Today should be it

Mitt Romney should easily sweep a handful of blue states today, including New York and Pennsylvania.  If he does, I think the staunchest of conservative holdouts are ready to call it for Romney.  The only thing that will change the trajectory of the primary at this point would be if Romney’s performance is weak in any of these states.

Is that possible?  To a certain extent.  With Romney already the presumptive nominee, media coverage of the April 24th primaries has been minimal.  Additionally, any inhibition towards voting one’s conscience should be gone.   Romney’s refocusing on Obama is certainly not unwarranted confidence, but does signal an end to his scorched earth campaign that ravished his closest rivals.

Will Gingrich show any sort of proof of life in New York, Pennsylvania, Delaware, Connecticut, or Rhode Island?  Don’t count on it.  To be sure, there is a conservative underground in each of these states, most strongly in Pennsylvania.  But at the same time, they have been so marginalized by the liberal culture that “most conservative who can actually win” is deeply engrained.

My prediction is that Newt doesn’t break 40% in any of these states.  If that is the case, I am ready to call the 2012 primary for Mitt Romney.  However, if Newt can somehow mitigate his losses and mathematically survive today, he has some friendly states coming up in May.  He may still not survive to the convention fight he is counting on, but he would have a chance.  And something he hasn’t tasted in months: momentum.

Bad News for Romney?

Romney declared today to be a good day for his campaign.  The media easily agreed, following their template that Romney is already the nominee.  However, the good news may end up being all for Gingrich.  The long dead in the water conservative finally has what he has needed for a second resurgence: no competition for the social conservative vote.

In fact, Newt made the point today that he would love to get Santorum’s delegates.  Newt is right, he is far closer to what Santorum’s delegates want than Romney.  While Romney is far away ahead of both candidates on their own, together their delegates number more than 400.

Gingrich’s next hope for a good day won’t come until May 8th, and Romney is sure to sweep the blue states that vote on April 24th.  In fact, nearly certain victories in New York, Pennsylvania, Connecticut, Delaware, and Rhode Island could seal the deal.

On the other hand, Gingrich could start a come back in Indiana and could win North Carolina and West Virginia with some hard work.  In fact, May should favor the remaining social conservative, culminating with the 155 delegates in Texas.  May could be enough to provide Gingrich with the convention floor battle he’s been hoping for.

On the other hand, without a strong ground game, and with limited funds and no media recognition that he even still exists, Newt may never have a chance at realizing the potential the Santorum exit has given him.

Cain, Gingrich Make Headlines; Paul’s Missed Opportunity

Cain’s Race Card

I have no respect for candidates who play the race card, and so far Cain hasn’t.  In what is an obvious smear against Herman Cain, the candidate has not resorted to what the left finds so natural.  In fact, Cain traced the allegations back to a former campaign staffer who was hired by Rick Perry as Kempite wrote earlier this week.  This hasn’t stopped Cain’s supporters from making the connection.  After Clarence Thomas and the racism that blacks on the right have experienced, the attacks on Herman Cain for doing some undisclosed thing to some anonymous women is just enough to get any conservative’s blood boiling.

This is especially true when you look at how the media has portrayed the whole thing.  Immediately questions were being asked about if there was a double standard on the right because conservatives were not as upset with Cain for having allegedly done something to someone as they were when it came out that Bill Clinton had an affair with an intern (Monica Lewinsky), possibly raped a woman (Juanita Broderick), sexually harassed a woman (Gennifer Flowers), lied about it under oath (like Scooter Libby, who lost his career and faced jail time), and coached witnesses (obstruction of justice).  Of course, Bill Clinton also kept his job as President.

The attack on Herman Cain is already starting to backfire on both the media and the left.  And finally, Uncle Tom is getting the attention it deserves as an often used racist “codeword”.

Gingrich Keeps Rising

There is plenty to be negative about on the GOP field.  But there is also plenty to be positive about and that is the angle Newt has used to kickstart his second wind in this race.  The Hill questions the wisdom of Gingrich’s refusal to go negative on his fellow candidates.  I think he is making the best decision.  While Mitt Romney gets torn down by the Social Conservatives, and Cain and Perry continue to duel, Gingrich has been slowly sneaking back into the top tier through his focus on Obama and better ideas.

In fact, I gained interesting perspective from my vacation in Connecticut.  No matter where I go, red state or blue state, and who I talk to, I get the same response on Gingrich.  He is the smartest man in the room.  He knows what he is talking about.  He has the best ideas.  We would pay money to see him debate Obama and enjoy every minute of it.  But he has baggage.  In fact, Newt entered this race with the most personal baggage.  But now voters are taking a new look at the man who reigned in Bill Clinton and produced balanced budgets and record growth, two things our country desperately needs.  Depending on how Cain’s unnamed issues with unnamed people turns out, Newt could end up being the cleanest of the top tier candidates.  Every debate makes him look better and better.

Paul Could Be A 3rd Party Winner

I love talking politics with friends and family.  Actually, I just plain love talking politics.  It is always interesting to hear different perspectives, often from where you least expect it.  Well, here’s one for you: Ron Paul could win some electoral votes as a third party candidate by running in blue states.  In many blue states, it is not so much a matter of fiscal liberalism winning out over fiscal conservatism.  In some cases it is a matter of social liberalism overriding fiscal conservatism.

The fear of a Paul third party run has been that he would steal votes from the Republican candidate.  But Paul would actually have a hard time winning any red state in a national election.  On the other hand, put Paul with his limited social conservatism and strong fiscal conservatism and anti-war stance into California, New England, New York and other blue states, and he has a message that would resonate.

Part of Paul’s problem though is missed opportunities.  Ron Paul is like a cult classic movie.  Low budget, but adored to the point of insanity by many.  In 2008, there were Revolution signs strewn across the country in conservative and liberal districts alike.  Somehow Paul supporters manage to stack every conservative straw poll that comes out.  Yet Paul has failed over and over to convert that ravenous support into electoral votes.  Now, put Paul in to states like Connecticut, Vermont, and Maine where a Social Conservative will never win but there is a strong libertarian under current, and Ron Paul could have a huge impact in the general election.  For the Libertarian movement, winning even one state could be a huge victory for their future.

 

Martinez, Gregg, and Grimm Endorsements Giving Romney an Edge

  Bookmark and Share  Republican presidential hopeful Mitt Romney received two high profile endorsements today.  One each in the two key early primary states of New Hampshire and Florida.  He also received a third endorsement from a less visible but equally as important freshman Congressman.

In New Hampshire, Judd Gregg, a popular former Governor and three term Senator from the Granite State announced his support
of Romney, and in Florida, former Senator and RNC Chairman Mel Martinez did the same.

Also today, Romney picked up the endorsement of freshman Congressman Michael Grimm.

His endorsement may not attract as much news as Gregg’s and Martinez’s public support but as a former Republican operative in Grimm’s congressional districts which spans Staten Island and Brooklyn, I can tell you, that Grimm’s support is just as important.

Grimm took back the seat formerly held by disgraced Republican Congressman Vito Fossella.   In 2008, the seat went to a Democrat, but in 2010, Michael Grimm won it back for the G.O.P.   The district encompasses the most heavily Republican section of New York City ……all of Staten Island, and the Southwest portion of Brooklyn, which send one of the City’s only Republicans to the New York State Senate.   Beyond that, the political machine that Grimm represents and is controlled by former Congressman Guy Molinari, is an extremely heavy handed, Republican regime with a great deal of influence in the New York G.O.P.  This means that freshman Congressman Mike Grimm’s endorsement of Romney is an early signal of widespread organizational support.  In other words, Romney is locking New York up for himself.

This will help to dissuade others from forcing Romney to spend money on the New York presidential primary, a contest that because of its placement amid very expensive media markets, could be quite expensive.

New York could be important in the nomination process.  It offers 95 delegates, one of the largest in the nation. That’s only four less than Florida,
and because the Sunshine State has violated RNC rules by setting an earlier than allowed date for their primary, they could see their delegate count cut in half.

Unfortunately for Romney though, the New York presidential primary is not held until April 24th.  However; if the early primary contests do not
produce a clear frontrunner thereby allowing us to have a presumptive nominee, New York could be decisive.  In fact mark April 24th on your calendars.  On that day, New York will not be alone in holding its presidential primary.  For the first time, we the 2012 nomination contest will be experiencing a sort of Northeast version of the South’s Super Tuesday.  Call it a Northeast Mega Primary.  On that day 231 delegates will be up for grabs form among  5 Northeastern states:

  • Connecticut – 28 – Primary/Winner-Take-All– Closed
  • Delaware – 17 – Primary/Winner-Take-All– Closed
  • New York – 95 – Primary/Winner-Take-All– Closed
  • Pennsylvania– 72 – PrimaryLoophole Primary – Closed
  • Rhode Island – 19 – Primary/Proportional – Modified

If one of the candidates has not practically wrapped up the nomination by then, Romney could be the one to do it on that day. All 5 of those
states are largely fertile for a Romney.

So while Congressman Grimm’s endorsement may not grab the headlines that Gregg’s and Martinez’s endorsements will, it is as , or even more important.  In the case of Judd Gregg, while he is popular in New Hampshire, his electoral influence is debatable.  In 2000, Judd Gregg, then a sitting U.S. Senator from New Hampshire, endorsed Texas Governor George W. Bush for President and Senator John McCain wound up winning that primary.

