players in the game, we must play with the hand we  have been dealt.  It is time for voters to stop focussing on who it could have been and start focussing on who it will be.

With only three months to go before the primaries¬†and caucuses begin in earnest, there is much to be¬†done by both the candidates and the voters.¬†¬† The candidates now have no reason to hold back any strategies that would have been used¬†if Christie¬†or Palin ran.¬† They are now free to run their campaigns based on what we know, not what¬†we don’t know.¬† In other words, it is time for the candidates to start acting presidential.¬† Now we need the Republican candidates to show the nation¬† that beyond being the Party of limited government, we are also the Party of ideas.¬† And our candidates must begin to release bold new ideas to solve our old problems.¬† The candidate that can do that, will give the anti-establishment and TEA movement wings of the G.O.P., a reason for them to at least be willing to look at the candidacies of others such as Romney, Santorum and Gingrich.

Now that the Barnum & Bailey’s Three Ring Circus of candidates has closed up the tent, and last two candidates have pulled out of that mini sized clown car that was crowded¬†with as many as 12 or more other candidates , we can get to business.¬† The real business, not this business of waiting on someone to¬†get fired¬†up for the job, or have a need to¬†kiss¬†¬†The Donald’s ring.¬† Now is the time for each candidate¬†to prove they have solid plans for expanding¬†our economy by unleashing the free market and reining¬†in big government.¬† We need candidates who will offer plans that seek to cut spending, reform government, and do away with the arcane American tax system that is turning our nation into a consumer economy that buys from outside of our borders and sells very little outside of borders.

In addition to a leader who will unleash the American entrepreneurial spirit, one who will be a world leader.  A leader who can take back the title of leader of the free world from the man who has held it since 2009,  It was in September of 2009 that both President Obama and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu addressed the Uniter Nations.  After those two speeches, it became clear that Netanyahu was the true free leader of the world, not our American President.  In light of that, our nation requires a firm hand, articulate mouth, and open ear.  They will need that articulate mouth to make clear what is right and what is wrong, who are friends, who are foes, and how we can all try to all come be friends.   They need ears that will listen to the responses to such dialogue and when necessary, use their firm hand to slap down those who seek to abridge  the rights of others and jeopardize the lives of the innocent.  We need a clear American foreign policy that starts at securing our international borders and then stands side by side with our friends in Canada, Israel, Great Britain, Spain, Italy,Poland, Australia, and many other true allies of peace.

Truth be told, if given the chance, anyone of a number of existing candidates¬†have the capacity¬†to be¬†such leaders.¬† There’s Perry, Romney, Gingrich, Cain, Santorum¬†and possibly even Michele Bachmann.¬† We just need to give them a chance.¬† All of them.

Important at this juncture though is Sarah Palin.  While Mitt Romney has been a soft but steady frontrunner for the nomination, his appeal among TEA movement and anti-establishment types, has been dismal.  It has been a major reason for his inability to cinch the nomination as early as he could have.   TEA movement voters are too leery of Romney for what they see as an indication of a big government mentality demonstrated by his creation and passage of RomneyCare in Massachusetts.    If Sarah Palin happened to throw her support behind Mitt, she could help him at least break the ice with those voters.  If not, Herman Cain could go much further than many expect.

No¬† matter what, the first week of October, 2011 will become the official start of the presidential election.¬† We now know who we have to choose from and it it¬†is time for all of us to focus on the big picture here.¬† Do the candidates want to play it safe so that they can simply sail on by and defeat a¬†badly wounded President Obama?¬† Or is there a candidate¬†who is willing to step forward with bold changes and bold visions and take risks, thereby demonstrating that if elected, they will be more than just some caretaker of the White House.¬†¬† No, they must prove themselves to be¬†a leader who reforms government, restores power to the states, get our fiscal house in order, and ensure our national security and doesn’t do business as usual.

Many of us Palin supporters believe that Sarah would have been that bold leader, but with her out, the mantle seems to be passing in to the hands of Herman Cain.   The only way for Mitt Romney to prevent that from happening is if he starts thinking outside of the Washington, D.C. political box he lives in and demonstrates that instead of playing by the rules of the old political game, he intends to rewrite them and to do so in every way from our tax code, to the way Washington does business.

In the meantime, each of the declared candidates have better¬†be on their A games.¬† For with Sarah Palin and Chris¬†Christie¬†out there as free agents, none of the candidates’¬†running for the nomination can afford to be¬†on the wrong side of their endorsements.

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Click on the Image of the SarahPAC Homepage to read the actual letter to her supporters

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The Field Is Set: And Herman Cain Could Win

Sarah Palin has now announced she will not be running.¬† It appears the 2012 GOP Primary is ready to kick off.¬† So you heard it here first: barring a major disqualifying gaffe, Herman Cain will win the 2012 primary.¬† Here’s why.

Cain passes on the right to pull even with Romney

Ok, seriously.¬† No one knows at this point how this¬† is going to go down.¬† Candidates surge and fall, as Rick Perry has proven.¬† I don’t really know that Herman Cain is going to win the primary.¬† But he does have a clear path to victory.¬† Right now it is his race to give up.

But wait, isn’t Romney leading the polls??¬† Yes, but as I pointed out in my last blog Romney’s majority is an illusion caused by a split vote among social, TEA party candidates.¬† As Perry continues to fade and Cain continues to pick up his supporters, you will see more polls like the most recent CBS poll that shows Cain and Romney tied.¬† Perry’s demise is all upside for Cain while Romney maintains his solid base of support.

So why Cain?¬† Why didn’t Bachmann, Gingrich, or Santorum gain any momentum from Perry’s fall?¬† Perry dropped 11 points in this CBS poll while Cain jumped 12 points.¬† Gingrich and Santorum both got small bumps, but are still considered unelectable and still cannot shake their baggage from the last 20 years.¬† Santorum continues to come across as an unelectable champion of family values with a support base that loves what he says and believes but won’t vote for him because they’d rather have Obama gone than lose with the most socially conservative candidate on the stage.¬† For Gingrich, conservatives have already written the USA Today, Time Magazine and New York Times headlines in their heads about his failed marriages, hypocrisy in the Clinton impeachment, global warming commercials with Nancy Pelosi, and other things from his decades in the spotlight.

Bachmann, with a relatively small public history, is a different story.¬† Although her message, naivete on some issues, and ability to stir a TEA party crowd mirror Herman Cain, she somehow comes across differently.¬†¬† While Herman Cain gets away with announcing that no future President will raise the rates on his 999 plan, Bachmann promises $2 a gallon gas and becomes the laughing stock of the mainstream media and even conservatives.¬† Bachmann tells stories of raising her kids and foster kids and is seen as homely and amateurish.¬† Cain tells stories of him and his brother sneaking drinks from the Whites Only drinking fountain as kids and the story simply tugs at anyone’s heart strings.¬† Bachmann embellishes Perry’s Merck connection and the potential health risks of the HPV vaccine and the media drags her through the coals on it.¬† The media tried to make hay out of Cain’s comment about blacks being brainwashed into voting Democratic and the story was dead on arrival.

Perhaps the greatest difference that speaks to American hearts is that Cain is not bitter or angry.¬† Yes, he is the first to tell us that Obama’s policies are destroying the country.¬† But he does it with an air of policy sincerity, not partisan gamesmanship.¬† Cain doesn’t seem to have a racist bone in his body, to the extent that some Democrats seem to think he is racist against blacks.¬† Cain simply comes across as a successful American who believes in America and in every American’s ability to become whatever they want to be.¬† Cain brings back with sincerity something that politicians have been falsely touting for years: a sincere belief in the American dream and the ability of Americans to achieve it.¬† His simple, Reaganesque faith in the American people and freedom will be enough to preserve his seat as the top social conservative.¬† As other social conservatives call it quits, Cain will continue to swallow up their supporters and surpass Romney.

