Christie-Walker 2012?

Bookmark and Share Okay. So I have to tell you right off the bat, I am not serious. As a New Jerseyan, I am so far surprisingly happy with Chris Christie, but he still has to see much of his groundwork through to prove himself. And although I like Sctt Walker, I would like to see the guy govern for at least a year before we run him national office.But both of these men have struck at the heart of the fiscal problems that confront their states and the nation as well. They have touched the third rails of entitlement programs that no one before them has had the guts to address. And they are saying to unions what few before them have said so flatly ..no.

Will the big union protests hurt or help the G.O.P. in 2012? Take the WH2012 Poll

As such, the two men have become hated, but it is clear that so far, more voters like them than dislike them. Those who consider themselves union members first, dislike Christie and Walker.But those who consider themselves taxpayers first, like them. With the tax system we currently have in America, it is sometimes hard to say whether there are more taxpayers than union members or vise versa. But at the moment there are some union members who realize that they are both members of a union and taxpayers. These people understand that you can not keep robbing from Peter to give to Paul.

Governor Scott Walker

These people understand that while their union brothers and sisters are red with anger, their states are drowning in red ink. And it is these same people who understand that Scott Walker and Chris Christie are doing what they were elected to do. Indeed a few thousand Republicans all across America in local, county state and federa offices were recently elected with a similar mandate behind them in 2010. In 2006 and 2008 many Republicans were booted out of officebecause they had previously forgotten that message. But now here we are with two men who are leading the way in doing something that should have been done long ago .. Saying no to big unions and special interests.

Governor Chris Christie

Doing this doesnt really make Walker or Christie special. It doesnt make them those once in a generation leaders that we always look for. It just makes them commonsense leaders. And that is really quite sad. It is sad that we have come to a point in time when common sense in our leaders is so rare that we are ready to quickly throw their names about for offices as revered as President of the United States. Yet some recent polls have had Republicans claiming that Chris Christie was their first choice for the Republican presidential nomination. Now I am not saying that Christie or Walker are not capable, but they are not yet proven. The last time we selected an unproven leader, we got freshman Senator Barack Obama for President.And Walker and Christie are also not alone in this newfound commonsense leadership. Rick Scott of Florida shares in it. Bob McMillan of Virginia shares it. Congressman Paul Ryan of Wisconsin and Eric Cantor of Virginia as well as Justin Amash of Michigan, Adam Kinzinger of Illinois, Marco Rubio, Scott Garrett and a whole host of congressmen and senators and state legislators share this same respect for basic math and commonsense.

So let us not rush to coronate any one person King or Queen of the G.O.P. Let the Chrsities and Walkers and Scotts of our Party lead. Let them prove that commonsense has a place in government and let us allow the Republican presidential nomination process to be a real contest. Let it be a real proving ground where we can kick the tires, test drive our leaders and make them earn our trust, our support, our votes. Let them prove themselves before we jump on any of their bandwagons.

In the meantime. Heres to Chris Christie and Scott Walker! Keep up the good work and remember, as demonstrated in the picture below of teachers protestingin NewJerseynot long ago, those trying to shout you down, are not exactly the sharpest tools in the shed. And another thing, the people of yesterday that Richard Nixon once called the Silent Majority are today called the TEA Party, and weve got your back.

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White House 2012 Joins The Steve Wark In The Morning Show

Bookmark and ShareWhite House 2012,editor-in-chief Anthony Del Pellegrino (aka:Kempite), will be a guest on The Steve Wark in the Morning Show, KMZQ, AM670, “Nevada’s number 1 station for talk”, on:

Monday, January 3rd, 2011, at 8:00 am (PST), 11:00 am (EST).

The discusssion will range from the shaping Republican presidential race to the top freshmen legislators to look out for in the soon to be sworn in 112th Congress.

Join in the discusion. Call in at 702-866-6700

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Wait a Little Longer

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Barbour Bides His Time

We all knew that Haley Barbour was not going to announce any intention to run for President before this recent election. Now that it is over, don’t get your hopes up for an early announcement. While Gov. Barbour is riding high after helping secure key victories in Governor races across the country, the tough task of governing and redistricting still remains. That means Barbour is likely going to wait well into the new year before making any announcement.

