Romney Increases Lead in White House 2012 Electoral College Projection

   Bookmark and Share In what is now a verifiable trend, White House 2012’s newest Electoral College projection has increased the size of Mitt Romney’s lead in the Electoral College over President Obama for the third time in a row.  In the previous projection, after forecasting Ohio for Romney for the first time, New Hampshire and Nevada where switched from Romney to Obama.  This latest forecast now places both of those states back in Mitt Romney’s column, increasing Romney’s lead in the Electoral College by a combined total of 10 electors.  This now puts Romney’s Electoral College count at 291 to the President’s 247.

According to the White House 2012 formula, Nevada and New Hampshire are still very competitive and not solidly in Romney’s camp.  The same goes for Iowa and Ohio where WH12 considers the Romney-Ryan ticket to be currently holding a slim but still growing lead. But the most significant development in the latest forecast model is that the apparent bounce Romney received in the wake of his first debate, is now proving to be a definite trend.  More importantly, it is a trend that is revealing itself to be so pronounced that it has forced White House 2012 to now add three more states to our battleground map… Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin.

That is a dramatic development. Especially in the case of Pennsylvania.

Pennsylvania is to Barack Obama what Ohio is to Mitt Romney.  Without Pennsylvania solidly in the Obama-Biden column, the Democrat ticket finds itself with significantly fewer paths to victory in the Electoral College.  This is a switch from the narrative that had defined Romney’s need to win Ohio.  No Republican has ever won the White House without it.   If Romney can’t win Ohio, he will find significantly fewer ways to accumulate the 270 electors needed to win.  White House 2012 has however stipulated that we are sure Romney can win without Ohio and in fact originally projected him to do so.  But recently polling and other factors have now turned the tables and are forcing the President to have to focus us on his m.

While White House 2012 still projects Pennsylvania to go for the President, if current trends continue, that can quickly change.  In the meantime White House 2012 is forced to now make Pennsylvania a battleground state and in what is turning out to be continued trend that is putting the President’s campaign in a more defensive posture when it comes to the electoral map, White House 2012 has also moved Wisconsin and Michigan to battleground status.

Of these three new battlegrounds, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are most profound.

Without them, President Obama must win Ohio and various combinations of other states that include such states as Florida, Virginia, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, and/or Colorado.

While many factors will continue to change future projections, the analysis behind this forecast is most notable for the conclusion that at the moment, the Romney-Ryan ticket is turning the tables in the Electoral College and forcing the Obama-Biden ticket to take a more defensive electoral strategy.  It is forcing the Obama campaign to spend time and much needed resources and money in state’s that at this point in time, they had hoped were in the bag.  Meanwhile, the need to reinforce his standing in places like Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and even Michigan, is taking time and money away from President Obama’s ability to work on winning other important states like Ohio, Florida, Virginia, New Hampshire, Nevada, Iowa, and Colorado.

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Inevitabilty Begins To Doom the Hopes of Romney’s Rivals

Bookmark and Share    A recent Gallup poll would seem to indicate that a perceived sense of  inevitability concerning Mitt Romney’s winning the Republican presidential nomination  is beginning to cast a shadow over the rest of the Republican field of candidates.

The poll shows that Romney is finally breaking out of the mid twenty range of support that he has consistently been mired in, has broken the 30% range and in a field of four other major candidates, is now making a run for the 35% mark. 

Normally, I put little weight in national polls, when the winner is determined on a state by state basis.  However, in a larger sense, this poll would seem to be a sign that Republicans are beginning to resign themselves to a sense of inevitability surrounding the nomination of Mitt Romney.  It is a perception which became unavoidable after Romney won both Iowa and New Hampshire and was only boosted by reports of Romney’s increasing lead in the soon to be hed third nomination contest of South Carolina.

According to Galllup:

“Mitt Romney is now the only candidate that a majority of conservative and moderate/liberal Republicans nationwide see as an acceptable GOP nominee for president. Conservative Republicans are more likely to say this about Romney than about either Newt Gingrich or Rick Santorum.”
 
If that is accurate, it would be a pleasantly surprising sign that if Romney does become the nominee, establishing Party unity behind him may not be quite as difficult as once suspected. 
 
Gallup also finds that while Romney is consolidating support behind him for the nomination, with exception of Ron Paul, Romney’s remaining rivals are losing support.  The candidate trending down worst of al is Newt Gingrich.  Ron Paul is reamining staedy as he ne neither gains or loses support.
 
 
While this is a good sign, it should not be enough to make Mitt feel too comfortable.  There is still a fair chance that the increasing likelihood of a Romney nomination can finally inspire dissatisfied Republicans, fed up conservatives, and ticked off TEA movement activists to unite solidly behind one clear alternative to Mitt Romney in any number of the states leading up to Super Tuesday. 
 
But given the terrain between now and then, and the financial resources required to aggressively contest those states, Romney still holds a significant advantage with a strong and now growing base of support in most all the upcoming contests.  That schedule is as follows.

Saturday, January 21st: – South Carolina 50 25 delegates

Tuesday, January 31st; – Florida99 50 delegates

Saturday, February 4th – Nevada  23 delegates, Maine24 delegates

Tuesday, February 7th; – Colorado – 36 delegates, Minnesota – 40 delegates, Missouri -53 delegates

Tuesday, February 28th;  – Arizona 58 24 delegates, Michigan –  59 30 delegates

Saturday, March 3rd; – Washington – 43 delegates

Tuesday, March 6th;  (Super Tuesday)- Alaska – 27  delegates, Georgia – 75 delegates, Massachusetts – 41 delegates, North Dakota– 28 delegates, Idaho – 24 of 29 delegates, Oklahoma – 43 delegates, Tennessee – 58 delegates, Texas – 152 delegates, Virginia – 49 delegates, Vermont – 17  delegates, Wyoming29 delegates

While the race is certainly not over and Romney can’t take anything for granted, he must now also begin to lay the groundwork for the next stage of this election cycle.  That would incude  uniting the many factions of the Party and to inspire them all.  If this pol as a good indication of how things are realy going, it woiuld seem that Mitt needs to thank President for being the reason why Republicans are seemingy preapared to unite behind Mitt.  But that will still leave Romney with the need to inspire thise whoa re willing to support him over Barack Obama.  It now looks like that may be the toughest challenge ahead for Mitt.

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If It Were Up To Republicans, Ron Paul Would Still Be a Second Tier Candidate

Bookmark and Share   Ron Paul’s recent surge to the front of the pack certainly makes this an exciting time for those who subscribe to his rhetoric and feel that his lack of actual accomplishments makes him an ideal President.  It’s also an exciting time for those who are simply fed up and looking for a way to register a significant protest vote against the system ans politics in general.  But for true conservative Republicans, Paul’s rise in recent Iowa polling is little more than a means of assuring the reelection of President Barack Obama and if left up to them, Ron Paul would still be lumped together with names like Jon Huntsman, Buddy Roemer, and Michele Bachmann in the bottom third of the Republican presidential field.

However, in states like Iowa, and even New Hampshire, the Republican presidential nominee is not chosen just by Republicans.

According to state Party rules governing the Iowa Caucus and several other state nominating contests, only registered Republicans in the state of Iowa can participate in the Republican caucus but individuals registered as Independents or affiliated with other parties, may switch their Party affiliation at the caucus site and cast their vote for the Republican candidate of their choice.  In other words, a non-affiliated voter or a liberal Democrat can walk in out of the snow, change their Party registration,  and vote for Ron Paul.

For some, the opportunity for people of any political affiliation to vote in a partisan primary or caucus is a good thing, and seems logical, but as a proud partisan conservative Republican, I can tell you that it is not.

For the record, while I am an American first and foremost, I must admit that I am a proud and devout, partisan conservative Republican.  My committment to the Party is based on ideology, and I am often not the most politically popular person in the Party because I am often at at odds with many of  its leaders who I believe spend most of their time playing politics and forsaking our conservative based ideology for political expediency.

That stated, I defend my ideological partisanship on the grounds that it is my deep conviction that ultimately, the conservative-Republican ideology is the best thing for America.  So my political partisanship goes hand in hand with my love of country and I do not separate the two.  That’s why I have never supported so-called open primary or caucus contests that allow people of opposing ideologies to choose the nominee that represents  my beliefs and Party.

The way I see it, as a conservative, why should I have the ability to pick the liberal nominee?  If  I had the chance to do that in 2008, I would have done my best to make sure that Dennis Kucinich won the Democratic presidential nomination for President.  Kucinich would have been a sure loser for liberals.

I am of the opinion that if Republicans and Democrats, or for that matter Libertarians, are to nominate the candidate that best represents their beliefs and can be the strongest one to represent their Party, then those who subscribe to the ideologies represented by those parties should be responsible for deciding who represents that Party.  In some ways, these open contests make about as much sense as us opening up the general presidential election to the citizens of other nations.  Which by the way, is not so unfathomable when you consider the lengths to which Democrats are trying to go  in with legislative initiatives designed at specifically making  it possible for illegal immigrants to vote.

Now some of you may be saying that I am blowing this all out of proportion.  Some may even suggest that crediting Ron Paul’s predicted success in Iowa to the opportunity for independents and Democrats to vote in their Caucus is overstated.  To them I must ask…………are you that stupid!!?

One need not look very hard to find that my assertion about the effect of independents and Democrats is true.

A recent American Research Group poll of  Iowa voters makes the case that if left up to Republicans, Ron Paul would not be a real contender.

According to ARG, among Republicans who intend to vote in the Iowa Caucus, Mitt Romney leads with 23% and he is followed by Newt Gingrich who comes in at 19%.

As for Ron Paul, strictly among Republicans, he pulls 12% of the vote which leaves him tied with Rick Santorum.

Among Republicans:

  • Mitt Romney 23%
  • Newt Gingrich 19%
  • Rick Santorum 12%
  • Ron Paul 12%
  • Michele Bachmann 9%
  • Rick Perry 8%
  • Jon Huntsman 6%
  • Buddy Roemer 1%
  • Other 1%
  • Undecided 9%

In the same poll, a deeper look at Iowa Republicans that breaks them down along TEA Party lines finds that Ron Paul does a little better among those voters most focussed on a limited and more constitutional government but not by much.   Ron Paul receives a 16% share of the vote from them,  but that is 9% behind Gingrich and 10% behind Mitt Romney.

Among Tea Party Supporters

  • Mitt Romney 26%
  • Newt Gingrich 25%
  • Ron Paul 16%
  • Michele Bachmann 10%
  • Rick Perry 9%
  • Rick Santorum 7%
  • Jon Huntsman 0%
  • Buddy Roemer 0%
  • Other 0%
  • Undecided 7%

In fact, the only segment of Iowa residents who Ron Paul gets a majority of the vote from in the “Republican” Iowa Caucus are Independents.  Among them, Paul polls 30% of the vote, 8% more than Romney, and 18% more than Newt Gingrich.

Among Independents

  • Ron Paul 30%
  • Mitt Romney 22%
  • Newt Gingrich 12%
  • Rick Perry 11%
  • Michele Bachmann 6%
  • Rick Santorum 6%
  • Jon Huntsman 6%
  • Buddy Roemer 0%
  • Other 1%
  • Undecided 9%

If that is not enough to convince you of the undue influence that non-Republican entities are having on the Republican Caucus in Iowa, maybe you will believe it coming from Ron Paul’s own people?

Back in March of 2011, the hero worshippers behind the propaganda based website entitled The Daily Paul, posted a call to arms entitled “2012 Open Primary States: The key to Ron Paul’s Republican Nomination”.  It basically calls upon Pauliacs to sabotage the Republican nomination process and steal the nomination from the Party by asking Democrats and Independents to flood the primaries and caucuses of the 17 specific states that have open primaries which allow Democrats and Independents to vote without even having to register as a Republican.

The article reads;

“We must organize and put the strongest efforts in these states to encourage Democrats and Independents to vote for Ron Paul and capture all the Delegates of these Open Republican Primary States”

By the count of the author behind the plot, winning those states would give Ron Paul 874 of the 1,212 delegates needed to win the Republican nomination.

Fortunately for rational conservatives though, not only is that a substantial number short of the delegates needed, most of the states do not have election laws that allow for opposing parties to easily and blatantly circumvent the democratic process in the general election by sabotaging a Party’s nomination process and leaving them with a nominee who is the weakest possible candidate they could have representing them.

Additional good fortune is the fact that Iowa is one of the few state’s that Ron Paul is actually doing that well in.  Nationally, Ron Paul’s average standing in the polls is half that of Romney and less than half that of Newt Gingrich.  While national polls do not mean much to a process that is based on the collective results of individual state contests, that national average does accurately reflect most state polls.

In the final analysis, while excitement erupts about Ron Paul rising to the top, the truth is that such excitement is based on a lack of any real depth of truth, and thankfully, it is the G.O.P. which will still determine their own nominee.  Even so, I still think it is about time that state parties and their representatives rethink their willingness to allow the political opposition to influence who our own Party’s nominees are.

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Who Would Be a Stronger Candidate Against President Obama? Romney or Gingrich?

Bookmark and Share    Whether people realize it or not, the Iowa Caucuses must be consider a pretty wide open contests.  Gingrich, Romney and Paul, may be looked at right now as the candidates with the best shot at taking first place in that contest.  But given the uniquness of Iowa and the complexities of caucus elections, it is not impossible for Rick Santorum or  Michele Bachmann to surprise the political world with a first place showing.

But even if such a placement in Iowa eludes ether of them, you can bet on them having a relatively strong showing that will certainly have an affect on who does win Iowa.  If they end up getting more support from social conservatives than currently expected, they could deny Gingrich and Ron Paul enough votes to beat Romney’s vote total and give him the Caucus win.

How it plays olut will be quite interesting, but for now, polls in multiple state’s aside from Iowa, present a picture that has the nomination contest coming down to two men, Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich. So this week, White House 2012 is asking readers to tell us which of the two is the strongest one to run against President Obama.

Two weeks ago, White House 2012 asked readers which Republican presidential candidate they thought was most capable of beating President Obama in the presidential debates? In that poll,  an overwhelmingly number of respondents believed Newt Gingrich was the candidate with the best shot at outshining Obama in the debates.  Mitt Romney came in a distant second:

  • Newt Gingrich  48.19% 
  • Mitt Romney  16.06%  
  • None of them  7.23%  
  • Ron Paul  5.22%
  • Michele Bachmann  4.42%  
  • Herman Cain  11.24%  
  • Jon Huntsman  2.81%  
  • Rick Santorum  2.41% 
  • Rick Perry  1.2% 
  • Gary Johnson  1.2% 

But as the first voting in the nomination process gets closer, we would now like to know if  voters believe that the ability to outperform President Obama in a debate is enough to beat the President in the general election?.  So this week, we ask you, with all things considered, which of the two strongest debaters is the  candidate with the best overall chance of beating President Obama in the general election?

Click here to take the poll now!

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Which Republican Presidential Candidate Has the Best Chance of Beating President Obama in a Debate?

Bookmark and Share  Last week, White House 2012 asked readers to tell us which of the Republican candidates they believe is most capable of beating President Obama in the presidential debates.

Of all the questions ever asked about the Republican presidential candidates in a White House 2012 poll, nonehave ever had results that gave the nod to any candidate by as large a margin as this one did.  With a lead that exceeded his nearest rival by more than 32%,  White House 2012 readers concluded that Newt Gingrich was the candidate with the best chance of dominating the President in the debates.

Far behind him was Mitt Romney, followed by Herman Cain, a candidate who is now out of the running.

Behind Cain, with 7.23%,  was “none of the candidates”.

With a margin as wide as the one Newt received in this poll of approximately 300 respondents, it is safe to say that a clear majority of Republican voters have found Newt’s debate skills to be superior to those of his rivals.  It is also safe to say that Newt’s rise in the polls, which began to rebound, prior to Herman Cain’s departure from the campaign trail, is in large part due to his performances in the many debates that have already been held.

The perception that Newt could outshine President Obama in a debate is a promising observation when considering who Republicans will ultimately nominate for President. 

The Presidential debates typically draw some of the largest national audiences of all televised events, and they often prove to be decisive factors in particularly close elections.  But before we can get to those debates, we need a nominee and now that this poll answers the questions of who voters think can do better in debate with President Obama, the next question is, how much of a factor will that be in determining who Republicans want to run against President Obama?

When it comes to electability, Newt does not score very high marks.  With legends created about multiple marriages, and a history of being a polarizing and partisan political figure, many have significant doubts about Newt’s electability.  But the popular perception that Newt can beat the President in the debates, the perceived electability problem in  the general election losses some of its sting.  However, at the same time, the overwhelming opinion of Newt being superior debater puts increasing pressure on Newt.  From here on out, voters will be holding  Newt Gingrich to a higher standard than the other candidates in future debates.  And a weak debate performance at any point in the future could prove to be lethal to Gingrich in the sense that it will take the shine off of what voters consider to beone of his greatest strengths.

Meanwhile, even though Mitt Romney comes in far behind Newt in this poll, should Newt not win the nomination, the results seemingly indicate that Republicans will still be pretty confident in Romney’s ability to hold his own against President Obama.

At the bottom end of this poll, in the wake of a series of debate performances that blew Texas Governor Rick Perry out of the water, it should come as no surprise that he and former New Mexico Governor Gary Johnson tied for last place.  Gary Johnson has been allowed in only two debates and in each one, he failed to catch on with voters in any significant way.

This week, White House 2012’s poll takes its lead from a post written by IkeFriday, that wondered out loud about how people viewed Ron Paul when  it comes to his policies that involve Israel.   Friday’s question was inspired by the The Republican Jewish Coalition’s decision to not invite Ron Paul to their candidate’s forum that will be held this Wednesday on December 7th.   The RJC  said that inviting Ron Paul would be no different than inviting Barack Obama when it came to policy on Israel and Israel’s enemies.

While the reasoning does not indicate that the Republican Jewish community believes Ron Paul is anti-Semitic but Paul’s positions have often been ascribed to anti-Jewish sentiments on his part. 

For the record, as someone who is absolutely no fan of Ron Paul’s policies, I personally believe that while his positions concerning Israel are not approved of by me, I can not accuse Ron Paul of being anti-Semitic.  I believe that Ron Paul’s positions here are driven by his sincere interpretation of the Constitution and by what he truly believes is the best interest of America first.  I have no reason to believe that Paul’s positions regarding Israel are driven by an any anti-Jewish sentiments.   \

That’s my opinion.   What’s yours?  Is Ron Paul anti-Semitic?

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Who Won Thursday’s Fox News/Google Debate in Florida and Why?

Bookmark and Share  With nine candidates and many questions asked by American citizens through Youtube, who if anyone do you think won Thursday’s Fox News/Google Debate in Florida?

Click here to take the poll

Then leave your comments explaining what made candidates winners and losers in this most recent debate. Or join the debate about the debate on White House 2012’s Facebook discussion page.

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Pawlenty Up, Romney Down. Monthly Ranking of Republican Presidential Field Finds New Frontrunner

Bookmark and Share    After a month that saw some of the hottest potential Republican presidential candidates officially decline to get in to the race, White House 2012’s newest monthly ranking produced a few surprises. To begin with, the narrowing down of the potential presidential field prompted WH12 to cut its ranking half and go from a list of the top twenty, to the top ten. This forced many lower tier names that were often found in the ranking, left out. But the smaller list made the ranking competitive that even some big names surprisingly did not make it. Most notably missing is Michele Bachmann.

While Bachmann almost made the cut, in addition to the possibility for several other big names to still jump in to the race, and a the smaller number of slots available in the ranking forced a much harsher analysis of the field. As a result, even though Bachmann has the ability to upset her rivals in Iowa and South Carolina, a lack of electability outside of those two states was more than likely what prevented her from placement in the top ten. Last month, Bachmann was ranked twelfth. This month, a top twenty ranking would have put Bachmann in eleventh place. So even though she did not make the list in June, she still improved her standing in May.

The biggest surprise of all though came in in the number slot. Since WH12 began ranking the candidates several months ago, Mitt Romney was consistently ranked number one. In June, for the very first time, Romney slipped to second place and was replaced by former Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty.

This change was again most likely due to the increasingly competitiveness of a smaller ranking and indicates that Pawlenty benefits the most from Mitch Daniels‘, Mike Huckabee’s, and Donald Trump’s decision not to run. With these, and others out, Pawlenty becomes a fall back candidate for many. But more importantly, as people look closer at a field of fewer and fewer candidates, RomneyCare is probably the one thing most responsible for preventing them from flocking to Mitt Romney and cause them to be more willing to side with other candidates like Tim Pawlenty instead.   RomneyCare continues to be the primary reason why Romney does not have a lock on the nomination.

Another surprise is the third place showing of Herman Cain.

Cain’s outsider status, combined with his fiery articulation of the issues, makes him increasingly viable in an electorate that has fewer hopefuls to back in the ginned up TEA Party movement atmosphere that currently exists. Although it is not likely that Herman Cain will actually get the nomination, if he can raise enough money to compete with people like Pawlenty, he can make a serious run for the nomination. And that is reflected in this month’s ranking.

Behind Cain is Jon Huntsman, followed by Sarah Palin, Newt Gingrich, Rick Sanotrum, Ron Paul, Texas Governor Rick Perry and in tenth place is former New York City Mayor, Rudy Giuliani.  Palin and Paul hold the same position in June that they held in May.

While Gingrich, Santorum, and Ron Paul have made their candidacies official, and Jon Huntsman is assumed to make his campaign official soon, it is still not known what Palin, Perry, and Giuliani are doing.  Still, between the likelihood of their running and the impact they could have if they did, the consensus among the staff of WH12 finds Palin in fifth place, Perry in ninth, and Rudy in tenth. If they were to make their candidacies official, their placement would probably be higher.

White House 2012’s monthly ranking is based on an average calculated from the individual rankings of each of the site’s staff writers. The overall ranking reflects where the combined opinion of the staff writers place the candidates or potential candidates, if the election were held today. It does not reflect who WH12 wants to be, or thinks will actually be the nominee. It is only a current snapshot of where the candidates stand today, that is based upon current circumstances and factors and the potential that each candidate is so far showing.

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Should Republicans Continue To Question President Obama’s Birth Certificate and Citizenship?

Bookmark and Share With White House 2012s first national Republican presidential straw poll over (see results here), this week we presentyou with a poll question that deals with asn issue whicg strikes many Republican quite differently.

Those whodoubt the validity of President Obama’s birth certificateand question where he was born, are derogatorially identified as birthers . These so-called birthers want proof that President Obama has an authentic birth certificatewhichproves he was born a United States citizen. But there are many people, including many within the G.O.P., that believe any question about the Presidents citizenship and record of his birth have been settled long ago.

This week White House 2012 asks readers to let us know if they think it is wise for the G.O.P. to pursue the issue of the Presidents birth certificate and citizenship, or whether or not it should be avoided?

Let us know where you stand. The poll closes on Sunday, April 4th, 2011 at 10:00 pm EST. Click here to vote now!

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Vote In the White House 2012 National Republican Presidential Straw Poll

Bookmark and Share We are currently in to the second week of White House 2012s First National Republican Presidential Straw Poll for the 2012 election. Responses are coming in fairly steadily with 28% coming from the Northeast followed by 21.5% from the Southeast, 18.3% in the Mid West, 17.2 from the Southwest and trailing in the back of the pack is the West who make up only 15.1% of the vote. As for how the votes are breaking among the 24 candidates in this straw poll, all that White House 2012 can tell you at this time is that the numbers are producing some surprises that run contrary to popular thinking.

The impetus behind this surprise could be due to the preponderance of conservatives who subscribe to and read White House 2012. Currently 68.8 of the respondents describe themselves as conservative, while 28% are self described moderates and a mere 3.2% of brave souls consider themselves to be liberal Republicans. Another factor could be the desire to see some outsiders who could get in and change politics from the inside. But enough said on that. If these results don’t hold, neither will that theory.

No matter what the breakdowns show now, the more voters who give us their opinions, the better chance we have of coming to a conclusion which accurately measures which candidates with whom the enthusiasm lies behind. On the balot are 24 possible contenders. Each name iseither running setting up an exploratory committee or has expressed their interest in possibly running. White House 2012 is taking people like Chris Christie, Bob McDonnell, Marco Rubio, Bobby Jindal and others who have said they are not running for Presiden. And so those names are not on the ballot. But of the 24 major names that still might be running, there are penty of choices to choose from.

They are:

  • Michele Bachmann
  • Haley Barbour
  • John Bolton
  • Herman Cain
  • Mitch Daniels
  • Newt Gingrich
  • Rudy Giuliani
  • Mike Huckabee
  • Jon Huntsman, Jr.
  • Gary Johnson
  • Fred Karger
  • Roy Moore
  • Sarah Palin
  • George Pataki
  • Rand Paul
  • Ron Paul
  • Tim Pawlenty
  • Gen. David Petraeus
  • Rick Perry
  • Bob Riley
  • Buddy Roemer
  • Mitt Romney
  • Rick Santorum
  • Donald Trump

Please take a moment to cast your vote in the poll and pass the link that is here http://wp.me/PVXi4-TS to your Repubican friends, and ask them to vote.

When done, the results will be broken down by region, by ideological leaning, and by who gains support if others fail to last very ong in the race. So hep us take this snapshot of the eeisting political landscape. Vote here in the National Republican Presidential Starw Poll

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Take the White House 2012 Republican Presidential Straw Poll

Bookmark and Share Today President Obama has officially become a candidate for reelection and over the course of the next few weeks, many Republicans are likely to officially enter the race in hopes of becoming the Republican presidential nominee to challenge the President.

So it as at this point time that White House 2012 would like to invite you to participate in our first presidential straw poll. They tend to be educated and decisive voters with more than a passing knowledge of politics and the candidates who seek and hold office in the political process. White House 2012 readers also tend to be the grass root activists and leaders within the G.O.P., the people who will most help to shape who the Republican nominee for President is. For that reason White House seeks your opinion and the chance to gauge with whom the momentum and enthusiasm lies.

Please take a moment to vote in this straw poll. Register your support for the candidate of your choice and let them know how much support they have or dont have by clicking here.

In order to break down the results and to better establish any trends that may exist, the WH12 poll asks you four questions. First it asks what region you reside in. That is followed by your ideological preference and finally your first choice for the Republican presidential nomination and then your second choice for the nomination. We want to know who you would support in the event that your first choice does not run or doesnt stay in the race long enough for the primary or caucus that is held in your state.

And when you’re done voting, please pass the link to this poll, http://wp.me/PVXi4-TS to other Republicans that you know and ask them to vote too.

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71% Believe GOP Candidates Should Oppose U.S. Creation of the Libyan No-Fy Zone

Bookmark and Share As President Obama explains Americas actions in Libya and tries to avoid receiving the same type of criticism that he himself leveled against the previous President for involvement in the affairs of other nations, an overwhelming majority of White House 2012 readers say that the potential Republican presidential candidates would be wise to oppose American involvement in the enforcement of the No-fly Zone over parts of Libya

The White House 2012 poll asked;

Is it wise for any of the potential Republican presidential candidates to support American involvement in the enforcement of the No-fly Zone over parts of Libya?

21.67% of all respondents said Yes, it would be wise while 71.67% said it would not be wise. 6.67% believed that the best position for the Republican candidates for President to take is one which called for more action in Libya than President Obama has committed to.

The poll is mainly indicative of a Republican electorate weary of ongoing interventionist policies such as those we see in Iraq and Afghanistan. Many Republicans know that revisiting similar policies in another hard fought election, would probably hurt GOP chances of winning more than help. But the situation is much worse for President Obama than for any of the potentiaql Republican presidential contenders.

While Republicans may disagree with the America led creation of the Libyan No-fly zone, it is more than likely that they were never going to vote for President Obama regardless od what his on this issue was. However; many in the Presidents liberal base have expressed disappointment and anger in Obamas decision to militarily intervene in Libya. Many in that base are repulsed by what they see as a policy quite similar to that of former President George W. Bush, a position that is anathema among the left.

But regardless of President Obamas position on the issue, contrary to the advice that White House 2012 readers offer in this poll, most contenders in the Republican presidential field believe that not only should the United States should be involved in the creation of the No-fly Zone over Libya, they criticize President Obama for not having acted earlier and more decisively than he did. Indeed some like Mitt Romney attack President Obama for what he describes as the Presidents relinquishing our leadership roll in the world to the French, who were the first to take on Kaddafi and who were in the lead on creating the No-fly Zone. A similar opinion has been shared by many other potential contenders such as Sarah Palin and Newt Gingrich. Haley Barbour is one of the few who articulated extreme reluctance for our involvement in Libya.

The issue is one that might play a significant roll in the GOP presidential nominating contest. It is one that could fuel the isolationist, Ron Paul, libertarian, element within the Party and help swing a .small but winning plurality over to candidates like Barbour who were not quick to pull the trigger on Libya.

While that issue will continue to play itself out, this week’s White House 2012 poll quickly changes topics and moves from the international political arena to domestic election politics and asks whether or not Fred Karger, the first candidate to make his candidacy for the Republican presidential nomination official, should be allowed to participate in al the upcoming Republican presidential debates.

Karger is openly gay, the first openly gay person to run for President in either major Party. Yet some forums, such as a recent Iowa Faith and Family forum, refused to allow Karger to participate because he is gay. This week’s poll asks whether or notsuch future treatmentof Karger should continue as time goes by or if he should be allowed a place in the debates. Click here to take the poll

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Christie, Gingrich, Daniels and Romney Top New Jersey Presidential Straw Poll

Bookmark and Share At a gathering of Republican candidates, campaign managers, staffers and grass root activists, White House 2012 and Building the New Majority sponsored New Jerseys first Republican presidential straw poll for the 2012 election and the winner was their own Governor, Chris Christie.

Of the 196 voters who participated, 19.8% named Governor Christie their first choice for the Republican presidential nomination. Coming in second was former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich with 12.5%, followed by Indiana Governor Mitch Daniels and former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney with 9.4% each, former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee 7.3%, former Florida Governor Jeb Bush 6.3%, former Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty 5.2%, and Texas Rep. Ron Paul and former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin tied at 4.2%.

The Garden State Republican Presidential Straw Poll consisted of 25 of the most often mentioned names and likely contenders in the emerging Republican field. Due to the large size of the still developing field and the likelihood that some, if not many of those names on the ballot may not run, or may not make it to the New Jersey primary, unlike most traditional straw polls, the White House 2012/BTNM ballot also asked New Jersey Republicans who their second choice for President was. The big winner here was Mitt Romney who was the second choice of 20.8% of voters. This conclusion is quite important given the fact that Governor Christie has repeatedly denied any interest in running for President in 2012.

Following Romney in this second choice category was Sarah Palin, Minnesota Congresswoman Michele Bachmann and former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani, each with 8.3%, Mike Huckabee 6.3% and Mitch Daniels 5.2%.

Click here to read raw numbers

A third question on the ballot asked voters to describe their place on the ideological scale within the Republican Party. None of the respondents described themselves as liberal but 75%, or 144 of the participating voters called themselves conservative, and the remaining 48 (25%), described themselves of moderate.

Among self described conservatives, a majority of 15.3% named Chris Christie as their first choice for the presidential nomination and 23.6% of them named Mitt Romney as their second choice for the nomination. As for moderates 33.3% of them also declared Christie to be their first choice but their second choice for the nomination was Rudy Giuliani who took that position with 25% of the vote from moderates.

See complete results below this post

The poll was conducted by White House 2012 and Building the New Majority amongNew Jersey Republicans who participated ina recent seminar sponsored by Building the New Majority and the Family PolicyCouncil that took place in Parsippany, New Jersey.

While these results are by no means a sure sign of how the New Jersey Republican presidential primary will turnout less than a year from now, it does offer a good glimpse at where the energies and enthusiasm of the activist base of the states G.O.P. lie. These results demonstrate to me, that at this stage in the game, if Chris Christie is true to his word about not running for the nomination, Mitt Romney looks good in New Jersey. Romney worked the Republican base and Party activists pretty well in 2008, and while minds are by no means made up yet, his efforts of the last campaign for president are giving him a slight advantage in New Jersey in the coming election.

As indicated by the numbers, the results were influenced by a largely conservative vote, but a strong conservative influence is likely to dominate New Jersey’s actual presidential primary. How much has yet to be seen.

The Raw Numbers

Who is your FIRST CHOICE for the 2012 Republican Presidential nomination?

Who is yourSECOND CHOICE for the 2012 Republican Presidential nomination?

Do you consider yourself to be a liberal, a moderate, or conservative Republican?

  1. Conservative 144 75%
  2. Moderate 48 25%
  3. Liberal 0 0

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Rick Santorum Sends A Message To New Jersey Republican Straw Poll Voters

Bookmark and Share As White House 2012 and Building the New Majority conductsa presidential straw poll of New Jersey Republican grass root activivsts, candidates, campaign managers and staffers, former Pennsylvania Senator and likely presidential candidate Rick Santorum, has sent them a message which credited New Jerseyans with starting in 2009 what he called “the American Renaissance” Santorum writes:

“What New Jersey gave, the rest of America is taking. Each of us needs to step forward and stand tall for what we know to be true, that America is the most uniquley exceptional nation in the history of the world, not just b ecause of what we have accomplished, but for who we are as a people and all that we aspire to be.

The American renaissance started here [New Jersey] in 2009, and the rest of the country picked up the flag last year. But we must continue to fight by electing a new President in 2012 and electing a new Republican Senate majority”

You can click on the image below to read the complete message.

White House 2012 will is conducting a straw poll at a conference sponsored by Building the New Majority, a statewide organization that identifies, developes and empowers candidates byfocussing in onthe development of candidates for local, county and state offices through direct contributions and grassroots support in order to help rebuild the New Jersey Republican organization from the ground up. The White House 2012/ Building the New Majority Garden State Republican Presidential Straw Poll will be the first of its kind in New Jersey for the 2012 presidential election and should give a sense of where the Party’s base currently stands on the evolving Republican presidentiall nominating contest.

Results of the poll will be released on Saturday, March 26, 2011, the second day of the Building the New Majority conference.

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Click on the image below to read a larger version of Senator Santorum’s complete message

Should the G.O.P. Presidential Contenders Support Military Intervention in Libya?

Bookmark and Share As President Obama leads America into military action against Moamar Quadaffi, this week White House 2012 asks readers if it wise for any of the potential Republican presidential candidates to support American involvement in the enforcement of the No-fly Zone over parts of Libya?

With ongoing intervention in Iraq and war in Afghanistan that are both based on a policy of preemption, the question is an important one. In recent years, the ongoing efforts in Iraq and Afghanistan have given rise to bi-partisan yearning for a non-interventionist foreign policy, that would allow the United States to avoid being the worlds policeman. The issue is one which drives the loyal support of such potential candidate as Ron Paul, whose followers will play an important role in determining the Republican presidential nominee.

So in this particular situation, what would be the wisest and most beneficial position for a Republican presidential candidate to take on Libya?

Click here to take the poll.

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Can Mitt Romney Successfully Argue Against Obamacare with Romney-Care?

Bookmark and Share While Mitt Romney is in many regards, considered a frontrunner for the Republican presidential nomination, he has come to carry, rightfully or wrongfully, some heavy baggage that prevents him from actually being the frontrunner for the nomination.

The most heavy is his creation of Massachusetts’ healthcare plan which he put together and pushed for the passage of through the state legislature. That healthcare plan is often considered a precursor to Obamcare, the Administrations signature government program which 62% of Americans want to repeal. Repealing Obamacare is even the number issue of any potential Republican candidate for President, including Mitt Romney.

So White House 2012 has asked readers if Mitt Romney can convincingly argue against Obamacare by claiming he would repeal it and that he would never usurp the constitutional power of states with a federal takeover like Obamacare?

Governor Romney argues that although he would change some parts of his state healthcare plan for Massachusetts, his plan was a good start. But Romney goes on to say that he would never pass a one size fits all law, that usurps the rights of the states. As a result, White House 2012 believes that Mitt Romney will run for the Republican presidential nomination with a campaign that emphasizes states rights. But with Romney-care hanging around his neck and with candidates from Haley Barbour to Rick Santorum and Tim Pawlenty, hammering Romney on this issue, can Mitt arguments overcome the negative connotations that stem from his state healthcare law?

According to White House 2012 readers, 61.63% believe that Romney cannot convincingly argue for states rights and against Obamacare. 22.09% believe that he can successfully overcome the arguments against his state healthcare law and another 16.28% believe that he might be able to do so.

These results indicate that not only is Romney-care the biggest hurdle for Mitt to have to overcome in 2012, a predominant number of Americans may not be willing to buy into any strong stand for states right that his potential campaign may try to make.

Stars01.gif picture by kempite

This week White House 2012 asks readers whether or not it wise for any of the potential Republican presidential candidates to support the decision to have the Unites States enforce a No-fly Zone over Libya?

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White House 2012 to Co-Sponsor New Jersey’s First 2012 Republican Presidential Straw Poll

Bookmark and Share White House 2012 is proud to announce that it has arranged for the creation of New Jerseys first Republican presidential straw poll of the 2012 election cycle. Together with Building The New Majority , White House 2012 will co-sponsor this straw poll on Saturday, March 26th, 2011.

The poll will be taken on the second day of a two day Republican seminar/conference at the Hilton Hotel in Parsippany New Jersey. The event is sponsored by Building the New Majority and the New Jersey Family Policy Council. Its focus is on training candidates, campaign staff and grassroots Republican activists, how to run winning campaigns without comprising their values. Attending the event will be New Jersey Republicans who range from Party leaders, state committeemen and future candidates, to their staffs and grassroots activists within the GOP and even the TEA Party movement.

White House 2012 will be overseeing the straw poll and providing ballots that will rotate the order of the names of the Republican presidential contenders that will be on it.

While it is too early to declare a frontrunner for the Republican presidential nomination, White House 2012 hopes to provide some insight as to not just who New Jersey Republicans are leaning towards but also the type of candidate they are favoring. Making the White House 2012 straw poll different from other similar ones, is the addition of a second choice among voters. This helps to better predict trends, especially in the case of a first choice, not entering or dropping out of the nomination contest by the time New Jerseys primary rolls around.

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Mitch Daniels’ Victories in the Pacific Northwest. Real or Imagined?

Bookmark and ShareOn Sunday, Indiana Governor Mitch Daniels won a straw poll of Republican leaders and activists at an annual meeting of the Oregon G.O.P.. Back in January, at a similar gathering in Washington State, Mitch Daniels won their straw poll too. It has been reported that these victories were achieved without any campaigning by Governor Daniels or any known organized effort on his behalf. So the question is, why is the Governor from the Midwest, so popular with the Republican establishment of the Pacific Northwest?

Interestingly, in both Washington and Oregon, there seems to be a bit of a consensus that it is Governor Daniels prowess with his state’s budget, and even more responsible than that, it seems to be his successful efforts in curtailing the abuses of big unions.

In an interview with White House 2012, when asked what accounts for Daniels’ popularity among Republican activists in the Northwest, Oregon National Committeeman and founder of the Republican National Committee’s Conservative Caucus, Solomon Yue, Jr., stated;

“I believe Northwestern Republicans appreciate the fact that Governor Daniels had used his executive order to strip state employee unions of their collective-bargaining power and the ability to collect dues by payroll deduction six years ago. He has achieved what most Republican governors are still fighting for – curtailing the collective-bargaining power of public-sector unions.”

Mr. Yue recently wrote a Washinton Times op-ed on Daniels’ handling of unions.

Yue is not alone in his thinking. On the condition of anonymity several Republican County Chairman in both Washington and Oregon, independently confirm Yue’s opinion as to why Daniels is popular among Republicans in the Pacific Northwest. One conservative Washington County Republican chair who voted for Tim Pawlenty in the January 31st straw poll, says that those who voted in the Republican gathering in Washington State, “looked at his [Mitch Daniels] ability to bring a state that had as a big a budget mess as Indiana, and bring it into good fiscal circumstances, and liked what they saw and voted for him” They add that what Daniels did Indiana “was impressive”.

The same G.O.P. leader also credits Daniels popularity in the region to the fact that the wave that the nation saw in 2010, didn’t make it to Washington state. They add, “Washington and Oregon have a substantial moderate influence in them”. Another point made was that the Republican conference in Washington that made Daniels the winner of their straw poll “had a higher percentage of young people in attendance and they are more moderate of what is typical.”

But a former Republican operative and leader in Washington State’s Pacific County has a different opinion. They tell White House 2012 the following;

“Mitch Daniels is not that popular in Washington and Oregon. He is relatively unknown.. except among political wonks.”

That same figureadds that those in attendance at the Washington and Oregon conferences “were NOT the Republican Committees that voted in a straw poll. They claim that these events…….

“were attended by a wide variety of center-right political activists. They are not part of the Republican Party. They are organized and sponsored by conservative and Republican political operatives”

Theformer leader and stillGOP insider adds;

“The attendees consist of politically minded people who favor fiscal conservatives. The nature of the conferences tends not to focus on social conservative issues. Hence, the people who attend are somewhat like the candidate.”

This explanation tends to make a bit more sense. For while Washington and Oregon may have their own problems with public service unions, they are no worse off than other states which are seeing similar problems. Therefore, I can’t see why the way Mitch Daniels handled unions in his state, would stand out so much more among Republicans in the Pacific Northwest than it does, say in the South or states like Iowa.

But the opinions I have gathered confirm a few things. First, they do make it clear that Mitch Daniels has a solid reputation among Republican activists on fiscal issues, a still most important one as we move closer to the 2012 election. It also proves that Mitch Daniels still has some problems with social conservatives. This is in itself odd because while Mitch Daniels actually has one of the most socially conservative records of all the possible Republican presidential contenders, he is not known for his political stances on those issues which he once famously stated that Republicans should “call a truce” on. That remark has hurt him among social conservatives who now doubt Daniels’ commitment to the issues important to them. While this may not help Daniels with the far right base of the Party, it does help him in what one Republican county chairman from Oregon calls their “moderate” base.

The funny thing is that the far right might eventually come to see strength in Mitch’s, ‘actions speak louder than words’ approach to their social agenda. They might also come to understand that what Mitch meant by his call for a truce, is that we must prioritize and right now the priority is jobs, our fragile economy, and our crushing national debt.

The fact that such things are a priority for Mitch Daniels are the very same reasons why the more moderate “higher percentage of young people” who attended the recent Republican gathering in Oregon, tend to support Mitch. It may also eventually be realized that if Republicans are going to remain competitive as we move forward, they will need these younger, more moderate voters behind them, as they are with Mitch Daniels.

Either way, Mitch Daniels’ straw poll victories in the Pacific Northwest are not necessarily representative of the opinion on the street, but it does show that he has some committed activists who may be important in organizing at the grassroots level. And while the results of the Washington and Oregon straw polls may not be a true precursor of things to come, one thing is quite clear, Mitch Daniels’ reputation on economic matters, budgets and his handling of unions, precedes him and it helps him. It helps among Republican of all stripes.

In Oregon, another Republican County leader who did not attend the recent Dorchester event where the Republican straw poll was taken, said she was “surprised” by the results but added “the more I learn about Mitch Daniels, the more I am impressed by him”.

It remains to be seen if the Daniels’ winning streak in the Northwest corner of the nation can be maintained elsewhere. Other straw polls of similar Republican activists in places like Iowa, South Carolina and New Hampshire have not produced the same winning results. But that could change if Mitch Daniels becomes an actual presidential candidate. However; that decision may now lie in the hands of Democrats in the Indiana state legislature. Mitch Daniels has promised not to make a decision on a run for President till the end of the Indiana state legislative session which is suppose to be in April. But now, thanks to a confrontation between them and Daniels on the issue of unions, Democrats are holding the Daniels agenda hostage and risk extending the legislative session too long for him to enter the presidential race.

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