Just a month ago Cain was barely on the radar.¬† With Perry’s self-destruction and the Florida straw poll, Cain now has the potential momentum to carry him through.¬† The key will be surviving early Romney primary wins until the race narrows to just Cain and Romney.¬† From there he can coast to GOP victory.

Palin Watch: Waiting for Sarah Palin

Bookmark and Share    From our friends at Conservatives4Palin.com, we learn of a very special BlogTalkRadio show that will be packed with Sarah Palin aficionados from throughout the blogosphere, all to discuss how pro-Palin forces should use their time between now and when Sarah announces her plans regarding the 2012 presidential election. 

The show whic takes place today, will be hosted by Roderic Deane, host of¬† the aptly named “Roderic Deane Show”¬†¬† and it airs today, Sunday, September 25, 2011 from 11:00am to¬† 1:00pm Central Time¬† (12:00 pm to 3:00 pm Eastern Standard Time)

Guests will include dedicated Palin activist Peter Singleton, Adrienne Ross¬†of the Sarah Palin Information Blog, Ron Devito of SarahNET, O.P. Ditch of Vets4Palin, and Stephen K. Bannon, the director of the Sarah Palin documentary “The Undefeated”.

According to Roderic Deane, “Sarah Palin told us to keep our powder dry and that we would know soon enough about her plans.”¬†¬† He adds “In the meantime, how do we choose to wile away the in-between?”¬† Sunday’s broadcast entitled “Waiting for Palin” will address that question.

Below you will find the link and to the show and it’s program schedule:

The Roderic Deane Show ‚Äď Live Source:¬†BlogTalkRadio ‚Äď http://www.blogtalkradio.com/rodericdeane/2011/09/25/the-roderic-deane-show

Show Schedule:

Hour 1:    Introduction and monologue (15 minutes)
Peter Singleton¬† ‚Äď Co-Coordinator of the Iowa¬†chapter of O4P¬†(Organize4Palin) (25-30 minutes)
Ron Devito¬†‚Äď US4Palin blogger ‚Äď Coordinator of¬†¬†¬† NY4Palin, an O4P affiliate (15 minutes)
Hour 2:¬†¬†Adrienne Ross ‚Äď MotivationTruth blogger, contributor¬†to the Conservatives4Palin blog (15 minutes)
Stephen K. Bannon ‚Äď Producer and Director of the¬†Sarah Palin documentary ‚ÄúThe Undefeated‚ÄĚ (25-30 minutes), O.P. Ditch ‚Äď Vets4Sarah.net organizer ‚Äď Major¬†participant in the Maryland chapter of O4P (15 minutes)

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Mitt Romney Wants Sarah Palin to Run for President

Bookmark and Share    In an interview with USA Today’s Susan Page, Mitt Romney states that he hopes Sarah Palin runs for President.

According to Romney;

“I think it would be a good thing if she did. She would make the race that much more exciting, bring more people to watch the debates, and I hope she gets in.”

Romney is totally correct on those points.

Palin’s entry into the race would have an incredibly positive affect for Republicans in the 2012 election. It will especially take a lot of ink away from President Obama.

However Romney does not mention the real reason why he would like Palin to run.

With Sarah Palin in the nomination contest, candidates like Rick Perry, Rick Santorum, Michele Bachmann, and Herman Cain, will have their vote totals suppressed by Palin’s candidacy which will absorb much of their support. And while she holds down the vote totals of candidate like Bachmann and Perry, Romney has a good chance to see his establishment conservative vote totals surpass all others and wrap up the nomination earlier rather than later.

Of course, with Palin running, there is also a good chance that Romney will lose…………..to her.

