Click Here to Join White House 2012 at CPAC Via Our Official Livestream of the Conference

Bookmark and Share    Today is CPAC and as an official CPAC Blog, White House 2012 is proud to have our own David  Cowan reporting to us from CPAC.

We are also proud to provide you with a White House 2012 livestream of the event provided to us by CPAC.  To join this gala conservative extravaganza live, simply click on the live feed at the following link http://videosrvr.com/player/1328470235957283072


Click here for a schedule of events and to find out when your favorite leader will be speaking.

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Gingrich Drops a Knockout Punch Money Bomb, Santorum Goes on the Attack, and Romney Tries to Stay Intact

Bookmark and Share   The three major candidates that will be moving on to compete in the Florida primary on January 31st, are all trying to set a tone that will allow them to come leave South Carolina with the type of momentum and enthusiasm that they will need to do as best as they can in the Sunshine State.

Following his third place showing in South Carolina, Rick Santorum, sent an email out to his supporters that tried to stress how this nomination is anyone’s to win.

According to Santorum’s email;

“For the first time, three different candidates have won the first three contests of the Republican nomination contest.  It’s a clear signal from voters that this race is still wide open. And that’s why we must keep the pressure on.”

Santorum goes a step further and tries to motivate his supporters by getting them angry at Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich while also taking swipes at their electability.  In the case of Mitt Romney, he writes;

“The Romney campaign is now nervous. Just a few weeks ago they were talking about a “clean sweep” in the first three primary states. Now it looks like they are one for three — just like our campaign and Newt’s.

That’s why the former frontrunner’s Boston-based consultants launched a series of misleading robocalls against me in South Carolina. I guess they think that’s the way to win elections.

I’ve got news for them. You can’t fool voters, and when you try, they turn on you. That’s why Romney’s campaign is on the ropes and, frankly, acting desperate.”

In regards to Newt Gingrich, Santorum states;

“Newt, on the other hand, thinks if he puts his ego on display, voters will like it. There’s no doubt Newt talks the talk. Problem is, when you look at his record, he doesn’t walk the walk. Leading Republicans have said nominating Newt would be “a disaster” for the Party. When I point that out, Newt starts attacking my “electability”. People in glass houses shouldn’t throw stones.”

Santorum adds;

Our campaign won’t stand for attacks like these. At the same time, we won’t sink to their level. I intend to continue pushing my positive, values-based campaign without taking cheap shots at my opponents. Voters who hear our message like what we have to say — and I will continue to draw a sharp contrast between our vision for America and that of President Obama’s.

For his part, moments after he delivered his remarks following the release of the Palmetto State primary election results, the now again, former frontrunner for the nomination, Mitt Romney, tried to convey a sense of urgency to his own supporters by trying to make them aware of how important Florida is to his campaign and letting them know this nomination contest is a real fight.  He stated;

“This is a hard fight because there is so much worth fighting for.  Tomorrow we take our fight to Florida — a state that knows too well the failures of President Obama.  A lot is at stake in Florida in 10 days. But we cannot stop there. The road to the White House this November will go through Florida.”

Right before he took to the stage in South Carolina to declare his first primary election victory, Newt’s campaign emailed supporters a message that was intended to insure that they remain motivated by their almost inherent disgust for the mainstream and Washington establishment.

Newt wrote;

“Our success in yesterday’s South Carolina primary is a result of one thing: a national movement of conservative patriots who want to see bold solutions enacted to rebuild the America we love. The political establishment in Washington and their allies in the liberal media have written our campaign off as dead – not once, but twice! But here’s something they couldn’t account for: the American people know that we need a Reagan conservative to debate Obama, to draw stark contrasts with Obama, and to make sure we defeat Obama!”

And in an attempt to undermine Rick Santorum, Newt also tried to establish himself as the one viable conservative alternative to Mitt Romney and uses Sarah Palin and Rick Perry as evidence of the type conservatives who are behind him.  He writes;

“Over the last few days, we’ve seen conservatives in South Carolina – and across the country – unify behind our bold campaign of ideas. With support from great conservatives like Rick Perry, Sarah Palin, Michael Reagan, 100 Tea Party leaders, and millions of proud Americans it doesn’t matter how despicable the attacks from the media get, together we will continue to persevere. This election is about fundamentally changing the direction of our nation, and I am honored to represent the ideas of freedom and prosperity for the conservative movement.”

The Gingrich campaign then makes a pitch for some of the much needed money that they will have to raise if they intend to compete effectively against Romney in Florida.  They launch a money bomb called the “Knockout Punch” and Gingrich adds;

“If you want to watch us run circles around Barack Obama in the debates with bold conservative ideas, then please make a donation today as part of our two-day “knockout punch” money bomb! Help us solidify the conservative momentum, join our campaign today!

 Clearly, South Carolina has put the pressure on each of the three most serious   candidates remaining in the race.
Romney must finally try to convince conservatives that he really is one of them.  Rick Santorum must try to remain relevant by avoiding another third place showing.  And Newt Gingrich must try to prove that his landslide victory in South Carolina was not a fluke and that he really is capable of going all the way.
And with each of these three men having won one statewide nomination contest apiece, each of them wants to desperately break that tie.  Right now the money is on Romney in Florida, but if you recall, less than ten days prior to the South Carolina primary, the money was on Romney to win there too and look how that turned out for him.
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A Close Look at Newt Gingrich’s Landlside Victory in South Carolina

Bookmark and Share   Newt Gingrich’s victory in South Carolina was nothing less than astonishing and while it marked Newt’s second return to life during this election cycle, it hardly makes the race for the Republican presidential nomination any clearer than it was after the two previous state contests.  What it did do though was make clear that Mitt Romney has some big problems.  So does Gingrich, but Newt’s problem seems to be more with the general electorate than the Republican electorate.

Final Results for the South Carolina Republican Presidential Primary

According to a breakdown of the votes which produced an impressive 12% lead over Mitt Romney, the rival to come closest to him, in addition to so far winning 23 of the 25 delegates from the state, Newt won almost every single Republican demographic in the state.  He defeated all the other candidates among just about every voting bloc.  He took a majority of the vote among women, men, urban voters, suburban voters, voters with high school level educations and college educations, voters of all income brackets, and he even won a majority of votes among those who describe themselves not just as conservative Republicans, but even among those who describe themselves liberal Republicans.  However; Romney did beat Gingrich among self described moderates with 36% of them for Mitt,  to 31% for Newt.

Gingrich not only won a plurality of evangelical Christians, he won Catholics and Protestants, as well as both married and single voters.

The only demographics that Newt did lose were those between the ages of 18 and 29, and  those who said that a candidates religion either mattered very little in their choice of candidate, or not at all.

Ron Paul won the 18 to 29 year old age group with 32% of their vote, to 27% of their vote for Gingrich.  As seen in the table below, that 5% margin between Newt and Ron Paul tightens up in the older half of that age bracket, where 25 to 29 year olds gave Ron Paul 31% of the vote and Newt Gingrich 29% of their vote.

As for those who find little or no importance in a candidate’s sharing similar religious beliefs with them, Mitt Romney beats Gingrich by anywhere from 3 to 10%, as seen below;

The only real significance that can be found within those numbers have less to do with Romney and Gingrich, and more to do with Rick Santorum.

Last week, 150 national evangelical leaders gathered in Texas and decided to endorse Rick Santorum.  Their hope was to essentially unite the evangelical vote behind one of Mitt’s Romney’s rivals in an attempt to deny Romney the ability to win the nomination.  As I predicted at the time, the move did not work.  Clearly, evangelical voters said those 150 religious leaders can do what they want, because they were going to do their own thing.  In this case, they went for Newt, not Santorum.  As I stated at the time, those evangelical leaders did more harm to their cause than good. In addition to looking unorganized, they now look powerless and have diminished the amount of clout that their future endorsements may carry.

Meanwhile, while Ron Paul narrowly defeated Gingrich among the younest voters, who accounted for 9% of the total vote in South Carolina, he quite surprisingly lost two groups that he desperatley needed for a strong showing.

One of those groups were Independents.

South Carolina’s open primary system allows Independents to vote in the Republican primary.  This was the case in  Iowa and New Hampshire too, and in both those states, Independent voters were in fact the main reason Ron Paul did as well as he did in those states.  I have often stated, if left up to Republicans, Ron Paul is nothing but a second tier candidate and exit polls in South Carolina supported that conclusion.  But in addition to receiving the least support from Republicans, Ron Paul also lost the Independent vote. And not just to Newt Gingrich, but to Mitt Romney as well.

Among Independents, Gingrich beat Paul by 7%, and Mitt Romney beat Paul by 1%.

Another big defeat for Ron Paul was his loss of the military vote.

Ron Paul prides himself on a statistic which he uses to claim that he receives more support from our military service members, than any other candidate.  Paul likes to make this claim because he believes that his statistic regarding fundraising from servicemen and women, provides him cover for his reckless and dangerous isolationist foreign and national defense policies.  The suggestion is that if the military supports him more than any other candidate, they must like his defense and foreign policies and therefore, they are good policies.

If such were really the case though, South Carolina would be extremely fertile territory for Ron Paul to pull off an electoral coup in.  With several substantial military installations in the state, South Carolina has one of the largest active duty and veteran populations in the nation.  Between that and the state’s open primary system which allows Independents and even Democrats to vote in the Republican primary, if Ron Paul could win any state, South Carolina is that one.  But in addition to losing the Independent vote, Ron Paul also lost the military vote.  And not just by a little and not just to Newt Gingrich.  He lost to Rick Santorum by 4%, Mitt Romney by 20%, and Newt Gingrich by a whopping 27%.

In general, while the results were incredibly good for Newt in South Carolina, they were actually very embarrassing for Ron Paul.

All in all, these numbers help to establish that Newt Gingrich is most certainly a serious threat to Mitt Romney.

While South Carolina is not a the most accurate example of national consensus, it is a relatively good representative picture of national Republican sentiments and an even better predictor of Republican presidential nominees.  But if nothing else, it is a an excellent indicator of how tough it may be for Romney to survive the Southern primaries.

Florida will be the real test for both Romney and Gingrich though.

If there is any Southern state which Romney has an excellent chance of winning, it is Florida.

Florida, may be very Republican, and very conservative, but it has a significant Jewish population. The largest Jewish population in all the South.  That voting bloc tends to be more moderate and liberal, and therefore perfect prospective supporters of Mitt Romney, the man Newt describes as a “Massachusetts moderate”.   In the general election, this Jewish vote in Florida will be critical to winning the state and the presidency, and if recent history is any indication, they may easily be persuaded to vote Republicans, or at least against President Obama.

Several months ago, in a special election to replace disgraced New York liberal Congressman Anthony Weiner, a Republican won that heavily heavily Jewish congressional seat which crosses New York City’s counties of Brooklyn and Queens.  It is a district which has been in Democrat hands for practically a hundred years, yet thanks to a Jewish vote that is very unhappy with President Obama and his policies with Israel and his horrible treatment of Israeli Prime Minster Benjamin Netanyahu, Jewish voters elected a relatively conservative, Republican to replace Anthony Weiner.

This all means that the Jewish vote will be quite important and in Florida, it could make the difference between winning and losing in the primary between Mitt and Newt, and winning and losing in the general election between President Obama and whoever the eventual Republican presidential nominee is.

If Newt were smart, he would be headed for Florida right now and direct his campaign operatives to focus in on the Jewish vote and accentuate what is Newt’s very real, very pro-Israel policy record.  As Speaker of the House, Newt accumulated an extremely powerful and very lengthy, positive record on Israel, and that record could provide the margin of victory for Newt over Mitt in Florida.

If Newt can prevent Mitt Romney from winning Florida, he will have a better than 50-50 chance at becoming the Republican nominee. The numbers behind the numbers  in South Carolina, support that.  But in order for Newt to reach those odds, he will have to undermine Romney’s strengths in the Sunshine State.  One of them is money.  Another is organization, and the other is the moderate and liberal element of the Republican Party.  Newt will have the support of conservatives and evangelicals, so long as he does not start attacking from the left again.  All he needs is to win over enough of the moderates to prevent Mitt from getting another Santorum-like 34 vote victory and his uphill battle for the big prize will get a lot less steeper.

For a more comprehensive look at the numbers behind the final election numbers you can visit here .

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Real Time South Carolina Republican Presidential Primary Results

Final Election results of the South Carolina Republican Presidential Primary

Newt Gingrich Wins South Carolina and Becomes the Undisputed Alternative to Mitt Romney

Bookmark and Share  In what can only be seen as a setback for Mitt Romney, former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich upended the political world with a significant victory in the first in South Republican Presidential Primary.

Despite bad weather in the interior sections of the state which contained some of the most favorable territory for Gingrich, the Georgia Republican overcame a massive, well financed, campaign effort for Mitt Romney that was led by South Carolina’s own Governor, Nikki Haley and upset the perceived frontrunner for the nomination and has gone a long way in establishing himself as the long sought after, undisputed conservative to Mitt Romney.

Early exit polls indicate that Gingrich did surprises well among most all demographics, including women, an important and significant voting bloc which many felt would be problematic for Newt because of  two divorces and a history of marital indefinite.  This problem was compounded by a recent ABC Nightline News interview with Gingrich’s second wife Marianne Gingrich

One factor that cannot be ignored here is that these results were influenced not just by Republicans.  South Carolina has an open primary, which means that Independents can vote in the Republican nomination contest.  By all rights, such open primaries benefit Ron Paul’s more than any of the others.  Those Independent voters were largely responsible for the numbers that helped Ron Paul a third place finish in Iowa and a second place showing in New Hampshire.

Clearly, they did not boost Ron Paul’s fortunes in South Carolina but if they went to Newt and helped form his winning coalition in the palmetto State, it could be a sign that Newt may be a much better general election candidate than some have suggested to this point.

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The Complete ABC News Interview With Marianne Gingrich. Just What Newt Needed

 Bookmark and Share   Thursday night’s ABC News hit piece on former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich has proven to be a blessing in disguise for his presidential ambitions [see the complete interview below this post]. While it may have stirred the pot, the truth is that if you disliked Newt Gingrich before you saw the interview, you will continue to find reason to dislike him.  And if you liked Newt or were at least open to his leadership direction prior to the interview with his ex-wife, you still like him and are still open to the prospect of his becoming President of the United States.

In other words, the interview that Marianne Gingrich and ABC News conducted in what Marianne admitted was an attempt to derail Newt’s campaign, did nothing to affect people’s opinion of him.  Recent polls would seem to bear that out.  But in another sense, the blatant malicious intent behind Marianne Gingrich and the unethical assault on Newt by ABC News did provide Newt with an opportunity.  An opportunity to successfully rally conservatives together in another widespread denunciation of the liberal media and their obvious liberal biases.  And few candidates have been able to do that better or more often than Newt Gingrich has.  Throughout the nearly 20 debates that the G.O.P. presidential candidates have particpated in, at least a third of all his extraordinary success in those debates is directly related to his ability to prove the media elites to be partisan hacks for the liberal establishment and essentially corporate satellites for the D.N.C.

Between the the timing of the ABC interview and the fact that everything Marianne stated was literally old news that she repeated in the same script she read to Esquire Magazine 10 years ago, not only was this Nightline interview not news, it was also totally unbalanced.

In a court of law, the testimony provided Marianne in her exchange with Brian Ross would have been considered tainted and the unreliable word of a hostile witness.  However; the court of public opinion is far less fair than a court of laws where ethics and rules are followed.  In the court of public opinion, the domain of ABC News, Newt Gingrich did not have an opportunity to cross-examine the witness.  In ABC News’ circus-like, court of public opinion Marianne Gingrich was not pressed to prove her accusations.  She was not asked to show evidence that proved she was telling the truth that she allegedly knew Newt would call her at night while lying with Callista, his eventual wife-to-be,  in the  bed of the Washington, D.C. apartment that Marianne and Newt called home.  But what does the truth have to do with news and journalism?

Ultimately, more people are realizing that not only is Marianne Gingrich an unrelaible character witness, more and more they seeing that the mainstream media is an unreliable source of actual facts and news.  They are seeing that networks like ABC are not even pretending to be non-partisan anymore and that when it comes to double standards regarding liberals and conservatives, the mainstream media is overloaded.  They see how while the deathbed cheating on Elizabeth Edwards by former Al Gore running mate and liberal North Carolina Senator John Edwards, was an  indisputable scandal because it involved a misuse of campaign funds that broke the law, there was not nearly as much attention paid to that breech of conduct and public trust as there is to what is nothing but a personal matter between Gingrich and his ex-wife.

Of course though, the left will accuse the right of having the double standard.

As ABC News reported in the Marianne Gingrich piece, the affair that Newt was having with Callista occurred at the same time Newt was leading the impeachment charge against President Bill Clinton during the Monica Lewisnky affair.  The problem is that when you compare apples to oranges, all you have are two different items.  In this case, you have two different issues.  The Clinton impeachment had little to do with B.J. Clinton’s extramarital affair with a White House intern.  Liberals would like you to believe that, but the fact is that issue was not his semen stains on an interns blue dress, it was the fact that the Commander-in-Chief lied under oath to a grand jury.  The semen stains were merely evidence that proved the President was guilty of committing perjury.  That is a little something called a crime.  And according to the Constitution of the United States, certain crimes are impeachable.  Did anyone ever hear of Richard Nixon?

The whole Lewinsky impeachment debate  had little to do with what President Clinton lied about and everything to do with the fact that he lied and broke the oath he swore when giving his testimony involving the Whitewater investigation, and his presidential oath of office…….you know, the oaths in which you swear to tell the truth and nothing but the truth, and swear to uphold the Constitution of the United States.

Newt Gingrich was not on trial for breaking any laws and Marianne Gingrich was not sworn to tell the truth when she took ABC News up on the opportunity to exact revenge on her ex-husband.

Personally, for me, the whole episode did nothing but confirm thatof the mainstream media is sleazy and lacks integrity.

But it did also force me to question one thing about Newt Gingrich.  After seeing the frumpy, shrew-like, vindictive Marianne Gingrich in action, I couldn’t help but wonder what poor taste Newt had in the past.  What he saw in Marianne Gingrich, I will never know, but after listening to her, I can only  thank the good Lord that Newt came to his senses and gave that bitter Biddy what she deserved.

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Romney Makes Final Pitch to South Carolinians

Bookmark and Share    As the polls now place Newt Gingrich back ahead of Mitt Romney in South Carolina, Romney is making a final push to help avoid a second place finish that will do nothing but help narrow the election down to what will realistically amount to a two man race for the Republican presidential nomination.

Much of the last minute push consists of a heavy dose of last minute campaigning with the latest big name to endorse him, Virginia Governor Bob McDonnell and he continues to hit the trail with the Palmetto State’s Governor, Nikki Haley.

Below you will find  Romney’s most recent video pitch to South Carolinians.

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Virginia Governor Bob McDonnell Endorses Mitt Romney

Bookmark and Share   Early this morning, Virginia Governor Bob McDonnell who once declared that he would not be endorsing a candidate in the Republican presidential contest has seemingly reversed course and thrown his considerable clout behind Mitt Romney for President.

McDonnell called Romney a “results-oriented conservative” who can appeal to Democrats and independents and he told CNBC that his message is that if you want to win the race in November, vote for Mitt Romney.

On Fox News, Governor McDonnell stated that Romney has a proven record in the public and private sector of getting things done and argued that there are only three issues that will really matter in the election………. one being job creation, another being the need to get rid of “this crushing national debt” and finally, leadership.  And it is on those issues that McDonnell says Romney can win.

While McDonnell’s support has some value, the most interesting aspect of the endorsement is the timing.  It comes one day before what could be a game changing result in the South Carolina Primary.  It is pretty clear that the Romney camp, which has mastered much of the art of political campaigning, has begun to sweat and so they decided now was the time to unleash the endorsement of the popular Southern Governor in the hopes that it will help stem the perceived surge that Newt Gingrich is riding as the race in South Carolina wraps up.

In case you haven’t heard, timing is everything and its not any different in politics.

If you recall, back in December, Newt Gingrich flew to the front of the then crowded G.O.P. field.  The problem was timing.  He peeked too early and in the two weeks leading up to the Iowa Caucuses, he saw that rapid rise to the top erode and ceded ground to Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum.  This time, in South Carolina, thanks to Newt’s ability to catch the crest of his wave at just the right moment, combined with a few well timed breezes at his back which consisted of Sarah Palin’s quasi-endorsement, Rick Perry’s suspension of his own campaign and endorsement of Newt’s, and two well executed debate performances, Gingrich looks like he is peaking just in time to be the first one to ride his wave across the Palmetto State finish line.   All of these conditions which have been beyond Romney’s control have forced him to play some cards that he has been holding close.  In this case, it is obvious that Gingrich’s success has Romney sweating enough to have forced his hand and play the McDonnell card.

How much it will help is questionable.

McDonnell promises to spend the closing hours of the campaign stomping in South Carolina, but Mitt already has the personal and organizational support of South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley and the insularly access to support from the state Party apparatus that comes with her.  And at the moment it is not stopping Gingrich from pulling ahead in the latest polls.

In my own estimation, I have concluded that even though McDonnell is a rising conservative star and a positive name to have your on side, in the case of Mitt Romney, McDonnell’s endorsement will actually benefit Newt Gingrich more than Mitt.  As the perceived “establishment” candidate, getting the endorsement of another elected  “establishment” politician, will help urge still undecided voters from among the large anti-establishment voting bloc, to move more Newt’s way than Mitt’s way.

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President Obama’s First Reelection Ad Raises a Question. How Dumb Does He Think We Are?

   Bookmark and Share    As he works hard to the raise the money to wage the first billion dollar presidential campaign in history, the Fundraiser-in Chief has already launched the first television ads of his reelection campaign [see ad below].  In it, Billion Buck Barry claims everyone is lying about him and that he has ruled over the most ethical presidential Administration Americans have ever known.   To support his point, the President’s reelection team tries to validate their pitch by using quotes from ABC News and Common Cause, two of the most prolific purveyors of liberal propaganda that those with an axe to grind and leftwing agenda to promote could ever find.

According to President Obama’s political gurus, Americans are suppose to believe that ABC News is a reliable source of “fact checkers” and that Common Cause is a non-partisan judge of fairness and honesty.

This is the same ABC News…….keyword being “news”………. which decided that regurgitating a 2010 Esquire Magazine interview with the disgruntled ex-wife of Speaker Newt Gingrich, two days before a critical primary election, was newsworthy.

This is the same Common Cause which is led by Bob Edgar, a former 6 term liberal Pennsylvania Democrat Congressman, Robert Reich, the former Clinton Labor Secretary who is now a leftwing professor at the University of California at Berkeley, and others like Ric Bainter, a one time liberal Democrat candidate for Secretary of State in Colorado, and other more prominent figures from the liberal elite of Hollywood like Richard Dreyfuss.

Unless you live under rock or spend most of your time standing in line to gain entry in to a Lady Gaga concert or Dennis Kucinich fundraiser, I am not sure how serious one can take the word of ABC News and Common Cause and how they can be viewed as credible guarantors of truth and facts, but that is what the Obama reelection team hopes.

And if that wasn’t bad enough, the ad uses the remaining fifteen seconds to convince us that President Obama is one of the most successful managers of America’s energy future.

At one point, the very serious sounding voice narrating this fairytale, claims that President Obama for the first time in 13 years, America’s consumption of foreign oil is below the 50% mark.

That may sound attractive, but what the narration does not disclose is the reason we are consuming less foreign oil is because President Obama has successfully sustained the longest running economic downturns since the Great Depression.  And as a result, with rising prices,  less jobs, and less money available to consumers, Americans are consuming less energy.  Afterall, when President Obama came in to office, gasoline was $1.89 a gallon.  Now, almost four years later, that same gallon of gas costs nearly twice as much.  The reason we are using 50% less foreign oil is simply because our economy is practically 50% as strong as strong as it once was.

To make matters worse, the ad tries to credit President Obama with orchestarting a so-called energy policy that has created 2.7 million jobs.  However the facts show that under President Obama, the nation has had a net loss of just a touch over  2 million jobs and that does not factor in the lack of jobs that still exists for the more than 3 million people who came of age and increased the size of the eligible working population.  Nor does it include the six million people who have exhausted their unemployment benefits and dropped out of the working force…….the people who have simply given up and are not factored in to the jobless rate.  Check those facts out, then add them up and  tell me that President Obama created more jobs than he lost since taking office.

But wait!

It all gets worse.

In addition to this ad using the lies of reliably biased liberal front groups and hacks, the Obama reelection team decided to release it one day after the President told our Canadian allies that creating real jobs by allowing the Keystone Pipeline project to proceed so that we could tap in to domestic energy sources, was a bad idea and therefore we will not allow it to move forward.

Just one day after Barack Obama caters to his radical environmentalist political donors and refuses to pursue a policy that kills two birds with one stone by creating jobs and achieving a real degree of energy independence, he runs an ad claiming that he has created jobs and made us less reliant upon foreign oil. Which brings me to my original question.

How dumb does he think we are?

Between the emerging Solyndra scandal, and the Keystone decision, this ad almost seems to be a Saturday Night Live skit.  Yet the President and his people are serious.  They clearly expect a segment of voters to believe his wild claims and outright lies.  They truly believe that people will fall for the ads opening claim that “secretive oil billionaires” are plotting against the President as if we were watching some poorly done episode of Batman with evil villains plotting a takeover of Gotham City by framing the mayor and finally giving The Joker with his chance to begin taking over the world.

Which brings us to another issue the ad neglects to mention.

Was it not President Obama who received a million dollar donation to his presidential campaign from BP, before he gave the Deepwater Horizon oil rig a safety award, and exempted them from certain safety regulations right before that same rig exploded and spent that , “Summer of Recovery” spewing enough oil in to the Gulf of Mexico to create our nation’s greatest environmental disaster?  So who is President Obama kidding?  He has much blood, or in this case oil, on his hands as the next politician who is getting their own palms greased by big oil.

Between the President’s history and his first reelection ad, I am not sure exactly how dumb he thinks we are, but it is quite apparent that he is hoping we are dumber than the people he has filled his Cabinet with.  I also know that when it comes to the two things President Obama tries to address in this commercial, jobs and energy, they are the two issues which he is most vulnerable on and if this is his way of trying to inoculate himself from attacks on those issues, than he just lost the election.

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Video Of Rick Perry’s Decision to Suspend His Campaign and to Endorse Newt Gingrich

Bookmark and Share Below is video of Governor Perry endorsing Speaker Newt Gingrich after annoucning that he was suspending his own campaign for President.

According to Governor Perry;

“I believe Newt is a Conservative visionary who can transform our country.  We’ve had our differences which campaigns will inevitably have, and Newt is not perfect, but who among us is?  The fact is, there is forgiveness for those who seek God.  And I believe in the power of redemption for it is a central tenant of my Christian faith.  I have no question that Newt Gingrich has the heart of a Conservative reformer, the ability to rally and captivate the Conservative movement.  The courage to tell those Washington interests to take a hike if that is in the best interest of our country.”  

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The Mistake That is Iowa: Santorum Beats Romney………Maybe

Bookmark and Share   Up to now, Iowa’s erroneous Caucus results created a narrative that allowed Mitt Romney to be the first non-incumbent Republican presidential candidate to win both the Iowa Caucus and the New Hampshire Primary.  The distinction really did not mean much.  Both New Hampshire and Iowa award delegates on a proportional basis and neither actually determine who the nominee is.  However the public perception of two seeming back to back victories for Mitt Romney had a profound effect on the perception shaping the ongoing nomination contests.  Romney’s strong showing and one time 8 vote victory in Iowa along with his landslide win in New Hampshire, helped to establish him, at least psychologically, as the inevitable Republican presidential nominee.  In turn, that perception gave Mitt a leg up on his opponents by denying them, at least some  momentum and money.

Now it comes out that in an attempt to certify the Iowa Caucus results,  there are 34  more votes for Rick Santorum than Mitt Romney which can be accounted for.

The problem is that there is unknown number of votes from 8 different voting precincts which can’t be accounted for.

This has forced the Iowa G.O.P. to formally declare the Caucus a virtual tie between Romney and Santorum.

However, in his never ending attempt to capitalize on what his undeniably overwhelming finish in Iowa, Rick Santorum is focussing in on the the votes which can be accounted for and give him a technical victory in the Hawkeye State.  Upon the newly unofficial certification of the election results, Santorum released the following email to supporters;

As I stated, between the closeness of the Iowa Caucus and the proportional basis which Iowa awards delegates, makes who won by a handful of votes not very important.  And seeing as how Santorum achieved such a close result by spending hardly any money in the state and still going from the bottom of the pack to the front of the field, Santorum was the real winner regardless of who technically won.  But the perceptions created by the mishandling of the caucus results did have an undue, albeit minimal effect on history and the early stages of the 2012 Republican presidential nomination.

That fact makes it clear that there was one real big, undeniable, loser here.  it was the Iowa State Republican Party.

Their inability to properly oversee the most basic aspect of our democratic process is a embarrassing blemish that makes one wonder how much we should rely upon their Party Caucus when it comes to selecting a presidential nominee.  If these people can’t even count accurately, I am not too confident in their ability to pick presidents.

Perhaps Jon Huntsman was right when he said that Iowa picks corn while other states pick Presidents.

No matter what, this tabulating error was an inauspicious way to kick off the 2012 presidential election cycle and conjures up fears of another chad-ridden, presidential election in 2000, a repeat of which our troubled nation truly does not need.

Thanks Iowa.

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Newt Surges in South Carolina

Bookmark and Share   A new Rasmussen poll shows that despite nearly forcing another collapse of his campaign with left-wing attacks against Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich is experiencing his second surge in the 2012 election cycle just days before South Carolinians go to the polls to select a republican presidential nominee.

The latest Rasmussen Reports survey shows Mitt Romney holding on to his lead with 30%, but the real story is that Newt Gingrich who two weeks ago was at 16%, has pulled nearly even with Mitt Romney and now has 27% of the vote.

While Romney’s numbers remain virtually unchanged from two weeks ago, the other story aside from Newt’s surge,  is that even though a bloc of evangelical leaders recently voted to endorse Rick Santorum, the former Pennsylvania Senator seems to be wearing thin on South Carolinians as he backslides going from 21% to his current third place showing at 15%.

As for the remaining candidates in the race Texas Congressman Ron Paul holds steady at 13% support from likely primary voters, and Texas Governor Rick Perry remains in last place with four percent 4%.

According to Rasmussen, another 4% like some other candidate in the race, and  7% are undecided.

Adding to the good news for Gingrich is the fact that these poll numbers were taken before Wednesday evening’s, late night, semi-endorsement of Gingrich in South Carolina by Sarah Palin.

As good as the news seems to be for Gingrich in the short term, the Rasmussen poll does not show any significant signs of long term good news for Newt.

Nationally approximately 70% of all Republicans now expect Romney to ultimately be the nominee and Mitt continues to hold a sizeable lead in Florida, the important Southern primary that will take place on January 31st, ten days after South Carolina holds its contest.

All of this suggests that Romney is still headed for the nomination but clearly, he is not assured of smooth sailing across the finish line, and under the circumstances, if Newt can defeat Romney in the Palmetto State primary, it may indeed turn the nomination contest in to an entirely new contest.  At least until Florida.

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Newt Gingrich Turns Strong Debate Performance In to a Strong Campaign Ad

Bookmark and Share   One of the most powerful performance in the recent Fox News, South Carolina presidential debate came from Newt Gingrich when panelist Juan Williams asked Newt Gingrich if past remarks he made were racially insensitive.  Few knew that what Williams was actually doing was setting the stage for a moment that Newt Gingrich would turn in to debate history.

The intentionally designed, racially charged, question was meant to put the former House Speaker on the spot and confront a sensitive issue.  Yet Gingrich automatically dismissed the premiss of the question by simply answering “no”.  Then what followed that simple word was an example of inspired oratory skill  that was an eloquent and powerful recitation of shared, basic American principles which were stated with the type of ease, conviction, and forcefulness that could only be carried off by someone who is a true believer in those principles.  They were the principles of equality and personal responsibility, principles which Newt Gingrich used to defy liberal thinking with and to  defend conservative ideology with.

Now Newt turned that moment in to a 30 second ad which will air in South Carolina [see the ad below].

It is called “The Moment” and it takes the most powerful portion of Newt’s answer to Juan Williams’ questions and turns it in to a Lincolnesque moment in history.

For me, this is the first time I have seen Newt Gingrich’s campaign coordinate itself well.  It is the first time he has taken a positive event for his candidacy and build upon it in any meaningful way.

Up to now, Newt has failed miserably at maximizing opportunities.  This time he didn’t.

The new ad not only reminds those who saw the debate from which the Gingrich speech in the commercial comes from, but it affords those who did not see it, the opportunity to be inspired by his words the same way that the audience who heard those words live did.

Between the lack of time left in the campaign and the lack of money available to Newt, I am not sure if this ad will be seen by enough people to make the difference between first and second place in South Carolina, but it is  probably the best chance Newt has at making sure his campaign stays alive for even just a little longer.

For those of you who missed the debate that this “moment” comes from, below you will find the entire segment, including the question from Juan Williams which inspired Newt Gingrich’s inspired answer.

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Where New Hampshire Leaves Us

Bookmark and Share    The results of the Live Free or Die State’s first in the nation primary, did little to change minds or establish any great degree of certainty about the final outcome when Republicans gather to nominate a President in September.  Yet despite all the hand ringing, flavors of the many different weeks, sniping about who is to liberal, and general exasperation over the lack of perfection in the presidential field, I do believe that just as was the case in Iowa and now New Hampshire, Mitt Romney will be the Republican presidential nominee.  However, nothing is set in stone and as masterfully noted in a recent post by MDuminiak, there are a number of unique circumstances facing the now undeniable Republican frontrunner, Mitt Romney.

As I have mentioned in the past, there is a significant possibility for Republicans to see their first brokered convention since 1976.  In his post “Hollow Victories”, MDuminak cites several factors that could lead up to such an event.  They include the penalties which strip several states of half their delegate counts for holding earlier than allowed primaries and the proliferation of states that have moved to a proportional allocation of their delegates rather than the usual winner-take-all system that dominated the process in the past.

Even so, while right now it does look like there is a good possibility for a brokered convention , I am convinced that all the speculation will be proven wrong and by the time September comes along, many will find it hard to remember just how contested the nomination seemed to be, or that most of us tried to make it out to be.

Many may find that hard to believe, but if history is any indication, that is exactly the way it will be when Mitt Romney accepts the nomination and nominates his running mate.  To believe that though, requires an interpretation of exactly where New Hampshire leaves us.

 Mitt Romney:

Romney finally cracked that 25% mark that has helped many to question his electability as a Republican.  But it was in a state friendly to Mitt and that is seen as less conservative than many other states.  Nonetheless, he did exceed his 25% high watermark and achieved what can only be called a landslide victory.

But there is more to consider as Romney moves on to the next battleground.

Mitt has played it safe.  He has not offered a single bold initiative or major reform other than his promise to repeal Obamacare.  This has made it difficult for him to win over the reform minded TEA movement wing of the G.O.P. and nearly impossible for him to tap in to the general anti-establishment mood that permeates the electorate.  His lack of innovative, revolutionary, ideas have left many uninspired by him, myself included.   Yet all that Romney has carefully proposed can not be considered anything less than conservative.  They are just not things that could easily be painted as “extreme”.  That may not be a big hit with conservatives, but it does give Romney an advantage in the general election and that is exactly what Romney is trying to do…….run a general election campaign.  It was, and is a calculated risk that he decided on many months ago. when it became clear that conservatives were not going to have a single conservative alternative to Romney  to unite behind.

So Romney has been playing it safe, and for good reason.

While the rule of thumb is that Republicans must run to the right to get the nomination and then run to the middle to win the election, that old concept may not apply in 2012.

With Barack Obama accumulating a war chest of more than a billion dollars, Romney knows that if he runs too far to the right to get the nomination, Obama’s money may make it impossible for him to run back to the middle.   Obama’s historic spending could go a long way in painting Romney as the extremist who is more out of touch with Americans than the President himself is.

Then there is the fact that Romney is not exactly quite as condemned by conservatives as many would like you to believe.  Here is a man who for several years  priors to 2011, was elected the favorite conservative by CPAC.   In 2008, Mitt Romney was also the conservative alternative to John McCain.  And since then, Romney has only become more conservative, not more liberal.

This is probably why recent exit polling showed Romney beating all other candidates among even conservatives.  In many ways, according to the voters in Iowa and New Hampshire, Mitt Romney is the conservative alternative that conservatives were looking for.

Add to that the most well financed and organized campaign, combined with significant endorsements from people like South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley, and what you have is candidate who can buy,  organize, and win over all the delegates he needs to win the nomination.

Then of course there are all the factors working against each of  Mitt Romney’s rivals;

Ron Paul:

Ron Paul is performing far better than he ever has before.  Some may see this as a sign that his rhetoric is resonating.  And it is.  But not with Republicans.

While Republicans agree with much, if not all of Paul’s fiscal ideas and platitudes about the Constitution, they know that he is really not quite as unique as some of his worshippers think he is.  Many Republicans understand that Paul is more rhetoric than action and that when it comes to foreign policy and national defense, he is just irresponsible.  This is why polling, including exit polls from both the Iowa Caucus and the New Hampshire Primary, show :

a).- Ron Paul losses among self identified Republicans.

 b).- Ron Paul loses among self identified conservatives.

c).- Ron Paul, the mythological father of the TEA Party, even loses among those who identify themselves as TEA Party members and supporters.

Which leads us to the electoral irrelevance of Ron Paul.

Ron Paul’s inflated vote totals are arrived at through a unique coalition of liberals, independents, and youth who look upon their parent’s  days as hippie, love and peace, revolutionaries,  with nostalgic admiration and see it as the days when America had meaning.

Some suggest that we must thank Ron Paul for bringing these people in to the Republican Party.   Some do, but I don’t.

First of all, I have no need for liberals in my Party.  It’s bad enough that as a New York born resident of New Jersey, I am living among far too many Rockefeller Republicans already.  But more than that, none of these people are going to stay in the Republican Party, and none of these Paul fanatics are going to ever vote Republican.  They will either cast their lot with President Obama, vote for a third Party candidate, or not vote at all.  No matter which one of those three alternatives they choose, none of them were or are ever going to vote Republican.  Not unless Ron Paul becomes the nominee and that is just not ever going to happen.

So when it comes to Ron Paul, relax.

He has little to do with the G.O.P. and this is still the Republican presidential nomination we are talking about.  Will Ron Paul continue to get his message out?  Yes.  Will it change the results of the Republican presidential nomination contest?  No.

So Ron Paul is merely a distraction.

Jon Huntsman:

Huntsman did well in New Hampshire, but third place behind Ron Paul does not make him a rock a star and while he claimed that third place was his ticket to South Carolina, he better hope it’s a roundtrip ticket.  His 3rd place finish will not swing big money his way as it did for Rick Santorum after Iowa,  and with the lack of money that he has to invest in South Carolina, what you get is a candidate with no momentum and not enough tread on his wheels to get the type of traction he needs in South Carolina.

Huntsman like Paul, is now merely a distraction.

Rick Perry:

At this point, the only reason Perry is still running is because he wants to be there if the other candidates trip and fall as badly as he did.  Perry does not want to miss the chance to become the nominee by default if Romney or any combination of the others become the next Gary Hart and fall out of favor because of “Monkey Business”.

Perry is not even a distraction. He is just standing by and waiting to fill a vacancy that may never open up.  His only other hope is that the field stays relatively muddled until he can rack up a significant number of delegates from Texas and the rest of the deep South, West of Florida.  And even then he has to hope that fate provides him  with a brokered convention that make his delegate count important enough for him to have a big say as to who the nominee is.

Rick Santorum:

Santorum still has a chance to show some life in South Carolina.  Like Iowa, it is dominated by social conservatives and no one else has really  established themselves yet as the social conservative candidate.  On top of that, he now has money.  After raising significant amounts of money following his virtual tie with Romney in Iowa,  he could not spend it in New Hampshire because its primary was so close to Iowa’s caucus, that all the air time was already bought up.  That is not the case in South Carolina.

However, that is about all the momentum Santorum has left going in to South Carolina.  He was unable to turn his strong Iowa showing into a strong New Hampshire finish and coming in behind Newt Gingrich did not help at all.

So Santorum is not likely to defeat Mitt Romney in South Carolina but he could still emerge as a conservative alternative to Romney in Florida.

Newt Gingrich:

Gingrich is fading fast.  He really needed to at least beat Jon Huntsman if not Ron Paul too.  Instead he now goes in to South Carolina as an underfinanced, unorganized, bottom tier candidate. Yet if there is  any place he could turn things around, it is South Carolina.  Sadly though, I do not see him doing that.  Gingrich failed to ever accept the fact that although he may be an unconventional leader, there are some conventional aspects of a campaign that are so basic, that even he, Gingrich the Great, needed to employ them.  But he didn’t.  between that, a lack of structure,as well as a lack of a clear theme and message, and his experiment with attacking Mitt Romney from the left, it looks like South Carolina may be Newt’s last stand.

Even if Newt does surprise us all in South Carolina, I am afraid it is too late for him to do much with it.  Florida will be tougher for Newt and easier for Mitt than South Carolina, and with Newt’s lack of funds and Romney’s abundance of funds, Florida is where the inevitability factor may settle in for Mitt and help to dry up any remaining opportunities that his rivals might still have.

Does this mean it’s all over?

Not at all.

The game will still be played.

If  for nobody other than Ron Paul, the race will remain contested at least until Super Tuesday and probably beyond.  But the game won’t  be a very serious one.  It will mainly be talked up by political junkies like myself and rating starved talking heads who will claim Ron Paul is tearing the G.O.P. in half, and that he may go to the convention with enough delegates to change the Republican platform or determine who the presidential and vice presidential nominees are.  But such talk will be mere fantasy because in the end, Mitt Romney will reach the 1,128 delegates he needs for the Republican presidential nomination by March 20th or earlier.  And if he happens not to get it by then, he will do so no later than Tuesday, April 24th, when 231 delegates are up for grabs in the Mid-Atlantic version of Super Tuesday that will see the Romney rich states of Connecticut, Delaware, New York, Pennsylvania, and Rhode Island all hold their primaries.

Then, mark my words, all this talk about about how incompetent the Republican field was and how competitive it was, will all be a part of a hard to remember past, and no matter how much you dislike Mitt Romney now, you will not be disliking quite that much after he delivers his acceptance speech in September at the Republican National Convention.

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Live New Hampshire Primary Election Result Updates

286 of 301 Precincts Reporting – 95%
Name Party Votes Vote %
Romney, Mitt GOP 94,252 39%
Paul, Ron GOP 54,511 23%
Huntsman, Jon GOP 40,388 17%
Gingrich, Newt GOP 22,518 9%
Santorum, Rick GOP 22,292 9%
Perry, Rick GOP 1,668 1%
Roemer, Buddy GOP 898 0%
Total Write-ins GOP 788 0%
Bachmann, Michele GOP 341 0%
Karger, Fred GOP 331 0%
Rubash, Kevin GOP 246 0%
Johnson, Gary GOP 175 0%
Cain, Herman GOP 148 0%
Lawman, Jeff GOP 122 0%
Hill, Christopher GOP 103 0%
Linn, Benjamin GOP 82 0%
Meehan, Michael GOP 46 0%
Story, Joe GOP 39 0%
Drummond, Keith GOP 35 0%
Betzler, Bear GOP 29 0%
Robinson, Joe GOP 26 0%
Greenleaf, Stewart GOP 22 0%
Callahan, Mark GOP 18 0%
Swift, Linden GOP 17 0%
Martin, Andy GOP 16 0%
Wuensche, Vern GOP 15 0%
Brewer, Timothy GOP 14 0%
Davis, John GOP 13 0%
Crow, Randy GOP 12 0%
Cort, Hugh GOP 2 0%
Vestermark, James GOP 2 0%

Dixville Notch Opens the New Hampshire Primary With a Win for Romney and Huntsman

Bookmark and Share   With all the pomp and circumstance and meaning of Groundhog Day in Pennsylvania, New Hampshire has seen their first in the nation primary begin with the first voting in the state out of Dixville Notch.

Out of the 9 voters in the small town, 4 are Independent, 3 are Republican, and 2 are Democrats.  As is expected, most of the the Independent voters chose to vote in the Republican Primary and so out of the 6 votes cast in that contest, Mitt Romney and Jon Huntsman tied with 2 votes each.  Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul each received 1 vote.

On the Democratic side, President Obama won in a landslide, receiving all 2 of the registered Democrat voters and 1 Independent voter Dixville Notch.

Historically, Dixville Notch is about as good an indicator of voter sentiments in New Hampshire as Ron Paul is an example of responsible national security…………not at all.  But it is a good example of civic responsibility and participation in the democratic process and that is what’s it all about.  I would still have prefered that Independents were not allowed to influence the selection of who represents my Party but I am nonetheless glad to see that an end to the News Hampshire primary is in sight.  And short of a very unlikely surprise result in the Granite State, I am looking forward to the days leading up to the South Carolina Primary, a state primary contes twhich promises to provide a true proving ground for Mitt Romney and a real opportunity for any of his rivals who are still in the race after New Hampshire.

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McRomney: The Problem With John McCain’s Flip-Flop for Mitt Romney

Bookmark and Share   Back in December, White House 2012 took a look at John McCain’s expected endorsement of Mitt Romney.  At that time, McCain had stated that he would not endorse a candidate until after the Iowa Caucus.  White House 2012 anticipated that Romney might need to rely on the popularity of John McCain  which is really only limited to New Hampshire and Arizona Republicans.

Romney’s surprising virtual tie with underdog Rick Santorum may have been enough to upset the apple cart for Romney that it did become necessary for McCain to endorse Romney in the days leading up to the New Hampshire primary and in the end it will probably will have at most, a minimal benefit for Romney come primary night.

However, some of the drawbacks to a McCain endorsement that we noted back in December, were immediately highlighted by the mainstream media in the wake of the anticipated endorsement.  The main criticism was the hypocrisy involved in what is an ironic flip-flop for Romney by McCain.

At the time, White House 2012 even produced a video documenting the hypocrisy with clips that offer some of the reasons why Romney should not want an endorsement from McCain and why McCain shouldn’t want to endorse Romney.

Ultimately, the McCain endorsement will probably not help Romney much.  Romney should be winning New Hampshire primary regardless of what McCain did.  But there is an underlying risk that Romney takes by receiving John McCain’s seal of approval.  As the perceived moderate, establishment Republican, the approval of another perceived moderate, establishment Republican does little more than reinforce what is an image problem for Romney in this anti-establishment atmosphere.

To put it another way, given the existing mood in the Republican Party, whose endorsement would you rather have……..John McCain’s or Sarah Palin’s.  In my humble opinion, I think the Mama Grizzly would be far more beneficial than the G.O.P.’s establishment, liberal “Maverick”.

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