Mel Martinez is a different story though.  While how much sway he still has among Florida’s voters is iffy, he does have the potential to influence important parts of the electorate there.  Particularly the higher than average  Cuban-American population. This can only help Romney in a state         where he will need all the help he can to fend off Herman Cain and Rick Perry.

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CD-9 New York Special Election: Udpdated Results

Bookmark and ShareHere you wil find updated election results for the CD-9 special election in New York. Updates will be provided at least every 10 minutes

 Based on the districts that are reporting in and projections that indicate there is not of enough of a vote to come in from the remaining districts White House 2012 and Politics 24/7 is calling this race for Republican Bob Turner

U.S. House – District 9 – Special General

442 of 512 Precincts Reporting – 86% 

 

Bob Turner                          —   GOP                32,212  — 53%

David Weprin                     —   Dem              27,460    — 46%

Christopher Hoeppner    — SWP                     277        –  0

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George Pataki Heads to Iowa to Address Republicans at the State Fair

Bookmark and Share   On Saturday, former New York Governor George Pataki is heading to Iowa where he will speak to those in attendance at the Polk County Republican picnic. The event is being held on the Iowa State fairgrounds.

The Governor has suggested that he will make a decision about a run for President in 2012 probably within the next week. If that is true, he is probably not heading all the way out to Iowa to announce he is not running. That could be done much more easily from his backyard or in a Twitter, like most all others are doing these days.

I won’t dare say whether Pataki will run or not. If I did, it would be only guess and besides I have been wrong to many times already about who will run. But I will say that it makes no sense for Pataki run. With Jon Huntsman running, there already is a moderate Republican Governor running in the form of former Utah Governor Jon Huntsman, and he’s not moving very much. We have even seen another relatively moderate Governor aggressively pursue the nomination and then suddenly drop out of the race because he too was not gaining any traction.

If the thinking is that the very large field of hardcore conservatives will be divided enough to allow a moderate to run up the middle and win the nomination, he’s wrong. If that scenario plays out, for anyone, it  will be Mitt Romney. But even Romney is doing his best to run as far to the right as possible. And why? Because Republicans do not want another McCain as there nominee. They want someone who will be as conservative enough for them to not doubt their commitment to the conservative cause. A New York Republican just doesn’t fit that bill.

What Pataki says this Saturday though, will nonetheless be interesting.

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Former New York Governor George Pataki to Announce His Decision About a Run For President

Bookmark and Share   As the need to make up their minds regarding whether to run for President or not approaches, the latest name to let us know that he will make a definitive decision soon is former New York Governor George Pataki.

According to NY1, (see video below) the former three term Republican Governor will announce his decision within a week. Not that there are a whole lot of people hoping and waiting for him to run. While the 66 year old Pataki served New York well during his tenure, his leadership was far from transformative and he would enter the race as one of the longest shots in the field so far. His fundraising capability is not extensive and pales in comparison to other Republican opponents such as Perry and Romney.

Pataki also lacks any great claim to fame or particular expertise and there is no particular opening in the existing field that he would be able to immediately fill.

While Pataki has made a few uneventful appearances in Iowa and New Hampshire over the past few months, his testing of the waters created few ripples. So all things considered, the only reason I see for Pataki to decide to run would be boredom.

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Rudy Giuliani: A Better Democrat Presidential Candidate Than Republican Presidential Candidate?

Giuliani in drag and the way social conservatives see him

Bookmark and Share  As Rudy Giuliani continues to pretend that he can be a viable candidate for President on the Republican ticket, on Sunday during CNN’s State of the Union, he told Candy Crowley “the Republican Party would be well advised to get the heck out of people’s bedrooms and let these things get decided by states”.

While Giuliani claimed that he believes marriage should be between a man and woman, he stated that the libertarian streak of the Republican party should want to avoid “getting involved in people’s sexual lives.”

The former New York City mayor and failed 2008 candidate for the Republican presidential nomination told Republicans to  “Stay out of it,” and added. “I think we’d {Republicans} be a much more successful political party if we stuck to our economic, conservative roots and our idea of a strong, assertive America that is not embarrassed to be the leader of the world.”

While there is a degree of truth in Giuliani’s remarks, the social conservative base of the G.O.P. will not appreciate hiss lack of defense of what they would consider family values. However during the interview, Giuliani did clarify that in trying to make sure that families stay strong, he believed marriage should be preserved as a union between a man and a woman. He went on to state that he disagreed with New York State’s recent legalization of gay marriage but added that it was based on a democratic vote and can live with it.

While Rudy supports civil unions, he also believes the issue should be left up to each of the fifty states to decide for themselves.

Rudy’s position on the issue is one which highlights what is essentially one of the G.O.P.’s most pressing ideological questions. If Republican conservatism is based largely on liberty and limited government, should a limited government actually make decisions that do not allow those who live in relationships that involve an alternative lifestyle to have those relationships receive equal treatment by the law and under a judicial system that is suppose to be blind to our differences? Or is the primary responsibility of Republican conservatism the mission to defend “traditional” family values regardless of how much government must get involved in attempts to do so?

