Trunkline 2012: Wednesday’s Word On the Campaign Trail

Bookmark and Share  Today’s Trunkline 2012 election news wrap-up includes headlines about Paul Ryan’s call to actress Stacey dash, Romney’s benchmark lead over Obama, Fred Thompson’s assessment of Mitt Romney’s foreign policy speech, President Obama’s promise to be nasty, voters trusting Romney on the economy more than the President, an Obama staffer helping Obama voters to vote twice in the election, and much more….

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Internal Polls Have Romney Ahead in at Least 2 Pivotal Swing States

  Bookmark and Share   According to Breitbat editor Mike Flynn, the Romney campaign has internal polls that now show the Romney-Ryan ticket ahead of President Obama in two important battleground states… Ohio and New Hampshire.  According to two tweets posted by Flynn  on his Twitter feed, Romney’s internal polls have him beating the President in New Hampshire by 3.0%, and an almost unimaginably wider margin of 4.5% in Ohio.

If these numbers are true, this would suggest that my own estimation of a Romney victory that will be much bigger than most people think possible, could be shaping up.   Especially if Mitt Romney is ahead in Ohio.

While I have sensed that this race is not quite as close as most polls indicate, my inability to totally discount the preponderance of public polling numbers that are out there has been leading me to conclude that in 2012, the G.O.P. may win the White House without Ohio for the first time in history. Part of the reason for that opinion has been due to the available polling data.  The other part is my knowing that President Obama is going to do everything possible to win the Buckeye State for himself.  Doing so would leave Romney with significantly fewer paths to victory.  But aggressive campaigning by Romney in several other key states, specifically Iowa, Colorado, New Hampshire, Nevada and of course Virginia and Florida, has led me to conclude that while Team Romney has by no means written off Ohio, they are actively working on Plan B…. the plan to win the election without Ohio if necessary.

But if these leaked internal polls are accurate, Mitt Romney is currently on his way to being able to carry out his preferred plan of winning the election with Ohio and the way I see it, if he can do that, Americans will be stunned to find out on November 7th that Romney beat President Obama by far more than anyone predicted.

If the Romney-Ryan ticket can win Ohio, that bodes quite well for additional victories in swing states like Florida, Virginia, Iowa, Colorado, and New Hampshire.  Given the make-up of Ohio, it is very good bellwether of the sentiments that exist in those aforementioned states.  Furthermore, a lead in Ohio would also indicates that Nevada is quite winnable.  Even more stunning is that it could be a sign that Romney is in contention for wins in other states like Wisconsin, which according to most polls is currently slipping away from the G.O.P. presidential ticket.  No matter what though, a lead in Ohio would significantly turn the tables on the Obama-Biden ticket by suddenly making them the ticket with fewer paths available to them to reach the magic number of 270 in the Electoral College.

Unfortunately for Romney backers, the reliability of this second and now third-hand information is not enough for us to hang our hats on yet.

While all campaigns conduct internal polls, they do not spend much time publicly talking about them or releasing the data and information contained in them.  By law, if a campaign releases any numbers from their internal polls, they must release the entire poll.  However, as is always the case with politics, campaigns can and do find ways to see that certain tib-bits somehow leak out for public consumption without being caught.  In this case,  no one can be sure of where or how Mike Flynn got hold of these numbers.  But if he did somehow get a look at the Romney campaign’s actual internal poll numbers for Ohio and New Hampshire, the news contained in his two tweets changes the narrative of this election by turning President in to the underdog in the race.

If the numbers Flynn released are actually from the Romney campaign’s internal polls, you can rest assured that they are accurate.  Mainly because of Neil Newhouse, the man who put those numbers together.

Neil Newhouse is Romney’s chief pollster and globally, one of the best pollsters around.   He is a co-founder of Public Opinion Strategies, a national political and public affairs survey research firm that has been described as “the leading Republican polling company” in the country and in 2011 he was named “Pollster of the Year” by the American Association of Political Consultants for his work on Scott Brown’s winning Senate campaign in Massachusetts.

At Public Opinion Strategies, Newhouse developed a culture and approach to winning that is practically unsurpassed as he successfully helped political candidates win tough campaigns and scored hard-fought successes in the public affairs arena for some of America’s leading corporations and associations.  Through his polling efforts Newhouse has been a master at taking accurate polls and using the information derived from them to successfully tailor the type of winning messages that have allowed his candidates to get elected.  So if Neil Newhouse’s polling does actually have Romney up by as much as 3.0% in New Hampshire and 4.5% in Ohio, chances are that the vast majority of public polls which are basing their models on outdated 2008 turnout models, are offering us a very misleading perception of just how tight the election will actually be.

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What Theme Should Democrats Choose For Their Convention?

    Bookmark and Share  Under the theme of “A Brighter Future”, Republicans are preparing to participate in a national celebration of their conservative principles that will culminate in the nomination of Mitt Romney for President but as Democrats prepare to respond with their convention the following week, an effective reelection theme seems to elude them.  Afterall, what appropriate themes could there possibly be for an effort to reelect a President whose Administration has cast a shroud of doubt and despair over the nation that is second only to the days of malaise brought upon us by Jimmy Carter in the late 70’s?

While Republicans prepare to dedicate an entire night of their convention to contradict the President’s “You didn’t build that…. Government built that” ideology, Democrats are left with having to come up with a competing theme that tries to reconcile President Obama’s past record of failures with a pitch for a better future that is based on forging ahead with the same failed policies that got to where we are today.

Currently the Obama campaign has adopted the slogan “Forward.” as their tagline.  The unoriginal and intentionally ambiguous tag line is a very uninspiring rehash of the theme Democrats tried to adopt in 2010, right before they suffered landside defeats at the ballot box.  Below is an ad in which Democrats briefly used the “moving forward” theme in August of that historic election cycle. 

It didn’t work.

Following that ad American’s rejected Democrats in historic numbers and gave control of the House of Representatives to Republicans by wide a margin.  In 2010 Americans did not want to move “forward” with Barack Obama’s policies and they made that quite clear.  So why Democrats believe that two years later, Americans would want to move “forward” with Barack Obama is a little hard to understand it makes it quite clear that with their convention fast approaching, Democrats need some help.

So we at White House 2012 would like to give them some help by having you offer your own suggestions regarding the theme that Democrats should adopt for their convention.  Just pass along your suggested theme in the comments sections of this post or post it on Twitter @ #DEMTHEME  .

We will put the 5 best proposed Democrat convention themes will be put up for a vote in a public poll here on White House on Thursday, August 30th, once the Republican National Convention has concluded.  And the creator of the winning theme will receive a free gift from the White House 2012 Campaign Store.

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Trunkline 2012: Saturday Political Opinions and the Cinema Politico Movie of the Week: 11/26/11

Bookmark and Share    With less than 40 days to go before the Iowa Caucuses take place, this first holiday weekend of the holiday season is one of those rare times when we see and hear little news coming from the campaign trail. Iit will also be the last weekend for such little political news to report on for quite some time.  But in light of this brief lull, today’s Trunkline 2012 focuses on the opinions being offered from our fellows bloggers across the blogosphere.  And as is the case with every Saturday, we also offer you our movie of the week at White House 2012’s Saturday Cinema Politico.
  • If Romney doesn’t energize his campaign soon, somebody might actually try to win this race besides him.”
  • “Occupy The White House” Now In Full Throttle
  • Another victory for “smart power”
  • On Reversing the Immigration Magnet’s Polarities
  • Ron Paul is nuts
  • Will Congress try to duck the automatic cuts?
  • Moonbats Still Blame Sarah Palin for Gabby Giffords Shooting
  • Site of the Week2012Twit.com :  Most social media platforms are only as good as those who use them, nut some are still better than others.  For instance, Facebook is going through a transition which is currently making it less useful.  Twitter is however becoming more and more valuable when it comes to gathering useful information without a ot of chatter.  2012 Twit is a platform that enhances the use of Twitter, especially in the area of political information.  It provides a real time analysis of the 2012 presidential election on Twitter and if you don’t know about it yet, you should.
  • Sunday Morning News Programming: ABC -This Week With Christiane Amanpour The deficit-reduction talks; volunteerism; and access to clean water. Guests include Sen. Pat Toomey (R.-Pa.); Colin Powell; Matt Damon; Gary White (cofounder of water.org); and Bill Gates. – Fox News Sunday with Chris Wallace: One on One” series of interviews featuring the Republican presidential field with former Utah Governor Jon Huntsman.Then, with the super committee failing to reach an agreement to cut $1.2 trillion dollars from the nation’s debt, how will Capitol Hill move to put our fiscal house in order? We’ll hear from two key Senate party leaders. Sen. Dick Durbin, (D) Illinois / Majority Whip. Sen. Jon Kyl, (R) Arizona / Minority Whip.  CBS Face the Nation: Authors Walter Isaacson, Michael Lewis, Condoleezza Rice and Kathryn Stockett.  NBC – The Chris Matthews Shows: A panel discusses American politics and whether talk-show host Rush Limbaugh used racially tinged language about first lady Michelle Obama.
  • File this under “I’m Sorry”: If White House 2012 is anything, it is honest, and it is that honesty which allows me to share this reader comment from Lou who writes;