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Palin’s Presidential Write-In Candidacy

Bookmark and Share    Sarah Palin had originally indicated that she would make a decision about a run for President in 2012 by the end of September. Yet in a recent interview with Sean Hannity she seemed to indicate that her decision might not come until November. When asked about her intentions and after being reminded by Sean Hannity that crunch time is approaching soon, Governor Palin responded by stating;

‚ÄúThere is still time, Sean, and I think on both sides of the aisle you‚Äôre going to see people coming and going from this race,‚ÄĚ

According to Palin;

‚ÄúIn the Republican race, in this primary, I think people are still going to be coming and going because there is still time. And I‚Äôm still one of those still considering the time factor.‚ÄĚ

When Hannity asked she didn’t need to make a decision by November, her response was;

“You do, legally you do, because you have start getting your ducks lined up to have your name on these ballots.”

But probably the most telling comment she made during her interview was;

“This is going to be such an unconventional election cycle. … Mark my word, it is going to be an unconventional type of election process.‚ÄĚ

Trying to dissect Palin’s words is probably futile. The former Governor and Vice Presidential nominee is keenly aware that her every word is scrutinized, and from them are extrapolated some wild hypotheses . As such, she quite smartly, and intentionally throws out phrases that keep speculation about her front and center.

But there are several realities that can‚Äôt be denied. The most glaring one is that if Governor Palin intends to run, in order to get her name on the ballot in South Carolina and Florida, she must make her candidacy official and file the proper paperwork within the next 5 ¬Ĺ weeks.

Or does she?

As Palin said in her interview, ‚ÄúMark my word, it is going to be an unconventional type of election process.‚ÄĚ

When it comes to unconventional, Sarah Palin is the quintessential queen of unconvential. No politician is as unconventional as her. And while some suggest that her unpredictable nature makes her an unlikely political leader, it can not be denied that much of Palin’s popularity is based on her unconventional tendencies. It is what makes her the anti-establishment candidate at a time when the popular TEA movement that decided the 2010 midterm elections, is looking for an anti-establishmentarian figure to lead our nation.

So what could Palin have meant when after admitting that by typical legal standards, one would have to make a decision about the presidential election soon, but then suggested that this election is not going to be typical?

It is true that Palin would have to make her candidacy officially within the next several weeks if she intended to have ballot access in the South Carolina and Florida primaries. But it is also true that Palin could still win both those contests without appearing on the ballot. If an aggressive write-in effort were waged, Palin could actually catapult herself into frontrunner status and turn this election on its ear. That would certainly live up to her promise that we are about to enter into ‚Äúan unconventional type of election process.‚ÄĚ

To help make that promise come to fruition, Palin could remain an undeclared presidential candidate and continue to draw thousands to the appearances she she is already making around the country. But with a shifted focus on visits to Iowa, South Carolina, and Florida, and a few additional words, she could be in this race until the Republican national convention concludes.

With all the talk about Republicans not being very confident or excited by any of the existing candidates, Palin can appeal to those dissatisfied Republicans, and TEA movement voters by remaining the anti-establishment Republican. She can simply suggest that if you really want to send a message to Republicans and Democrats alike,¬†we should think outside of the box that the establishment has put us in and do not limit ourselves to the candidates that the two Parties offer. And then all Palin needs to say is……

‚ÄúWrite in the name of the person you want to lead this nation, don‚Äôt just mark off one of the names that the Party machine allows you to choose from‚ÄĚ.

From then on, a movement will be born, a movement that will make writing Sarah Palin’s name in as a symbol of protest and dissatisfaction with the establishment……of both Parties.

In the end, Governor Palin may not be able to win the nomination solely as a write-in candidate, but it could also be that Governor Palin does not intend to be President. Such an effort could simply be an ingenious way for her to insure that her voice is heard and that she continues to influence politics in the way that she intends to………… by keeping the establishment on their toes and preaching the virtues of limited government and bountiful freedom.

