Watch One Iowa Caucus Precinct Via Live Stream

Bookmark and Share    Take the time to see the Caucus process live via a live stream feed of  one Iowa Caucus precinct.

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Herman Cain Resurfaces with the Promise of an Unconventional Endorsement

Bookmark and Share   Moments ago, in a Fox News interview, Herman Cain resurfaced and shed some light on his future role in the 2012 presidential election.

Cain told viewers that he does not intend to endorse any candidate any time soon.  He states, “If I were to make an endorsement now, it might split the vote”.  He claims that in addition to not wanting to do that, he also does not want to do anything that prevents voters from remaining engaged in the process and educating themselves about candidates.

But the Herminator does promise to eventually issue what he called “an unconventional endorsement”.  He added that after running an unconventioanl campaign, an unconventional endorsement is only appropriate.

During the interview Cain admitted that in the end he will support whoever is the Republican nominee and as for his own political future he states that because of his accelerated age, he believes his biological clock will preclude any future run for president and he is not positioning himself for any future cabinet position.  However Cain did promise to remain active through his new political organization which is headquartered on the internet at The Cain Solutions website.

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As I Asked Before, Does It Make Sense to Endorse the People You Want to Run Against?

Bookmark and Share    Last week I was criticized for criticizing now former Republican presidential candidate Gary Johnson for endorsing Ron Paul for the Republican presidential nomination while at the same time seeking the Libertarian presidential nomination.  I made a bit of a stink about the stupidity of endorsing the candidacy of someone who you intend to oppose.

As it turned out, when Johnson made it official that he was changing his Party registration from Republican to Libertarian, dropping his bid for the G.O.P. presidential nomination, and seeking the Libertarian Party’s nomination, he did not come right out and endorse Ron Paul.  That made sense.

However, this week, one day before the Iowa Caucuses, Gary Johnson lived up to expectations and came out with the following statement.

“While Ron Paul and I are both libertarians, we don’t necessarily agree on every single issue.

However, on the overriding issues of restoring our economy by cutting out-of-control spending and the need to get back to Constitutional principles in our government, Ron Paul and I are in lock-step.”

….I am hopeful that in urging my supporters in Iowa to vote for Ron Paul in the coming caucuses, a victory for the principles we share can be won.”

Thank you Gary Johnson.

Thanks for redeeming me and my previous post on this topic.  You have helped make my questions more relevant than ever and it is my greatest hope that you will in eventually  decide whether you want to be President or whether you want Ron Paul to be President. Once you make that decision, maybe you will finally be able to do a little good for either yourself or Ron Paul.  Until then you are  just being a fool and playing us for fools.

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Gingrich Super PAC Launches Super Big Ad Buy in Iowa

Bookmark and Share    The individuals behind the pro-Gingrich Super PAC known as Winning Our Future have launched their first ad in Iowa with a reported significant media buy of $250,000.  The ad will run from now through Monday, January 2nd, the day before the Iowa Caucuses.

The ad offers a compelling arguments for those who are still undecided and open to Newt Gingrich’s candidacy.

It tries to play on the strong anti-establishment sentiments that are motivating much of the electorate, including those within the TEA movement.

The ad contends that given the aggressive opposition to Newt’s candidacy that establishment Republicans demonstrated, he is clearly no friend of the establishment.

The point is quite a valid one and one which Newt Gingrich could have and should have run with as soon as the inundation of negative attacks on him began.  Had Newt’s campaign been able to create and focus on a single message that would have defined himself as the anti-establishment candidate, he could have maintained much of the lead that he once held.  But the lack of political discipline and organization of Newt’s campaign failed to capitalize on that and lacked the ability to effectively coordinate such a theme.

Fortunately, the Super PAC, that is not affiliated with Newt’s campaign, has taken it upon themselves to try and do what Newt didn’t and while I think their new ad helps, I believe that it is too little, too late to move Newt’s numbers significantly.  At this stage  of the game in Iowa and New Hampshire, the real focus needs to be on undecided voters and the Get Out the Vote operation.  Unfortunately, Newt lacks the organizational ability to identify those undecided voters and insure that those who are solidly behind him, show up at their precinct’s caucus and make their support official.

Compounding Newt’s problem is his loss of momentum.

If those who are supporting Gingrich come to believe that Newt has slipped so far that it is impossible for him to win, some of those supporters may not bother with the trouble of trudging out to a Caucus on a cold night and listening to an hour of speeches only to see their candidate suffer what they believe is an inevitable defeat.

So while ad likes this can’t hurt, Gingrich needs to somehow excite his supporters and win over a good portion of the very sizeable undecided vote.  Then he needs to make sure they show up at their proper caucus location.  However, at the moment, Newt is conceding the momentum to Ron paul and Mitt Romney and the ground game to Romney, Paul, Bachmann, and Santorum.