“Love your site, but I’m finding the “typos” and missspelllings disconcerting. For no charge, I’ll review your copy before you post it. Isn’t it worth five minutes more to get it out “clean and sober”? I’m serious, guys. I’ll do it for no charge, in the interest of getting the message out without the annoying distractions. I hope to here from youse.”

-Lou F.

Lou is right and while I can try to offer excuses, any such attempts would be just that……excuses.  I myself have often found errors in the stories of others and thought to myself “how stupid”.  I recently read a piece from a prominent columnist who was writing about the flu season and wrote, “I hate how I always get dick”.  He meant “sick”.  That one slipped by (no pun intended….okay, maybe it is intended) the columnists, the editors, and the proofreader.  And they all get paid handsomely for their work.  Here at White House 2012, no one gets paid.  Ours is a labor of love and done out of passion for our beliefs.  However, finances or the lack thereof, are no excuse for sloppy work.  So to Lou and everyone else out there, I offer my apologies for typos, and misspelled words.  We may not be the New York Times but that is still not reason enough to not be better than them,……….which shouldn’t be too hard to do.

  • White House 2012′s Cinema Politico: This week’s feature presentation is Atomic Cafe.

This 1982 flick  provides a slight release of comic energy. The film recounts a defining period of 20th century history and serves as a chilling and often hilarious reminder of cold-war era paranoia in the United States.  At least it’s considered paranoia now.

Click here to see the Movie. Registration with Hulu is required, but it is quick, easy, and free. Like White House 2012

 

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New Poll Has Herman Cain Beating Perry and Romney Among Likely Republican Voters

Bookmark and Share   In a new Zogby poll that was taken in the three days following the most recent Republican presidential debate, Texas Governor Rick Perry, the man who rocketed past Mitt Romney as soon as he announced his candidacy and hs been the presumed frontrunner, has plummeted 18% among likely Republican voters and likely Republican primary voters.  Benefiting from this drop was not the former frontrunner, Mitt Romney.  That swing in voter sentiments went to none other than Herman Cain, the man who on the very last day that this poll was taken, shook the political world with his first place showing in the Florida “Presidency 5” Straw Poll.

According to the latest poll, Herman Cain increased his support by  16% percent since September 2nd.    In the same time period, Texas Governor Rick Perry lost 19% percent of his support and Mitt Romney picked up 3%.

For Herman Cain, this means that a star is born.  But it is important to remember that stars fall to earth faster than they rise and frontrunner status nows makes Cain a target.  A target of his Republican opponents, liberals, and the mainstream media which had already begun to abuse Cain before his win in the Florida straw poll.  So how long Cain can maintain frontrunner status is questionable, but one thing is for sure.  This news now breathes new life into a campaign that Herman Cain has twice considered ending.

For Cain, the results of this poll could be as significant or even more so than the Florida straw poll victory.  Unlike Presidency 5, the Zogby reflects not a state sentiment that could be written off to regional appeal, it is the reflection of Republican attitudes nationally.  That can provide Herman Cain with the ability to raise significant anounts of money and add strength to his campaign.