Mississippi, like all States, faces a difficult budget year. Unlike some States, it has to have a balanced budget which means tough decisions have to be made. Also if the budget starts to run in the red during the year, the Governor is constitutionally required to make cuts to bring it back into balance. Barbour knows that he is needed to do his job at least for the next several months in order to secure sound government for his State. He also knows that once he announces an intention to run for President, every issue in Mississippi will become a national one as his actions are scrutinized by opponents in an effort to weaken his candidacy.

Barbour can stand up to the criticism. That isn’t the issue. The issue is doing what is right for the people of Mississippi. If the Democrats or even Republicans allied with another potential candidate see an opportunity to play politics at Gov. Barbour’s expense, the real losers will be the people. They will be the ones who have to live with poor decisions made based on personal political feuding rather than solving problems. Barbour isn’t going to let his political aspirations become a burden for the people.

Expect Barbour to be making a lot more trips around the country solidifying support behind the scenes for the next several months. Unless a number of other potential candidates start making early announcements that force Barbour to either get in or stay out, it is likely that Barbour will refrain from making an announcement until at least early summer. Even then, it may only be in the form of an ‘exploratory committee’ until fall. That would give Barbour time to deal with State issues and see how the new composition of government in Washington is playing out before making any commitments.

Right now it is hard to guess whether the drive to 2012 will be accelerated because of the recent election results (which is the initial impulse) or whether the 2012 winds will calm a bit while the fight gets played out in Washington. Any candidate who comes out early will be forced to take stands on legislation in Congress – much of which will fail or be modified into garbage before passed (which is often the result of a split Congress). Tying your name to that carries big risks in the 2012 primary and then general election. Barbour, as a Governor, is particularly best served by staying away from Congress or being forced to take sides on cobbled together legislation. Once he starts getting tied to Washington bureaucracy, he loses some of his ability to champion his successes in Mississippi as a contrast to the failures of Washington.

All this is, of course, subject to what others do. If only light-weights or previous candidates (like Palin or Romney) are announced, he can delay an announcement until the perfect moment. If other contenders start to announce, Barbour will have to be careful not to wait too long as Fred Thompson did in the last cycle. If things go Barbour’s way, the 2012 fever will go down a little and he’ll get a year longer to govern, work behind the scenes and watch what happens in Washington. If, on the other hand, the recent election only fuels the passion for further change, Barbour will have a tough decision to make. If he joins the fray early, he risks losing the ability to campaign on his record as Governor as strongly as he could; but if he waits, the public may already be committed to particular choices. For Barbour, a little calm before the next storm is a better climate.

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Paul and Palin’s House of Straw

Bookmark and ShareIs Ron Paul a victim of his own success? Two years ago that question would have seemed ridiculous as Ron Paul was regarded as a fringe candidate. Last year, with the rise of the Tea Party he had long been a part of, the question would have seemed equally absurd as Paul was riding a rising tide. Just as the landscape of politics lifted Paul from fringe candidate to political sage in one year, it may be depositing him on the shores of has-been island a year later.

Palin and Paul blown away?

Earlier I wrote that Paul may not be the man for the job as the Tea Party movement grows into its own. I pointed out that a candidate who sounds like Paul, but has a fresh image might be the ultimate preferred candidate of the Tea Partiers. In that same piece, Sarah Palin’s vigorous attempt to cast herself as the Tea Party candidate was also discussed and her ultimate failure to win that position also forecast. It is still far too early to say for certain those predictions will be the case, but the recent straw poll in Virginia is showing something of that sentiment.

Chris Christie took the top spot, followed by Palin with Paul in third place. Granted the sample was far from scientific and the spread between the candidates was only 28 votes, but as a snapshot of motivated voters it has some value. Chris Christie’s win is less about him than it is about Palin and Paul’s failure to win. The campaign for 2012 is still a few months off and the heavyweight candidates are not yet dominating the discussion. So why is a 1st year governor of New Jersey beating out both the man who laid the foundation of the Tea Party movement and the woman who spends every waking hour trying to position herself as its candidate? That answer is what really matters.

That Christie captured the poll shows that the voters who are strongly active in politics are not satisfied with either Paul or Palin. The Tea Party has grown far beyond the fringe and developed into a broader conservative movement. That success brings with it not only greater numbers into the movement, but also their preferences. While the movement may share a limited government, Constitutional conservative vision, it does not have a shared vision of who best would champion that in 2012. Christie probably is not going to be the nominee in 2012, but his recent success sheds light on who might be that nominee.

Christie is a governor who cut spending and stands by his principles to get government under control. There are other candidates in the wings who can claim those credentials and one of them is very likely going to be the eventual nominee. Paul’s success with building the Tea Party is also his undoing as the movement moves beyond making a statement towards developing a strategy to win and govern. Meanwhile Palin’s 15 minutes seem to be drawing to a close as she was denied the top spot despite doing everything in her power to get it.

The Tea Party movement is maturing and becoming the kind of broad, conservative movement that lifted a former California governor to the Presidency 30 years ago. It appears to have outgrown Ron Paul and lost its infatuation with Palin as it searches for a conservative leader.
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Keep The Caution Out Of The Wind

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As Republicans prepare for what polls are showing will be big gains in congress this November, they need to heed a warning. Do not throw caution to the wind. A takeover of the House is almost a given. Despite Nancy Pelosi’s wishful thinking, all signs point to the GOP gaining enough seats to put John Boehner in the Speaker’s seat and most congressional Democrats are preparing for it as well. But with a whirlwind getting ready to sweep them in, the Republicans must not fall for false hope of being able to make a huge impact right away.

If the scenario plays out where the GOP gains control of the House and the Democrats keep control of the Senate the GOP may become the perfect scapegoat that Obama and the Democrats have unsuccessfully been trying to brand them as. The ‘party of no’ mantra has played out and the strategy has failed as Democrats enjoyed large majorities in both chambers and the American people brushed aside the thought that the Democrat majority was helpless. The Democrats are paying for that strategic failure now but if the GOP is not careful, the strategy could play out beginning in January.

A Republican House and Democrat Senate would almost certainly bring about a political and legislative stalemate. A stalemate that the President would be able to shine a spotlight on from his place on the bully pulpit. Although the American public failed to believe, and rightfully so, that the minority party could block anything it would not be difficult to point to a divided legislature and the Republican house as a roadblock if both parties and both chambers battle it out come January.

So heed this warning. Learn a lesson of over promising and under delivering from the Democrats. Understand that it will be a difficult and divided legislative session. Understand that the ‘party of no’ branding will be thrown out to the public and your owning he House will lend it some credence. Do not believe your own campaign hype and do not think that your power is a mandate and that your support will remain. Keep the caution out of the wind.

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What Now?

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As the polls continue to show Republicans gaining support amongst the voting public and the TEA party making surprising strides in many primaries the question arises – Where does the GOP go from here?

With many conservative TEA party backed candidates poised to hold seats in Congress is it possible for the establishment Republicans to welcome them and work as a cohesive unit to promote the shared agenda of less taxes, less spending and less government? If there is one thing the old guard and the new lions have in common it is the platform of less, less, less. The dividing point however is the confidence that the voters have in the old guard to stick to the task of doing so. It is that lack of confidence, brought on by the deficit and debt spending of the GOP controlled congress during the Bush administration, that has brought on the meteoric rise of the TEA party candidates and the ouster of established GOP candidates in primary elections.

With that lack of confidence leading a new group of conservatives into the GOP power grid, the Grand Ol’ Party must now fight to instill confidence in the independents that they are moving in that direction in order to be successful in the general elections not only in 2010, but to ensure it continues into 2012. The TEA party conservatives have found success with one simple message: Less taxes, less spending and less government. The GOP establishment must embrace this message and show that they are serious about these issues and cohesive with the TEA party candidates before the voters will have confidence enough to continue to give them their votes into 2012. But any relationship is a 2 way street and the GOP/TEA party relationship can be no different.

As the Democrats go into attack mode, unwilling and unable to run on their votes for the highly unpopular stimulus and health care bills, the TEA party must instill confidence that they are not the far right fringe that the Democrats and the media are trying so hard and spending millions of dollars to paint them as. Taking a page from the Glenn Beck rally’s strategy book, the signs and idealistic t-shirts must go. Whether it be a few far right supporters that take advantage of the situation to get out their message of hate or whether it be plants by the left put in the crowd to give the appearance of radicalism, if they remove the opportunity all together then there will be nothing to debate but the issues. The first amendment is the backbone of our society and I am not suggesting that anyone’s rights be infringed. What I am suggesting is that the main message of less taxes, less spending and less government must be the only message if they expect to compete in a general election forum. In a general election the voting audience is different. They can go either way. The TEA party activists must realize that any opening for the other side or the media to push their message that the GOP is being taken over by far right radicals needs to be eliminated. Their message can win. If it is the message that the public sees.

So what now? Although they have been battling each other in the primary races, the GOP and the TEA party must now embrace each other in order to win in the big show. The GOP must embrace the TEA party to instill confidence in potential voters that they are serious about cutting taxes, spending and the size of government. A confidence that they have lost. The TEA party must embrace the GOP to instill confidence that they are not the far right radical fringe that many believe them to be.

What is known is that the voting public is disillusioned and disappointed in the policies of the Democrats and the White House. Will the Republican establishment work with the new conservative influx of TEA party backed candidates and embrace their ideas? Will the TEA party tone down it’s non-platform rhetoric as it did at the Glenn Beck rally and remove the radical public appearance?

It is yet to be seen but it must be done if they both expect to gain the confidence of the American voter.

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Florida GOP Features Barbour. And Super Tuesday Heats Up

Bookmark and Share Florida is a critical state in both the Republican nomination process and the presidential election process. Having one of the four largest electoral votes in the nation, this makes Florida one of the two “must haves” in the Super Tuesday primaries of the South. So what happens politically in Florida, echoes nationally. So the recent decision by the Florida’s state Republican Party to have Mississippi Governor Haley Barbour deliver the Keynote address at their annual dinner in September is having a ripple effect in Republican circles.

Now that Florida’s Republican Governor became an Independent and is running for the U.S. Senate, the slot that would have normally been reserved for the state’s top elected Republican, came open and it would seem that Haley Barbour had did not hesitate filling it.

The move is a sign that Barbour is carefully and methodically lining up support for a run for President.

Since Charlie Crist left the Party and is now campaigning against the GOP’s nominee for U.S. Senate, Marco Rubio, it would be natural for organizers of the annual dinner to have selected Marco Rubio as their Keynote Speaker. In fact it would have been a smart move. Yet the Florida GOP has Barbour speaking instead.

Why?

Well as Chairman of the Republican Governor’s Association, when Charlie Crist switched parties, Barbour was in close communication with state Party leaders and he has remained in touch with them. So much so that he twisted a few arms to get this much coveted speaking engaging before Florida’s Republican elite.

The move was a smart one by Barbour. Although the numbers change based on the number of Republicans officials elected to office and population, Florida sends approximately 60 delegates to the Republican National Convention.That’s just a mere drop in the bucket when you compare it to the approximately 1, 191 needed to secure the presidential nomination. But of the 822 delegates that come out of the South, that is substantial in early counts. But what’s more is the timing of Florida’s primary. It normally takes place after South Carolina but before the bulk of the South votes for the nominees on Super Tuesday.

This makes the timing of Florida’s primary even more important than its delegate count. If a candidate does poorly in South Carolina, a comeback in the big Florida primary could provide a candidate with the type of momentum that they could use to sweep the South in the weeks to follow.

Barbour knows this. That is why he swooped into to that slot as keynote speaker. To get this “invitation”, he pulled quite a few strings with Republican state Party officials and apparently Florida Republican officials like what they see in Barbour because they jumped at the chance to have their strings pulled by him.

People don’t want to be associated with losers as much as they want to be associated with winners. If Barbour was a loser, the Florida GOP would not have just sent upplumes of white smoke that signal a decision like they do at Vatican upon the election of a Pope. If Barbour was not about to seal the deal with Party leaders, the Florida GOP would not have signaled to contenders like Romney, Pawlenty, Palin, Paul, Santorum, Gingrich and others, that a favorite son of the South is about to be tapped for bigger and better things.

Of course this has set contenders like Romney and Pawlenty, off on a frenzied attempt to contact current and potential Florida supporters to make sure that that they can keep the door open for their chance to win over the Party power hitters before Barbour is able to close the door on them and lock up Florida before the race even begins.

No matter what though, right now Haley Barbour isconstructing the foundation for his candidacy and creating the playing field on which all other contenders are being forced to play catch-up with Barbour on.

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