A Close Look at Newt Gingrich’s Landlside Victory in South Carolina

Bookmark and Share   Newt Gingrich’s victory in South Carolina was nothing less than astonishing and while it marked Newt’s second return to life during this election cycle, it hardly makes the race for the Republican presidential nomination any clearer than it was after the two previous state contests.  What it did do though was make clear that Mitt Romney has some big problems.  So does Gingrich, but Newt’s problem seems to be more with the general electorate than the Republican electorate.

Final Results for the South Carolina Republican Presidential Primary

According to a breakdown of the votes which produced an impressive 12% lead over Mitt Romney, the rival to come closest to him, in addition to so far winning 23 of the 25 delegates from the state, Newt won almost every single Republican demographic in the state.  He defeated all the other candidates among just about every voting bloc.  He took a majority of the vote among women, men, urban voters, suburban voters, voters with high school level educations and college educations, voters of all income brackets, and he even won a majority of votes among those who describe themselves not just as conservative Republicans, but even among those who describe themselves liberal Republicans.  However; Romney did beat Gingrich among self described moderates with 36% of them for Mitt,  to 31% for Newt.

Gingrich not only won a plurality of evangelical Christians, he won Catholics and Protestants, as well as both married and single voters.

The only demographics that Newt did lose were those between the ages of 18 and 29, and  those who said that a candidates religion either mattered very little in their choice of candidate, or not at all.

Ron Paul won the 18 to 29 year old age group with 32% of their vote, to 27% of their vote for Gingrich.  As seen in the table below, that 5% margin between Newt and Ron Paul tightens up in the older half of that age bracket, where 25 to 29 year olds gave Ron Paul 31% of the vote and Newt Gingrich 29% of their vote.

As for those who find little or no importance in a candidate’s sharing similar religious beliefs with them, Mitt Romney beats Gingrich by anywhere from 3 to 10%, as seen below;

The only real significance that can be found within those numbers have less to do with Romney and Gingrich, and more to do with Rick Santorum.

Last week, 150 national evangelical leaders gathered in Texas and decided to endorse Rick Santorum.  Their hope was to essentially unite the evangelical vote behind one of Mitt’s Romney’s rivals in an attempt to deny Romney the ability to win the nomination.  As I predicted at the time, the move did not work.  Clearly, evangelical voters said those 150 religious leaders can do what they want, because they were going to do their own thing.  In this case, they went for Newt, not Santorum.  As I stated at the time, those evangelical leaders did more harm to their cause than good. In addition to looking unorganized, they now look powerless and have diminished the amount of clout that their future endorsements may carry.

Meanwhile, while Ron Paul narrowly defeated Gingrich among the younest voters, who accounted for 9% of the total vote in South Carolina, he quite surprisingly lost two groups that he desperatley needed for a strong showing.

One of those groups were Independents.

South Carolina’s open primary system allows Independents to vote in the Republican primary.  This was the case in  Iowa and New Hampshire too, and in both those states, Independent voters were in fact the main reason Ron Paul did as well as he did in those states.  I have often stated, if left up to Republicans, Ron Paul is nothing but a second tier candidate and exit polls in South Carolina supported that conclusion.  But in addition to receiving the least support from Republicans, Ron Paul also lost the Independent vote. And not just to Newt Gingrich, but to Mitt Romney as well.

Among Independents, Gingrich beat Paul by 7%, and Mitt Romney beat Paul by 1%.

Another big defeat for Ron Paul was his loss of the military vote.

Ron Paul prides himself on a statistic which he uses to claim that he receives more support from our military service members, than any other candidate.  Paul likes to make this claim because he believes that his statistic regarding fundraising from servicemen and women, provides him cover for his reckless and dangerous isolationist foreign and national defense policies.  The suggestion is that if the military supports him more than any other candidate, they must like his defense and foreign policies and therefore, they are good policies.

If such were really the case though, South Carolina would be extremely fertile territory for Ron Paul to pull off an electoral coup in.  With several substantial military installations in the state, South Carolina has one of the largest active duty and veteran populations in the nation.  Between that and the state’s open primary system which allows Independents and even Democrats to vote in the Republican primary, if Ron Paul could win any state, South Carolina is that one.  But in addition to losing the Independent vote, Ron Paul also lost the military vote.  And not just by a little and not just to Newt Gingrich.  He lost to Rick Santorum by 4%, Mitt Romney by 20%, and Newt Gingrich by a whopping 27%.