As for the rest of the field, they must come to grips with something which I have been stating repeatedly.  Voters from the TEA movement to your traditional conservative base, do not want politics-as-usual.  They want an anti-establishment candidate, the non-politician.  And they don’t just ant any non-politician.  They don’t want a Ross Perot-like moderate.   They don’t want some Kumbaya candidate who promises to “compromise” for the sake of moving the same, failed political agenda forward.  They want someone who will defend traditional American values, and enforce a pro-growth, liberty based free-market approach to our economy.  And they want someone who will do so not by promising to tinker with the failed policies. They want someone who will, as Herman Cain said in Florida, “alter and abolish” the failed approaches and policies of Washington, D.C.

At the moment that man is Herman Cain.  And it is that way because none of the other candidates have convincingly put forth a reform agenda that dramatically changes either the way Washington works or the failed and outdated policies holding us back.  All the other candidates are being overshadowed by the political reputations that precede them.  Meanwhile Herman Cain is discussing things as scrapping the current tax code.

But there are several important points to remember.  Herman Cain is quite inexperienced at campaigning. And while his lack of experience as a politician is a plus for him right now, at some point experience will be an issue and voters are going to want to know that Herman Cain has the know-how to achieve that which he promises within the very political system that he contradicts.

Point two.  Rick Perry may be don but he is not out.  The best example of that is Bill Clinton in 1992.

Early on in the race for the Democratic presidential nomination, Clinton had low national poll numbers.  He was running against Jerry Brown, Paul Tsongas, Robert Kerry, and Tom Harkin.   He lost in Iowa and while trying to compete in New Hampshire against  Paul Tsongas, the Senator from neighboring Massachusetts, Clinton got caught up in the Gennifer Flowers scandal.  Despite Tsongas having favorite son status in the Granite State, Clinton was leading over Tosngas in the polls.  Then when the Flowers scandal broke, he plummeted.  But when the primary was over Clinton still pulled off  surprising second place showing.

  • Paul E. Tsongas 33.2%
  • Bill Clinton* (24.8%)
  • Bob Kerrey (11.1%)
  • Tom Harkin (10.2%)
  • Jerry Brown ( 8.0%)

Even though Clinton lost, his ability to come in second caused him to be dubbed the Comeback Kid.  So Rick Perry  cn easily comeback.  Just because he faltered in the most recent debate does not mean he broke his leg and needs to be shot.  He can survive and live to run a powerful campaign despite his ” having no heart” remark which will continue to haunt him.

The third point.  Mitt Romney has been maintaining a consistent percentage of support that is in the mid teens.  This consistency means something.  It means that unlike all the other candidates, Romney has a solid base.  He has yet to experience wild swings in his poll numbers.  Such a fact means that Romney’s consistency as a candidate could prove to be a major factor that leads to his winning in the end.

The last and final point is the wildcard.  It is the opportunity for a candidate like Sarah Palin or Chris Christie to jump into the race and suck the air right out of the room.  It is also the possibility that someone like Rick Santorum or  Newt Gingrich turns things around with a series of events and positions and missteps by some of the top tier candidates.  Ultimately, the variables are endless and anything can still happen.  Did you think that Herman Cain was actually going become the frontrunner for the Republican presidential nomination with just a little more than three months to go before the Iowa caucuses?

The only thing that is looking certain, is the decline of President Obama.

In the same Zogby poll that has Cain ahead of the pack, 57% of voters disapprove of President Obama’s job performance, and only 37% believe he deserves to be reelected.

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Christie-Walker 2012?

Bookmark and Share Okay. So I have to tell you right off the bat, I am not serious. As a New Jerseyan, I am so far surprisingly happy with Chris Christie, but he still has to see much of his groundwork through to prove himself. And although I like Sctt Walker, I would like to see the guy govern for at least a year before we run him national office.But both of these men have struck at the heart of the fiscal problems that confront their states and the nation as well. They have touched the third rails of entitlement programs that no one before them has had the guts to address. And they are saying to unions what few before them have said so flatly ..no.

Will the big union protests hurt or help the G.O.P. in 2012? Take the WH2012 Poll

As such, the two men have become hated, but it is clear that so far, more voters like them than dislike them. Those who consider themselves union members first, dislike Christie and Walker.But those who consider themselves taxpayers first, like them. With the tax system we currently have in America, it is sometimes hard to say whether there are more taxpayers than union members or vise versa. But at the moment there are some union members who realize that they are both members of a union and taxpayers. These people understand that you can not keep robbing from Peter to give to Paul.

Governor Scott Walker

These people understand that while their union brothers and sisters are red with anger, their states are drowning in red ink. And it is these same people who understand that Scott Walker and Chris Christie are doing what they were elected to do. Indeed a few thousand Republicans all across America in local, county state and federa offices were recently elected with a similar mandate behind them in 2010. In 2006 and 2008 many Republicans were booted out of officebecause they had previously forgotten that message. But now here we are with two men who are leading the way in doing something that should have been done long ago .. Saying no to big unions and special interests.

Governor Chris Christie

Doing this doesnt really make Walker or Christie special. It doesnt make them those once in a generation leaders that we always look for. It just makes them commonsense leaders. And that is really quite sad. It is sad that we have come to a point in time when common sense in our leaders is so rare that we are ready to quickly throw their names about for offices as revered as President of the United States. Yet some recent polls have had Republicans claiming that Chris Christie was their first choice for the Republican presidential nomination. Now I am not saying that Christie or Walker are not capable, but they are not yet proven. The last time we selected an unproven leader, we got freshman Senator Barack Obama for President.And Walker and Christie are also not alone in this newfound commonsense leadership. Rick Scott of Florida shares in it. Bob McMillan of Virginia shares it. Congressman Paul Ryan of Wisconsin and Eric Cantor of Virginia as well as Justin Amash of Michigan, Adam Kinzinger of Illinois, Marco Rubio, Scott Garrett and a whole host of congressmen and senators and state legislators share this same respect for basic math and commonsense.

So let us not rush to coronate any one person King or Queen of the G.O.P. Let the Chrsities and Walkers and Scotts of our Party lead. Let them prove that commonsense has a place in government and let us allow the Republican presidential nomination process to be a real contest. Let it be a real proving ground where we can kick the tires, test drive our leaders and make them earn our trust, our support, our votes. Let them prove themselves before we jump on any of their bandwagons.

In the meantime. Heres to Chris Christie and Scott Walker! Keep up the good work and remember, as demonstrated in the picture below of teachers protestingin NewJerseynot long ago, those trying to shout you down, are not exactly the sharpest tools in the shed. And another thing, the people of yesterday that Richard Nixon once called the Silent Majority are today called the TEA Party, and weve got your back.

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Haley Barbour Talks About 2012 White House Hopes In South Carolina

Bookmark and Share Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour took what is clearly a step in the direction toward the starting line in the race to the White House. Today he conducted private meetings with Republican financial donors and Party activists in Greenville and Spartanburg, South Carolina.

Barry Wynn, a former state Republican Party chairman, tells The Spartanburg Herald Journal; He’s just coming through town to meet with a few people to test the waters, like a lot of other people are preparing to do,. Wynn added It’s very preliminary. He knows a lot of folks, and I think he’s trying to touch base with the people he knows and meet some new people. It’s that season.

Today’s meetings were set up by Chip Felkel, a Greenville, South Carolina Republican strategist and decades long friend of Governor Barbour and worked for the RNC when Barbour was a Mississippi Republican National Committeeman.

The recent meeting in Spartanburg was held in space occupied by the business owned by state GOP Chairwoman Karen Floyd. Joel Sawyer, the spokesman for The South Carolina State GOP said that the Chairwoman will coordinate many meetings similar to the one with Barbour as the nominating process plays out.

Barbour has been keeping his foot in the door of the Southern Republican primaries for quite some time now. Not long ago he was the keynote speaker at the Florida State GOP dinner. And last March he was the main speaker at separate state and county Republican fundraiser in South Carolina.

With January coming to a close, many perspective candidates who have not yet made up their minds about 2012 are moving closer to a decision and it looks like Governor Barbour is no different.

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