Sooner or later, the Republican Partyis going to have to make this decision. However, in the case of Rudy Giuliani, it is not likely that he will be able to do much to sway the Party in his direction. Answering that question will likely require the leadership of truly respected conservative leaders who are more trusted by the right than the left. It will also require the generational influences that account for the progression of cultural change that accounts for the societal changes that are constantly evolving.

In the meantime, the G.O.P. as a whole must somehow keep itself forging ahead while trying to reconcile its limited government beliefs with its desire to involve government in legislating family values. All while applying the basic American tenet of creating laws that defend equality. Until this reconciliation is achieved the G.O.P. will risk losing a significant minority of followers and future followers to the libertarian cause.

As for Giuliani, the reality of the current G.O.P. would indicate that he might have a better chance of defeating President Obama in a race for the Democrat presidential nomination, than he has at winning the Republican presidential nomination.

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Donald Trump Fires His Own Presidential Ambitions

Bookmark and Share As promised, the month of May is producing a significant amount of clarity in the developing Republican presidential field. At the beginning of the month, Mississippi Governor Haley Barbour announced he would not run for President. This Saturday, former Governor Mike Huckabee declared that he would not be a candidate in 2012, and now we have learned that real estate mogul and reality TV star Donald Trump will not be running for President.

In an early afternoon statement released by the Trump organization, (see the complete press release below this post) The Donald indicated that his real passionand talent is for business and he is not yet willing to give itup for politics.

This announcement has left many ill-advisedTrump enthusiasts at a loss. Trump supporters were looking for a political outsider, with business experience and a say-it-like-is attitude. Now, withTrump definitely out of the running,his supportersjoin with the significant number of Huckabee supporters who have also been left without a candidate. If you believe current polls, Huckabee and Trump accounted for a third of all Republican voters. This third is now up for grabs and as they all look for a corner to run to, the perfect time for a new name to enter the race has been created.

It is fairly obvious that Huckabee and Trump voters are not pleased with any of the existing names in the Republican field. Now that they are unaligned, they are still not likely to be content of these names. However, as they look for a satisfactory alternative, candidates like Pawlenty, Santorum and Herman Cain could begin to appeal to these newly disenfranchised voters and lure them into their camps. That being the case, now is the perfect time for a new name to jump in and scoop up these wayward Huckabee and Trump voters before they align themselves with an another existing candidate.

As for Donald Trump’s decision, it was to be expected. White House 2012 has noted on several occasionsthat while Donald Trump may initiallybe a popular candidate, due to Trump’s nature and character, it would not have translated in to being a popular politician.Hispotential candidacy alsobrought with it an ability to do more harm than good to Republicans. Trump’s antics, unprofessionaluse of vulgarities, and total lack of finesse and diplomacy was arecipefor certain disaster that would have produced a sideshow-like atmosphere within the Republican nominating contests. This side-show would have been a debilitating distraction from the real issues anda from a serious search for a serious presidential candidateto run against President Obama.

In the end,while I have not been very kind to DonaldTrump and his political viability, I must admitthat his decisionnot to run, was a smart one, a smart one for him, for the G.O.P., and the nation.His statement announcing that he wouldnot be a candidate for president in 2012 seemed to be genuine. It reflected Trump’s own acceptance of who he really is and what he is best at.If DonaldTrump is nothing else, he is a personally successful individual. Such personal success does not come by acting impulsively or without an understanding of ones own capabilities. On this decision, Trump demonstratedthat he knows himself well.And while I am sure he truly gave running for president, serious consideration, I firmly believe thathe alsoknows just how serious he can take himself.

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Actual Trump Press Release

For Immediate Release:

New York, New York: May 16, 2011

After considerable deliberation and reflection, I have decided not to pursue the office of the Presidency. This decision does not come easily or without regret; especially when my potential candidacy continues to be validated by ranking at the top of the Republican contenders in polls across the country. I maintain the strong conviction that if I were to run, I would be able to win the primary and ultimately, the general election. I have spent the past several months unofficially campaigning and recognize that running for public office cannot be done half heartedly. Ultimately, however, business is my greatest passion and I am not ready to leave the private sector.

I want to personally thank the millions of Americans who have joined the various Trump grassroots movements and written me letters and e-mails encouraging me to run. My gratitude for your faith and trust in me could never be expressed properly in words. So, I make you this promise: that I will continue to voice my opinions loudly and help to shape our politician’s thoughts.

My ability to bring important economic and foreign policy issues to the forefront of the national dialogue is perhaps my greatest asset and one of the most valuable services I can provide to this country. I will continue to push our President and the country’s policy makers to address the dire challenges arising from our unsustainable debt structure and increasing lack of global competitiveness. Issues, including getting tough on China and other countries that are methodically and systematically taking advantage of the United States, were seldom mentioned before I brought them to the forefront of the country’s conversation.

