“Rudy Rules Out a Run for President. Says It’s Too Late For Me”

Giuliani at a campaign event in Derry, New Ham...
Image via Wikipedia

Bookmark and Share   In an announcement that was overshadowed by New Jersey Governor Chris Christie’s endorsement of Mitt Romney for President, former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani announced to an audience in Long Island that he will not for President in 2012.  He added;

“if it’s too late for Chris Christie, it’s too late for me”.

For several months now, Giuliani has stated that he was thinking about making a second run.

He briefly ran a dismal race for the Republican presidential nomination in 2008.  However, despite having exceptional favorable numbers and even leading in many polls, Giuliani’s campaign was a flop.  Much of that was due to the fact that he decided to ignore the earliest state contests and try to make Florida his presidentiaql launching pad.  Rudy wound up in the back field when all was said done.

Rudy never really seemed to be very interested in becoming President.  Ever since he raised the possibility of running in 20012, he treated the idea as an afterthought, not a priority.  To maker matter worse, in what could only have been seen as a dislike for Sarah Pa;in’s conservatism, back in January, Rudy indicated that if Palin ran, he would.  Trying to make sure that someone else does not win, does make one a good a choice to be the leader of free world, yet that is exactly why Rudy considered running.  He just doesn;t like Palin’s politics, so he contemplated becoming a candidate so he could do just that.

So I am glad Rudy won’t be running.  Who needs Rudy when we have Jon Huntsman?

And here is some news for Rudy.  None of us sitting on the edge of seats waiting for your decision.

Bookmark and Share

Trunkline 2012: Friday’s Campaign Trail News – 9/23/11

Bookmark and Share
  • The day after the Fox News/Google Presidnetial Debate.  Complete assessment, transcript and video of the debate
  • Perry on shaky ground? Doubts among some in GOP
  • Perry’s cringe-worthiest debate moment
  • White Knight Watch: “With Gov. Rick Perry’s seeming implosion at last night’s debate, conservatives who desire a Republican nominee not named Mitt Romney seem to be hurting for viable options.”
  • ‘Also-rans’ in GOP race have plenty of reasons to keep running
  • Bachmann unveils new strategies
  • How Saturday’s FL straw poll differs from Ames
  • “What, I’m Funny? What the F is So Funny About Me?!”…Plenty Barry!
  •  The California Republican Party has established their 2012 Delegate Selection plan.
  • And from the “Libs will make this election interesting section”……”Village Voice Critic Calls For Mass Murder of NY Billionaires… To Feed Poor & Pay for Repertory Theater”
Bookmark and Share

Rudy Feels a Sense of Urgency Regarding His Decision to Run for President

Bookmark and Share    Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani is said to be preparing for a second run for theRepublican  presidential nomination.

 Although no one is confirming that a final decision to run has been made , anonymous sources close to Giuliani but unauthorized to speak for him, have indicated that the anticipated announcement of Texas Governor Rick Perry’s presidential candidacy, has the Mayor feeling a sense of urgency in keeping his options open. That urgency stems from a fear that Perry’s entry in to an already crowded field of candidates will make it harder for Giuliani to hire good political talent for his own possible campaign in New Hampshire. It is for that reason that Rudy has been contacting many of New Hampshire’s Republican politicos. Whether any of them have committed themselves to work for Giuliani if he runs is not yet known,

Part of that concern has Wayne Semprini, the man in charge of Rudy’s New Hampshire campaign in 2008, contacting potential staffers in an attempt to assure the Rudy campaign of at least at a few experienced staffers, As for himself, Semprini confirms that the mayor is still considering a run but if Rudy does run , Semprini  will again stand with Rudy .

The only thing that is certain at the moment is the fact that Rudy will not be making any announcement, one way or the other until after the ten year anniversary of the 9/11 terrorist attacks. Rudy does not want to be seen as tying the somber and emotionally charged anniversary to his political ambitions. Back in 2001, Rudy’s presidential prospects began to get quite real in the wake of his masterful handling of the crisis in New York City when he was its Mayor,

It is also said that the Giuliani camp wants to get a feel for how Rick Perry’s candidacy is received and how it shakes up and shapes up the existing field.

In recent months, I have not taken the thought of another Rudy presidential candidacy seriously. In past WH12 articles on the topic, I have even made fun Rudy’s presidential prospects. His last campaign was so poorly planned and managed that I do not believe he really wants the job of President but would instead like to be a political player and would like to either be the vice presidential nominee or be given a cabinet position. Rudy‘s heart is not in to running. If it were, he would have taken Hillary Clintons‘s Senate seat or when she left office he would have taken it from from Kirstin Gillibrand or The Governor‘s mansion from Andrewm, “Son of Mario”, Cuomo. But he didn‘t.  Instead he has consistently thumbed his nose at running for statewide office and sparing us from the likes of Chuck Schumer.  But now we are suddenly suppose to believe that he wants to run for President in all fifity states.? Sorry but I don‘t think so.

That doesn’t mean he won’t do it. He very well might, but mark my words, if he does run, it will not be for his own presidency, it will be for the presidency of the man or woman who he can help cinch the nomination by swinging how ever many delgates Rudy may win, to the candidate that needs them to make it over the top. That arrangement will then make Rudy a kingmaker that will require many people to kiss his ring and beg for some political mercy from him once he gets the position he wants. For Rudy, the way I see it, he wants to either be Vice President or head of the CIA, FBI, Homeland Security or mybe Secretary of State. Of course another dream job for any good Italian boy from Brooklyn and Queens is that of Ambassador to the Holy Sea in Vatican City.

But other than that, I do not see Rudy’s run for President as a sincere effort to win the White House. Having worked for Rudy, I do know that while he is arrogant enough to think he is the best man for the job of President, I also know that he is not stupid enough to expect to win the Republican nomination under the current circumstances .  But kingmaker is not out of the question and Rudy knows that that is where he can have a big effect on the 2012 presidential race.

Bookmark and Share

For Huntsman, Any Bush is Better Than No Bush at All

George P. (Jeb Bush, Jr.)

Bookmark and Share   In what was rolled at by Jon Huntsman’s campaign as a “major” announcement in Florida, George Prescott Gallo Bush, today announced that he was formally endorsing Jon Huntsman for President and joining the campaign as it’s GenH Chairman. If you’re wondering which Bush is George Prescott Gallo Bush, you are also probably wondering why Huntsman considered this to be a major announcement.

The Bush we are talking about is commonly referred to as George P.  or Jeb Bush, Jr. and he already unofficially endorsed Huntsman..

Jeb P. is the oldest son of former Florida Governor Jeb Bush. and Columba Garnica Gallo, a naturalized U.S. citizen from Mexico. He is one of the grandchildren that former President George H. W. Bush once infamously referred to as one of the “brown ones”.

If all of this has confused you as to which George and which Jeb is who, great!. That is exactly what Jon Huntsman is hoping for. All he really wants is for Republicans to know that a Bush endorsed him and hopefully when they connect the Florida announcement to a Bush, they assume it is the former Governor that endorsed him, not necessarily the son of the former Governor.

While Jeb, jr, is an admirable and more than respectable young man, his endorsement really does not carry much weight. But from Huntsman’s perspective, any Bush is better than no Bush. It is also the most notable, positive endorsement that Huntsman can get out of Florida. The popular rising star from the state, newly elected Senator Marco Rubio, has maintained that he is remaining neutral in the G.O.P. nomination contest. JGeorge P’s father, former Governor Jeb Bush, probably one of the most celebrated Bush’s of all in Republican circles at the moment, is unlikely to put his neck out for anyone right now, and Florida’s incumbent Governor, Rick Scott, is not the most popular figure in the Sunshine State at the moment. So Jeb P, Jr. is as close to major as Huntsman can get.

Still, if used right, the endorsement can get some mileage. Some.

If Jeb, Jr. is used specifically to get through to Florida’s youth vote and the conservative Hispanic population, of which there is a substantial one, then Huntsman’s campaign could at least play a factor in the Florida presidential primary. In any early realease of his announcement, in addition to endorsing Huntsman for President, Jeb P. declared:

“I will join Gov. Huntsman to formally endorse his candidacy, and accept a role as National Chairman of GenH – the campaign’s youth and young professionals outreach program. I will be joined by fellow Floridian Ana Navarro who will join the campaign as National Hispanic Chairperson.”

Currently Huntsman’s campaign is going nowhere. His numbers in Iowa and New Hampshire are dismal and stagnant. This does not mean that he can’t eventually get some traction but it does look like Huntsman is expecting not to get any traction any time soon. The focus on Jeb P. endorsement in Florida is probably a sign that Huntsman is prepared to surrender Iowa to Michele Bachmann, New Hampshire to Mitt Romney, South Carolina to either one of them and then to finally claim some ground in Florida.

That was the same strategy tried by former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani and today, he is still former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani. So I do not expect much to be different for Jon Huntsman but I guess any strategy is better than no strate.

See here  for the complete text of Jeb P’s announcemnt.

Bookmark and Share

Rudy Giuliani: A Better Democrat Presidential Candidate Than Republican Presidential Candidate?

Giuliani in drag and the way social conservatives see him

Bookmark and Share  As Rudy Giuliani continues to pretend that he can be a viable candidate for President on the Republican ticket, on Sunday during CNN’s State of the Union, he told Candy Crowley “the Republican Party would be well advised to get the heck out of people’s bedrooms and let these things get decided by states”.

While Giuliani claimed that he believes marriage should be between a man and woman, he stated that the libertarian streak of the Republican party should want to avoid “getting involved in people’s sexual lives.”

The former New York City mayor and failed 2008 candidate for the Republican presidential nomination told Republicans to  “Stay out of it,” and added. “I think we’d {Republicans} be a much more successful political party if we stuck to our economic, conservative roots and our idea of a strong, assertive America that is not embarrassed to be the leader of the world.”

While there is a degree of truth in Giuliani’s remarks, the social conservative base of the G.O.P. will not appreciate hiss lack of defense of what they would consider family values. However during the interview, Giuliani did clarify that in trying to make sure that families stay strong, he believed marriage should be preserved as a union between a man and a woman. He went on to state that he disagreed with New York State’s recent legalization of gay marriage but added that it was based on a democratic vote and can live with it.

While Rudy supports civil unions, he also believes the issue should be left up to each of the fifty states to decide for themselves.

Rudy’s position on the issue is one which highlights what is essentially one of the G.O.P.’s most pressing ideological questions. If Republican conservatism is based largely on liberty and limited government, should a limited government actually make decisions that do not allow those who live in relationships that involve an alternative lifestyle to have those relationships receive equal treatment by the law and under a judicial system that is suppose to be blind to our differences? Or is the primary responsibility of Republican conservatism the mission to defend “traditional” family values regardless of how much government must get involved in attempts to do so?

Sooner or later, the Republican Partyis going to have to make this decision. However, in the case of Rudy Giuliani, it is not likely that he will be able to do much to sway the Party in his direction. Answering that question will likely require the leadership of truly respected conservative leaders who are more trusted by the right than the left. It will also require the generational influences that account for the progression of cultural change that accounts for the societal changes that are constantly evolving.

In the meantime, the G.O.P. as a whole must somehow keep itself forging ahead while trying to reconcile its limited government beliefs with its desire to involve government in legislating family values. All while applying the basic American tenet of creating laws that defend equality. Until this reconciliation is achieved the G.O.P. will risk losing a significant minority of followers and future followers to the libertarian cause.

As for Giuliani, the reality of the current G.O.P. would indicate that he might have a better chance of defeating President Obama in a race for the Democrat presidential nomination, than he has at winning the Republican presidential nomination.

Bookmark and Share

Draft (fill in name here) for President

Bookmark and ShareAs the Republican presidentialcontest begins to sort out who is running and who isnt running, public anxiety over who can actually be a viable candidate to run against President Obama, mounts. At the moment, there is a great deal of chatter about how the G.O.P. has no one who can mount a credible challenge to President Obama in 2012. Such an assertion is ludicrous, but natural. Without any single name to naturally gravitate towards as the logical leader and face of the opposition to the President, it is easy to believe that misconception. But it is important to remember that recent history shows us that the existence of an undeniably obvious nominee for the Party opposing an incumbent President is rare.

While there are always names that may seem to have the inside track for the nomination, at this early stage in the game, you usually do not have a name that is the clear frontrunner and logical candidate to lineup behind.That’s the case for republicans right now.And it is that sentiment which has forced many who are opposed to a second term for President Obama,to goon the hunt for the perfect candidate. Such pre-primary activity is a natural manifestation of the desire to insure that the incumbent President is not reelected. History has been laced with efforts to draft popular figures to run for the Oval Office.

Perhaps the most famous and one of the only truly successful draft efforts in American electoral history was that of General Dwight D. Eisenhower in 1952. That effort actually began in 1948 when Democrats believed that President Harry S. Truman had no chance of getting elected. An active duty General, Ike had believed in being non-partisan when it came to politics, so for Democrats, having him carry their mantle was quite possible. And when it seemed as though Republicans might nominate General Douglas MacArthur as their candidate for President, Harry Truman himself offered to run as Eisenhowers vice presidential running mate if he would accept the Democrat Partys nomination.

Four years later Republicans who had not held the White House in twenty years and Democrats who had noincumbent to run for reelection for the first time in 16 years, clamored for a nominee who could easily win the presidency in 1952. Republican standard-bearerThomas Dewy had been the Partys nominee twice and twice he was defeated. As a result, Dewey was not inclined to run for a third time and Republicans were not inclined to let him run as their nominee again. But Governor Dewey and Massachusetts Senator Henry Cabot Lodge worked to persuade Eisenhower to run for the Republican presidential nomination through an organization called “National Citizens for Eisenhower”. Up till then, the closest name that Republicans had to a frontrunner was Robert Taft.

Senator Robert Taft

Taft was the establishment’s choice, but a schism between isolationist Republicans, represented by Taft, and internationalist Republicans who wanted someone else, gave the draft Eisenhower movement much momentum. At the same time, the spread of Communism was an issue of most importance and it was the one issue most responsible for Eisenhowers willingness to accept a run for the White House.

Ike believed in the use of diplomacy to contain the red menace in Europe. But Taft had a McCarthy-like belief in weeding out subversion at home. Things finally came to a head behind closed doors when Eisenhower told Taft that he would absolutely refuse to run if Taft agreed to collective security of Europe. But Senator Taft refused and so Ike allowed the draft movement to proceed. He also decided that if he would accept any nomination it would be the Republican nomination. This he determined when he realized that he was not in synch with the Democrats big, central government, liberty eroding approach to all the issues facing the nation.

President Dwight D. Eisenhower

By early January of 1952, Eisenhower made it clear that if he was offered the Republican presidential nomination, he would accept it. And so without Eisenhower even knowing, Henry Cabot Lodge placed Eisenhowers name on the New Hampshire Republican Primary ballot. But Eisenhower still did not campaign. In fact he told people that he did not believe that support for him was a popular as many tried to claim.

Then in February, a Draft Eisenhower for President rally was held in New Yorks Madison Square Garden. The event was expected to draw a whopping 16,000 people to it. But those projections were wrong. An overwhelming 25,000 people showed up. A month later, General Eisenhower won every single delegate in the New Hampshire primary as he defeated Robert Taft by 50% to 38%. The rest is history.

The next closest example of a draft effort, came in 1964. The effort itself though, actually began in 1961.

With the defeat of Nixon in 1960, the Republican Party began its long, contemporary evolution towards the right. The leaders of the Republican Eastern establishment seemed to have exhausted its hold on to the type of influence it had been wielding. And at the same time a growing number of conservatives were beginning to organize. These numbers first took root within the ranks of the National and State Young Republican organizations. but while all this was happening, Arizona Senator Barry Goldwater began serving as the Chairman of the Republican Senate Re-elect Committee. In this position he traveled thousands of miles, spoke before tens of thousands of people and quickly became the most popular face of the growing conservative movement.

By the time 1961 approached, with no clear choice for the 1964 Republican Presidential nomination, Conservatives itching to take the Party over from the liberal establishment, began to organize and think about who their candidate for President would be. Among a small group of political insiders, the consensus was Barry Goldwater. But Goldwater refused to run. He did not believe that he could win and he did not want his family exposed to the rigors of such a national campaign.

Then in June of 1961 Time magazine placed Goldwaters picture on their cover and did a story on his growing national popularity. They wrote;

“Goldwater is the hottest political figure this side of Jack Kennedy…. No Republican is more in demand. Since March, Goldwater’s Washington office has received more than 650 written invitations for the Senator to put in an appearance, plus hundreds of telephone requests. Goldwater’s mail runs to a remarkable 800 pieces a day…[and] visitors crowd around Barry Goldwater’s fourth floor suite in the Old Senate Office Building hoping to earn a passing hand clasp or a hastily scrawled autograph.”

This added to the motivation that a small group of activists already had. F. Clifton White, William A. Rusher, and Ohio Congressman John M. Ashbrook, began a process that combined tens of thousands of conservative contacts and began to organize a process that would get them in to Republican Party leadership positions. The most important of these positions were those of delegates to the 1964 Republican National Convention. This behind the scenes, group of three, eventually became a group of 22 and continued to grow from there. Soon it became known as the Suite 3505 Committee. 3505 being the address number of its New York City office.

Congressman John Ashbrook

After intense networking of Young Republicans, women s groups, and conservative oriented voters of all kinds, the expanded executive committee of this group concluded that Barry Goldwater was their only real choice for President in 64. But Goldwater still rejected the notion. So the committee quickly became an official draft organization that would seek to force Goldwater to run. It expanded and created state committees and between petitions, publicity and aggressive persuasion, Barry Goldwater decided on November 20, 1963 to run for the Republican presidential nomination.

Two days later, President John F. Kennedy was assassinated. This changed everything. Kennedy was a friend of Goldwater and the two had come to look forward to a sincere campaign that would test their ideologies. Goldwater also knew that with President Johnson now as his opponent, his own Southern base would be undermined. Two weeks after President Kennedy was assassinated, Goldwater announced that he would not be a candidate. However, The draft movement that had been in place never stopped and on December 11th, 1964, with polls showing Goldwater to be the clear frontrunner for the Republican nomination, he reentered the race.

Both of these draft movements teach us lessons that are relevant to todays approaching presidential election.

The draft efforts of 1952 and 1964 were both successful in getting the person they intended nominated. But both campaigns involved figures who had some sort ofundeniablyobviouspopularity. For Eisenhower it was popularity among the general population. For Goldwater, it was popularity among a growing movement within the population. Each provided momentum but equally as important, each had a candidate that was at some point in time willing to run. So the question is, can a successful draft effort be waged for the 2012 election?

It is clear that the G.O.P. is not in a position to use 1952 as a model. There is no single figure who is as popular among both Democrats and Republicans as Eisenhower was. But there are some parallels to 2012 that can be drawn from the 1964 draft Goldwater effort. Here we have a comparison that can be made between the emergence of the Conservative wing of the G.O.P. in the 60s, and the rise of the TEA Party movement of the past two years.

But there are two important distinguishing factors that come with this comparison.

The organization of the Conservatives movement in the 1960s involved coordination from within the political establishment, four years before the next presidential election. This allowed for an expedited path to organizing the movements ability to takeover the Party from within and, to elect Party officials and delegates to the National Convention. The TEA Party began on the outside of the establishment and even though it now has a few of its own on the inside, they have much less time to organize than did the effort of 1960. But perhaps the most important of all differences is that unlike the case with Conservatives in 64, the TEA movement has no one person that it is solidly behind. In 64 the Conservative movement had Barry Goldwater as their clear favorite, the consensus candidate. The Taxed Enough Already movement lacks that clear consensus choice. Is it Sarah Palin? Is it Michele Bachmann, Donald Trump, Herman Cain, Allen West, Marco Rubio, or someone else?

Sarah Palin is the one contender with whom a draft movement could possibly be most successful. But even if all the right pieces were to fall into place and a successful 1964-like Barry Goldwater draft effort helped make Sarah Palin the Republican presidential nominee, that draft model failed to win the general election.

Draft efforts that are based only upon movements within a particular segment of society are able to influence the smaller electorate of partisan politics, but they have less of a chance to influence the vast majority of the larger electorate as a whole. This is not to say that the TEA Party movement cant influence the nomination of a Republican candidate that can win the presidential election. They can. But that influence can not come through a draft effort that labels the nominee as the TEA Party candidate. Just as it did not work when Goldwater was labeled the Conservatives candidate. Being a conservative candidate and being the Conservatives candidate create two vastly differently images. The latter is a direct negative connotation implying that one is owned by a particular group. The former indicates ones own sense of conviction. It may be shared with others, but it is not owned by others.

Probably one of the most successful draft campaigns that Republicans could run is one which seeks to make General David Petraeus our nominee. Like Eisenhower he is not seen as particularly partisan, he is not viewed as being owned by any Party or movement, and at a time when our nation is waging one war, possibly getting involved in another, and winding another one down, the choice of a General as our nations leader carries a certain populist logic.

Then again, the sense of the electorate is that our economy and the national budget are our most immediate top priorities. Who would be a natural candidate to draft given that consideration?

If Donald Trump were not such a dangerously fowl mouthed, often irrational and egomaniacal, loose cannon, he could have been a strong draft pick. Were it not for RomneyCare, Mitt Romney with his private sector, managerial, and business experience, would have been another perfect fit for solving economic problems. But we all knew that Romneyhas beenrunning for a long time now, so a draft effort was never even needed for him. In factfor all intents and purposes, he should be the frontrunner without a draft effort.

Governor Mitch Daniels

The person perfectly suited for a successful draft campaign based on the economy would be Indiana Governor Mitch Daniels. As a former budget director he earned the nickname The Blade” and his leadership inIndiana, particularly on the state budget, is unmatched. Indiana is one of the most solvent state’s in the nation and its economy has been one of the strongest of all during the current economic malaise. Of course for Mitch Daniels, there is already a very active draft effort underway.

Students For Daniels has aired commercials in Iowa, organized college campuses on state levels, created an active and effective website and maintained a degree of pressure that is all good. But Mitch Daniels seems reluctant to make a decision to run and as such, the draft effort begun by Students for Daniels would need to quickly expand beyond students if it is to achieve its goal. But even then one must ask, could a person like Mitch Daniels attract a crowd of 25,000 to Madison Square Garden as the draft effort for Eisenhower did in 1952? Its unlikely.

Truly successful drafts are rare and at this stage in the game, it is unlikely that such an effort would be very productive. Although there are a handful of names that I believe are worthy of draft efforts and have an ability to generate popular support, many of those names are clearly unwilling to run. Two personal favorites of mine include Florida Senator Marco Rubio and Wisconsin Congressman Paul Ryan. But with 17 months or so to go, it may not be possible to coordinate the type of effort that could generate the national euphoria for their candidacies that would be necessary for them to accept the nomination. Paul Ryan is quite satisfied with the extraordinary power that he wields as Chairman of the House Budget Committee and while Marco Rubio is a sort of new phenomenon, he clearly intends to pace himself. Rubio does not want to be a flash in the pan.

That is why, all things considered, the Republican Party is probably best left to a process that involves the unforced participation fo candidates. We will be best suited by a contest that allows the eventual nominee to have to earn his or her popularity based on their ability to demonstrate the courage of leadership, their innovative solutions to our problems and the capacity to translateconservatism into the practical application of government. A contest that allows for suchabilities to be publicly tested through a hard fought campaign, can truly make those who currently believe that a viable candidate is not on the horizon, begin to believe that the right person has been right in front of eyes all this time.

Political campaigns have a way of producing heroes. Some quickly fade when the campaign ends, others linger on as trusted elder statesmen. But either way, the winner of those campaigns earn themselves at least a temporarydevout following and the 2012 primary process will be no different.

In the mean time, we the people, still seek that perfect candidate. And that search has produced no lack of current draft efforts. Here are just some that can be found:

2012 Draft Sarah Committee

Draft Jim DeMint for President in 2012

Draft Paul Ryan for President

Chris Christie for President

We Need Michele

Draft Cain 2012

Draft Allen West for President 2012

Jeb Bush 2012

Draft Rudy Giuliani for President

Students for Daniels

Draft Rand Paul for President

Draft General David Petraeus for President

Draft Michael Bloomberg 2012

Draft Lou Dobbs for President

Should Trump Run

Draft Gates 2012

Draft Mike Huckabee for President 2012

Draft Jesse Ventura

Draft Dick Cheney for President

Draft Marco Rubio for President 2012

Judge Andrew Napolitano for President

Bookmark and Share

Rudy Believes He Has Plenty of Time to Decide

Bookmark and Share This weekend Rudy Giuliani spoke at the University of Arkansas and when asked if he is running for President his response was that he doesnt know. According to the former Mayor and former candidate for the Republican presidential nomination,

My concern about 2012 is. because I’m a Republican to make sure that the Republican party fields a candidate that can win. And if I think that I can help by being a candidate, then that would probably persuade me to do it, but if I can help supporting another candidate, then I’d probably do that. And there’s time to figure that out. The good thing about this election as opposed to four years ago, is that it’s happening very slowly, so it gives you a chance to think about it.. gives you a chance to get it down to a smaller period of time so people can focus more on the issues.

Giuliani believes that a condensed election cycle is best for the nation. He goes on to say

The election wont start until next year and with everything going in the world, I think that will probably better with everything going on the world, it gives the President time to be President.

Giulianimay be right, but seeing as how President Obama just filed the papers that made him an official candidate for reelection, he might want to tell the President that he need not start campaigning till next year, because he obviously isnt aware of that.

As for Rudy himself running, he barely made it outr of starting gate last time and I don’t have any reason to believe that a 2012 Giuliani campaign will be less lame than it was in 2008. And insofar as helping a Republican candidate to win the presidency, his best use for that mission would be to stay quiet during the primaries and caucuses and campaign for the eventual nominee in blue states and swing states. He resonates much better with the left side of the political spectrum than he does with the right leaning base of the G.O.P..

Bookmark and Share

Christie, Gingrich, Daniels and Romney Top New Jersey Presidential Straw Poll

Bookmark and Share At a gathering of Republican candidates, campaign managers, staffers and grass root activists, White House 2012 and Building the New Majority sponsored New Jerseys first Republican presidential straw poll for the 2012 election and the winner was their own Governor, Chris Christie.

Of the 196 voters who participated, 19.8% named Governor Christie their first choice for the Republican presidential nomination. Coming in second was former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich with 12.5%, followed by Indiana Governor Mitch Daniels and former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney with 9.4% each, former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee 7.3%, former Florida Governor Jeb Bush 6.3%, former Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty 5.2%, and Texas Rep. Ron Paul and former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin tied at 4.2%.

The Garden State Republican Presidential Straw Poll consisted of 25 of the most often mentioned names and likely contenders in the emerging Republican field. Due to the large size of the still developing field and the likelihood that some, if not many of those names on the ballot may not run, or may not make it to the New Jersey primary, unlike most traditional straw polls, the White House 2012/BTNM ballot also asked New Jersey Republicans who their second choice for President was. The big winner here was Mitt Romney who was the second choice of 20.8% of voters. This conclusion is quite important given the fact that Governor Christie has repeatedly denied any interest in running for President in 2012.

Following Romney in this second choice category was Sarah Palin, Minnesota Congresswoman Michele Bachmann and former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani, each with 8.3%, Mike Huckabee 6.3% and Mitch Daniels 5.2%.

Click here to read raw numbers

A third question on the ballot asked voters to describe their place on the ideological scale within the Republican Party. None of the respondents described themselves as liberal but 75%, or 144 of the participating voters called themselves conservative, and the remaining 48 (25%), described themselves of moderate.

Among self described conservatives, a majority of 15.3% named Chris Christie as their first choice for the presidential nomination and 23.6% of them named Mitt Romney as their second choice for the nomination. As for moderates 33.3% of them also declared Christie to be their first choice but their second choice for the nomination was Rudy Giuliani who took that position with 25% of the vote from moderates.

See complete results below this post

The poll was conducted by White House 2012 and Building the New Majority amongNew Jersey Republicans who participated ina recent seminar sponsored by Building the New Majority and the Family PolicyCouncil that took place in Parsippany, New Jersey.

While these results are by no means a sure sign of how the New Jersey Republican presidential primary will turnout less than a year from now, it does offer a good glimpse at where the energies and enthusiasm of the activist base of the states G.O.P. lie. These results demonstrate to me, that at this stage in the game, if Chris Christie is true to his word about not running for the nomination, Mitt Romney looks good in New Jersey. Romney worked the Republican base and Party activists pretty well in 2008, and while minds are by no means made up yet, his efforts of the last campaign for president are giving him a slight advantage in New Jersey in the coming election.

As indicated by the numbers, the results were influenced by a largely conservative vote, but a strong conservative influence is likely to dominate New Jersey’s actual presidential primary. How much has yet to be seen.

The Raw Numbers

Who is your FIRST CHOICE for the 2012 Republican Presidential nomination?

Who is yourSECOND CHOICE for the 2012 Republican Presidential nomination?

Do you consider yourself to be a liberal, a moderate, or conservative Republican?

  1. Conservative 144 75%
  2. Moderate 48 25%
  3. Liberal 0 0

Bookmark and Share

The Neapolitan Party

Early on in this race, we are starting to see a clear breakdown in the Republican party into three distinct flavors. The question will be whether one candidate can unite the party once the others have melted away.

Can Republicans compromise on one flavor?

The social conservatives are known for their stances on family values, morality, and for some, Christianity. They are the candidates that the Family Research Counsel and American Family Association would love to see win. They are openly supportive of the TEA Party movement and are popular among talk radio listeners and Glenn Beck fans. They are big on national security, small government, and spending cuts, but these stances are drowned out by their social values. They are often controversial and pull no punches in attacking the Left. This flavor includes Sarah Palin, Mike Huckabee, Jim DeMint, Herman Cain, Haley Barbour, Rick Perry and Rick Santorum.

Then you have the fiscal conservatives. They are proven businessmen. They have cut costs in government, they have balanced budgets, they have produced growth, and many of them have large personal fortunes. They have made the tough, controversial decisions having to do with the size of government, and they have produced incredible results. However, even though many of them are pro-life, pro-family, and generally socially conservative, this does not come out strongly in their campaigns. They are willing to work across the aisle, and sometimes alienate their own party by doing it. Social conservatives don’t trust them, but they enjoy a closet relationship with the TEA Party movement. They are strong on national security and foreign policy. These candidates include Mitt Romney, Tim Pawlenty, Mitch Daniels, Rudy Giuliani, and Donald Trump.

Finally, there are the libertarians. Although they may live socially conservative lives and oppose things like abortion on a personal and state level, they will die by the principle that such things are beyond the scope of the Federal Government’s regulations. They oppose foreign wars and take a very cynical approach to free trade, the UN, and other foreign entanglements. They oppose the war on drugs and would take a chainsaw to the Federal Government’s authority without hesitation. Secretly, many conservatives love them, but most would not actually vote for them. These include Ron Paul and Gary Johnson.

And then there is Newt Gingrich. Newt can be credited with helping bring about one of our nation’s most prosperous times as he worked both across the aisle and strongly against a Clinton administration to balance the budget.

Newt can win the general. Can he win the primary?

Newt also is a dedicated social conservative, who despite his own personal family issues from a decade ago is a strong advocate for socially conservative issues. Newt also advocates for limited government, but certainly not anywhere to the extent that Ron Paul does. Gingrich is smart on foreign policy and thinks outside of the box.

His American Solutions website and conservative crusade starting from when he was considering a presidential run in 2007 have helped to codify and establish the conservative brand going into 2012. He has been a strong TEA Party ally without appearing to be a one dimensional TEA Party candidate.

Could Newt be the candidate who can unite enough of the Republican Neapolitan breakdown to win in 2012? He could certainly defeat Obama in a debate and would have a strong showing in a general election. The question is if he can get enough of the social conservative, fiscal conservative and libertarian Republicans to abandon their favorite in order to unite behind him in the primary.

Rudy Takes Subtle Swipes at Palin as He Considers Another Run for President

Bookmark and Share CNN reports that Rudy Giuliani once again confirmed he is considering a run for President in 2012, especially if Sarah Palin runs.
In an interview on “Piers Morgan Tonight”, that will beairing on Monday, Giulianialso sharply criticizes Sarah Palin for using the term “blood libel” in her video response to unfounded accusatuions chargingher withresponsibility for the recent Arizona shooting massacre. According to Giuliani, the term is too closely related to Jewish genocide to have been used inreference to her situation.
Regarding his possible run for President, Rudy opines that the more Republicans who run, the more he can contrast himself from all of them and the better his chances of winning will be. See a clip from the interviewhere.

The former New York City Mayor also indicates that if Sarah Palin runs, so will he.

Sounds like fightin words to me.

Apparently he not only seems to see the sharpest contrast of all to be the one that exists between him and Palin, it also sounds as though he has a big problem with her.

Could Rudy be trying to pick up the mantle for the Nelson Rockefeller wing of the G.O.P.? And if so, is he really banking on the ability of the establishment political class and the liberal wings of the Party to overpower the anti-establishment, TEA Party influenced and conservative wings of the Party? Either way, perhaps the best way for Rudy to approach things is via a more conciliatory tone that seeks to forge a path of common ground for the G.O.P to stand on.

One thing is for sure though. Hereto now, none of the possible Republican contenders have dared to ruffle the feathers of Palin admirers. None except for Rudy. He seems quite desirous to do so. Perhaps its way of distinguishing himself from the field early? But no one ever claimed Rudy was a particularlygreta campaigner and political strategist. His 2008 campaign effort provided us with a textbook example of how not to run for President. If he is seriously considering another run for the Oval Office in 2012, hopefully he hasfreshened up on that textbook. From the sounds of it, he hasnt.

Meanwhile a recent straw poll of New Hampshire State Republican Committeemembers places Rudy in 14th place with 2%. Palin stands infourth place with 7%. Neither received numbers worth crowing about.

Bookmark and Share

Rudy Ready To Run for Prez Again? Did He Ever Really Run for it Before?

Bookmark and Share The Page Six gossip column of the New York Post cites anonymous sources as claiming that former New York City Mayor and 2008 candidate for the Republican presidential nomination, Rudy Giuliani, has assembled his past top advisors for a look at another go at the Republican presidential nomination in 2012. It additionally claims that he has scheduled a trip to New Hampshire.

If true, the first thing Rudy would need to do is get a new team of top advisors together, not use the same ones who proved to make his last bid for the nomination seem like a campaign for a local school board position. The second thing he would need to do is campaign in Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada , not just Florida.

Based upon Rudys last half hearted and half assed run for the nomination, I find it hard to believe that he is trying again. But politicians egos never die and I am sure that Rudy is a legend in his own mind and believes that if anyone can beat Barack Obama, he can. But thats not saying much right now. At the moment anyone who can talk and add has a shot at defeating our economically challenged Commander-in-Chief. But that will change. Most U.S. Presidents are reelected more often than not and if President Obama is anything, he is a good campaigner, especially when it comes to rhetoric.

So if Rudy really is gathering his team together to take a look at running for President again, he better take a good long and hard look. And he better understand that being Rudy Giuliani alone is not enough. He will have to prove that he is willing to fight real hard and then somehow prove why he is more qualified than people like Haley Barbour, Mitt Romney, Mitch Daniels and Newt Gingrich. At the moment, I cant think of any reason why he is more qualified. While he was undeniably a godsend for New York City and turned it around unlike anyone could have ever imagined, New York is unique. There, you are considered a conservative if you graduate from private school and the issues and problems directly confronting the five boroughs of New York City require a skill set and focus that is quite different from those that are borne of the collective problems and needs of the 50 states.

For now, I will take the Page Six column of the New York Post with a grain of salt. Wayne Semprini does.

Semprini is New Hampshires former state G.O.P. Chair and a close friend and political advisor of Rudys. When he was contacted about the rumor by New Hampshire reporters, he stated that he was unaware of either any trip to New Hampshire by Giuliani or any future campaign in New Hampshire by Giuliani. Semprini reportedly said, Maybe he is just going skiing.

In the end, you cant rule out a run by Rudy, but if he is really still interested in electoral politics, why did he not first try to run for U.S. Senate or Governor in New York . The state really needed a good candidate to run against either Chuck Schumer, Kirsten Gillibrand or Andrew Cuomo. As far as I am concerned, he let both New York and the G.O.P. down by not stepping up to plate and challenging any one of them and his last campaign for president was hardly a campaign at all. So why should I trust him to effectively challenge Barack Obama now?

Bookmark and Share

Huckabee’s Record Will Haunt Him in 2012

Mike Huckabee giving a speech following the So...

Mike Huckabee

Bookmark and Share In 2008, like many, I was initially struck by Mike Huckabee’sgood natured, easy going persona and mastery of the issues. As a former two term Governor, he came across as a credible conservative force and his homespun stories and original and witty sayings helped convey the points he wanted to get across in a memorable and often impressive way. But a closer look shows that Mike Huckabee is more like a used car salesman than a reliable conservative.

As Governor of Arkansas, while touting his credentials as a fiscal conservative, the record shows that a liberal Republican like Rudy Giuliani cut taxes far more in New York City as Mayor than Huckabee did as Governor of Arkansas.

On immigration, Mike Huckabee’s tough talk neglects to mention that as Governor he opposed fellow Republicans on a bill that would have required proof of citizenship to vote or in order to receive social services. And as a minister, the former Governor has called illegal immigration God’s payback for slavery.

But it is the issue of crime which truly shuts the door on Huckabee’s conservative credentials.

While in office, Huckabee had a schedule of clemencies that amounted to 1 pardon every four days that he was in office as Governor. The 1,033 sentences that he commuted, far exceeded that of other Governors and some of those pardons proved to be deadly.

Maurice Clemmons Shot Dead
Marice Clemmons
Wayne DuMond

In one case, Huckabee pardoned hardened criminal Wayne DuMond whom after he was released, raped and killed two women. Beyond those preventable tragedies, in 2009 another criminal who was pardoned by Huckabee was Maurice Clemmons, a man who’s criminal history included five felony convictions in Arkansas and at least eight felony charges in Washington State. At one point Clemmons went on spree so violent that a judge saw fit to sentence him to 95 years behind bars. Yet despite the objections of prosecutors, Governor Huckabee issued Clemmons clemency and gave him the opportunity that he took to kill 4 police officers in cold blood as they sat in a Lakewood, Washington coffee house.

On the day that Clemmons was found to be the murderer of officers Ronald Owens, Mark Renninger, Greg Richards and Tina Griswold, the prosecuting attorney, Larry Jegley, who handled the Clemmons case in Arkansas’ Pulaski County, made clear his doubts about Huckabee’s numerous pardons by calling it a day he had been “dreading for a long time.”

For his part, when it was learned that one of his pardoned criminals was responsible for the murder of the four police officers, Huckabee avoided any responsibility by dodging the issue in a statement that read;

“Politics is the last thing on my mind. It should be the last thing on anybody’s mind. To me it’s repulsive that people are trying to bring something like that up in the midst of what ought to be a concern for these officer’s families”

Huckabee did however add that that the criminal justice system “was far from perfect and in this case it failed miserably on all sides”, but that little addition still neglected to name himself as being responsible for part of the failure.

That is a point which Mike Huckabee may not be willing to make but in 2012, too many of his opponents will be more than happy to mention it.

Back in 2008 Huckabee was a virtual unknown who shocked the political world after winning Iowa, a caucus state with a high percentage of fundamental Christians who fell for the Hucksters conservative message. In 2012 though, it will be pretty hard for him to make the same case for himself.

This time, the Republican field is ready for him and they are prepared to take him out among an electorate that is more conservative, more motivated and much angrier than they were in ’08, when Huckabee’s record didn’t have time tarnish. Combined with what will be an extremely competitive field that has no clear frontrunner and what you have in Mike Huckabee is very smooth talking and very flawed candidate who is going to have a hard time convincing voters that he is tougher on taxes and crime than someone like Sarah Palin or Haley Barbour or Mike Pence, Mitch Daniels or Bobby Jindal.

All of these factors are making a 2012 run for the presidency by Huckabee quite unlikely and rightly so.

In 2012 values voters are going to have a multitude of good choices. So much so that Huckabee will not have as tight a grip on the evangelical Christian vote, as he did two years ago. And on top of that, now that the ramifications of Huckabee’s record as Governor have now had plenty of time to reveal themselves, they will haunt him every step of the way.

In 2008 Huckabee played the role of spoiler. For voters who were looking for a viable alternative to early frontrunner John McCain, Huckabee siphoned off votes from the one man who had a real shot of taking the nomination from McCain. Mitt Romney. But in 2012 call it payback or karma but Mike Huckabee’s own record will be siphoning votes away from himself. The mere mention of the four cops killed by the man that Huckabee set free will certainly be making people think twice before voting for Mike Huckabee again and for that reason, I think Mike Huckabee is going to have to think twice too, before throwing his hat in the ring anytime soon.

Bookmark and Share

Tea, Dr. Paul?

Bookmark and Share     The Tea Party movement is unpredictable.  The Republican establishment has tried to control it.  Conservative commentators have tried to direct it.  It continues to roll on in its own direction.  Being a popular movement, it has far more to do with the feelings and situation of average people: people who feel betrayed by both parties.  Generally it falls within the Republican, Libertarian and Constitution parties, but for all practical purposes its greatest impact is on the Republican Party.

Sarah Palin has tried to brand herself as its candidate in 2012, but she’s soured on some for her endorsement of John McCain in the Arizona primary over a true Tea Partier.  The other front runners haven’t tried to attach themselves to the movement yet, but they’ve tried to echo it.  Since no one knows if it will last until 2012, the majority of front runners don’t want to tie themselves to it.  It could evaporate after the 2010 election cycle, particularly if the economy improves.  If the economy stays weak or worsens, the Tea Party movement will determine both the Republican nominee in 2012 and the Presidency.

That raises the question of Ron Paul.  If there is any candidate the original Tea Partiers of 2007-08 supported more than others it was Ron Paul.  At the time, the Tea Party was mainly against TARP which most of the Republican Presidential aspirants supported.  As the Tea Party movement has grown, it has attracted many people who grew disillusioned by the Stimulus and Health Care bills.  It is a far more diverse group than it was in the beginning.  Once dominated by Ron Paul supporters, it now has Palin, Romney, Huckabee, Jindal, Barbour, Christie and a host of other supporters – most of whom had held their nose and voted for McCain over Obama in 2008.

The core of the Tea Party is split between two groups: the original members and the 9-12 people.  Glenn Beck had been on the outside looking in at the end of the Bush Presidency.  He was one of the few who argued against the TARP program.  He started publicly supporting the Tea Partiers and his followers (9-12 Project people) started to join in.  His key note address to CPAC signaled the shift of the conservative base away from the party leadership towards the Tea Party movement.  Since then, established party leaders have faced challenges from the right in primaries and some of the Presidential hopefuls have gone unusually quiet rather than take sides and risk their futures.

That brings us back to Ron Paul.  Ron Paul was also on the outside looking in during the 2008 primary.  He and the infant Tea Party were considered a bit loony.  The main stream media treated his campaign like a joke and the Republican Party leadership treated it like a cross between lunacy and treason.  Much has changed in two years.  The fringe Tea Party is now the majority according to polls of registered Republicans.  Glenn Beck has grown in influence and has thrown his entire weight and considerable following in with the Tea Party.  He has also grown increasingly closer to Ron Paul’s political position.  They first agreed on the economy.  Then they agreed on government domestic programs.  Now they agree on foreign policy: the one area in which Ron Paul had been excoriated by the Republican establishment in 2008 as being ‘soft on terror’.

The largest group of self-identified Tea Partiers is most influenced by a man who now agrees almost entirely with Ron Paul’s positions.  The original members of the Tea Party who still organize most of the local events already favored Ron Paul.  While nothing in politics is ever certain for any length of time, it isn’t a reach to say that Ron Paul has gone from fringe candidate to serious contender.  Should the Tea Party sentiment continue to 2012 and Beck maintain his influence, Ron Paul may find himself the favorite.  As other candidates try to cozy up to the Tea Party and claim to have always supported it, Paul will be in the unique position of using their 2008 attacks on him against them.  That could be real trouble for any candidate that ran in 2008, particularly Mitt Romney who would have to explain both his support for TARP and his support of State health care while governor of Massachusetts.

Polls taken of self-identified Tea Partiers already have Sarah Palin and Ron Paul in a statistical dead heat for their preferred Presidential candidate.  Again, enter Glenn Beck who is very linked with Palin and will be co-hosting the “Restoring Honor Rally”.  Palin is definitely working hard to make herself the Tea Party favorite and betting the bank on the movement both defining and deciding the 2012 election.  There’s just something about Palin that gives the impression that she may be the current Prom Queen, but will not end up being the Bride a couple years from now.  Like Rudy Giuliani’s 9/11 popularity did by 2004, her popularity seems likely to fade when people just can’t quite see her as “Presidential”.  Just as Giuliani was considered a front runner by many and even did well in polls right up to the primaries but then suddenly collapsed in failure, Palin is this cycle’s ‘crush’ and will likely also look good right up to 2012 before collapsing completely.

But who will the Palin supporters vote for when they find themselves unable to check her name once in the voting booth?  In 2008, Giuliani supporters broke mainly for the ideologically similar but more ‘electable’ McCain and secondarily for Romney (which had more to do with geography than ideology).  Will the Palin supporters break mainly for Ron Paul then in 2012 or will they go for another candidate who slides up to the Tea Party movement between now and 2012 who is more ‘electable’ than Ron Paul?  Or will Ron Paul shake the ‘unelectable’ label now that the prevailing politics have shifted to his position?  It’s anyone’s guess.

One thing is certain: Ron Paul isn’t on the fringe anymore.  If he doesn’t win the nomination, he will certainly be a major factor in who does.  More and more Republican Presidential hopefuls and even some democratic strategists are sounding a lot like Ron Paul.  It may be a safe bet that Ron Paul won’t win the nomination but that someone who sounds a lot like him will.  Ron Paul would then be remembered as a kind of Goldwater-like figure, but someone else would be the next Reagan.  But, as I stated at the beginning of this piece: the Tea Party movement is unpredictable.  It is certainly well within the realm of possibility that Ron Paul will be drinking tea in the Oval Office.

Bookmark and Share
%d bloggers like this: