Christie and Giuliani and Ryan and Palin, Oh My!

Bookmark and Share   Four More Possibly Entries Into the G.O.P. Presidential Field Keep Things In a High State of Flux

 
As the time for when it will be too late to enter the presidential race approaches, four names remain the main focus of speculation. They are Sarah Palin, New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani, and now House Budget Committee Chairman, Congressman Paul Ryan.

Yesterday reliable source Stephen Hayes confirmed that Congressman Ryan has been and is considering a run for the White House. Despite statements to the contrary from Ryan at the beginning of the year, Hayes, who has been investigating the story for over eight months, determined in July that Ryan was now considering it. This change of heart can be associated to a recent statement he made in which he indicated that he has” yet to see a strong and principled articulation of the kind of limited government, opportunity society path that we would provide as an alternative to the Obama cradle to grave welfare state.”

Today the unreliable MSNBC source that is Jonathon Alter tweeted that he has discovered New Jersey Governor Chris Christie is conducting focus groups in preparation for a possible run for President in 2012. Aides to the Governor have denied the rumor and I tend to believe them. Christie may very well be conducting focus groups but that could easily be in reference to the type of strategy that he intends to use for the selling of his legislative agenda and the state legislative elections that are being held this year in New Jersey. With newly drawn district lines, both houses of the state legislature are up for election and for Republicans, winning control of at least one of the two houses will go a long way in passing Christie’s agenda in the two years to come.

Still though, it is not unrealistic for Christie to be mulling over the possibility of a presidential run.

He has been courted by business groups and political leaders throughout the country including one recent delegation from Iowa, where the first presidential nomination contest takes place. He has also been skewing his language lately in a way that would have him seem less partisan than he has been in the past. This is not to say he has moderated his positions but he has framed his positions as being the result of non-partisan, good government,  leadership, rather than partisan political leadership.

Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani has himself said that he considering a second go at the Republican presidential nomination. However it is clear to me that Rudy is far too indecisive to even be considered. For whatever the reasons, ever since Rudy left elected office in 2001, he has come close to running for United States Senate and then abandoned his first senate race against Hillary Clinton. Then he toyed with running for Governor, first against Eliot Spitzer than against Andrew Cuomo and in between he toyed again with the idea of running against either Chuck Schumer or Kirsten Gillibrand for the U.S. Senate. And in 2008 his run for President was so half hearted and pathetic that it could not be taken seriously. In fact Rudy has toyed with running for elective office so much that it would seem he is more interested in playing than leading.

Furthermore; if Rudy did not learn from his last failed attempt for the White House that a late start does not help, than I doubt he has learned enough to make another run any better than his last.

However, this time around , Rudy believes that the more Republicans who run for the nomination, the better his chances of winning because he will have a greater ability to distinguish himself as a moderate, a point he made in this interview with Piers Morgan. In the end though, the only way that Rudy will run is if Sarah Palin runs.

Rudy truly dislikes Palin and her politics, he has said so. And from what I gather, any attempt to run by Rudy would motivated solely by his desire to go after Palin. He has so much as said that if Sarah Palin runs for president, then, hell, he might as well throw his hat in the ring, too.

This does not a President make.

But Rudy probably won’t run. First because he is not as committed to the prospect of being President as one should be. And second, because Sarah Palin is not likely to run.

Palin has made no visible moves that are indicative of the early beginnings of a campaign. She is also doing quite well as a positive motivational force and making good money at the same time. This combined with the fact that she knows how much her and her family would have to sacrifice at the mercy of a national media opposed to her, makes the prospects of a presidential candidacy for Palin unlikely. Another factor is Rick Perry. Perry and Palin have become friends of sorts and now that the Texas Governor is in, I believe there is a high probability that she will endorse him.

But this is not set in stone either. If circumstances change and if Perry’s prospects are shot down and Palin believes she would be the only truly viable conservative TEA movement candidate, she will enter the race. This is unlikely but possible, especially given the fact that of all the possible Republican names being thrown around for President, she is the only one who has a national following so large and so motivated that she can afford a late entry in to the race.

With an infinitesimal number of variables at play in the evolving presidential race, it would unwise for me to make any predictions. But the only reference to wise that has ever been made regarding me is to mouth, so I will go out on a limb here and make my prediction. Of Ryan, Christie, Giuliani and Palin, the only one who is still likely to get in to the race is Paul Ryan. At least that is what I hope. In fact it is my hope which is probably what most accounts for this prognostication. But as they say, hope springs eternal.

UPDATE:  Just as I wrote, Jonathan Alter is in fact an unreliable source.  As of this evening, Alter tweeted the following:

“Re my Christie screwUp: sources doing own focus groups that they made seem Christie semi-authorized. Wishful thinking.”
 
Leave it to MSNBC first to hire a socialist like Alter, and two to try pass Alter off as credible.

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Rudy Takes Subtle Swipes at Palin as He Considers Another Run for President

Bookmark and Share CNN reports that Rudy Giuliani once again confirmed he is considering a run for President in 2012, especially if Sarah Palin runs.
In an interview on “Piers Morgan Tonight”, that will beairing on Monday, Giulianialso sharply criticizes Sarah Palin for using the term “blood libel” in her video response to unfounded accusatuions chargingher withresponsibility for the recent Arizona shooting massacre. According to Giuliani, the term is too closely related to Jewish genocide to have been used inreference to her situation.
Regarding his possible run for President, Rudy opines that the more Republicans who run, the more he can contrast himself from all of them and the better his chances of winning will be. See a clip from the interviewhere.

The former New York City Mayor also indicates that if Sarah Palin runs, so will he.

Sounds like fightin words to me.

Apparently he not only seems to see the sharpest contrast of all to be the one that exists between him and Palin, it also sounds as though he has a big problem with her.

Could Rudy be trying to pick up the mantle for the Nelson Rockefeller wing of the G.O.P.? And if so, is he really banking on the ability of the establishment political class and the liberal wings of the Party to overpower the anti-establishment, TEA Party influenced and conservative wings of the Party? Either way, perhaps the best way for Rudy to approach things is via a more conciliatory tone that seeks to forge a path of common ground for the G.O.P to stand on.

One thing is for sure though. Hereto now, none of the possible Republican contenders have dared to ruffle the feathers of Palin admirers. None except for Rudy. He seems quite desirous to do so. Perhaps its way of distinguishing himself from the field early? But no one ever claimed Rudy was a particularlygreta campaigner and political strategist. His 2008 campaign effort provided us with a textbook example of how not to run for President. If he is seriously considering another run for the Oval Office in 2012, hopefully he hasfreshened up on that textbook. From the sounds of it, he hasnt.

Meanwhile a recent straw poll of New Hampshire State Republican Committeemembers places Rudy in 14th place with 2%. Palin stands infourth place with 7%. Neither received numbers worth crowing about.

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