New Polling May Indicate That Gingrich Peaked Too Early and that Romney is the Consistent Candidate

Bookmark and Share   Some recent state polls in Iowa and News Hampshire offer mixed results for Newt Gingrich, encouraging news for Jon Huntsman, and great news for Mitt Romney.

A new Rasmussen Iowa 2012 GOP Caucus Poll  shows Mitt Romney slipping in to the lead in  Iowa, a state where he has been consistently in the top two but rarely in the number one spot.  Iowa has also been considered a relatively weak state for Romney and he has only recently begun to focus any attention on it.

In that Rasmussen Poll, Romney has gained 4% points since last month, but Newt Gingrich dropped 12% since November, and Ron Paul jumped up 8 percentage points during that same time frame.

1. Mitt Romney 23% (19%)
2. Newt Gingrich 20% (32%)
3. Ron Paul 18% (10%)
4. Rick Perry 10% (6%)
5. Michele Bachmann 9% (6%)
6. Rick Santorum 6% (5%)
7. Jon Huntsman 5% (2%)

These results would seem to indicate that the onslaught of negative attacks on Newt Gingrich from both the left and the right have taken their toll on his meteoric rise to the top of the field and that he possibly peaked too early.  Quite interestingly, Newt was the only candidate to have lost support in Iowa between this month and last.  Everyone else increased their numbers to one degree to another.  The rise of those candidates accounted for a shift of 23%, nearly twice the amount of support that Gingrich lost during  that same time period.   That means that undecided voters are not flocking to any one specific candidate and it is not quite clear who former Newt supporters are bolting  to.  The obvious choice may be Ron Paul, but if you add the rise in the poll of Perry, Bachmann, Santorum, and Huntsman, what you come up with is an 11% shift that could account for where most of Newt’s 12% went.  From all of this, the only thing one can assume  is that a significant portion of Iowa Republicans are still in a state of flux when it comes to who they want to be the Republican nominee and are changing their minds often.  However, Ron Paul clearly has the momentum behind him in Iowa as we go in to the final days prior to the caucus.

Another important thing to note here is how tight the race has now become between the top three candidates.

A tight race in Iowa between Romney, Gingrich, and Paul, would tend to be very bad news for Gingrich.

In close elections, organization tends to be a decisive factor in the final results.  The candidate with the largest and most coordinated organizational ground game, tends to get their people to the polls, or in this the case, the right caucus location, in far greater numbers than the candidate with a lack of organization.  Newt has a very poor organization in Iowa.  However Ron Paul and Mitt Romney have Get Out the Vote operations that are being manned by, in Ron Paul’s case, aggressive, dedicated supporters, who are passionate about their support for Ron Paul, and in Romney’s case, are manned by experienced, well financed, well organized ,staffers and volunteers.  It should also be noted that Michele Bachmann is another candidate with a sharp organization in Iowa.

All of this means that Newt is now less likely to pull off a first place finish in Iowa.  It also means that Mitt Romney may finally be coalescing support based on the electability argument and ultimately proving that among Republicans, the consistency of his candidacy in regards to the polls is becoming more important than his consistency as a conservative.

In New Hampshire a new poll again shows Mitt Romney remaining consistent in his placement on top.

A Suffolk University/7NEWS New Hampshire 2012 GOP Nomination Poll found the following results:

  1. Mitt Romney 38% (41%)
  2. Newt Gingrich 20% (14%)
  3. Jon Huntsman 13% (9%)
  4. Ron Paul 8% (14%)
  5. Michele Bachmann 3% (1%)
  6. Rick Santorum 2% (3%)
  7. Buddy Roemer 2% (1%)
  8. Rick Perry 1% (2%)
  9. Gary Johnson 1% (0%)
  10. Fred Karger 0% (1%)
  11. Undecided 11% (9%)

Here, while Romney lost 3% since the previous month, he still maintains a large double digit lead over all his rivals.  However Newt has picked up 6% and would seem to have some momentum in New Hampshire.  At the same time, John Huntsman is making decent gains and Ron Paul lost 6% of his support.

This is all good news for Romney.  A loss in New Hampshire would essentially hobble his campaign and at this point in time, that does seem likely.  But it could easily change if Romney fails to finish well in Iowa.  Anything less than a third place finish there could have an impact on New Hampshire.   But as we see, the Rasmussen poll would seem to indicate that anything less than a third place finish in Iowa for Romney is unlikely.

As for Jon Huntsman, he has pinned his entire campaign on New Hampshire and the outside chance of beating Romney there.  He is hoping to  play David to Romney’s Goliath and then ride a shockwave to victories in South Carolina and Florida.  But his gains in the Suffolk University would seem to be like President Obama’s monthly jobs numbers, his increasing numbers of are not growing at a pace fast enough to do the job.

Overall, while these numbers remain quite fluid, they do offer us a glimpse of current trends, trends which are quickly turning into final results and which makes tonight’s Fox News debate more important with each approaching hour.  Personally while, Romney may not win Iowa, he will do better than expected and I suspect that he is still the likely Republican presidential nominee.  While I am rooting for Newt, all indications lead me to maintainmy long held belief that Romney is the candidate with the greatest endurance, organization, and in the best position.

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White House 2012 Poll Shows Romney and Cain to be the Most Polarizing Candidates

Bookmark and Share  White House 2012 asked readers to tell us which Republican presidential candidate they can least support.   Although the results are far from scientific and conclusive, they do give us an indication of the level of intensity which this blogs demographic, the more conservative element of the GOP,  have when it comes to their distrust and dislike of the various candidates.

And the results are interesting.  Excluding those who are considered bottom tier candidates, the ones who seemingly are of no consequence in the race at this point in time, this poll shows that there are as many people disliking the top tier candidates, as there are who like them. 

Where Mitt Romney and Herman Cain are currently seen as the frontrunners in many polls, this survey regarding the candidate that people can least support, also has Romney and Cain at the top.  This would verify that while Romney is a polarizing figure among conservatives, and that Herman Cain is becoming one. 

Apparently, while the Republican establishment and moderate Republicans are willing to support Romney, almost as many conservatives are not willing to support him.  If Romney does become the Republican nominee, this all means that he is going to have to convince the far right and those in the TEA movement, that he is a committed conservative and that he is not a status quo politician.  As I have I indicated in the past, Romney could have demonstrated some outside of the box, reform minded, anti-establishment thinking, had he been willing to be bold and propos a flat tax.  Instead he proposed a 59 point plan, that tinkers with the broken system.  Meanwhile people don’t even want the broken system fixed.  They want it totally dismantled and have a new, simpler, fairer tax code created in its place. 

If Mitt becomes the nominee, he will have his work cut out for him.  But he can do it. 

A well run campaign can do wonders.  The right approach can turn  a guy you don’t like one minute, into a hero, the next.  And the truth is, Romney has an incredible wealth of success to build a great campaign on. 

In the case of  Herman Cain, I believe his second place showing in the poll of who readers can least support, is due in large part to his initial mishandling of the sexual harassment accusations that he was broadsided with two weeks ago.  The incident may not be enough to derail the Cain train, but it has been a set back that seems to have increased the number of people who do not look upon him kindly.

The person who perhaps did the best in this poll, was Newt Gingrich.

He has always been a polarizing figure, and he will continue to be one to a certain extent.  However while his poll numbers have been going up, his negatives seem to be going down.   As far as this poll goes he came in 6th with a mere 6.08% of readers considering him the last Republican they could support for President.  That means that Newt could actually be less a polarizing figure for the G.O.P. than Mitt Romney.  It shows that it might be easier to get the Party to unite behind Gingrich, than it will for them to get behind Mitt.

As for the 7th, 8th, 9th, 10th and 11th finishers, they are candidates which most readers did not even consider, because for all intent and purpose Santorum, Huntsman, Fred Karger, Gary Johnson, and most especially Buddy “Occupy Wall Street” Roemer, are not much of factor in the race.  Out of all those men, Rick Santorum has a shot of breaking out of this bottom tier.  But it will not happen until and unless he raises money.  Without it, Santorum is not going anywhere anytime soon.

With the results of last week’s poll out, and analyzed, White House 2012 offers a new poll.

This week we ask “What are the chances of there being a significant third Party candidate in the 2012 presidential election?

What do you think are the chances of another Theodore Roosevelt Bullmoose-like candidate entering the fray?  Or how about another Eugene Debs-like socialist?  Do you think another Perot or John Anderson could show up on the ballot? 

Let us know what you think,.  Click here to vote now.

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White House 2012: Which Republican Presidential Candidate Can You Least Support?

  Bookmark and Share    While the most popular question pertaining to the Republican presidential nomination undoubtedly asks which candidate do you support for President, this week, White House 2012 asks readers which candidate they can least support?

Last week, White House 2012 asked readers how well they thought Herman Cain handled the news about accusations of sexual harassment back in the 90’s.

In that poll 37% believed that Cain mishandled the story while an equal number of voters believed that how he handled the episode did not matter because the mainstream media was not going to give him a fair chance anyway.

To take this week’s poll click here.  Let us know which candidate you think is least deserving of the Republican presidential nomination.

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New Hampshire Straw Poll Puts Candidate Karger in First Place

Bookmark and ShareThis past Thursday evening first time presidential candidate, Fred Karger won the St. Anselm College Republican Straw Poll. College Republican President Brock Weber announced the results to a room full of participants at the famous New Hampshire Institute of Politics after voting ended at 9:00 pm. The straw poll was conducted all week on the campus of this conservative Catholic College located in New Hampshire’s largest city.

Karger was the only presidential candidate or potential presidential candidate to have addressed the gathering but his win was still a surprise and an indication of just how little a lock anyone has on the nomination at this stage in the game. Of course this straw poll is not neccessarily a good indication of the opinion of New Hampshire voters. The pool of voters in this poll were of a specific age group and many students attending the college from other states, are not even eligible to vote in New Hampshire. But a win is a win and in this case it was a pretty significant one for Fred Karger.

The final results were as follows:

  • Fred Karger, 79 Votes
  • Mitt Romney, 74 Votes
  • Donald Trump, 26 Votes
  • Tim Pawlenty, 24 Votes
  • Ron Paul, 24 Votes
  • Rudy Giuliani, 22 Votes
  • Rick Santorum, 20 Votes
  • Sarah Palin, 9 Votes
  • Herman Cain, 8 Votes
  • Gary Johnson, 8 Votes
  • Mike Huckabee, 8 votes
  • Newt Gingrich, 7 Votes
  • Haley Barbour, 3 Votes
  • Mitch Daniels, 2 Votes
  • John Bolton, 1 Vote
  • Rand Paul, 1 Vote
  • Other, 6 Votes

Although all straw polls are little more than beauty contests, a win like this for a virtual unknown can help boost his name ID and increase the viability of Karger’s candidacy as time goes by. It will also help his case when it comes to being included in future Republican presidential debates.

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White House 2012 Monthy Ranking of Republican Presidential Contenders

Bookmark and Share The White House 2012 ranking of possibe Republican presidential contenders for March is out and while there is much movement around from last month, most of the top tier contneders remain the same as they were in February and the staff of White House 2012 still has Mitt Romney leading in first place.

The White House 2012 ranking is established through a system that takes an average from the placement that the writers at WH2012 put the candidates in. Their placements are acombination of the ground game contenders are playing, their fundraising abilities, name ID, and a mix of individual expectations and prediction.

While theses standings do not reflect the desire of any one White House 2012 writer it is a measure of whereall the variables pace thesepossible candidates among the general Republican electorate at this point in time.

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Romney and Huckabee Strongest Against Obama

Bookmark and Share The result of a Rasmussen daily presidential tracking poll of potential Republican opponents to President Obama, shows that Mitt Romney holds a slight lead over President Obama while Mike Huckabee is even with the President. The Romney lead is well withing the polls margin of error but the numbers that both Huckabee and Romney get are far closer to the President’s than any of the other potential contenders that the poll track.

Rasmussen points out the following little tid bit regarding 2004, the last time thepresidentialelection featured anincumbent running for reelection. They write;

Its interesting to note that Kerry trailed Bush by three points on the night he became the front-runner, and he ended up losing the election by three percentage points. In 2008, Rasmussen tracking polls showed Obama leading McCain consistently by five or six points for the first month after Hillary Clinton bowed out of the race. Obama ended up winning by seven.

Of course, the poll is not exactly an accurate predictor of the 2012 election but it does show us who is, or “isn’t”, getting in to the race with some wind at their back.

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2012 Presidential Polling: Romney and Huckabee Tied in New Jersey

Bookmark and Share Public Policy Polling, a largely Democrat operation, has released New Jersey poll numbers for the evolving field of Republican presidential candidates. The survey of 400 usual Republican primary voters unites the results of several previous independent polls of Iowa and New Hampshire Republican voters which give Huckabee the lead in Iowa and Romney the lead in the Granite State. PPPs New Jersey survey has Huckabee and Romney tied at 18% each. Not too far behind them are Newt Gingrich with 15% and Sarah Palin with 14%.

The poll proves that the early energy and buzz is behind the former Massachusetts governor and former Arkansas governor but it also demonstrates that neither have a firm hold on that energy as many voters are still interested in other prospects.

A further breakdown of the poll provides Mitt Romney with additional evidence of his biggest reason for not being the clear frontrunner for the 2012 Republican nomination is his inability to consolidate the trust and support of conservatives, the G.O.P.s base. Among those New Jersey Republicans polled who consider themselves conservative, Romney finds himself with a 64% favorable to 19% unfavorable rating, a net positive of 45%. But Mike Huckabee has a net positive favorable of 58 with 70% having a favorable opinion of him and only 12% having an unfavorable opinion. Adding to the bad news for Romney among the base of the Party is the fact that both former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich and former Republican Vice Presidential nominee and Alaska Governor Sarah Palin also have better favorable ratings among conservatives than Romney.

Romneys favorable ratings as they relate to Huckabee, Gingrich and Palin, come from New Jersey Republicans who describe themselves as moderates.

These results come on the heels of a dinner meeting that New Jersey Governor Chris Christie had with Mitt Romney on Monday evening at Drumthwacket, the New Jersey Governors Mansion which Chris Chritie has chosen not to live in, but is used by the Governor for offical events.

New Jerseys Republican presidential primary will take place in March and it is a winner-take-all contest that sends 50 delegates to the Republican National Convention.

See the complete results and breakdown below:

  1. Mike Huckabee / Mitt Romney 18%
  2. Newt Gingrich 15%
  3. Sarah Palin 14%
  4. Ron Paul 8%
  5. Tim Pawlenty 4%
  6. Mitch Daniels 3%
  7. John Thune 2%
  8. Someone else/Undecided 19%

Among Conservatives

  • Mike Huckabee 21%
  • Newt Gingrich 17%
  • Sarah Palin 16%
  • Mitt Romney 14%
  • Ron Paul 5%
  • Tim Pawlenty 5%
  • Mitch Daniels 4%
  • John Thune 2%
  • Someone else/Undecided 16%

Among Moderates

  • Mitt Romney 24%
  • Mike Huckabee 13%
  • Ron Paul 12%
  • Sarah Palin 11%
  • Newt Gingrich 10%
  • Mitch Daniels 2%
  • John Thune 2%
  • Tim Pawlenty 2%
  • Someone else/Undecided 24%

Among Men

  • Mike Huckabee 20%
  • Sarah Palin 18%
  • Mitt Romney 15%
  • Newt Gingrich 14%
  • Ron Paul 9%
  • Tim Pawlenty 4%
  • Mitch Daniels 3%
  • John Thune 2%
  • Someone else/Undecided 16%

Among Women

  • Mitt Romney 23%
  • Newt Gingrich 16%
  • Mike Huckabee 16%
  • Sarah Palin 9%
  • Ron Paul 6%
  • Mitch Daniels 3%
  • Tim Pawlenty 3%
  • John Thune 2%
  • Someone else/Undecided 22%

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

  • Mike Huckabee 61% / 17% {+44%}
  • Mitt Romney 60% / 20% {+40%}
  • Newt Gingrich 54% / 25% {+29%}
  • Sarah Palin 58% / 33% {+25%}

Among Conservatives

  • Mike Huckabee 70% / 12% {+58%}
  • Newt Gingrich 68% / 15% {+53%}
  • Sarah Palin 72% / 21% {+51%}
  • Mitt Romney 64% / 19% {+45%}
Among Moderates
  • Mitt Romney 53% / 21% {+32%}
  • Mike Huckabee 47% / 24% {+23%}
  • Newt Gingrich 34% / 37% {-3%}
  • Sarah Palin 38% / 48% {-10%}
Among Men
  • Mike Huckabee 61% / 22% {+39%}
  • Mitt Romney 60% / 25% {+35%}
  • Sarah Palin 62% / 29% {+33%}
  • Newt Gingrich 58% / 25% {+33%}
Among Women
  • Mike Huckabee 61% / 12% {+49%}
  • Mitt Romney 61% / 14% {+47%}
  • Newt Gingrich 49% / 24% {+25%}
  • Sarah Palin 53% / 37% {+16%}

Survey of 400 usual Republican primary voters was conducted January 6-9, 2011. The margin of error is +/- 4.9 percentage points. Political ideology: 60% Conservative; 38% Moderate; 2% Liberal.

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New Polls in Iowa and New Hampshire Make Nothing Very Clear

Bookmark and Share Two new Strategic National polls offer results from Iowa and New Hampshire that mirror other similar surveys.

Of 410 Iowans who are described as typical caucus voters, former Governor Mike Huckabee is ahead of his closest possible rival, Mitt Romney, by 9.02%.

Complete poll results were as follows:

  1. Mike Huckabee 27.56%
  2. Mitt Romney 18.54%
  3. Undecided 17.56%
  4. Sarah Palin 12.44%
  5. Newt Gingrich 12.20%
  6. Tim Pawlenty 4.39%
  7. Michele Bachmann 3.66%
  8. John Thune 1.95%
  9. Rick Santorum 0.98%
  10. Other/Undecided 0.49%
  11. Haley Barbour 0.24%

In New Hampshire a random sample of 940 Republican primary voters offered a result that was almost as equally lopsided between the first and second place finishers as Iowa’s results were, but here it is Romney who takes the lead. The New Hampshire poll played out like this:

  1. Mitt Romney 33.51%
  2. Mike Huckabee 13.83%
  3. Sarah Palin 12.77%
  4. Newt Gingrich 8.62%
  5. Tim Pawlenty 5.21%
  6. Mitch Daniels 1.60%
  7. Rick Santorum 1.28%
  8. Haley Barbour 0.96%
  9. John Thune 0.21%
  10. Other/Undecided 22.02%

Both polls do little more than confirm what we already knew. What we don’t know though is who Iowa and New Hampshire voters will actually be splitting their votes between when it is time to vote and caucus. While we are more than certain that Mitt Romney and Tim Pawlenty will be running, and pretty sure people like Fred Karger and Rick Santorum are running, we do not know with any certainty if Mike Huckabee or any of the other often mentioned names are running. Furthermore, given the countless number of variables, including who will or wont be in the race and the great potential that the campaigns of many potential candidates have, it would be naive to assume that anyone who is a frontrunner at this moment, will be the winner a year from now.

However, when it comes to New Hampshire and Iowa and Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee, a combination of name recognition from their 2008 presidential runs and demographics, Romney and Huckabee are where they should be in New Hampshire and Iowa and are naturals to win those state respectively.

If they did win in these tow states, the Republican presidential nomination contest is likely to be wide open well into the primary and caucus season.

Following Iowa and New Hampshire are Nevada and South Carolina. Here too a split decision is as natural as it is in the results of Iowa and New Hampshire. Demographics and established name recognition make Nevada a natural for Romney to win and South Carolina a natural for Huckabee to take. Of course with South Carolina being more of a sign of how the South goes than Nevada is of the way the West goes, Huckabee’s win in South Carolina would put him in a much better position for him than Romney.

South Carolina is where Romney has to draw his wall of fire. It is where he has to establish the “Big Mo” that George H. W. Bush thought he had behind him in the 1980 primaries against Ronald Reagan.

Of course as noted in previous White House 2012 posts, if enough candidates who are attractive to the evangelical vote, jump into the race, Romney could be the beneficiary and have the chance to walk right up the middle.

For now though, it really is too early to base any wagers on any of these polls. None of the potential candidates campaigns can be underestimated and there are so many possible players at the moment that it is too difficult to predict which way any one demographic or state will fall.

If Newt Gingrich were to run, not only will his command of the issues be undeniably impressive, but between the unique and numerous ideas he brings to the table, combined with a personality that will surprise many and the ability to reshape his image, he could quickly become an appealing figure to many, including evangelicals and TEA Party energized people.

If Sarah Palin were to run, her ability to campaign in a way that can broaden her base should not be underestimated and given the enthusiastic support that she already has from a loyal base of voters, such an expansion of her base could effect the primaries and caucuses profoundly.

But many other names also have the potential to establish powerfully effective campaigns that can attract the attention and support of any combination of influential wings of the G.O.P.. Texas Governor Rick Perry is building a solid foundation for a possible campaign that highlights states rights which appeals to TEA Party priorities. He has also built a record around anti-abortion measures and other social issues that are attractive to evangelicals and social conservatives. And on economic issues, his tax cuts, spending cuts and jobs record in the Lone Star State, appeal to all wings of the Republican Party.

Indiana’s Mitch Daniel’s is another figure whom could take the Party by storm. His American Heartland appeal and economic prowess will shine brighter than most. The entry of Mississippi’s Haley Barbour could quickly round up a large portion of the G.O.P. inner circle, raise oodles of money, count on many favors owed to him, significantly coalesce Southern support and dilute Huckabee’s Southern strength, while also surprising people with his own strategic abilities and appeal to conservatives in all four corners of the country.

Senator John Thune of South Dakota will be force to a contend with if he runs. While the addition of his name in to the field may not initially turn the race on its ear, he will quickly gain steam. Then there are other names like Rick Santorum and Mike Pence. All of these names will sharply divide the conservative vote, thereby give people like Tim Pawlenty, as well as Mitt Romney and maybe even Rudy Giuliani a better shot at racking high delegate counts.

And through it all may also be the likes of libertarians Ron Paul and former new Mexico Governor Gary Johnson as well as those dark horse candidates, such as Herman Cain, Michele Bachmann, and maybe even Donald Trump.

Right now, all that we can be sure of is that while some names like Tim Pawlenty, Mitt Romney, Rick Santorum and outsider Fred Karger have all but made their campaigns official, everyone else is watching what each of the other names are doing. And until people like Haley Barbour, Mitch Daniels, John Thune and Sarah Palin, make up their minds, people like Rick Perry, Michele Bachmann, Newt Gingrich, Mike Huckabee, Rudy Giuliani, Jon Huntsman and more, will be waiting to make up their own minds.

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