George Pataki Heads to Iowa to Address Republicans at the State Fair

Bookmark and Share   On Saturday, former New York Governor George Pataki is heading to Iowa where he will speak to those in attendance at the Polk County Republican picnic. The event is being held on the Iowa State fairgrounds.

The Governor has suggested that he will make a decision about a run for President in 2012 probably within the next week. If that is true, he is probably not heading all the way out to Iowa to announce he is not running. That could be done much more easily from his backyard or in a Twitter, like most all others are doing these days.

I won’t dare say whether Pataki will run or not. If I did, it would be only guess and besides I have been wrong to many times already about who will run. But I will say that it makes no sense for Pataki run. With Jon Huntsman running, there already is a moderate Republican Governor running in the form of former Utah Governor Jon Huntsman, and he’s not moving very much. We have even seen another relatively moderate Governor aggressively pursue the nomination and then suddenly drop out of the race because he too was not gaining any traction.

If the thinking is that the very large field of hardcore conservatives will be divided enough to allow a moderate to run up the middle and win the nomination, he’s wrong. If that scenario plays out, for anyone, it  will be Mitt Romney. But even Romney is doing his best to run as far to the right as possible. And why? Because Republicans do not want another McCain as there nominee. They want someone who will be as conservative enough for them to not doubt their commitment to the conservative cause. A New York Republican just doesn’t fit that bill.

What Pataki says this Saturday though, will nonetheless be interesting.

Bookmark and Share

Former New York Governor George Pataki to Announce His Decision About a Run For President

Bookmark and Share   As the need to make up their minds regarding whether to run for President or not approaches, the latest name to let us know that he will make a definitive decision soon is former New York Governor George Pataki.

According to NY1, (see video below) the former three term Republican Governor will announce his decision within a week. Not that there are a whole lot of people hoping and waiting for him to run. While the 66 year old Pataki served New York well during his tenure, his leadership was far from transformative and he would enter the race as one of the longest shots in the field so far. His fundraising capability is not extensive and pales in comparison to other Republican opponents such as Perry and Romney.

Pataki also lacks any great claim to fame or particular expertise and there is no particular opening in the existing field that he would be able to immediately fill.

While Pataki has made a few uneventful appearances in Iowa and New Hampshire over the past few months, his testing of the waters created few ripples. So all things considered, the only reason I see for Pataki to decide to run would be boredom.

Bookmark and Share

Christie, Gingrich, Daniels and Romney Top New Jersey Presidential Straw Poll

Bookmark and Share At a gathering of Republican candidates, campaign managers, staffers and grass root activists, White House 2012 and Building the New Majority sponsored New Jerseys first Republican presidential straw poll for the 2012 election and the winner was their own Governor, Chris Christie.

Of the 196 voters who participated, 19.8% named Governor Christie their first choice for the Republican presidential nomination. Coming in second was former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich with 12.5%, followed by Indiana Governor Mitch Daniels and former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney with 9.4% each, former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee 7.3%, former Florida Governor Jeb Bush 6.3%, former Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty 5.2%, and Texas Rep. Ron Paul and former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin tied at 4.2%.

The Garden State Republican Presidential Straw Poll consisted of 25 of the most often mentioned names and likely contenders in the emerging Republican field. Due to the large size of the still developing field and the likelihood that some, if not many of those names on the ballot may not run, or may not make it to the New Jersey primary, unlike most traditional straw polls, the White House 2012/BTNM ballot also asked New Jersey Republicans who their second choice for President was. The big winner here was Mitt Romney who was the second choice of 20.8% of voters. This conclusion is quite important given the fact that Governor Christie has repeatedly denied any interest in running for President in 2012.

Following Romney in this second choice category was Sarah Palin, Minnesota Congresswoman Michele Bachmann and former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani, each with 8.3%, Mike Huckabee 6.3% and Mitch Daniels 5.2%.

Click here to read raw numbers

A third question on the ballot asked voters to describe their place on the ideological scale within the Republican Party. None of the respondents described themselves as liberal but 75%, or 144 of the participating voters called themselves conservative, and the remaining 48 (25%), described themselves of moderate.