They are now being debated vigorously. I will also continue to push for job creation, an initiative that should be this country’s top priority and something that I know a lot about. I will not shy away from expressing the opinions that so many of you share yet don’t have a medium through which to articulate.

I look forward to supporting the candidate who is the most qualified to help us tackle our country’s most important issues and am hopeful that, when this person emerges, he or she will have the courage to take on the challenges of the Office and be the agent of change that this country so desperately needs.

Thank you and God Bless America!

Donald J. Trump
Michael Cohen
Executive Vice President and
Special Counsel To Donald J. Trump

Trump Shrugged: The Donald Addresses South Florida Tea Party

Bookmark and Share On Saturday, sounding like a protagonist hero straight out of Ayn Rands Atlas Shrugged, Donald Trump electrified Tea Party enthusiasts at a rally sponsored by the South Florida Tea Party in Boca Raton. (see and hearthe complete speech on video below). Referring to President Obama with phrases like youre fired, and calling him the worst President in history, the reality TV star and real estate magnate drew great ruptures of applause with many one-liners but he spent much of his time boosting his ego and painting himself as the savior of a nation in decline.

Trump told the crowd “I have very high aptitude. I was a great student. I went to the best schools.” and “I’ve come out almost always as the victor, and I have to say that because, you know, I don’t want to be braggadocios, but that’s the kind of a person, whether it’s me or somebody else, the country needs as president.”

As has been the case lately, Trump did not leave out his questioning of President Obamas place of birth. but on policy, Trump did give some positions. He declared himself to be an anti-abortion, anti-gun control, conservative, who can handily win the Republican nomination for President if he decided to run. He described Americas infrastructure as third worldly and in desperate need. Trump also pledged that if he became President, he would not raise taxes, and that he would create “vast numbers of productive jobs” and “get rid of Obamacare”, which he called a total disaster.” At one point the political neophyte stated, “Considering the shape the United States is in right now, we need a competitor and a highly competent person to deal with what’s going on,” He later added: “If I run and win, our country will be respected again.” On foreign policy, Trump offered many criticisms of the U.S. and in a swipe at China he said that the United States should take control of Iraqi oil. He alsoremarked thateven though Japan has been “screwing us for 30 years”, helping them after the earthquake and tsunami was right thing to do and he added that the fact he felt that way demonstrated that he did indeed have a heart.

The crowd ate the entire performance up as Trump spoon fed them all the red meat that they could swallow. And thats fine. So long as somewhere down the road he starts issuing details and not Hollywood scripts. Because methinks Donald Trump is no Dagny Taggert, but his pop culture name recognition and television persona is making many others think that Trump has all the right stuff. Unfortunately for him though, year long political campaigns have a way of changing things and it has yet to be seen if Trumps stuff can withstand the political pressure and invasive public scrutiny that politics brings to the table. You have to remember that while both towns are a bit fake, Hollywood and Washington, D.C. are still worlds apart.

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Trump Stumps in Florida. But How Far Can He Really Go?

Bookmark and Share This Saturday, “The Donald”,will speak in Boca Raton, Florida, at an afternoon rally organized by the South Florida Tea Party.

What Trump will say is sure to fly with the anti-establishment crowed and it will certainly help both his television ratings and poll numbers. A recent Public Policy Polling survey already has Trump leading his closest potential rival for the Republican nomination, Mike Huckabee, by 9%. In that poll, following Huckabee who has 19%, are Mitt Romney, 15%, Newt Gingrich, 11%, Sarah Palin, 8%, and Ron Paul with 5%.

Other recent polls have Trump similarly positioned. The problem is that in the end, I suspect that both Trump and Huckabee will not be running. Trump will probably declare that the foolishness of the media makes it not worth running. As for Huckabee, he will most likely decide that his clemency of criminals who after they were released, raped and killed two women and killed 4 police officers, will be too much to overcome in a hotly contested race for President. And he would be right.

Taking Trump and Huckabee out of these polls, and the race, leaves Mitt Romney in the drivers seat.

While Trump is currently the candidate du jour, I am going out on a limb when I tell you that the light will dim on his star. What people are not realizing is that with a lack of a political record, Donald Trump is a blank canvas that people are projecting their hopes on to. They also do not realize that in the pop culture, reality based T.V., society that we live in more people are familiar with the name Donald Trump, than they are with names like Haley Barbour, Gary Johnson, Mitch Daniels, Buddy Roemer or even Tim Pawlenty. More people watch The Apprentice than they do the State of the Union. More people are aware of Snookies every move, than they are of what it is the recent budget that has been passed in the House. But when the focus changes and the spotlight of details comes into focus, people will see Donald Trump in a different light.

