Ron Paul to Announce in January

Ron Paul, Matt Collins and Rand Paul

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It was leaked late last evening that Ron Paul will be running for President and will announce in January 2011. The leak came from Paul insider Matt Collins. For those who don’t know, Matt Collins is the name behind much of the online success of Ron Paul and now also his son Rand Paul. A look through the bylines of Ron Paul articles will turn up Collins’ name again and again. So, a leak from Collins on Ron Paul is more than likely sound.

It’s the timing of this leak that raises questions. Why now? If it is a planned leak, then there must be a good reason to leak it now. So, what’s the plan? Paul is still running for re-election to his House seat and his son is campaigning hard for the open Senate seat in TN. Bringing up a run for the Presidency right now seems like a bit of a distraction from more pressing concerns.

With Ron Paul already being a politician and able to accept campaign donations, there is no need to leak intentions in order to raise money. He also still has his network in place, so a leak isn’t needed to prevent potential backers and supporters from getting sucked into a different campaign. None of the normal reasons for a planned leak seem to exist in this case.

The leak may indeed be true, but I have my doubts that Ron Paul directed Collins to make it. I doubt Ron Paul wants to steal any media coverage away from his son Rand at this time. It is more likely that all the recent candidate posturing was more than Collins could watch without saying something about his candidate. Now the story is out and it is buried by bigger stories and if it does get reported in the major media, it will be linked to Rand Paul’s campaign a serve as a distraction.

Ron Paul’s 2012 bid is being fumbled from the start. While his core supporters will cheer the leak and be oblivious to the poor timing, the vast majority of voters that Paul needs to win over will be that much harder to engage. A candidate’s announcement (leaked or official) is a key component in getting the message out and capturing a news cycle. Paul has lost that opportunity through this weak leak. He now has an even more uphill battle to capture the attention of the voters who will have that attention sought by more well-timed and packaged announcements from the other candidates.

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