Among self described conservatives, a majority of 15.3% named Chris Christie as their first choice for the presidential nomination and 23.6% of them named Mitt Romney as their second choice for the nomination. As for moderates 33.3% of them also declared Christie to be their first choice but their second choice for the nomination was Rudy Giuliani who took that position with 25% of the vote from moderates.

See complete results below this post

The poll was conducted by White House 2012 and Building the New Majority amongNew Jersey Republicans who participated ina recent seminar sponsored by Building the New Majority and the Family PolicyCouncil that took place in Parsippany, New Jersey.

While these results are by no means a sure sign of how the New Jersey Republican presidential primary will turnout less than a year from now, it does offer a good glimpse at where the energies and enthusiasm of the activist base of the states G.O.P. lie. These results demonstrate to me, that at this stage in the game, if Chris Christie is true to his word about not running for the nomination, Mitt Romney looks good in New Jersey. Romney worked the Republican base and Party activists pretty well in 2008, and while minds are by no means made up yet, his efforts of the last campaign for president are giving him a slight advantage in New Jersey in the coming election.

As indicated by the numbers, the results were influenced by a largely conservative vote, but a strong conservative influence is likely to dominate New Jersey’s actual presidential primary. How much has yet to be seen.

The Raw Numbers

Who is your FIRST CHOICE for the 2012 Republican Presidential nomination?

Who is yourSECOND CHOICE for the 2012 Republican Presidential nomination?

Do you consider yourself to be a liberal, a moderate, or conservative Republican?

  1. Conservative 144 75%
  2. Moderate 48 25%
  3. Liberal 0 0

Bookmark and Share

White House 2012 Monthy Ranking of Republican Presidential Contenders

Bookmark and Share The White House 2012 ranking of possibe Republican presidential contenders for March is out and while there is much movement around from last month, most of the top tier contneders remain the same as they were in February and the staff of White House 2012 still has Mitt Romney leading in first place.

The White House 2012 ranking is established through a system that takes an average from the placement that the writers at WH2012 put the candidates in. Their placements are acombination of the ground game contenders are playing, their fundraising abilities, name ID, and a mix of individual expectations and prediction.

While theses standings do not reflect the desire of any one White House 2012 writer it is a measure of whereall the variables pace thesepossible candidates among the general Republican electorate at this point in time.

Bookmark and Share

Thursday’s 2012 Republican Presidentail News Roundup

A roundup of todays tidbits from the campaign trail;

Bookmark and ShareThursday, February 3, 2011

For previous Trunkline 2012 daily tidbits visit here

Huckabee To Lead Health Care Repeal Petition Drive

Bookmark and Share

In what he called, the most massive petition drive in the history of the country. , former Arkansas Governor and 2008 GOP presidential candidate Mike Huckabee called Tuesday for Congress to repeal the health care laws passed last year by the Democrat led House and Senate and signed by President Obama. The repeal process is expected to move forward on Wednesday with the backing of the new Republican majority in the House of Representatives. Democrat Senate majority leader Harry Reid however has vowed to not even bring the House repeal bill to the floor of the Senate for a vote.

“We were told — and sold — everything except the truth about the details in the health care act, noted Huckabee on Tuesday. And then, despite a majority of Americans rejecting this massive change in public policy, Congress enacted it anyway. Thats not the way its supposed to work in our representative democracy. This massive 2,500-page piece of legislation went to the floor of the House without being read by pretty much anyone, was rammed down the throats of an unwilling public, was enacted in the middle of the night — and in the height of hypocrisy, exempted the president, the vice president, congressional leadership and committee staff from the bill that Americans didnt want.”

With a 2012 run in the near future, Huckabee seems to be drawing a line in the sand when it comes to the health care bill which has been a hot button topic since it was passed by the Democrat majorities last year. With the Democrats remaining in control of the Senate and repeal seeming unlikely a petition drive may be the way in that those who favor scrapping the laws need. Although it may not be an actual feasible means to force the Senate to address the issue it does have the power of public support behind it that can be used as ammunition in a possible Huckabee candidacy in 2012. Former New York Governor and potential 2012 candidate George Pataki also favors a petition drive for repeal. If the the petition drive gains steam and the Senate refuses to hear the House repeal bill, Huckabee could have a hand up in showing the people that he will be working for what they want in 2012.

Bookmark and Share

And They’re Off

Bookmark and Share Think its too early for Republicans to start campaigning for President? Think again. Around this time in 2007, Hillary Clinton was preparing to announce her candidacy for the Democratic nomination. Senator Barack Obama was 5 weeks away from making his announcement. On February 13th of 2007, in Dearborn, Michigan, it was Mitt Romney who announced his candidacy at the Ford Museum. It was January 28th when Mike Huckabee announced his campaign intentions on Meet the Press and January 31st, Senator Joe Biden did the same. Earlier in the month of January Democrat Senator Chris Dodd made his official announcement on the 11th, while on the 20th Senator Sam Brownback made his official announcement and on the 25th, Republican Representative Duncan Hunter did so too.

So No, it is not too early to begin covering the moves of the potential candidates for President in 2012. And not just for the Republicans either.

Democrats should be looking out for challengers to President Obama.

After his unusual election night concession speech, soon to be former Wisconsin Senator Russ Feingold could demonstrate what he meant when he said now its on to 2012 and possibly challenge the troubled President from the left. Then there are Democrats on the right of the President who could come in to play. But the most potentially damaging of all possibilities could come from the self described progressive wing of the Party which Hillary Clinton claims the mantle of.

A challenge to President from his Party still remains unlikely though it is a remote possibility. And if President Obama fails to improve his standing and the economy a late challenge that could embarrass but not defeat him, is very possible.

But for now, the activity is on the Republican side.

As indicated by White House 2012, the potential field for the G.O.P. is a large one. And while there are three very real undeclared candidates campaigning..Romney, Pawlenty, and Gary Johnson, the former Governor of New Mexico, a dozen or more others are threatening to make their decisions in the spring. Such a relatively late start is not necessarily a bad thing. While we all knew he was running, John McCain did not make his announcement official until mid April of 2011.

Right now though, many possible candidates are waiting to see if the elephant in the room, or in her case, the Mamma Grizzly in the room, roars with her own decision to run for President. Sarah Palin has the attention of the people and the presence of personality to take away the steam that many other potential candidates would need to be successful. As such, many like John Thune and even Mike Pence are waiting to see what she does.

In all I considers there to be more than 20 very real possible candidates. They include Haley Barbour, Rick Santorum, Mike Pence, Newt Gingrich, Mitt Romney, Gary Johnson, .Tim Pawlenty, John Thune, George Pataki, Mike Huckabee, Mitch Daniels and the perennial candidate, Ron Paul. Of course not all will make an official run and others may not enter the race till maybe as late as September. In fact if none of the officla candidates get significant traction in the months following their announcement, some candidates not on y list are likely to throw their hats in to the ring. Someone like Wisconsin Congressman Paul Ryan could be one of those. As the incoming Chairman of the House Budget Committee, he will be one of the most important legislators in D.C. from both major Parties and if he is not hearing any of the right things on the issue of the budget from any of the declared candidates, he may just become one himself. Another name to watch for if he does not like what he is seeing and hearing is Donald Trump.

Trump probably wont go the distance but he could make the difference for people like Mitt Romney and even Tim Pawlenty.

Right now, aside from the given candidacies of both Romney and Pawlenty, the big names to look out for are Haley Barbour, Mitch Daniels, Newt Gingrich, Sarah Palin, John Thune, and Mike Pence. Any configuration of these names entering or not entering the race will make a big difference in the end. If Daniels does not run, which is very likely, Barbour, Romeny, and Pence will benefit greatly. If Barbour does not run, Romney and Palin could have the most to gain. If all of them run, well then look for the 2012 primary season to be a long and bloody one. In the meantime, look at who is doing what in the first two months of the new year. That will tell you who is most likely running.

Bookmark and Share
%d bloggers like this: