Obama’s Popularity Problem

Facebook, the popular IPO that was going to turn millions of online junkies into billionaires overnight, has turned out to be a bust.  Obama could be heading in the same direction.

In 2008, one of the things that drove voters to the polls was Obama’s slick ad campaign and pure popularity.  He was like the cheerleading captain on prom night.  The title was wrapped up before the campaign even began.  But this time around, there is rumbling in the clique and Obama is in danger of losing that edge.

In Kentucky, Obama nearly lost his primary battle to nobody.  The finally tally came in as Obama 58%, nobody 42%.  Even for a Democrat in Kentucky, that’s a pretty sad showing for an incumbent.  In Arkansas, Obama lost a significant share of the vote to Democrat John Wolfe who ran on repealing Obamacare.  Wolfe should have some convention delegates from his performance, but embarrassed Democrats have already threatened to strip the delegates.  It would be kinda like if the quarterback was caught kissing the girl at the library.

Obama is so unpopular that even populist RINOs like Colin Powell haven’t decided to support him yet in 2012.

Obama still runs a pretty good and slick ad campaign.  Although as I’ve highlighted previously, he must lie profusely to find anything that doesn’t sound completely embarrassing to say.  For example, he found a way to turn 2.5 million jobs lost into millions of jobs gained.  I can’t blame him for making up his record instead of running on reality.  If being born Kenyan sells more copies to his racist liberal friends, then I suppose he won’t hesitate to be a tax cutting, job creating President in his ads if it will win more votes.

One final note, and on a somewhat different subject, I’d like to give a shout out to Bill Maher.  Maher, one of Obama’s biggest donors, is a comedian with a BA from Cornell in English and History.  I guess that’s better than the fake school I graduated from (Liberty University) where they only teach one side of every issue and the students are mind numbed robots.  I guess that’s why the Liberty debate team has claimed their fourth national CEDA championship in a row after taking nine consecutive ADA championships. I don’t think Cornell even placed.  Bill, saying that Liberty is not really a college because it is a private Christian university was basically the equivalent of saying the University of Florida hasn’t had a football program because Tebow was their quarterback.  Oops.

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Trunkline 2012: Wednesday’s Campaign Tidbits

A roundup of todays tidbits from the campaign trail;

Bookmark and ShareWednesday, February 2, 2011

For previous previous Trunkline 2012 daily tidbits visit here

The Season of Sarah

If you are a C-Span junkie like me, then tonight was a great night.  Palin backed TEA Party Candidate Christine O’Donnell gave a speech at the Family Research Counsel’s Values Voter Summit, fresh off a surprise upset win in Delaware.  Next up, cameras cut to Iowa for Sarah Palin’s keynote speech at the annual Ronald Reagan dinner.  The Values Voter Summit straw poll results will be released this weekend and Palin may receive higher marks than we would have expected even a week ago.

There is no question the momentum is on her side.  While the mainstream still does not like Palin, primary victories in Alaska, Kentucky, Nevada, New York, and Delaware have earned her the respect even mainstream conservatives had previously refused to give.  Of course, she has made some odd enemies along the way, including possibly Karl Rove and Charles Krauthhammer who are not yet believers.  November will be the ultimate testing ground.

Sarah Palin goes to Iowa

So with this recent success, and a much more polished presentation, is Palin ready to take another shot at the big time?  She indicated to Fox News that she is.  Most candidates don’t let the cat out of the bag two years ahead of time, but Palin said in a recent Fox News interview that, “If the American people were to be ready for someone who is willing to shake it up, and willing to get back to time-tested truths, and help lead our country towards a more prosperous and safe future and if they happen to think I was the one, if it were best for my family and for our country, of course I would give it a shot.”

These may seem like a lot of caveats, but for a potential candidacy statement two years before the election it is significant.  November will be the huge test to see if conservative primary victories can translate into conservative general election victories.  After that, we will have to see if Palin can keep Americans engaged without causing fatigue.  One thing is for sure, as she racks up the conservative victories and the left continues to flounder, Palin is looking less like a right wing radical and more like a mainstream possibility.

Rand Paul – Sweet Spot or Easy Target?

Bookmark and Share    In 2008 we were introduced to the Ron Paul Revolution.  Everyone from right-wing libertarians to hardcore liberals were donning Revolution shirts.  Ron Paul, a staunch pro-lifer and limited government candidate, gained support from right-wingers who were tired of bailouts, debt and big government.  As an anti-war candidate, he drew in many Bush hating moderates and liberals whose biggest beef was the Iraq war.

Despite stocking conventions and straw polls with loud, rambunctious supporters, Ron Paul remained a second tier candidate throughout the primary and eventually refused a third party run.  The biggest hit Ron Paul took was from establishment Republicans and supporters of the war on terror.  Many of us viewed his protectionist ideas as nice on paper, but naive after 9/11.

2010 Kentucky Senate Candidate Rand Paul

Enter Rand Paul in 2010.  Dr. Rand Paul is running for the Kentucky Senate seat previously held by Jim Bunning.  Paul is running against state attorney general Jack Conway.  So is he a viable 2012 candidate simply because he shares the family name?

Rand’s family name will certainly help usher him into the spotlight and could attract many of the libertarians, independents and moderates who who loved his father,  however the very thing that made his father so popular with those groups will make Rand popular with his own party.  Rand is not as protectionist like his father.  Rand’s views on war and national defense may not match up with the so-called Neocon view of spreading freedom or the Bush doctrine, but he does understand the importance of winning the wars we are in.  He also supports a strong national defense as the number one constitutional job of the federal government.

Rand Paul’s doctrine is one of Conservative Constitutionalism.  With an eye on returning to the Constitution, staunch pro-life stance, and fiscal conservatism, Rand Paul will be a darling of the Right.  At the same time, his message of limited government, relegating social issues to the states, desire to shed light on the Federal Reserve, and anti-UN stance will continue to attract Libertarians.  Finally, just like his father, his genuineness and political prowess may capture the hearts of many non-political, average Americans.

So is Rand Paul a potential sweet spot candidate for the Republican party?  He must be doing something right because of the attacks he has already faced on a national level.  For example, Rand Paul believes in constitutional limits on the Federal government.  For him, that means the government cannot legislate racial equality in people’s minds and should not force private individuals with private businesses to serve people they don’t want to.  In the minds of his opponents, it means that Rand Paul is a racist who believes blacks should drink at different fountains, and they have been very effective at leveling this attack.

Rand Paul also opposes abortion, even in the case of rape and incest.  However, he supports use of the morning after pill.  These two views are enough to give everyone on every side of the abortion debate enough ammo to gun him down.  On the other hand, the average American who opposes abortion, taxpayer funded abortion, and especially taxpayer funding of overseas abortion still elected President Obama, and Obama supports all three.

It is too early to tell if this Conservative Constitutionalist will be a 2012 contender.  At this point he has less political experience than our current President.  My guess is that he will make an attractive Vice President pick.  Paul’s political future has two speed bumps before we can get a clearer picture.  The big one is winning his 2010 Senate campaign.  The second is Steve Beshear’s 2011 governor’s race.  If Democrat Beshear wins a second term, Rand Paul may not be willing to sacrifice his seat in a tightly controlled Senate.  In Kentucky, the governor fills Senate vacancies.

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