Why I Am Endorsing Newt Gingrich for President

Bookmark and Share    This country is in trouble and bold leadership is needed. As someone that has had the privilege to vet these candidates as closely as just about anybody else has, I’ve come to the conclusion there are several good, Christian people running that most years I would vote for.

However, this isn’t most years.

Sadly, there are only two candidates offering a real means by which to actually undo that which the Left has done to this country for the past 50 years, and not just conservative platitudes. One of those candidates is Ron Paul, but his foreign policy is naive at best and reckless at worst. The other is Newt Gingrich, who has campaigned on what I believe is the most important issue facing us as a people—the loss of the rule of law.

The Left has used unelected judges and judicial oligarchy to reinvent the American way of life, from secularism to the loss of the sanctity of life, to the redefining of marriage, the confiscation of private property, and the granting of imaginary rights. There is an entire chapter of my new book devoted to the need for conservatives and Christians to confront judicial oligarchy once and for all. I have spent the past two years of my radio program educating my audience on this issue, and was a vocal proponent of Iowa’s historic judicial retention election last year, and Newt’s assistance with that effort was vital.

After offering every candidate in the race the chance to show they understand the gravity of this issue, Gingrich is the only one who has demonstrated he does, and can also use the bully pulpit of the presidency to educate Americans on the need to return to the rule of law.

I understand Newt has taken positions and done things in his personal life I do not agree with, but to his credit he has come on my radio program and been very transparent about those things, and has shown humility and a willingness to be transparent in the process.

He has signed the Personhood Pledge I advocated for. He has offered one of the most articulate defenses of marriage and the family I have ever read from a candidate. He has agreed to never sign a budget into law that includes a plug nickel for an abortion provider. He has agreed to seek personhood legislation and a stronger defense of marriage act that would limit the judicial oligarchs’ ability to legislate from the bench.

With these steps he has shown the leadership this country desperately needs. Electing another Obamney from the ruling class changes nothing. Electing another nice conservative with no proven ability to govern or a killer instinct to take on the system changes nothing, even if it makes us all feel warm and fuzzy inside.

This is a time for leadership, not warm fuzzies. The future is at stake, and we may never get another environment with the country so prepared to challenge the system as we have right now.

I suppose I could stay silent and let the process run its course, as many other so-called leaders are doing, so as to not worry about alienating some of my fellow believers by making this decision. But then I’d have to look my children in the eye years from now and explain to them why I stood by and said nothing when I had the chance, as more hackneyed Obamneys finish off what’s left of the greatest country God has ever shed His grace upon.

I’m willing to take full responsibility for this decision, just as I hope those that have chosen to support other candidates who themselves have fatal flaws are willing to do the same. It is my hope the other Republican candidates will follow Gingrich’s bold leadership in providing the country a true alternative to President Obama.

It is my prayer that next year that for once we actually have something to vote for, and not just something to vote against. I am making this endorsement in the hopes that will be the case. Sometimes the most broken people are the ones God does the most tremendous work through. I know that has been true in my life.

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Trunkline 2012: Friday’s Campaign Trail News Wrap-Up from White House 2012 – 12/30/11

Bookmark and Share  The news from the campaign trail todasy is plentiful as Newt weeps, Ron Paul rejects everyone, Perry and Santorum sharpen their aim at one another, Bachmann gets an almost endorsement, Gingrich gets a very important Iowa endorsement, and everyone offers their own views on the Caucus and everyone else.

This is a time for leadership, not warm fuzzies. The future is at stake, and we may never get another environment with the country so prepared to challenge the system as we have right now. – Steve Deace in his endorsement of Newt Gingrich
  • Twitter of the Day:
Greta Christina
GretaChristinaGreta Christina

Not sure which is funnier: headline reading “Santorum Surges From Behind,” or the fact that Rick Santorum retweeted it.
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Trunkline 2012: Saturday Political Opinions and the Cinema Politico Movie of the Week: 12/3/11

Bookmark and Share  Saturday’s Trunkline 2012 offers you a , uh, eh, ahh, well I guess the best way to put it is a unique movie of the week feature along with the main news of the day involving Herman Cain, and tidbits about Newt, Mitt, on of the Rick’s, our presidents corruption problems, a preview of tomorrows TV news programming, the weekly Rpublican national message, and more