In general, while the results were incredibly good for Newt in South Carolina, they were actually very embarrassing for Ron Paul.

All in all, these numbers help to establish that Newt Gingrich is most certainly a serious threat to Mitt Romney.

While South Carolina is not a the most accurate example of national consensus, it is a relatively good representative picture of national Republican sentiments and an even better predictor of Republican presidential nominees.  But if nothing else, it is a an excellent indicator of how tough it may be for Romney to survive the Southern primaries.

Florida will be the real test for both Romney and Gingrich though.

If there is any Southern state which Romney has an excellent chance of winning, it is Florida.

Florida, may be very Republican, and very conservative, but it has a significant Jewish population. The largest Jewish population in all the South.  That voting bloc tends to be more moderate and liberal, and therefore perfect prospective supporters of Mitt Romney, the man Newt describes as a “Massachusetts moderate”.   In the general election, this Jewish vote in Florida will be critical to winning the state and the presidency, and if recent history is any indication, they may easily be persuaded to vote Republicans, or at least against President Obama.

Several months ago, in a special election to replace disgraced New York liberal Congressman Anthony Weiner, a Republican won that heavily heavily Jewish congressional seat which crosses New York City’s counties of Brooklyn and Queens.  It is a district which has been in Democrat hands for practically a hundred years, yet thanks to a Jewish vote that is very unhappy with President Obama and his policies with Israel and his horrible treatment of Israeli Prime Minster Benjamin Netanyahu, Jewish voters elected a relatively conservative, Republican to replace Anthony Weiner.

This all means that the Jewish vote will be quite important and in Florida, it could make the difference between winning and losing in the primary between Mitt and Newt, and winning and losing in the general election between President Obama and whoever the eventual Republican presidential nominee is.

If Newt were smart, he would be headed for Florida right now and direct his campaign operatives to focus in on the Jewish vote and accentuate what is Newt’s very real, very pro-Israel policy record.  As Speaker of the House, Newt accumulated an extremely powerful and very lengthy, positive record on Israel, and that record could provide the margin of victory for Newt over Mitt in Florida.

If Newt can prevent Mitt Romney from winning Florida, he will have a better than 50-50 chance at becoming the Republican nominee. The numbers behind the numbers  in South Carolina, support that.  But in order for Newt to reach those odds, he will have to undermine Romney’s strengths in the Sunshine State.  One of them is money.  Another is organization, and the other is the moderate and liberal element of the Republican Party.  Newt will have the support of conservatives and evangelicals, so long as he does not start attacking from the left again.  All he needs is to win over enough of the moderates to prevent Mitt from getting another Santorum-like 34 vote victory and his uphill battle for the big prize will get a lot less steeper.

For a more comprehensive look at the numbers behind the final election numbers you can visit here .

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Real Time South Carolina Republican Presidential Primary Results

Final Election results of the South Carolina Republican Presidential Primary

Newt Gingrich Wins South Carolina and Becomes the Undisputed Alternative to Mitt Romney

Bookmark and Share  In what can only be seen as a setback for Mitt Romney, former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich upended the political world with a significant victory in the first in South Republican Presidential Primary.

Despite bad weather in the interior sections of the state which contained some of the most favorable territory for Gingrich, the Georgia Republican overcame a massive, well financed, campaign effort for Mitt Romney that was led by South Carolina’s own Governor, Nikki Haley and upset the perceived frontrunner for the nomination and has gone a long way in establishing himself as the long sought after, undisputed conservative to Mitt Romney.

Early exit polls indicate that Gingrich did surprises well among most all demographics, including women, an important and significant voting bloc which many felt would be problematic for Newt because of  two divorces and a history of marital indefinite.  This problem was compounded by a recent ABC Nightline News interview with Gingrich’s second wife Marianne Gingrich

One factor that cannot be ignored here is that these results were influenced not just by Republicans.  South Carolina has an open primary, which means that Independents can vote in the Republican nomination contest.  By all rights, such open primaries benefit Ron Paul’s more than any of the others.  Those Independent voters were largely responsible for the numbers that helped Ron Paul a third place finish in Iowa and a second place showing in New Hampshire.

Clearly, they did not boost Ron Paul’s fortunes in South Carolina but if they went to Newt and helped form his winning coalition in the palmetto State, it could be a sign that Newt may be a much better general election candidate than some have suggested to this point.

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The Complete ABC News Interview With Marianne Gingrich. Just What Newt Needed

 Bookmark and Share   Thursday night’s ABC News hit piece on former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich has proven to be a blessing in disguise for his presidential ambitions [see the complete interview below this post]. While it may have stirred the pot, the truth is that if you disliked Newt Gingrich before you saw the interview, you will continue to find reason to dislike him.  And if you liked Newt or were at least open to his leadership direction prior to the interview with his ex-wife, you still like him and are still open to the prospect of his becoming President of the United States.

In other words, the interview that Marianne Gingrich and ABC News conducted in what Marianne admitted was an attempt to derail Newt’s campaign, did nothing to affect people’s opinion of him.  Recent polls would seem to bear that out.  But in another sense, the blatant malicious intent behind Marianne Gingrich and the unethical assault on Newt by ABC News did provide Newt with an opportunity.  An opportunity to successfully rally conservatives together in another widespread denunciation of the liberal media and their obvious liberal biases.  And few candidates have been able to do that better or more often than Newt Gingrich has.  Throughout the nearly 20 debates that the G.O.P. presidential candidates have particpated in, at least a third of all his extraordinary success in those debates is directly related to his ability to prove the media elites to be partisan hacks for the liberal establishment and essentially corporate satellites for the D.N.C.

Between the the timing of the ABC interview and the fact that everything Marianne stated was literally old news that she repeated in the same script she read to Esquire Magazine 10 years ago, not only was this Nightline interview not news, it was also totally unbalanced.

In a court of law, the testimony provided Marianne in her exchange with Brian Ross would have been considered tainted and the unreliable word of a hostile witness.  However; the court of public opinion is far less fair than a court of laws where ethics and rules are followed.  In the court of public opinion, the domain of ABC News, Newt Gingrich did not have an opportunity to cross-examine the witness.  In ABC News’ circus-like, court of public opinion Marianne Gingrich was not pressed to prove her accusations.  She was not asked to show evidence that proved she was telling the truth that she allegedly knew Newt would call her at night while lying with Callista, his eventual wife-to-be,  in the  bed of the Washington, D.C. apartment that Marianne and Newt called home.  But what does the truth have to do with news and journalism?

Ultimately, more people are realizing that not only is Marianne Gingrich an unrelaible character witness, more and more they seeing that the mainstream media is an unreliable source of actual facts and news.  They are seeing that networks like ABC are not even pretending to be non-partisan anymore and that when it comes to double standards regarding liberals and conservatives, the mainstream media is overloaded.  They see how while the deathbed cheating on Elizabeth Edwards by former Al Gore running mate and liberal North Carolina Senator John Edwards, was an  indisputable scandal because it involved a misuse of campaign funds that broke the law, there was not nearly as much attention paid to that breech of conduct and public trust as there is to what is nothing but a personal matter between Gingrich and his ex-wife.

Of course though, the left will accuse the right of having the double standard.

As ABC News reported in the Marianne Gingrich piece, the affair that Newt was having with Callista occurred at the same time Newt was leading the impeachment charge against President Bill Clinton during the Monica Lewisnky affair.  The problem is that when you compare apples to oranges, all you have are two different items.  In this case, you have two different issues.  The Clinton impeachment had little to do with B.J. Clinton’s extramarital affair with a White House intern.  Liberals would like you to believe that, but the fact is that issue was not his semen stains on an interns blue dress, it was the fact that the Commander-in-Chief lied under oath to a grand jury.  The semen stains were merely evidence that proved the President was guilty of committing perjury.  That is a little something called a crime.  And according to the Constitution of the United States, certain crimes are impeachable.  Did anyone ever hear of Richard Nixon?

The whole Lewinsky impeachment debate  had little to do with what President Clinton lied about and everything to do with the fact that he lied and broke the oath he swore when giving his testimony involving the Whitewater investigation, and his presidential oath of office…….you know, the oaths in which you swear to tell the truth and nothing but the truth, and swear to uphold the Constitution of the United States.

Newt Gingrich was not on trial for breaking any laws and Marianne Gingrich was not sworn to tell the truth when she took ABC News up on the opportunity to exact revenge on her ex-husband.

Personally, for me, the whole episode did nothing but confirm thatof the mainstream media is sleazy and lacks integrity.

But it did also force me to question one thing about Newt Gingrich.  After seeing the frumpy, shrew-like, vindictive Marianne Gingrich in action, I couldn’t help but wonder what poor taste Newt had in the past.  What he saw in Marianne Gingrich, I will never know, but after listening to her, I can only  thank the good Lord that Newt came to his senses and gave that bitter Biddy what she deserved.

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Romney Makes Final Pitch to South Carolinians

Bookmark and Share    As the polls now place Newt Gingrich back ahead of Mitt Romney in South Carolina, Romney is making a final push to help avoid a second place finish that will do nothing but help narrow the election down to what will realistically amount to a two man race for the Republican presidential nomination.

Much of the last minute push consists of a heavy dose of last minute campaigning with the latest big name to endorse him, Virginia Governor Bob McDonnell and he continues to hit the trail with the Palmetto State’s Governor, Nikki Haley.

Below you will find  Romney’s most recent video pitch to South Carolinians.

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Virginia Governor Bob McDonnell Endorses Mitt Romney

Bookmark and Share   Early this morning, Virginia Governor Bob McDonnell who once declared that he would not be endorsing a candidate in the Republican presidential contest has seemingly reversed course and thrown his considerable clout behind Mitt Romney for President.

McDonnell called Romney a “results-oriented conservative” who can appeal to Democrats and independents and he told CNBC that his message is that if you want to win the race in November, vote for Mitt Romney.

On Fox News, Governor McDonnell stated that Romney has a proven record in the public and private sector of getting things done and argued that there are only three issues that will really matter in the election………. one being job creation, another being the need to get rid of “this crushing national debt” and finally, leadership.  And it is on those issues that McDonnell says Romney can win.

While McDonnell’s support has some value, the most interesting aspect of the endorsement is the timing.  It comes one day before what could be a game changing result in the South Carolina Primary.  It is pretty clear that the Romney camp, which has mastered much of the art of political campaigning, has begun to sweat and so they decided now was the time to unleash the endorsement of the popular Southern Governor in the hopes that it will help stem the perceived surge that Newt Gingrich is riding as the race in South Carolina wraps up.

In case you haven’t heard, timing is everything and its not any different in politics.

If you recall, back in December, Newt Gingrich flew to the front of the then crowded G.O.P. field.  The problem was timing.  He peeked too early and in the two weeks leading up to the Iowa Caucuses, he saw that rapid rise to the top erode and ceded ground to Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum.  This time, in South Carolina, thanks to Newt’s ability to catch the crest of his wave at just the right moment, combined with a few well timed breezes at his back which consisted of Sarah Palin’s quasi-endorsement, Rick Perry’s suspension of his own campaign and endorsement of Newt’s, and two well executed debate performances, Gingrich looks like he is peaking just in time to be the first one to ride his wave across the Palmetto State finish line.   All of these conditions which have been beyond Romney’s control have forced him to play some cards that he has been holding close.  In this case, it is obvious that Gingrich’s success has Romney sweating enough to have forced his hand and play the McDonnell card.

How much it will help is questionable.

McDonnell promises to spend the closing hours of the campaign stomping in South Carolina, but Mitt already has the personal and organizational support of South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley and the insularly access to support from the state Party apparatus that comes with her.  And at the moment it is not stopping Gingrich from pulling ahead in the latest polls.

In my own estimation, I have concluded that even though McDonnell is a rising conservative star and a positive name to have your on side, in the case of Mitt Romney, McDonnell’s endorsement will actually benefit Newt Gingrich more than Mitt.  As the perceived “establishment” candidate, getting the endorsement of another elected  “establishment” politician, will help urge still undecided voters from among the large anti-establishment voting bloc, to move more Newt’s way than Mitt’s way.

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President Obama’s First Reelection Ad Raises a Question. How Dumb Does He Think We Are?

   Bookmark and Share    As he works hard to the raise the money to wage the first billion dollar presidential campaign in history, the Fundraiser-in Chief has already launched the first television ads of his reelection campaign [see ad below].  In it, Billion Buck Barry claims everyone is lying about him and that he has ruled over the most ethical presidential Administration Americans have ever known.   To support his point, the President’s reelection team tries to validate their pitch by using quotes from ABC News and Common Cause, two of the most prolific purveyors of liberal propaganda that those with an axe to grind and leftwing agenda to promote could ever find.

According to President Obama’s political gurus, Americans are suppose to believe that ABC News is a reliable source of “fact checkers” and that Common Cause is a non-partisan judge of fairness and honesty.

This is the same ABC News…….keyword being “news”………. which decided that regurgitating a 2010 Esquire Magazine interview with the disgruntled ex-wife of Speaker Newt Gingrich, two days before a critical primary election, was newsworthy.

This is the same Common Cause which is led by Bob Edgar, a former 6 term liberal Pennsylvania Democrat Congressman, Robert Reich, the former Clinton Labor Secretary who is now a leftwing professor at the University of California at Berkeley, and others like Ric Bainter, a one time liberal Democrat candidate for Secretary of State in Colorado, and other more prominent figures from the liberal elite of Hollywood like Richard Dreyfuss.

Unless you live under rock or spend most of your time standing in line to gain entry in to a Lady Gaga concert or Dennis Kucinich fundraiser, I am not sure how serious one can take the word of ABC News and Common Cause and how they can be viewed as credible guarantors of truth and facts, but that is what the Obama reelection team hopes.

And if that wasn’t bad enough, the ad uses the remaining fifteen seconds to convince us that President Obama is one of the most successful managers of America’s energy future.

At one point, the very serious sounding voice narrating this fairytale, claims that President Obama for the first time in 13 years, America’s consumption of foreign oil is below the 50% mark.

That may sound attractive, but what the narration does not disclose is the reason we are consuming less foreign oil is because President Obama has successfully sustained the longest running economic downturns since the Great Depression.  And as a result, with rising prices,  less jobs, and less money available to consumers, Americans are consuming less energy.  Afterall, when President Obama came in to office, gasoline was $1.89 a gallon.  Now, almost four years later, that same gallon of gas costs nearly twice as much.  The reason we are using 50% less foreign oil is simply because our economy is practically 50% as strong as strong as it once was.

To make matters worse, the ad tries to credit President Obama with orchestarting a so-called energy policy that has created 2.7 million jobs.  However the facts show that under President Obama, the nation has had a net loss of just a touch over  2 million jobs and that does not factor in the lack of jobs that still exists for the more than 3 million people who came of age and increased the size of the eligible working population.  Nor does it include the six million people who have exhausted their unemployment benefits and dropped out of the working force…….the people who have simply given up and are not factored in to the jobless rate.  Check those facts out, then add them up and  tell me that President Obama created more jobs than he lost since taking office.

But wait!

It all gets worse.

In addition to this ad using the lies of reliably biased liberal front groups and hacks, the Obama reelection team decided to release it one day after the President told our Canadian allies that creating real jobs by allowing the Keystone Pipeline project to proceed so that we could tap in to domestic energy sources, was a bad idea and therefore we will not allow it to move forward.

Just one day after Barack Obama caters to his radical environmentalist political donors and refuses to pursue a policy that kills two birds with one stone by creating jobs and achieving a real degree of energy independence, he runs an ad claiming that he has created jobs and made us less reliant upon foreign oil. Which brings me to my original question.

How dumb does he think we are?

Between the emerging Solyndra scandal, and the Keystone decision, this ad almost seems to be a Saturday Night Live skit.  Yet the President and his people are serious.  They clearly expect a segment of voters to believe his wild claims and outright lies.  They truly believe that people will fall for the ads opening claim that “secretive oil billionaires” are plotting against the President as if we were watching some poorly done episode of Batman with evil villains plotting a takeover of Gotham City by framing the mayor and finally giving The Joker with his chance to begin taking over the world.

Which brings us to another issue the ad neglects to mention.

Was it not President Obama who received a million dollar donation to his presidential campaign from BP, before he gave the Deepwater Horizon oil rig a safety award, and exempted them from certain safety regulations right before that same rig exploded and spent that , “Summer of Recovery” spewing enough oil in to the Gulf of Mexico to create our nation’s greatest environmental disaster?  So who is President Obama kidding?  He has much blood, or in this case oil, on his hands as the next politician who is getting their own palms greased by big oil.

Between the President’s history and his first reelection ad, I am not sure exactly how dumb he thinks we are, but it is quite apparent that he is hoping we are dumber than the people he has filled his Cabinet with.  I also know that when it comes to the two things President Obama tries to address in this commercial, jobs and energy, they are the two issues which he is most vulnerable on and if this is his way of trying to inoculate himself from attacks on those issues, than he just lost the election.

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