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Trunkline 2012: Friday’s Campaign Trail News Wrap-Up from White House 2012 – 12/9/11

Bookmark and Share  Newt has Mitt on the ropes in Michigan, critics scratch their heads regarding Newt, Ron Paul’s chances, Rick Perry trips over his tongue, Democrats ban their Occupy friends from their convention, Buddy Roemer continues to try to win the Republican nomination with those banned Occupy protesters, and FDR tutors Obama in class warfare tactics.  These are just some of them gems found in the wealth of treasure in today’s Trunkline 2012.

“To think that he’s an outsider or a tea partier, that he’s going to go into the White House and change things up when he’s been the constant Washington, D.C., insider doesn’t even survive the falling-off-the-chair-laughing test,”Congresswoman Michele Bachmann on former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich

  • Twitter of the Day:
Newt Gingrich   newtgingrich   Newt Gingrich
 
My first day in office, I will move the US Embassy from Tel Aviv to Israel’s chosen place, Jerusalem. Pls watch. http://bit.ly/uSPYO3
 
 
 

 

“Lazy” by Perry Productions, the Campaign that Writes Good Scripts but Needs Better Performers

Bookmark and Share  Rick Perry has come out with his latest campaign ad, one of many new 30 seconds spots that are most likely being used to fill up the ad time he purchased on Iowa television and cable, not to mention on Fox News via cable throughout the nation. 

The new spot is entitled “Lazy” and it uses President Obama’s claim that American’s have become lazy, to argue that the real problem with America is not some perceived  laziness of  Americans, but rather the need to clean house of people like President Obama [see the ad below this post] .   The commercial than refers to several populist points from Perry’s recent multifaceted, reform proposal that seeks to change the way government does business by reforming both the government  process and the federal institutions overseeing those processes.

What strikes me most about this and all the others ads put out by Perry, is just how perfect he is in them. 

In them we see a man who we can relate to, and easily see the ability to warm up to.  In them we see a Rick Perry who is charming, strong, and seemingly confident and competent.  It is almost like we’re watching the Marlboro man perform before us.  

It demonstrates just how perfect a candidate Perry is when scripted and why there was so much enthusiasm for him before he actually took his show on the road and performed before a live audience.  Perhaps that is why Rick Perry’s campaign is putting out so many new 30 second spots this early.  You can note that the heightened proliferation of Perry television ads dates back to the day after he suffered a very severe and very public brain freeze siezure during one of the previous debates.  It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to realize that Perry needed to repair his image somehow, and evidently he was convinced that a closed set would serve him far better than another performance before a live, national, studio audience.

All of Perry’s new ad ‘s are actually quite good.  In addition to a candidate who can speak well,  the things his handlers have him saying are actually populist positions of common sense approaches to our problems.

Unfortunately though, the new reputation that Perry established for himself through a number of verbal songs and dances that ended up with his foot in his mouth, now proceeds him and these new ads.  So the question now is, can Rick Perry use these ads to rehabilitate his reputation, and at the same time, buy him the  time he needs to get his act together? 

That has yet to be seen but with the luxury of a well stocked campaign treasury, it is possible for Perry to comeback.    However any comeback for Perry must occur very early, like in Iowa.

A torrent of money initially flowed in to Perry’s campaign, but after he seemed to implode before our eyes, the torrent turned in to a relative trickle as donors and donations dried up for Perry.  And unless Perry can take his early gotten wealth and use it to buy him time and a new image before the Iowa Caucuses, the money flow will continue to dry up for him.  

Meanwhile the ads keep coming and for Rick Perry and his campaign, hopes springs eternal.  Unfortunately for though, the Iowa caucuses are held in the Winter.  If they were held in the Spring, he would have a better shot at coming back.

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Air War Begins as Perry and Cain Try to Take Control of Iowa

Bookmark and Share  With less than two months to go before voting to pick a Republican presidential nominee begins, and Thanksgiving and Christmas cutting down on the amount of time candidates have to get their message, Rick Perry and Herman Cain have begun airing radio ads.

Perry’s ad [hear the ad below this post] is a an upbeat ad that avoids negative attacks and focusses on his reform minded agenda by touting how he is not content with “tinkering” with our tax code, he wants it dismantled and replaced with his 20% tax plan.  The ad also quotes glowing praise of Perry’s plan that has been offered by leading conservative tax and financial experts.

In its entirety, the radio spot is the type of piece that could help him stabilize his downward spiral in the polls among Iowa voters.  If his ad buy is significant and if he keeps it running for decent amount of time in the right markets, it will have a positive effect.  Of course it won’t be enough to save him, but is enough to give the opportunity to pull himself up.

Dean Kleckner

Meanwhile Herman Cain has begun to air his first ad in Iowa.

Cain’s piece utilizes the endorsement of Iowa’s former Farm Bureau chief Dean Kleckner, as the basis for his appeal to the agriculture dominated state. Having been the President of the Iowa Farm Bureau and the American Farm Bureau for more than 24 years his support will resonate among a good portion of the Iowa electorate.  Kleckner is currently on the board of directors for Iowans for Tax Relief.

In the ad, Kleckner says that Herman Cain will stand up for farmers.

In a letter explaining his support for Cain, Kleckner explained that he finds Cain to be a proven CEO with the knowledge and ability to reverse the tide of government over regulation which is damaging the agriculture business.  He stresses that running a farm is like running a business and suggests that with his outstanding record in business, he is best equipped to help farmers.

Separate statements made to the Des Moines Register Cain explains;

“I spent much of my life in the food industry and we could not have succeeded without great American agriculture. I want to thank Mr. Kleckner for his endorsement and let all farmers know that we will stand with them as they try to feed the world.”

Controversial Cain campaign chief Mark Block states;

 “The fact that our first ad in Iowa focuses on agriculture should send a message to the Iowa ag community how much we value the contribution of farmers to the American economy and their importance in the caucuses.”

Both ads are good and have the ability to move some numbers in Iowa, but with candidates like Bachmann, Gingrich, and Romney, saving their money and holding their powder, it has yet to be seen what they put out.  The right message presented creatively and supported by a substantial follow up in the form of a good ground game, could easily turn back any improved numbers that Perry and Cain may gain with their new ads.   No matter what though, now is when the size of the candidate’s campaign treasury really starts making the difference.  A well financed campaign like Rick Perry’s can either spend their money on a steady stream of ads, from now till the Caucus takes place, while others like Cain will have to be far more sparing in their ad buy strategy.

The one thing all the candidates should be fearing is Romney.

There is no doubt that he has the money to spend, yet he has not spent it in Iowa.  Does that mean he will save his money and make an insurmountable investment in contests after Iowa?  Or is he going to saturate Iowa with messages that dominate the air in December, when Iowans really start making up their minds about who they will support.

Perry Tries To Reclaim Ground in Iowa with New Television Ad Buy

  Bookmark and Share  It may not be a good thing but there is no denying that there two critical elements in winning an election——–money and organization.  So far Rick Perry campaign’s has not demonstrated any great organizational skills but he has proven to be a prolific fundraiser and now we are seeing that money go to work. [see the ad below]

While there have been web ads produced and released, few campaigns have actually put those ads on television.  While web ads cost practically nothing to run on the internet, airing those ads on television can become expensive.  But in an attempt to regain some ground and establish momentum in the race for the Republican presidential nomination, Rick Perry has become one of the first G.O.P. candidates to run ads on network TV in Iowa.  Fred Karger was actually the first.

In the thirty second spot, Perry promises to create 2.5 million jobs Rick Perry promises to create at least 2.5 million new jobs.  He punctuates his promise by saying “I know something about that,”  “In Texas we’ve created over 1 million new jobs while the rest of the nation lost over 2 million.”

The commercial spot also taps in to the vote rich issue of domestic energy production as Perry states;

“I’ll eliminate President Obama’s regulations that hurt other sources of domestic energy, like coal and natural gas,” Perry says in the ad. “That will create jobs and reduce our reliance on oil from countries that hate America.”

The spot is a good one and if played enough times and seen by enough receptive Iowa voters, it can help to boost Perry’s image and at least establish a more positive subconscious impression of him in the mind of voters.  What will be interesting to see is if the new Perry television commercial goes unanswered by any or all of his G.O.P. presidential rivals.  Will one of them question Perry’s claims about his record on job creation in Texas, or will they allow his ad to allow Perry to reclaim the strongest argument he had going for him as America’s jobs Governor?

With 10 weeks to go before the Iowa Caucuses are held, the strategies that each campaign hopes to employ in Iowa have to go in to action pretty soon.  Especially since the week to week and a half prior to the Caucus, most voters will be more focussed on the Christmas and New Year’s holidays than on Mitt Romney’s Massachusetts healthcare plan or what was painted on a rock nestled somewhere in the property owned by Perry’s family.

So running relatively early ads in Iowa could be quite important and in Perry’s case it is probably the prudent thing to do.  With his numbers in  Iowa anywhere between 6 and 9 percent, he is currently far back in the field holding on to fourth place, behind Newt Gingrich.   That means Perry has to start to somehow bring his numbers back up so that he has at the chance for a top spot in the Iowa Caucus results.

One thing that I will note here is that Rick Perry is a much better candidate when he is scripted.  In this particular ad, Perry is confident, convincing and sharp.  That is in total contrast to his live, on the stump, off the cuff appearances in which he often speaks in ways that are choppy and halting and cast an impression of awkwardness on unpreparedness on Perry.  Such is the case in his past debate performances and during other occasions where a teleprompter is not available to him.   In other words, good scripted commercials may be the best way for Perry to go.

And that brings us back to the two elements that are critical to any victorious campaign, money and organization.

Perry has the money but he needs to spend it wisely.  That means his campaign needs to determine whether he wants to make a real run for Iowa where if he pulls off a win, will have some momentum going into South Carolina.  Or does he want to just let Iowa fall where it may and focus on winning South Carolina and Florida?

Another alternative is to invest just enough money in Iowa to force his opponents to deplete their own resources in Iowa and avoid an embarrassing showing there, while maintaining a concentrated investment of time and money into South Carolina?

Whatever Perry’s strategy will be, it will have to go in to effect rather quickly.  With 10 weeks to go and only about 8 and half or 9 weeks to really utilize, time is running out.

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Iowa Caucus Power Rating

Bookmark and Share   By Steve Deace @ stevedeace.com

Note: These projections are done based on if the Iowa Caucuses were today with the field as current constructed. Please note this my analysis not my preference. I have yet to endorse a candidate.

1. Michele Bachmann (36%)

She is surging now, despite the fact she’s still really just now getting off the ground in Iowa, which is a testimony to the overall weakness of the field in the minds of many voters. Barring a complete and total self-inflicted meltdown, I now can’t foresee how she doesn’t win the Iowa Caucuses if this is the field. She’s drawing rock star-like crowds. My friend Wes Enos, who was Mike Huckabee’s political director in 2008 and is with Bachmann now, says he never saw crowds for Huckabee like Bachmann is currently attracting. The key for her will be staying aggressive on the issues to solidify as much of her support as she can in the eventuality that Rick Perry and Sarah Palin enter the race and attempt to syphon off a chunk of her support.

2. Tim Pawlenty (20%)

I don’t say this very often, but I agree with Doug Gross. His comments to Reuters that Pawlenty is trying to appeal to all segments of the Republican Party, and thus ends up appealing to really none of them, are spot on. Passive-aggressive is no way to run for president. Pawlenty doesn’t have a lot of glaring weaknesses as a candidate (other than his somewhat bland persona), but he doesn’t necessarily have anything that blows you away as well. He comes off as the sort of non-threatening, generic conservative the GOP could nominate any year. The problem with that is this isn’t just any year. This is a year that conservatives are looking for the political equivalent of a UFC combatant with charisma. Pawlenty still has time between now and the Straw Poll to reinvent himself, but he needs to pick one issue on the minds of Iowans and be the absolute boldest out there on it. I’d like to see that issue be the issues surrounding the judicial retention election, but it doesn’t have to be.

3. Ron Paul (16%)

I was starting to see some evidence of a Ron Paul boom a few weeks ago, but that has really died down. He just doesn’t seem to be doing much in the state right now. Why doesn’t he have State Rep. Kim Pearson, a pro-life champion in the Iowa House, going 99 counties to talk about his pledge to veto any budget that includes Planned Parenthood funding? Why doesn’t he have his well-liked son, Sen. Rand Paul, essentially turning Iowa into his second home? Why doesn’t he have activists/authors like Thomas Woods holding townhalls and conferences in Iowa about the need to repeal Obamacare? The issue environment is in his favor, but I can’t seem to figure out what his campaign’s gameplan is.

4. Mitt Romney (12%)

Romney has been playing the low-key approach McCain 2008 strategy in Iowa, because he knows he’s damaged goods here. Looking at the latest polling numbers in New Hampshire, he might want to start worrying about losing the state again, too.

5. Rick Santorum (9%)

I think he will slightly out-perform his polling numbers because his overall conservative record is more than acceptable enough to many conservatives, and there remains a bevy of conservatives either uncomfortable with Bachmann’s inexperience or gender who still need a home. Not to mention the fact his high-profile Iowa field director, Nick Ryan, has his reputation on the line as well, so he’ll pull out all the stops. Santorum could do much better than this if he throws caution to the wind and swings for the fences.

6. Herman Cain (6%)

I’m not sure anyone has ever gone supernova in the Iowa Caucuses quicker than Cain has, and it’s pretty clear he’s essentially done as a serious threat when just as recently as six weeks ago he suddenly appeared to be.

7. Thaddeus McCotter (1%)

Most people haven’t heard of him, let alone formed an opinion of him.

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Editor’s Note: Mr. Deace is a guest contributor to White House 2012 who through his site, stevedeace.com, will provide WH12 readers with upclose coverage and insights on the race to win the Iowa Republican Caucuses along with his weekly power rating and candidate weekend wrap-up .

You can folow Steve on Facebook

Special thanks to Jennifer Jacobs, the chief political reporter for the Des Moines Register. Ms. Jacobs  heped match WH12 up with Steve!

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Bachmann Makes It Official. She’s Running for President!

Bookmark and Share    Michele Bachmann used the first question she was asked in tonight’s presidential debate to announce that she has filed the papers to run for President and will make an official announcement shortly.

The announcement makes Michele Bachmann the only woman running for the nomination this year and the first Republican woman to ever run for the Republican presidential nomination.

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Bachmann Needs to the Pull the Knife Out of Palin’s Back

Bookmark and Share   After hiring controversial veteran Republican strategist Ed Rollins, it is expected that Minnesota Congresswoman and Congressional TEA Party Caucus Chair Michele Bachmann, will at any time announce her candidacy for the Republican presidential nomination. If she does run, while Bachmann could very well prove to be formidable in early nominating contests like Iowa and South Carolina, her plight to become the Republican presidential nominee will be far from easy. Now, thanks to her new loose cannon political operative, Ed Rollins, that plight has just gotten much harder.

On a radio show hosted by Fox News’ Brian Kilmeade, Rollins took the opportunity to trash Sarah Palin.

In addition to claiming “Sarah has not been serious over the last couple of years,” Rollins stated “She [Palin] got the Vice Presidential thing handed to her, she didn’t go to work in the sense of trying to gain more substance, she gave up her governorship.”

Rollins who was up until recently an operative for Mike Huckabee, claimed that now that Mike Huckabee’s not in the race, in terms of the Republican running for President, Bachmann is “probably the best communicator” He also added “Michele Bachmann and others worked hard, she has been a leader of the Tea Party which is a very important element here, she has been an attorney, she has done important things with family values.”

And Sarah Palin hasn’t?

At 68, perhaps Rollins is losing what good judgment he has left. His claim that Palin “has not been serious” is not only an utterly ludicrous charge, it is a very politically dumb and strategically damaging statement for him to make. Millions ….. “millions”… of Americans take Sarah Palin quite seriously and they take her efforts to elect limited government, family values oriented, fiscal conservatives who have an appreciation for the U.S. Constitution, very seriously.

As for the charge that Palin can’t be taken seriously because she was, as he argues, simply handed the vice presidential

Ed Rollins

nomination in 2008 and then gave up her governorship, perhaps Rollins memory is slipping. I guess he forgets all the legitimate reasons why Palin was picked to run for Vice President. Some of those reasons include her willingness to oppose and defeat a popular sitting Governor from her own Party after rooting out corruption and standing up for justice. Another reason includes her defense and promotion of family values and her ability to govern as a Mayor and a Governor in a way that was fiscally responsible and legislatively efficient.

As for her giving up the governorship, Rollins should really avoid using the propaganda of liberals to promote one conservative and denounce another. As unbelievable as it may seem to Rollins, Palin is not your average politician. She brings to her politics a level of sincerity that is rarely seen in the D.C. beltway that Ed Rollins is familiar with. And it is that sincerity which forced Palin to decide that stepping down was the best thing for the state of Alaska because it would have allowed her very capable Lieutenant Governor to continue the business of the state, unhindered by the ridiculous number of expensive, time consuming, frivolous lawsuits that liberals were relentlessly attacking Palin with.

Ever since she was nominated for Vice President and delivered some energy to the lackluster campaign of John McCain, the left lost all self control and could not give up on trying to tear Palin apart. She embodies everything the left fears in a conservative. And so they undertook an assault on Palin that she believed was not in the best interest of the people Alaska. So instead, she allowed Sean Parnell, the Lieutenant Governor, to take the reigns of power and run with the agenda she set, but to do so unincumbered by the liberal effort to take Palin down. Palin could have easily thought of what might have been best for her personal political career. But she didn’t. Instead she put the people first. And when it was all said and done, what new responsibility did Palin undertake? She set out on a mission to help insure that in 2010, true conservatives got elected to positions as Senator, Congressmen and Governors.

Rollins may not want to see it that way. But it is obvious that he doesn’t want to see the truth. The truth makes Sarah Palin the greatest threat to Michele Bachmann’s popularity and success that there is.  So instead Rollins resorts to trash talk.

But that’s Ed Rollins. For as good as he once was….and he was good, Rollins has also shown a penchant for putting his foot in his mouth.

In 1993, after working on the upset victory of Christine Todd Whitman over New Jersey Governor Jim Florio, Rollins deposited himself right into in the middle of a scandal that involved political campaign payoffs to New Jersey ministers. He told Time Magazine

“We went into black churches and we basically said to ministers who had endorsed Florio, ‘Do you have a special project?’ And they said, ‘We’ve already endorsed Florio.’ We said, ‘That’s fine, don’t get up on the Sunday pulpit and preach. We know you’ve endorsed him, but don’t get up there and say it’s your moral obligation that you go on Tuesday to vote for Jim Florio.'”

He later tried to backtrack by claiming his original statement was an exaggeration.

This latest gaffe, only enforces the perception that Rollins is losing it.  For someone who was hired to promote Bachmann, in just a few moments of air time, he has hurt her far more than he has helped.  One need to go no further than Michele’s Facebook page to see evidence of that.

In just a matter of hours since Rollins comments came out, hundreds of Face book “Fans” have begun to turn on the Congresswoman. For instance there was this from Allen Pishotta:

“Why have you stabbed Sarah Palin in the back after all she did for you last year? Why have you forsaken the Tea Party Movement in order to become a “stalking horse” for Mitt Romney and yes we all know that you are working for the RINO Romney campaign so it is no secret. What was the political bribe needed to become a “Judas” and sell …conservatives out? I once heavily supported you now I will never give you another dime after this. You nickname is now Michele “Backstabbing” Bachmann because that is what you did.”

And this from Doreen Graney:

“Hey, Michelle, the last time Ed Rollins was part of a winning campaign my oldest son was a newborn baby. Today is his 30th birthday. Hope you’re not paying him much. You won’t be getting any support from me, financial or otherwise.”

Sue Lynn writes:

“Lost my support….Your just another politician…Backstabbing a good friend that helped you get re-elected…So much for that Christian talk you talk about…sure don’t practice it…I will never support you in the future because of your actions to a good friend”

Jolyn Colon demands an apology and states:

“Ed Rollins has a reputation for being a bomb thrower. Did you know that when you hired him? You need to step up personally and 1.) issue an apology to Sarah and 2.) fire this idiot before he steps in it again. Anything else is not good enough.”

And Gary Jackson was particularly mad:

“Michele, Sarah Palin and her millions of supporters have ALWAYS had your back. ALWAYS! Now you go hire one of the biggest scum bags on earth to run your campaign and the first thing he does is trash Sarah Palin.

You realize you have effectively ended any chance you ever had at ever being elected, right?

Good luck winning your House se…at again without any Palinista support and $$$$

What a pathetic loser you are.”

Most offhand comments usually have a short political shelf life. So very often statements like those made by Rollins,  which inspired the type of anymosity seen in the words above, are normally healed by time. But that is not the case here. Unless Michele Bachmann makes some very substantial overtures to Palin  and isnure that not only are Rollins’ remarks are retracted, but that she in no way shares his thinking about Palin, Bachmann will be seriously hurt by this. As Republican red as Palin supporters are, they are also true blue to Palin and quite defensive of her.  After witnessing over two years of endless, unfair, attacks on her and her family, Palin’s supporters have a right to be defensive. And they especially have a right to defend her against one who is suppose to be on their side.

Ed Rollin’s remarks were incredibly stupid, in every way. Politically, he alienated Palin supporters, the very people who could have easily been backers of Bachmann if Palin does not run, and cost Bachmann that potential support .  And there was absolutely no reason for that. Just this past Sunday, when Sarah Palin was asked by Fox News’ Chris Wallace, if there was room for her and Michele Bachmann in the 2012 Republican presidential race, Palin gave Bachmann credit for having stregths of her own that she would bring to the race, and went on to say that Bachmann would be a welcome addition to the race…. “the more the merrier” said Palin.

Unlike Rollins, who claims that Palin is “not serious”, in that answer, Palin proved to be more politically savvy than Rollins, a so called political expert. Well now it is time for Michele Bachmann to show how politically savvy she is. Does she have the ability to correct the wrong done to her by her own political consultant? Short of firing him, Palin supporters may not ever believe so.

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Michele Bachmann’s Ready To Announce Her Candidacy for President

Bookmark and Share White House 2012 had previously made clear that the month of May, would begin to set the Republican race for President in stone. Most potential candidates had indicated at the latest, a June deadline for their decisions. As such, any of them who were leaning towards announcing their candidacy, would more than likely have to make some preparation that would not go unnoticed by either the media, political insiders, or both. That is now the case with Minnesota Congresswoman Michele Bachmann.

The recent decisions by Donald Trump and most especially Mike Huckabee, seem to have taken her from giving a run some serious consideration, to being sure that she will run.

According to political reporter and analysts Chris Stirewalt, on Monday, on the heels of both Huckabees and Trumps decisions not to run for President, advisors to Congresswoman Bachmann let it be know that she is likely to jump in to the race and that she has begun searching for pollsters, consultants and all the other necessary staff components for a presidential campaign. According to Stirewalt, one D.C. based consultant close to Bachmanns camp said This is now beyond speculation. They are doing this.

I have been leery of Michele Bachmanns intentions to run for President in 2012. This is not based on any disapproval of the Congresswoman. To the contrary, it was based on a hope of for the longevity of her ability to be a maverick political forceon the inside of the system.

Beyond two of the first three nominating contests, I fear that the Congresswomans chances of winning enough primaries and caucuses were out of her reach. Bachmann can and probably will do quite well in the early contests of Iowa and South Carolina. These two states are uniquely ripe for her character and politics. And as is Bachmann, these two states are strongly influenced by evangelical principles and activism. In fact they are dominated by evangelical forces, especially in the case of Republican politics. But once the campaign moves beyond Iowa, and South Carolina, that influence which is a strong suit for the Congresswoman, will become more and more diluted. This is especially true in contests outside of the Southern Bible Belt.

Even New Hampshires primary, which falls in between the Iowa Caucus and the South Carolina Primary election, Bachmann is not likely to do very well. But a loss there would certainly derail her candidacy. New Hampshire id a state closely connected to Mitt Romney and he expected to be the winner there. Besides, if Bachmann could bookend a loss in New Hampshire with wins in Iowa and South Carolina, New Hampshire will be nothing more than a bump in the road.

After South Carolina, Bachmann will still have a fair shot at Florida, another state that has a highly active evangelical Republican structure. But here Bachmann will begin to struggle with a the more diverse electorates of the more heavily populated states in the nation. Ultimately, I believe that while Bachmann will start strong I do not believe that she will finish strong and in the end, not win the Republican presidential nomination. It is for that reason, that I have doubted Bachmanns willingness to run for a nomination that she is less likely to win than lose and give up her seat in the House of Representatives in the process.

Recent events though, shed some light on why Michele Bachmann might be inclined to not seek reelection in the House.

Bachmann knows that in 2012, with president Obama at the top of the ticket, Democrats are going to target her. The Congresswoman is a thorn in the lefts side and so in addition to wanting to try to take enough seats to recapture control of the House, they would love to do so by ridding themselves of Republican firebrands like her. But Bachmann has never shied away from a tough race and she has usually prevailed. This time though, in addition to being targeted by Democrats, Bachmann will be a victim of redistricting. How much her district will be redrawn is not yet established, but no matter how it is drawn, she will have to campaign for reelection among voters that are new to her and those voters will probably not be as conservative as they are in her district as it currently exists.

The combination of the knowledge that Bachmann will be damaged by redistricting and that she will be a top target by Democrats and President Obama himself, may account for Bachmanns willingness to choose a run for President over standing for reelection to Congress. Additionally; there is nothing to say that if the Congresswomans presidential campaign starts to wane early enough, she could always pull out of the race in time to file her papers for reelection to her current House seat.

So Bachmann may not have much to lose by running for President while at the same time, she could have much to gain. Her presidential candidacy will advance the issues that are important to her. It will also raise her visibility and national ID which in turn will elevate her level of influence in conservative circles.

If Bachmann does in fact run, while she may not have the best chance at winning the nomination, her candidacy will certainly have a large effect on who is or isnt the nominee. In many ways, Congresswoman Bachmann could play the same role in the 2012 nomination contest that Mike Huckabee played in the 2008 contests. She could be strong enough to attract enough votes from other candidates like Rick Santorum, Jon Huntsman, Newt Gingrich, Tim Pawlenty, and/or Mitch Daniels, to allow Mitt Romney to win.

That is the effect that Mike Huckabee had in 2008. He attracted enough votes away from Mitt Romney, to make it possible for John McCain to ultimately win the nomination. And like Mike Huckabee, now that he is out of the race, Congresswoman Bachmann could easily win the Iowa Caucuses. At the very least, this could all help delay the emergence of a clear frontrunner.

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Michele Bachmann; “I Am In for 2012”

Bookmark and Share Speaking this weekend at a meeting of NICHE, the Network of Iowa Christian Home Educators, Congresswoman Bachmann looked and sounded like a candidate for President as she spoke of broadly articulated themes of independence and American exceptionalism thatwere based on the free power of the people, not the sweeping authority of federal bureaucracy.

She addressed the home schooling audience as one of them, a home schooling parents. The Congresswoman essentially to tied her stump speech into the theme of the event by claiming that just as the sovereignty of parents is being encroached upon by the state, so is the sovereignty of our nation. For the speech in it’s entirety, see below.

Bachmann continues to try to endear herself to Iowans by accentuating her Iowa roots and calling herself an Iowegian, one of the many people in Iowa who are of Norwegian ancestry and have helped turn Iowa in to the breadbasket of the nation.

But it was in her closing statement that she really sounded like a the hopeful owner of a lottery ticket who knows you gotta’ be in it to win it, as she proclaimed;

“This is the indispensable nation. And so I ask you will you consider these words as you look forward to 2012. Whether you are willing to be in, and whether you are willing to lay it on the line. I believe you are. I know that I am. I am in for 2012 to make sure that that torch of liberty is not extinguished on our watch because Lincoln was right. We can’t trust the politicians. We can only trust the politicians.”

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From Des Moines, Bachmann Says She Is Encouraged To Run for President

Bookmark and Share During her 5 day swing through Iowa, in a live interview with Fox News from Des Moines, Minnesota Congresswoman Michele Bachmann confirmed being encouraged by the level of support she is receiving in the early caucus and primary states of Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina. Bachmann states that ultimately she and her husband must make a decision based upon whether or not they truly feel running for President at this time is the right thing to do. That decision is expected to come in a matter of weeks.

When asked if Bachmann could ultimately be competitive with President Obamas expected $1 billon in campaign funds, if she decides to run, the Congresswoman believes that she can. She points out that in the 2010 election cycle, she broke all fundraising records for members of Congress by raising more money than all others. She is also quick to point out that from what shes seen among the electorate, the atmosphere is right for making sure that President Obama is a one term President.

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Bachmann Barnstorms Iowa for 5 Days Straight

Bookmark and Share Michele Bachmann is using the one week recess that Congress is in, for a five day campaign style tour of Iowa, the state that holds the nations first presidential caucus.

So far her tentative schedule is as follows:

Wednesday:

  • Speech at the state Capitol building in Des Moines for a Christian home school educators event,
  • Speech at another home school event at a Des Moines hotel.

Thursday:

  • Numerous private meetings
  • 5 :00pm EST, Bachmann will hold Facebook town hall
  • Meet and Greet at Iowa Renewal Project’s event at the Sheraton in West Des Moines
  • Hold an after-dinner reception for the Iowa Renewal Project

Friday:

  • Private meetings

Saturday:

  • Speaking at the Conservative Principles Conference in Des Moines
  • Many other to be announced stops and impromptu gatherings will take place.

Bachmann is slated to fly out of Iowa, late Saturday.

The Congresswomans staff intends to provide a live stream of her public events on her website

Bachmann has repeatedly said that she wants to make sure that she helps to shape the national debate that goes during the time leading up to the presidential election. The statement allows for defining her intentions of 5 days of campaigning in Iowa with a broad brush, but to place this much emphasis on trying to structure the debate in one particular state, is enough to suggest that she is looking hard at trying to shape that debate as a candidate for the Republican presidential nomination.

If Bachmann were to run, her greatest impact would likely take place in Iowa where a strong evangelical base is particularly in tune with and supportive of Bachmanns conservative social values as well as her conservative fiscal thinking and TEA Party message. However, even if she were to win the Iowa caucus, her lead will likely be short lived as the campaign moves to New Hampshire and beyond where other candidates with greater regional appeal than Bachmann will be much more competitive.

That short-lived success could help benefit one potential Republican candidate most. That would be Mitt Romney.

Romneys campaign is in the race for the long haulyet a win for him in Iowa is going to be rough. But if someone like Michele Bachmann were to split the Iowa Caucus vote between contenders like Pawlenty, Huckabee and Barbour, Romney would be dealt a chance to finish better than expected. And should Bachmann happen to win in Iowa, that too will help Romney. The Congresswoman is not likely to last much further than South Carolina and so if she were to prevent other long term candidates such as Mike Huckabee, or Haley Barbour from getting a lock on frontrunner status, it will make it much easier for Romney to do as the nomination contest moves beyond South Carolina.

Perhaps the biggest question to all this though, are the plans of Sarah Palin. Palin would be another candidate in this for long haul and if she were to decide to run, it could be the decisive factor that makes Bachmann decide not to run. Palin and Bachmann essentially appeal to the same base and both are TEA Party favorites who could significantly dilute their effects on the election if they split that vote between one another.

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Bachmann’s Eventful Swing Through New Hampshire

Bookmark and ShareMinnesota Congresswoman recently embarked upon a two day swing through New Hampshire. The tour was filled with campaign-like stops at everything from a local diner, to a GOP fundraiser.

In the speech provided in the video below, Congresswoman Bachmann addresses a New Hampshire Republican State Committee fundraiser in Nashua. Here she addressed everything from liberal spending on things like Cowboy poetry festivals, to haphazardly issuing Obamacare waivers to states like Maine.

Also at this stop was a few moments of disruption by protesters who suddenly began chanting, “Michele Bachmann, we insist. End the AIDS treatment waiting list.” The reference was to the policy by cash trapped states to stop or reduce funding of the AIDS drugs distribution program. In some cases state’s are creating waiting lists for AIDS patients to go on before they can get assistance for the very expensive drugs they need.

At a separate event in Nashua, Bachmann began to talk about the principles which found our nation and referenced Lexington and Concord and the historic battle that occurred their, to have taken place New Hampshire. The events actually took place in neighboring Massachusetts. On Saturdaqy Bachmann acknowledged the gaffe in a twitter statement that read;

“So I misplaced the battles Concord and Lexington by saying they were in New Hampshire. It was my mistake, Massachusetts is where they happened. New Hampshire is where they are still proud of it!”

Of all that took place and was said during Bachmann’s, this gaffe is what will be getting the headlines and most of the attention among the left. But as a reminder to them I present the following video of a man once who Senator Barack Obama. While running for President he infamously elevated the number of states in the Union. And apparently all those extra states voted for him too. Oh wait…. that was ACORN.

For a more detailed history of President Obama’s incredible oratory skills and knowledge, see the video below;

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Bachmann Enters New Hampshire and Moves Closer to Presidential Run

Bookmark and Share Congresswoman Michele Bachmann has today begun a two day swing through the first in the nation primary state of New Hampshire. The trip is her first foray into the Live Free or Die State since speculation about her becoming a presidential campaign began in earnest this past January.

Bachmanns New Hampshire trip is one that is rich in its courting of the states conservative and TEA Party base vote. On her agenda are events that include the attendance of a New Hampshire Republican State Committee fundraising event in Nashua, the giving of a keynote speech at a fundraiser for the Granite State Patriots Liberty PAC , a reception of the Republican Liberty Caucus of New Hampshire, a meet and greet whistle-stop style campaign event at a popular New Hampshire diner and a private fundraiser hosted by the Director of Development and Business Relations for the New Hampshire Republican Party.

Joining Bachmann on this trip will be her husband and three of her 5 biological and 23 foster cared children.

According CNNs Peter Hamby, aides close to Bachmann claim that the Congresswoman is leaning towards a run for the Republican presidential nomination but in previous statements, the Congresswoman has been less committal and only stated that she is not ready to make a decision one or the other yet but is not closing any doors. Bachmann makes the point of that whether she runs or not, she intends to make sure that she helps shape the presidential debate and insure that the important issues are addressed.

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