C-SPAN’s “Newsmakers,” the director of the Obama’s National Economic Council, Gene Sperling, is interviewed by The Wall Street Journal’s Gerald Seib and The Economist’s Greg Ip —- NBC’s “Meet the Press” RNC Chairman Reince Pebius, Obama campaign strategist David Axelrod —-CBS’s “Face the Nation”: Former White House press secretary Robert Gibbs  —-ABC, “This Week”: Rep. Barney Frank (D-Mass.),  former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum —-CNN, “State of the Union”: Reps. Ron Paul of Texas and Michele Bachmann of Minnesota,  Arizona Sen. John McCain and former White House budget director Alice Rivlin and former Congressional Budget Office Director Douglas Holtz-Eakin —-“Fox News Sunday”:   Sens. Kent Conrad (D-N.D.) and Tom Coburn (R-Okla.)discuss how to shrink the ballooning federal deficit. And Michele Bachmann gets interviewed.

  • White House 2012′s Cinema Politico: This week’s feature presentation is Crude Independence

First-time director Noah Hutton captures the change in Stanley, North Dakota, after a historic 2006 oil discovery. Crude Independence is a rumination on the future of small town America and a tale of change at the hands of the global energy market.…

It’s an odd and bizarre flick but it’s free 

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Little Birdie Chirps: Where Things Are At In Iowa 47 Days Out from the Caucuses

Bookmark and Share   It’s been a while, but with less than 50 days to go until Iowans cast the first official votes in the race to unseat Barack Obama in 2012, our little birdies are chirping and have plenty to say.

What’s interesting is our little birdies’ opinions on the race are just as varied as the voters the various candidates are trying to woo. However, there are two areas where each of our little birdies is in agreement—Herman Cain is all but done in Iowa, and Ron Paul won’t win the Caucuses despite what the polls say.

“Cain is at least third right now,” said one little birdie who considers himself a Tea Party sympathizer. “He’s probably lost 10 points in the last two weeks. If anything, I see most of the Tea Party people coalescing behind Newt Gingrich and giving Michele Bachmann another look. They like the solutions Gingrich is offering, especially the stuff on the courts. Plus, they think since he’s already so well-known, warts and all, they won’t get surprised by the vetting process like they did with Cain and they want enough time to find an alternative to Mitt Romney—whom none of them want.

“That’s why (Tea Partiers) aren’t rallying to Rick Santorum, because they’re not sure the vetting process has enough time with him and they don’t want another ‘flavor of the month’ before it’s too late to take out Romney. Bachmann is getting a second look because she’s been so strong on Tea Party issues in Congress, but she has to show the campaign troubles of the past few months are a thing of the past.”

Another very connected little birdie said, “The sex scandal has leveled off Herman Cain’s upward rise, but unfortunately it took his lack of basic foreign policy knowledge to permanently retard his progress.” He added, “The primary benefactor from the sex scandal was Cain. Supporters have foolishly rallied to his support with financial donations, but his foreign policy deficiency has proven to be his downfall.”

Another little birdie who has access to internal polling of Caucus voters said “despite calling hundreds of Republican voters each week the polling never showed Cain having anything close to the support these public surveys were giving him.”

All of our little birdies, staunch conservatives, were shocked and dismayed that Cain made it this far given where he is (or isn’t) on the issues. They also think Paul cannot build a large enough coalition to win the Caucuses.

“He’s got an excellent organization, but while other candidates have floors and ceilings of support Paul has an anchor,” said this little birdie, who has worked on numerous Republican races across the state over the years. “Paul’s support is what it is. It’s not moving, and it’s not going to move because of what he stands for.

Another little birdie agreed.

“His support has a cap, and although his cap has grown in this election cycle as people get sick and tired of our nation’s fiscal policy and nation building, many conservatives aren’t willing to overlook Paul’s lack of commitment to the Christian moral principles our Founding Fathers utilized to build our constitutional republic in the first place.”

Regarding Gingrich, our little birdies were split on whether he’s just the latest “flavor of the month” or has staying power as a frontrunner.

“Right now he’s offering the most substance and ideas, so he absolutely has staying power,” said one little birdie who is uncommitted in the presidential race. “But he’s also got to clearly address the issues in his personal life like he did that silly commercial he did with Nancy Pelosi a few years ago.”

Another little birdie said he thought if the Caucuses were held today Gingrich would win, but other little birdies remain skeptical the Gingrich surge is real.

“Newt’s surge is for real in the sense that he’s become the favorite new toy,” this little birdie said. “But the problem with new toys is that once you’re the new Laser-Tag there’s always a new Tickle-Me-Elmo around the corner.”

So where does Romney stand?

“If the Caucuses were today he would win because no one with an organization on the ground has emerged as a true alternative,” this little birdie said. “If Romney wins Iowa its game over for the nomination. He won’t be stopped, because he’ll follow that up with a massive win in New Hampshire, and then have all the momentum heading into South Carolina. If grassroots conservatives want to stop Romney, they have to stop him here in Iowa, and the only way to stop him is to coalesce behind an alternative with a ground game in Iowa. Right now the only options there are Bachmann and Santorum.”

One little birdie blamed his fellow evangelicals on why Romney is leading the polls in Iowa and elsewhere.

“Christians haven’t done their due diligence in picking their candidate,” this little birdie said. “People need to pick the candidate that has proven themselves in the public light to be a candidate that won’t bend to the political winds, who won’t yield to the establishment Republicans, and who isn’t afraid to not only fight for our economic situation but also for the social issues that will change the moral fabric of our country.”

All of our little birdies thought the most likely options for coalescing evangelical support late in the process were Santorum and Bachmann, but they disagreed on which one of those two candidates it should be.

“This weekend’s forum with The Family Leader could very well be a playoff game between Santorum and Bachmann,” an uncommitted little birdie said. “One of those two needs to step up and out-shine the other in order to clearly make the case they’re the candidate for social conservatives who want to stop Romney and don’t trust Gingrich.”

Finally, what about endorsements? Are there any that could persuade undecided voters down the stretch? Our little birdies said they thought two endorsements would matter, and those two were Congressman Steve King and Bob Vander Plaats of The Family Leader.

“Vander Plaats’ endorsement will have a major impact on the evangelical vote,” one little birdie said. “To retain respect and credibility, however, that endorsement will have to go to either Santorum or Bachmann, both of whom signed their pledge. Santorum may be the harder sell because of his endorsement of partial birth abortion advocate Christine Todd Whitman and anti-life Arlen Specter.

What about King? One little birdie who believes King will endorse Santorum is concerned King is waiting too long.

“He’s making the same mistake he made four years ago with Fred Thompson,” said a little birdie sympathetic to Santorum’s candidacy. “By waiting too long he doesn’t give his organization enough time to really help the candidate.”

Another little birdie sympathetic to Bachmann’s candidacy is concerned King may hurt himself in his re-election battle with former First Lady Christie Vilsack next year.

“He’s supposed to be one of Michele’s best friends, and she’s been saying King is one of the reasons she decided to run,” he said. “Now he’s not going to support her? Throw in his reckless comments about the women accusing Cain, and when you consider King is running against a well-known woman next year, he could have a woman problem in that election.”

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White House 2012′s Morning Memo: Tuesday’s Election News Briefing for 11/15/11

Bookmark and Share   While you were asleep, the political world kept turning and tried to cast its perpetual spin on reality.  So set the record straight with White House 2012’s Morning Memo as we bring you  Gloria Cain’s interview, Polls that have Newt soaring and Americans doubting Cain, as well as stories about the end of Rick Perry’s campaign, strange emails from the First Lady, the stage being set for the Supreme Courts hearing on Obamacare, the shaping of the 2016 presidential election, notes about the Abuser in Chief, and much more. 

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Iowa Presidential Candidate Power Ranking: If the Caucuses Were Held Today…..

 Bookmark and Share   This my analysis of what would happen if the Iowa Caucuses were today, and not my candidate preferences. I have yet to endorse a candidate, and may not do so. For my candid thoughts on each candidate as an undecided voter, click here.

1) Ron Paul (18%)

He remains the candidate in the race with the best combination of an excited base and quality organization, which is the best in the state. I personally saw his organization pull in over 500 people on a Saturday morning to a National Federation of Republican Assemblies event, and he was the only candidate with any real support there. However, the January 3rd Caucus date does not work in his favor because it could leave a lot of his younger voters still away for the holidays out in the cold.

2) Newt Gingrich (17%)

He could be on the brink of a surge here down the stretch, and the way he is running his campaign by being substantive on issues and taking the high road on his primary competition allows him to appeal to Bob Vander Plaats (grassroots) and Terry Branstad (establishment) types alike. If he can stay disciplined the rest of the way, and with Gingrich past history indicates that is always a big if, he will be formidable. Three months ago Gingrich lost his campaign apparatus to Rick Perry, now he has twice his support.

3) Mitt Romney (16%)

The ascendancy of Gingrich hurts Romney, because it gives those who no longer view him as a palatable champion a natural alternative, since those are also folks that may not be comfortable with any of the more grassroots-type candidates.

4) Herman Cain (15%)

He’s already peaked, gone supernova, and peaked again.

5) Rick Santorum (13%)

Every time he’s on the brink of a breakthrough someone else steals his thunder. Prior to the Straw Poll it was Michele Bachmann. Now it’s Cain and Gingrich overshadowing him. However, he’s definitely a candidate a lot of former Mike Huckabee supporters are considering, and he might have the second best organization in the state, so he will be a factor.

6) Michele Bachmann (11%)

She seems to have rediscovered her boldness since the last time we rated the candidates, but now she needs to re-establish her organizational footing.

7) Rick Perry (10%)

So far he just hasn’t sold himself to Iowans, and has already failed to make a good first impression. The overall race is so fluid that it’s not hopeless for him, but the clock is ticking. Here’s a question: Chuck Norris is the most outspoken Christian Patriot celebrity in the country, so why hasn’t he endorsed for president the guy that’s been his governor for the last 11 years?

Trunkline 2012: Friday’s Campaign Trail News Wrap-Up from White House 2012– 11/04/11

Bookmark and Share  Friday’s Republican presidential news round up finds Republicans rallying around Cain, new ads hitting back hard for Cain, Romney robo calling attacks on Perry, Santorum crying out for cries for values, Biden and Huckabee defend Mitt , while the DNC attacks him, how the rich are really Occupying Wall, Street and topics of Newt’s Gains?, Iowa’s Romney-Free Zones!, and operations in Occupy Shut Down Iowa Caucuses? arise. That’s some of what you will find blowin’ in the wind of today’s Trunkline 2012 summary of the campaign trail.

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Trunkline 2012: Tuesday Tidbits From The Republican Presidential Race – 11/01/11

Bookmark and Share    Newt gets one endorsement while others begin to contemplate doing the same, Iowa voters discuss the caucus process, Perry begins campaigning in Iowa and New Hampshire but through recorded television spots, Romney and Cain tied in Florida, Herman Cain gives Politico hit piece legs, GOP presidential candidates chime in on South Carolina immigration laws, Young Democrats go after Ron Paul and Democrats of all ages promise tyranny. That and more gets kicked up on campaign trail this Tuesday.

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Enter the White House 2012 Iowa Straw Poll Prediction Contest.

Win a WH12 mug!

Bookmark and Share    The only predictions on the Iowa Straw Poll that White House 2012 has offered are those of WH12 guest contributor Steve Deace.  I tend to have faith in Steve’s prognostication which was as follows:
  1. Michele Bachmann (21%)
  2. Ron Paul (18%)
  3. Tim Pawlenty (15%)
  4. Rick Santorum (13%)
  5. Herman Cain (9%)
  6. Mitt Romney (8%)
  7. Rick Perry (7%)
  8. Newt Gingrich (4%)
  9. Sarah Palin (3%)
  10. Thaddeus McCotter (1%)
  11. Jon Huntsman (1%)

However I see the numbers being just a touch different:

  1. Michele Bachmann (21%)
  2. Ron Paul (18%)
  3. Tim Pawlenty (15%)
  4. Rick Santorum (14%)
  5. Mitt Romney (9%)
  6. Herman Cain (7%)
  7. Rick Perry (6%)
  8. Newt Gingrich (4%)
  9. Sarah Palin (4%)
  10. Thaddeus McCotter (1%)
  11. Jon Huntsman (1%)

The main differneces being that Romney does better than expected and comes in a head of Herman Cain, and Sarah Palin does a touch better than expected.

But White House 2012 wants to know your predictions.

So I ask you to copy and paste the list of candidates above and replace those candidate totals with your own predictions, then paste those rsults in the comment section of this blog.  But to make things a but more interesting and to avoid any ties, we also ask that include the names of any of the candidates who you believe will drop out of the race within the next two weeks as a result of their poor showing in the Starw Poll.  I predict that Herman Cain will drop out. 

The winner which will be determined in two weeks, will receive the following excusive White House 2012 mug.

Predictions must be submitted no later than 6:00 pm (est).

The Straw Poll program is as follows:

Noon- Program Begins
12:15- Iowa GOP Chairman Matt Strawn delivers remarks
12:20- Governor Terry Branstad delivers remarks
12:30- Chairman Strawn welcomes all candidates on stage (press shot)
12:40- Senator Rick Santorum delivers remarks
1:00- Lieutenant Governor Kim Reynolds delivers remarks
1:15- Congressman Ron Paul delivers remarks
1:40- Congressman Steve King delivers remarks
1:50- Governor Tim Pawlenty delivers remarks
2:10- Senator Chuck Grassley delivers remarks
2:20- Congresswoman Michele Bachmann delivers remarks
2:40- Congressman Tom Latham delivers remarks
2:50- Congressman Thaddeus McCotter delivers remarks
3:15- Herman Cain delivers remarks

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Predicted Results of Saturday’s 2011 Iowa Straw Poll in Ames

Bookmark and Share   By Steve Deace

*Please note that these predictions are my analysis and not my preference. I will not be endorsing a candidate before the Iowa Straw Poll, if at all, nor will I vote in the Iowa Straw Poll on Saturday.

These predictions are simply based on the best data I’m privy to.

1. Michele Bachmann (21%)

She is clearly the favorite right now, but she faces a real test in Thursday’s pre-Straw Poll debate hosted by Fox News. Barring journalistic malfeasance, she’s going to be asked about signing the controversial FAMiLY LEADER marriage pledge, as well as her husband working to deliver those ensnared by homosexuality via Christian counseling so that they may live the lives God originally created them to live. How she responds to that questioning could very well determine Saturday’s results. If she has a Tim Pawlenty moment of uncertainty, like her fellow Minnesotan had when invited to confront Mitt Romney on Romneycare during the last New Hampshire debate, then the outcome on Saturday will also be uncertain. On the other hand, if she stands her ground then the mystery isn’t whether or not she’ll win, but by how much. By the way, in case you’re wondering where my predicted finish for Bachmann stacks up with past Iowa Straw Poll winners (keep in mind this year’s field is more crowded than past years):

1987—Pat Robertson 34%

1995—Bob Dole & Phil Gramm 24%

1999— George W. Bush 31%

2007—Mitt Romney 32%

2. Ron Paul (18%)

Paul’s support is pretty much locked into the 15-20% range. He has a devoted following that will show up no matter what, but it’s his ability to expand beyond that base that is in question. Nevertheless, if the weather is poor and/or Bachmann bombs the debate on Thursday he may not have to.

3. Tim Pawlenty (15%)

He just never caught on for various reasons, despite being the person who worked Iowa the hardest and the most. There have already been articles pointing fingers at whom or what is to blame for that, which is never a good omen. I believe he has to win the Straw Poll to justify hanging around given the looming entrance of Rick Perry and perhaps Sarah Palin.

4. Rick Santorum (13%)

He is catching some fire as of late, and is the best chance for a Straw Poll surprise. Although this would be far lower than fellow conservative Catholic Sam Brownback finished in the 2007 Straw Poll when he dropped out afterwards, Santorum can actually make the case he is picking up momentum given how low he’s been rated in polls and therefore deserves to stick around. I know people who are predicting he will finish ahead of Pawlenty. I don’t have quite the guts to call that shot, but I definitely see evidence of him picking up late pockets of support.

5. Herman Cain (9%)

I’ll give him a small bump courtesy of his endorsement from the Fair Tax people, who showed up in force at the Straw Poll four years ago, but other than that there’s little doubt his campaign has been done in Iowa quicker than you can say Christian Fong.

6. Mitt Romney (8%)

Romney’s finish is the toughest for me to predict, because there is still a cache of loyal supporters there despite his avoidance of Iowa. However, Iowans typically don’t reward candidates who do avoid them.

7. Rick Perry (7%)

There will be a subtle yet substantive write-in effort on behalf of the Texas governor/presidential candidate in waiting, we just don’t know yet how substantive.

8. Newt Gingrich (4%)

The former Speaker is planning a complete reboot of his presidential bid in September that he’s promising will be bold. We shall see if it’s a case of too little, too late. For now he’s a non-entity in Ames.

9. Sarah Palin (3%)

I think there will be some write-in votes for the former Alaska governor, but not necessarily as part of an organized effort by her fellows. She’ll make her show of force at the Central Iowa Tea Party rally on September 3rd.

9. Thaddeus McCotter (1%)

I think he’ll get a few votes from people who are either contrarians, or they just want to take advantage of the rare opportunity to vote for someone named Thaddeus.

10. Jon Huntsman (1%)

He’s the champion of the self-loathing Iowa Republican who thinks we don’t deserve to have the Iowa Caucuses if the Arlen Specters of the world aren’t welcome here. Thankfully, that’s barely 1% of the Iowa Straw Poll voting demographic, because the rest of them are too busy either working for or funding Terry Branstad’s lifetime appointment to Terrace Hill to take part.

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Iowa Caucus Power Rating For Week of July 25th

Bookmark and Share By Steve Deace

Please note these predictions are only my analysis, and not my preference, of what the results of the Iowa Caucuses would be if they occurred today with the field as it currently is and based on what we currently know. I have yet to endorse a candidate, and will not be doing so before the Iowa Straw Poll if at all.

1. Michele Bachmann (30%)

She is in better shape in the caucuses than the Straw Poll, where she is about a month behind in mobilizing her support into a show of force in Ames. If the Straw Poll were after Labor Day she might lap the field, but with the Straw Poll three weeks away she’s in danger of stubbing her toe there unless her campaign does a lot of things right. It will be interesting to see what happens to her prospects if indeed that happens. But for now there is little doubt she is setting the pace.

2. Tim Pawlenty (20%)

There is a sense on the ground from most people I talk to that Bachmann’s campaign is behind in mobilizing for its candidate, but Pawlenty’s campaign is way ahead of their candidate. I can’t foresee a scenario where Tim Pawlenty wins the Iowa Caucuses, because if he way outperforms his polling data in the Straw Poll to win it, the conservative outcry for a rock star like Rick Perry or Sarah Palin will become deafening. A potential Pawlenty victory in the Straw Poll will be perceived more as an indictment of Bachmann’s weakness as a supposed front-runner than a display of strength by Pawlenty. Anything less than a victory in the Straw Poll and it’s difficult for Pawlenty to justify sticking around. He will definitely out-perform his meager polling on August 13th, the only question is to what extent.

3. Ron Paul (16%)

I definitely think Ron Paul can win the Straw Poll. Pawlenty has the best organization, and Bachmann the most supporters, but Paul has the most devoted supporters. And in a fluid situation that might be enough to eke out a Straw Poll win. However, Paul lost a chance in recent weeks to make significant inroads to Iowa’s massive Christian Conservative base, and I don’t believe he can win the Iowa Caucuses without doing so.

4. Mitt Romney (13%)

One little birdie told me based on polling done by his candidate he definitely believes Romney could win the Straw Poll again if he tried. As I have said all along, Romney has a locked-in, almost cult-like base of support that can’t dissuaded no matter what. That percentage is somewhere in the 12-15% range. However, like Paul he has a very low ceiling, and can’t do any better than the 25% he got here four years ago. However, if Perry and Palin are both in the race, Romney’s 2008 total (or slightly less) might be enough to win the Iowa Caucuses in a balkanized field.

5. Rick Santorum (10%)

This is where the second tier begins. I believe Santorum will slightly out-perform his polling data, but he could do even better if he got more aggressive — especially if he tried to whisk away some of Pawlenty’s followers.

6. Newt Gingrich (7%)

I don’t think Gingrich is dead quite yet. He still has a chance to reinvent himself as the outsider — and it’s as the outsider that he’s had his most political success in the past. I also think Gingrich may be “motivated” to keep Perry honest once he gets in the race given what several people now working for Perry did to his campaign.

7. Herman Cain (4%)

A cautionary tale for future rookies: do your homework on your staff and the issues before you run for president.


Editor’s Note ; The  analysis generously shared with us on White House 2012 by Steve Deace is probably one of the most accurate assessments of the Repubican field in Iowa that there is.  Steve Deace knows how Iowa politics works and how it usually plays out.  For that reason, when it comes to the all  important Iowa Caucuses and where the candidates really stand,  we will be relying on his knowlege, extensive collection of connections, and his proven political instincts.

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Iowa Caucus Power Rating

Bookmark and Share   By Steve Deace @ stevedeace.com

Note: These projections are done based on if the Iowa Caucuses were today with the field as current constructed. Please note this my analysis not my preference. I have yet to endorse a candidate.

1. Michele Bachmann (36%)

She is surging now, despite the fact she’s still really just now getting off the ground in Iowa, which is a testimony to the overall weakness of the field in the minds of many voters. Barring a complete and total self-inflicted meltdown, I now can’t foresee how she doesn’t win the Iowa Caucuses if this is the field. She’s drawing rock star-like crowds. My friend Wes Enos, who was Mike Huckabee’s political director in 2008 and is with Bachmann now, says he never saw crowds for Huckabee like Bachmann is currently attracting. The key for her will be staying aggressive on the issues to solidify as much of her support as she can in the eventuality that Rick Perry and Sarah Palin enter the race and attempt to syphon off a chunk of her support.

2. Tim Pawlenty (20%)

I don’t say this very often, but I agree with Doug Gross. His comments to Reuters that Pawlenty is trying to appeal to all segments of the Republican Party, and thus ends up appealing to really none of them, are spot on. Passive-aggressive is no way to run for president. Pawlenty doesn’t have a lot of glaring weaknesses as a candidate (other than his somewhat bland persona), but he doesn’t necessarily have anything that blows you away as well. He comes off as the sort of non-threatening, generic conservative the GOP could nominate any year. The problem with that is this isn’t just any year. This is a year that conservatives are looking for the political equivalent of a UFC combatant with charisma. Pawlenty still has time between now and the Straw Poll to reinvent himself, but he needs to pick one issue on the minds of Iowans and be the absolute boldest out there on it. I’d like to see that issue be the issues surrounding the judicial retention election, but it doesn’t have to be.

3. Ron Paul (16%)

I was starting to see some evidence of a Ron Paul boom a few weeks ago, but that has really died down. He just doesn’t seem to be doing much in the state right now. Why doesn’t he have State Rep. Kim Pearson, a pro-life champion in the Iowa House, going 99 counties to talk about his pledge to veto any budget that includes Planned Parenthood funding? Why doesn’t he have his well-liked son, Sen. Rand Paul, essentially turning Iowa into his second home? Why doesn’t he have activists/authors like Thomas Woods holding townhalls and conferences in Iowa about the need to repeal Obamacare? The issue environment is in his favor, but I can’t seem to figure out what his campaign’s gameplan is.

4. Mitt Romney (12%)

Romney has been playing the low-key approach McCain 2008 strategy in Iowa, because he knows he’s damaged goods here. Looking at the latest polling numbers in New Hampshire, he might want to start worrying about losing the state again, too.

5. Rick Santorum (9%)

I think he will slightly out-perform his polling numbers because his overall conservative record is more than acceptable enough to many conservatives, and there remains a bevy of conservatives either uncomfortable with Bachmann’s inexperience or gender who still need a home. Not to mention the fact his high-profile Iowa field director, Nick Ryan, has his reputation on the line as well, so he’ll pull out all the stops. Santorum could do much better than this if he throws caution to the wind and swings for the fences.

6. Herman Cain (6%)

I’m not sure anyone has ever gone supernova in the Iowa Caucuses quicker than Cain has, and it’s pretty clear he’s essentially done as a serious threat when just as recently as six weeks ago he suddenly appeared to be.

7. Thaddeus McCotter (1%)

Most people haven’t heard of him, let alone formed an opinion of him.


Editor’s Note: Mr. Deace is a guest contributor to White House 2012 who through his site, stevedeace.com, will provide WH12 readers with upclose coverage and insights on the race to win the Iowa Republican Caucuses along with his weekly power rating and candidate weekend wrap-up .

You can folow Steve on Facebook

Special thanks to Jennifer Jacobs, the chief political reporter for the Des Moines Register. Ms. Jacobs  heped match WH12 up with Steve!

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