Then again, no one can say that Palin would have to remain simply a protest vote. A strong write-in candidacy could actually provide Palin with enough delegates to significantly influence such things as who the next vice presidential nominee is and numerous planks in the Republican Party’s platform. And if this happens to be a very close nomination contest, she could even garner enough delegates to select who the next presidential nominee is.

But that’s not to say that Palin won’t be the next President herself.

If her promise of an unconventional election bears out to mean a Palin write-in candidacy, a strong showing in Florida or South Carolina as a write-in candidate could create enough waves to propel her ahead of the official candidates. If that were to happen, all bets are off.

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The Polarizing Truth. Why Republicans should nominate a divider instead of a unifier.

Bookmark and Share¬†¬†¬† If you’re like many Americans, it’s too early to be thinking about the presidential contest next year. Even if you are aware of some of the candidates running, chances are you’re not glued to the set watching the early debates. Wednesday’s MSNBC sponsored GOP debate was interesting though. I managed to catch a few minutes of it and although I thought Romney was particularly sharp and Rick Perry made a very good case as a solid conservative, it was clear why the current field leaves something to be desired among many in the Republican Party. A former George W. Bush speechwriter said this past weekend that “I don’t think Republicans regard this as a strong field. So there is still talk of people getting in the race.”¬†

Let’s forget all the conventional reasons why there is a lack of excitement from the current cadre of presidential hopefuls. Romney has a problem effectively discussing the failings of Obama-care given his own health care bill in Massachusetts, add to that his 59 point economic plan…59 points? I’m worried there might be a test at the end! Governor Perry, although articulating many strong conservative principles, has the challenge of the latest critique of his Texas job creation efforts through government subsidies and ‘poaching’ from other states; there’s Bachman’s lack of executive experience and Ron Paul’s difficulty overcoming the fringe label among many voters. Gingrich, Huntsman, Santorum and Cain round out the field but lack funding and have thus far failed to light a spark among earlier likely primary voters.¬†

Despite the short-comings of the top-tier, they may all be able to put up an effective fight simply based on the current economy and the President’s own poor performance. Mishandling the economic crisis; the deepening of unemployment and under-employment; vast expanse of government beyond what it palatable for the average taxpayer; and out-of-control debt have all contributed to a general lack of enthusiasm for his re-election in recent polls. That said the GOP is very skilled at the art of snatching defeat out of the jaws of victory.

Only a candidate with the courage to polarize the electorate on the issues and present a stark contrast with the Democratic incumbent will win. We need someone to unapologetically pursue a new policy course focused on economic growth and individual liberty in order to win.

The first step is to challenge the conventional wisdom that our nominee needs to be a conciliator and a unifier instead of a polarizer by looking at the facts of history. There are plenty of successful Presidents who ran in the center and then governed from their partisan corner. Then there are a few who campaigned from a solid partisan position, specifically outlining an enemy, who won decisive victories.

President Reagan, President George W. Bush and President Clinton were highly partisan political leaders creating vehement opposition from the other side. Each had the polarizing effect of a wide gap between the support of members of their own party and the lack of support among voters in the other party as they entered the second year in office. See Poll Results

And each were winners of a second term because they appealed to the core of their own party and created enough momentum to show strong leadership on the issue of the day which won over the average voter who only pays attention at the end.

Obama, like his predecessors, has embraced the role of polarizer-in-chief as he knows that his success is dependent on his aggressive far-left agenda energizing the core of the Democratic base. As long as he offers some hope for a recovery and continues to redistribute your wealth he’s got a good shot at keeping the job.

That same zeal on the side of individual liberty and economic growth is the only way for a Republican challenger to have a chance of unseating this administration. Why is it that the Democrats are unafraid to be aggressive champions of their big government ideology while Republicans more often look for a middle ground thinking that they will appeal to everyone? Democrats like Obama and Clinton understood the value of the base and the importance of ‘dividing and conquering’ the electorate. Bush understood that as well when he stood for re-election in 2004 and certainly President Reagan understood the value when he used divisive terms like ‘welfare queens’ and ‘evil empire’.