Trump will be emaciated in the Republican primary and caucus process. He will be out organized, out managed and out maneuvered. His bankruptcies will become common knowledge and they will than be summed by saying, if he bankrupted his businesses, what will he do with the American treasury? His donations to liberal Democrats will force people to question his political beliefs, sense of conviction and ideology. His divorces will come in to play and most of all, his mouth will be a factor. Donald Trumps mouth is big. Very big. And big mouths mean big trouble in politics, a field in which your every word is exaggerated and intentionally misinterpreted. It is Trumps mouth which will bog Trumps campaign in a perpetual mode of damage control. His campaign will be spending so much time trying to correct the message, that they will have a hard time getting out his message, whatever it may be.

So Donald Trump should enjoy his ratings and poll numbers now, because pretty soon, he will not like where they are.

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Trump to Make Decision on “The Apprentice”. But He Has a Lot to Learn

Bookmark and Share Real estate magnate and pop culture publicity whore Donald Trump, will be making an announcement about an announcement in regards to his decision to run or n0t to run for President, on the season finale of The Apprentice. That final episode airs on May 22nd.So we have more than a month of Trumpitis to deal with.

Meanwhile, if Donald Trumps eventual decision to run for President is in the affirmative, he may want to take that month and use for one, etiquette lessons,two,a few lessons in humility, and three, some civic lessons.

In an interview with Time, when Trump was asked how many members of Congress there are, instead of giving an answer, he replied;

“Well I don’t want to answer your questions because this isn’t a history class. You people, you know you are trying to do the Sarah Palin stuff.

And anytime somebody asks me a question like who is the leader of Abu Dhabi, I say this isn’t a history class, okay? And I actually know. And I know your answer too, but I refuse to answer it. You know why? Because it’s not a history class. And because it’s an irrelevant question. Because you could get some stiff who knows every one of those answers but is incapable of governing.”

Now of course it was a trick question. Right? I mean after all, one could confuse Congress to mean just the House of Representative. Or, it could refer to what it usually isboth the House of Representatives and the Senate combined. So Trump was not going to fall for that and instead of saying 535. 435 in the House and 100 in the Senate, he went off on a rant which you just know he wanted to end by saying, youre fired.

Forgive me for saying this, but if Trump does run for President, please let him do so as a Democrat challenging President Obama for the Democratic Presidential nomination. Let President Obama have to spend some money before he has a Republican opponent. In my opinion, that is the only wayTrump can really be of help right now.

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Trumpitis. Why Many Have Caught It

Trumpitis [Trumpitis] noun: a political condition affecting people dissatisfied with politics and government, causing a yearning for a magical individual who can answer all their frustrations with politics and the way that government works.

Bookmark and Share Even though it is early in the 2012 game of presidential politics, if there is any single name that can be considered a phenomenon at this point in time, it is Donald Trump. His name has most definitely inspired the most widespread, out of the ordinary, curiosity and excitement of any possible candidate from any particular segment of society. The entry of his name in to the 2012 Republican contest has upended polls. A recent CNN polls found Donald Trump tied with Mike Huckabee at 19%, followed by Sarah Palins 12%, Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich at 11%, Ron Paul at 6%, and Michelle Bachman with 5%. Just inside of one month alone, Trump has jumped from 10% to 19%.

Haley Barbour credits the Trump phenomenon to name ID. Others credit the jump to Trumps very public call for proof that President Obama was born an American. Either way, there exists a large base of Trump supporters who have Type A Trumpitus. This group are not just energized by the possibility of a Trump candidacy, they are vehement in their support of Donald Trump and theyre quite loyal to the idea of his potential candidacy.

If you dont believe me, let me give you a random sampling of comments about The Donald that have been made by voters here, on White House 2012.

Beth Avery writes;

Donald Trump needs to run for president, he is the only one that could win this race. He would even have Democrats and Independence besides a strong support from his own party, the Republican Party. He has a no fear policy and knows what we need and will do it.

Robert Conley writes;

It has been many years since I have been excited about a presidential candidate. Mr Trump has the experience needed to run a country in this global business climate that we find ourselves in and the nerve and backbone necessary to accomplish what no president has done since Teddy Roosevelt. That is to show the world that we are a strong and dominant force in the world and not an apologetic scapegoat and third world ATM machine.

Jim Rutkowski send us this message.

TRUMP WILL TELL OBAMA youre fired. I believe Donald Trump has what it takes to defeat Obama in 2012. He even has the Hollywood Star power to win the former Obama MTV Twitter/Facebook generation vote, he is a shoe-in in my view. We must be aggressive and inventive, and Donald Trump is in the In-Crowd right now, a crowd we need SO badly, hes a bit hip, and believe me, WE NEED HIP TO BEAT THESE liberal hipsters. Its a new world now, with a new kind of voter, lets face this election with the power and relative youth we need in an ALREADY popular Republican candidate. Please contact me if Mr Trump decides to run for President, I would like to vigorously campaign for this American winner

Other statements sent in to WH12 include remarks like;

The Republican party should be begging you [Donald Trump] to run and I am supporting you because you will not only have strong support from the Republican party you, will have Democrats and Independents voting for you. Your campaign slogan should be ‘Believe in America!’

There are many gems, just from this website, but in general those who have become diehard supporters of Trump, all profess that Trump can win and that he will tell it like it is and do what needs to be done.

But why exactly are a growing number of voters feeling this way? What accounts for this Trump phenomenon?

Call it Trumpitis.

Trumpitis , by definition, is the only thing that can account for Trumps popularity in politics.

Trumpitis is spreading because of a large number of anti-political contagions. People are steadily unhappy with politics and politicians. This is nothing new. Ancient Romans were often unhappy with their leadership. They just couldnt always do much about it. But this anti-establishment sentiment tends to reach a fevered pitch when the proverbial waste hits the fan and problems, such as our national debt, reach crisis levels. It is also the result of President Obamas famous presidential campaign for hope and change. More than two years after that effort, people do not feel a great deal of hope or see very much change.

Another contagion is the continued existence of broken promises in politics.

Perhaps more than any other President, President Obama has broken more promises than a used car salesman. Instead of ending wars, he gets us into a new one. Instead of closing the Guantanamo Bay prison, he fills it. And the list goes on.

Another aspect of Trumpitis is the fact that there is no one single establishment candidate that has a lock on support. With the more than two dozen names circulating, each of them have their own small and limited base of support, be it regional, ideological or issue based. This void allows for the populism of Donald Trump to overshadow the splintered base of all the rest.

But other reasons for Trumpitis include the fact that Donald Trump is a clean political slate. He has no political record for people to hate. As such, people are projecting their hopes on Trump. These hopes are further buoyed by Trumps bluntness. Many people find this refreshing in politics. They are tired of politicians saying what they dont mean or not coming right out and saying what they mean. Trump currently trumps others on that front.

Trumpitis and Donald Trumps seemingly growing political popularity is essentially based on a type of hope and change that President Obama failed to deliver. The American people hope for a President who puts America first. They dont want Americas positions on terrorism moderated because jihadists dont like our no tolerance on terrorism position. Americans hope for a Mideast policy that helps lower the cost of a barrel of oil rather than raise it. And Americans want a process that is changed by political leadership that does what is says, and says what it means.

In a perfect world, Donald Trump fits that build. In a perfect world, saying youre fired solves the problem. But the problem is this is not a perfect world and Donald Trump is not the perfect candidate that Trumpitis infected voters think he is.

For one thing, while the thought of running government like a business is very attractive, government is not a business. If it were, more of us would be involved. The fact is that government needs to be cut. Yet we have not heard where Donald Trump or if Trump intends on cutting government. And if he does begin to articulate such cuts, you can bet that a small percentage of those infected with Trumpitis will be cured of it.

The fact is that there are thousands of positions that we have not yet heard about from Donald Trump but rest assured that as soon as we start hearing them, many people will getting vaccinated for Trumpitis.

So before too many people jump on the Trump bandwagon and place the hope of the GOP and the nation on Donald Trumps shoulders, let us realize he is not Atlas and let us realize that his shoulders are not the issue. The real issue is what will come out of his mouth regarding the issues of the day. Once we start hearing those words of detail, how popular Donald Trump remains, will be like a crapshoot at Trump Plaza in Atlantic City. Its anyones guess.

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Prosser Win Confirms Conservative Sentiments

Democrats in Wisconsin may want to think twice about continuing to pursue recall votes against Republican Senators who just saved their state by making some tough choices. In fact, Wisconsin is showing that despite major blowback, the country is ready for a party to step to the plate and make those tough choices.

Justice David Prosser

It seemed like Prosser would have an easy election after taking more than 50% of the vote in a non-partisan primary against pro-union, liberal Kloppenburg. But after unions within and outside of the state poured millions of dollars into Kloppenburg’s campaign, it seemed like the state-wide election for Wisconsin Supreme Court would be closer. In fact, union cabbies offered free rides for union voters to the polls. Wisconsin liberals were organized for America and the Prosser/Kloppenburg election became a referendum on Scott Walker.

In fact, a Kloppenburg victory would have swayed the state Supreme Court to a 4-3 Liberal court. Walker’s union busting, budget saving legislation would be a footnote in Wisconsin history.

Walker had made the tough conservative choices. The city was nearly shut down as union members were bused in from other states to crowd and trash the capitol. Democrat Senators fled the state to shut down the legislative process and kindergarten teachers were sending death threats to Republican Senators while staying home with fraudulent sick notes from liberal doctors. On the blogs and comment sections across the web, Democrats were thanking Scott Walker for 2012 on a silver platter, and I even saw one comment talking about how they would get their revenge on the “scabbers”. It felt like a choreographed fight scene from Newsies.

The lead in the Prosser/Kloppenburg election kept changing and kept everyone on the edge of their seats throughout the night, and with a lead of about 200 votes Democrats claimed victory the next day. A recount was possible, but it seemed as though the left was right. Going after public unions to cut a $3 billion state deficit would be the end of the Conservative tidal wave that swept the country in 2010. It was a dark night.

But the next day, we discovered that the AP vote total did not include all the votes. Prosser had actually won by a very comfortable 7,500 votes. If you want to know how significant the Prosser win is, just Google his name. You will find as many stories as you did about Iraq a couple months after the surge strategy started. When stories about successful Republican politicians or policies disappear from the mainstream media, you know they are significant.

This was a statewide election where the same Wisconsin voters who elected Scott Walker came out again and elected Justice David Prosser. Anyone who thinks 2010 was a fluke and that an Obama re-election is a forgone conclusion should look at the national union mob that was re-defeated in Wisconsin.

Americans are ready to cut spending and deal with the deficit.

Trump in the Hunt in New Hampshire

Bookmark and Share According to a new Public Policy Polling survey, Mitt Romney maintains his wide lead in New Hampshire but if Donald Trump were to be among the candidates he competes he against, Romneys wide lead becomes a small lead. The PPP poll finds that 27% of Granite State voters would support Romney but 21% support Donald Trump.

The polls findings show that Trumps close showing to Romney comes from support that he gets from the 42% of primary voters who do not believe Barack Obama was born in the United States. Trump also gets a big boost from TEA movement members.

With Trump out of the contest, PPP calls the contest as follows:

  • Romney – 31%,
  • Mike Huckabee -15%
  • Newt Gingrich – 13%
  • Sarah Palin -10%
  • Ron Paul -10%
  • Michele Bachmann – 4%
  • Tim Pawlenty – 4%
  • Haley Barbour – 2%.
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Rudy Believes He Has Plenty of Time to Decide

Bookmark and Share This weekend Rudy Giuliani spoke at the University of Arkansas and when asked if he is running for President his response was that he doesnt know. According to the former Mayor and former candidate for the Republican presidential nomination,

My concern about 2012 is. because I’m a Republican to make sure that the Republican party fields a candidate that can win. And if I think that I can help by being a candidate, then that would probably persuade me to do it, but if I can help supporting another candidate, then I’d probably do that. And there’s time to figure that out. The good thing about this election as opposed to four years ago, is that it’s happening very slowly, so it gives you a chance to think about it.. gives you a chance to get it down to a smaller period of time so people can focus more on the issues.

Giuliani believes that a condensed election cycle is best for the nation. He goes on to say

The election wont start until next year and with everything going in the world, I think that will probably better with everything going on the world, it gives the President time to be President.

Giulianimay be right, but seeing as how President Obama just filed the papers that made him an official candidate for reelection, he might want to tell the President that he need not start campaigning till next year, because he obviously isnt aware of that.

As for Rudy himself running, he barely made it outr of starting gate last time and I don’t have any reason to believe that a 2012 Giuliani campaign will be less lame than it was in 2008. And insofar as helping a Republican candidate to win the presidency, his best use for that mission would be to stay quiet during the primaries and caucuses and campaign for the eventual nominee in blue states and swing states. He resonates much better with the left side of the political spectrum than he does with the right leaning base of the G.O.P..

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Monday Mornings with Trump. As Trump Prepares to Run for President, Fox Makes Him A Weekly Guest

Bookmark and Share While Fox news contributors like Newt Gingrich and Rick Santroum are being suspended until their presidential campaigns are over, Donald Trump who is seemingly begun to run his own campaign for President, is joining the Fox News team but not as a contributor.as a guest. Trump will be appearing regularly on Monday mornings during a segment being billed as Monday Mornings with Trump.

FEC rules prohibit presidential candidates from having paid ties to media outlets which give them ink or air time that is not regulated by campaign election laws. Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum recently had to suspend their ties to Fox because they were paid contributors. Thats not the case with Trump who will not be receiving any financial money from Fox. According to a Fox spokesperson, that fact will allow The Donald to keep appearing on his segment even if he becomes a declared candidate for President.

It is my experience that such is not the case though. Although Trump would not being getting paid, his regular segment still provides him with regular airtime. That means a regularly scheduled opportunity for free air time. This amounts to an in-kind contribution and such campaign contributions from any one entity are limited by election law which define in-kind contributions as “contributions other than cash.

So if this segment continues after Trump declares a candidacy for President, you can bet that someone will be filing a complaint with the FEC and the FCC.

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