Perhaps the best model to view for the upcoming election are the three Presidents who, in addition to causing divisiveness while in office, actually campaigned successfully by exploiting a major issue of the day and defining a clear position outlining the ‘enemy’.

Abraham Lincoln took a strong anti-slavery position and campaigned on stopping its expansion. His position was so strong the half the states threatened to secede if he won and then followed through. 1860 Campaign

Franklin Roosevelt ran a campaign pointing the finger at the ‘economic royalists’ and laid out a very effective populist campaign that defined the enemy as greedy businessmen and changed the country in a direction that set up the great expanse of government today.¬†1936 Speech

Ronald Reagan campaigned as a strong anti-communist defining the foreign enemy effectively and readying the nation to capitalize on their weak economic position. He also effectively defined the domestic enemy as government itself. 1980 Campaign

All of these men faced defining moments in American history, the Civil War, The Great Depression and the Cold War respectively. America is again confronted with a generational crisis that will have a resonating impact for decades to come.

The economic crisis today is beyond the dreadful employment numbers and slow growth. It encompasses the vast expanse of government that has put our nation perilously close to the tipping point of having more Americans taking from the government than paying to sustain it. If that happens and the Democrats feel secure knowing that entitlement benefit receivers outnumber working, taxpaying Americans, don’t expect a conciliatory or unifying tone from the other side.

Current polling shows that the economy and jobs is and will likely continue to be the number one issue heading into the next Presidential election. With nearly one in ten Americans out of work and another nearly one in ten working at a job that is insufficient to sustain a modest family’s standard of living, we’re in serious trouble.

The Democratic solution – which unfortunately has been aided and abetted by some weak, compromising Republicans in Washington – is to spend more of your tax dollars through new ‘stimulus’ spending – err sorry, just saw the White House talking points – it’s now ‘jobs’ spending. We’ve seen the failure of increased government spending under the current administration as well as the last Republican administration. ¬†Not only is this an economically ruinous course to take, but every dollar the government spends to ‘create jobs’ is not wealth created, it’s a dollar redistributed by coercion. Of course the American people are starting to ‘get it’ and the anger that is growing among taxpayers regarding the over-reach and failure of these policies is becoming palpable. Many Americans seem ready to fire the President but simply won’t replace him with someone who will be perceived to do more of the same.

It’s one reason that Governor Christie is talked about as a potential top contender. His brash style, aggressive decision making and willingness to take on tough fights has some Democrats in New Jersey speaking positively about his administration around the water cooler. There hasn’t been a more successful polarizing figure in recent New Jersey history than Governor Christie. He hasn’t taken on the role of chief conciliator with the teachers and public workers unions. He’s stepped up and taken on the role of chief agitator and walked away with several key victories for the taxpayers. Christie’s success is contrary to conventional wisdom about reconciling and being palatable to the other side. He’s a fighter pure and simple and is earning the respect of former foes because of his unapologetic style and aggressive pursuit of solving problems. He’s a straight talker who isn’t posturing for image and acceptance. Instead he’s going for the jugular of those forces that are bankrupting the state and destroying the economic future for the next generation.

If it’s working in a blue state like New Jersey, where Democrats outnumber Republicans by a nearly two-to-one margin, it can certainly work in swing states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, Ohio, Florida and New Hampshire where the registration numbers are much closer. Although a more moderate, conciliatory Republican may fare better in states like New Jersey, we’re likely to lose those states and do worse than expected in the swing states unless we energize the folks who are suffering the most with the current economy. The game plan in 2012 can’t be to earn the respect and admiration of the Democrats who will vote against us anyway. We need to be on the right side of history and champion the free market ideas that are the only way to create a robust and productive economy -and secure our future liberty.

¬†This is not the time to play nice with the side who has levied on us the highest tax and debt burden in our history. This is not the time to play nice with the leaders on the other side whose agenda is not economic growth and freedom but the destruction of the very core of our capitalist system. Big government and debt are the goals of the other side. It’s time to take a stand and choose sides.

¬†Of course Governor Christie has emphatically repeated that he is not going to be a candidate in 2012. Given his track record, I think it’s a safe bet to take him at his word. Without Governor Christie there is only one other Republican leader with the same style of tough talk and conservative record with the ability to deliver the message and energize the party as we haven’t seen since Ronald Reagan, former governor Sarah Palin. Her Iowa speech recently was an outright attack on the ‘crony capitalists’ who are turning profits with the aid of the taxpayers. She’s correctly stated that these are not champions of capitalism creating growth in the economy – instead they are parasites earning a living off of government bailouts and subsidies. Palin rightly attacks those businesses which have benefited from tax loopholes and redistributed wealth from taxpayers. She’s got a long history of success with her aggressive style challenging conventional wisdom and fighting entrenched government. She’s taken on the tough fights in her own party and won. Her leadership and decision making helped create a strong economy in Alaska. She’s rooted out corruption and stood firm in the face of criticism and every kind of vitriol thrown her way. She’s got executive and life experience necessary to be an effective commander-in-chief. Family values, patriotism and an unapologetic approach to supporting our military and putting the interest of America first in the world.

¬†The country needs leadership, and we’re overdue for a tough talking sheriff not afraid to act who will get to Washington and clean up the mess left by years of apologetic and weak Republicans and big government Democrats.

Palin is already a champion of the right policies that will restore a growth economy nationally creating sustainable employment and revenue. She’s got the courage, conviction and charisma necessary to polarize the electorate enough to win.

 The good news is that Americans are slowly waking up from the Obama-induced slumber that allowed government to explode overnight and not especially pleased with what they see.

¬†We cannot fear standing up and aggressively fighting those political elites that would ruin our economy and create the ‘shared scarcity’ that Congressman Paul Ryan warned of in a speech in Chicago a few months ago. We cannot fear stepping up to the plate with a contentious, strong willed, leader to articulate the position of the taxpayer who is on the hook for the debt and the future liability of a nation of dependents. Instead we should embrace the opportunity and select a nominee who will be unafraid to champion the free market…unafraid to put American interests first…unafraid to take the beating that will surely come from the political and media elite.

¬†Time to fight…are you ready?

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Quick Debate Recap

And the winner is:

Good night for Romney

Mitt Romney.¬† Romney was the adult on the stage.¬† When the moderators tried to pick a fight between Perry and Romney, Romney put a quick end to it.¬† When the candidates attacked each other, Romney said that any one of them would be better than Obama.¬† Romney drove home the point that Obama is in over his head.¬† He drove that point so well that it stuck out above the fray.¬† Instead of seeing animosity, disagreements or even easy shots from Romney, he gave honor to Reagan’s golden rule and even offered Perry a “mulligan” on mandatory vaccinations.¬† Romney, having just released his plan, had that to stand on in the debate.¬† Romney has also been paying attention.¬† After last debate, Obama complained that none of the candidates mentioned the middle class.¬† Romney responded by saying that the middle class has been hurt most by Obama, while not referencing the President’s criticism by name.¬† Romney also corrected the moderators on the myth of TEA party “membership”, and then followed up by spelling out exactly what the TEA party stands for and endorsing them.

Newt Gingrich is a great debater and did not disappoint.  His attacks on Obama and focus on Obama, not on other Republicans, showed why he is a great candidate for the GOP.  Gingrich showed a fire that I think most people have lost sight of as he has faded between major events like this.  Unfortunately, because Newt has struggled to gain national attention outside of the debates, this debate as well will probably not give him a bump.  But his performance was a solid 2nd place performance.

Michele Bachmann did not carve out a huge chunk of attention for herself or particularly stand out, but she didn’t make any mistakes either.¬† She was even able to field the $2 a gallon gas question by pointing out that it was below that when Obama’s presidency began.¬† I think Americans are understanding better than Huntsman and others what she means when she says she can produce $2 a gallon gas.¬† But the key for Bachmann was her expounding on why she would not accept a taxes for spending cuts deal.¬† I think she just beat Gingrich to the punch.¬† At the Reagan Library, Michele Bachmann reminded us of Reagan’s deal with Democrats where he was promised $3 in spending cuts for every $1 in taxes increased.¬† Instead, as she put it, he got $3 in tax hikes for every $1 in spending cuts.¬† This was a shining moment that explained away what could have been easily used in the general election as an attack on the Republican candidate’s uncompromising stance.¬† For the short amount of time she was given, she met expectations and in that one instance vastly exceeded them.

Rick Perry described himself as the pinata in the party, and as the front runner he could probably have expected this.¬† He also got a perceived majority of the time as the moderators and other candidates spent a great deal of time fleshing out his positions and attacking his record.¬† Some of the shine will certainly be gone after tonight.¬† At one point he seemed to stumble and go into slow motion on one of his responses.¬† He was beat up a lot and a lot of issues came into the spot light that perhaps he wishes hadn’t.¬† Perry didn’t back off of his social security rhetoric, which will win him some supporters and lose others.¬† In the end, Perry survived the night and still came out strong, but I think his front runner status is going to be in danger going forward.¬† Enter Sarah Palin?

Herman Cain focused on the word “solutions”.¬† He sounded like a CEO.¬† He mentioned some of his plans and ideas, but a great deal of it sounded very much like platitudes.¬† I think in a few weeks I will write a “Where are they now?” blog post about former candidates in this primary who had so much potential but then faded into the background and eventually out of the race.¬† Pawlenty, Gary Johnson, Mitch Daniels will all make that list.¬† Is Cain destined for the “Where are they now?” post?

Jon Huntsman did a pretty good job connecting for most of the debate.¬† A lot of his answers sounded pretty reasonable and brought him further from the edge of moderate liberalism that he had been occupying.¬† He was doing a pretty good job.¬† And then he started talking about global warming.¬† Perry’s slow motion, botched response with simple homey reference to Galileo still put Huntsman to shame on global warming.¬† Huntsman’s answer on science will distance him from a vast majority of the right base.¬† Even the vast majority of evolutionists on the right still wouldn’t destroy the economy over global warming science.¬† Mark my words, this is the death of Huntsman’s campaign, although I doubt he will figure that out for another month or two.

Santorum had an odd look on his face the whole evening.¬† It almost seemed like every time the camera pointed at him, he was asking himself “what the heck am I doing here?”¬† I had the same question.¬† Santorum is a great guy, but his ideas are stale and his campaign is stalled.¬† Most of his answers echoed Newt Gingrich and the ones that didn’t were the answers of a candidate from a different time than we live in now.¬† I think Santorum has done a good job of presenting his issues and making sure they are a topic in this primary.¬† He should gracefully bow out now.

Ron Paul was in rare form.¬† Well, not really rare form, just rare for what we’ve seen in this year’s more civil, tame campaign.¬† We didn’t see any of that civil, tame version of Paul tonight.¬† The moderators, between asking the right questions and denying him equal time, played Ron Paul like a fiddle.¬† The result was some gems, like Paul saying we should take air conditioners away from troops in the green zone, that gas would only cost a dime if our coins were still made with silver, and that if we put up a fence to curb illegal immigration eventually that fence would be used to keep Americans from leaving.¬† His performance was completely unpresidential, and he made Perry look like a moderate.¬† Paul will still appeal to about 10% of America with this debate performance, and they are a very loud 10%.¬† But he did a great deal of damage to the liveable campaign he had been building to date.¬† I think he will even lose many of the moderates and independents his anti-establishmentism had been attracting.

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