Newt Surges in South Carolina

Bookmark and Share   A new Rasmussen poll shows that despite nearly forcing another collapse of his campaign with left-wing attacks against Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich is experiencing his second surge in the 2012 election cycle just days before South Carolinians go to the polls to select a republican presidential nominee.

The latest Rasmussen Reports survey shows Mitt Romney holding on to his lead with 30%, but the real story is that Newt Gingrich who two weeks ago was at 16%, has pulled nearly even with Mitt Romney and now has 27% of the vote.

While Romney’s numbers remain virtually unchanged from two weeks ago, the other story aside from Newt’s surge,  is that even though a bloc of evangelical leaders recently voted to endorse Rick Santorum, the former Pennsylvania Senator seems to be wearing thin on South Carolinians as he backslides going from 21% to his current third place showing at 15%.

As for the remaining candidates in the race Texas Congressman Ron Paul holds steady at 13% support from likely primary voters, and Texas Governor Rick Perry remains in last place with four percent 4%.

According to Rasmussen, another 4% like some other candidate in the race, and  7% are undecided.

Adding to the good news for Gingrich is the fact that these poll numbers were taken before Wednesday evening’s, late night, semi-endorsement of Gingrich in South Carolina by Sarah Palin.

As good as the news seems to be for Gingrich in the short term, the Rasmussen poll does not show any significant signs of long term good news for Newt.

Nationally approximately 70% of all Republicans now expect Romney to ultimately be the nominee and Mitt continues to hold a sizeable lead in Florida, the important Southern primary that will take place on January 31st, ten days after South Carolina holds its contest.

All of this suggests that Romney is still headed for the nomination but clearly, he is not assured of smooth sailing across the finish line, and under the circumstances, if Newt can defeat Romney in the Palmetto State primary, it may indeed turn the nomination contest in to an entirely new contest.  At least until Florida.

Bookmark and Share

Newt Gingrich Turns Strong Debate Performance In to a Strong Campaign Ad

Bookmark and Share   One of the most powerful performance in the recent Fox News, South Carolina presidential debate came from Newt Gingrich when panelist Juan Williams asked Newt Gingrich if past remarks he made were racially insensitive.  Few knew that what Williams was actually doing was setting the stage for a moment that Newt Gingrich would turn in to debate history.

The intentionally designed, racially charged, question was meant to put the former House Speaker on the spot and confront a sensitive issue.  Yet Gingrich automatically dismissed the premiss of the question by simply answering “no”.  Then what followed that simple word was an example of inspired oratory skill  that was an eloquent and powerful recitation of shared, basic American principles which were stated with the type of ease, conviction, and forcefulness that could only be carried off by someone who is a true believer in those principles.  They were the principles of equality and personal responsibility, principles which Newt Gingrich used to defy liberal thinking with and to  defend conservative ideology with.

Now Newt turned that moment in to a 30 second ad which will air in South Carolina [see the ad below].

It is called “The Moment” and it takes the most powerful portion of Newt’s answer to Juan Williams’ questions and turns it in to a Lincolnesque moment in history.

For me, this is the first time I have seen Newt Gingrich’s campaign coordinate itself well.  It is the first time he has taken a positive event for his candidacy and build upon it in any meaningful way.

Up to now, Newt has failed miserably at maximizing opportunities.  This time he didn’t.

The new ad not only reminds those who saw the debate from which the Gingrich speech in the commercial comes from, but it affords those who did not see it, the opportunity to be inspired by his words the same way that the audience who heard those words live did.

Between the lack of time left in the campaign and the lack of money available to Newt, I am not sure if this ad will be seen by enough people to make the difference between first and second place in South Carolina, but it is  probably the best chance Newt has at making sure his campaign stays alive for even just a little longer.

For those of you who missed the debate that this “moment” comes from, below you will find the entire segment, including the question from Juan Williams which inspired Newt Gingrich’s inspired answer.

Bookmark and Share

Where New Hampshire Leaves Us

Bookmark and Share    The results of the Live Free or Die State’s first in the nation primary, did little to change minds or establish any great degree of certainty about the final outcome when Republicans gather to nominate a President in September.  Yet despite all the hand ringing, flavors of the many different weeks, sniping about who is to liberal, and general exasperation over the lack of perfection in the presidential field, I do believe that just as was the case in Iowa and now New Hampshire, Mitt Romney will be the Republican presidential nominee.  However, nothing is set in stone and as masterfully noted in a recent post by MDuminiak, there are a number of unique circumstances facing the now undeniable Republican frontrunner, Mitt Romney.

As I have mentioned in the past, there is a significant possibility for Republicans to see their first brokered convention since 1976.  In his post “Hollow Victories”, MDuminak cites several factors that could lead up to such an event.  They include the penalties which strip several states of half their delegate counts for holding earlier than allowed primaries and the proliferation of states that have moved to a proportional allocation of their delegates rather than the usual winner-take-all system that dominated the process in the past.

Even so, while right now it does look like there is a good possibility for a brokered convention , I am convinced that all the speculation will be proven wrong and by the time September comes along, many will find it hard to remember just how contested the nomination seemed to be, or that most of us tried to make it out to be.

Many may find that hard to believe, but if history is any indication, that is exactly the way it will be when Mitt Romney accepts the nomination and nominates his running mate.  To believe that though, requires an interpretation of exactly where New Hampshire leaves us.

 Mitt Romney:

Romney finally cracked that 25% mark that has helped many to question his electability as a Republican.  But it was in a state friendly to Mitt and that is seen as less conservative than many other states.  Nonetheless, he did exceed his 25% high watermark and achieved what can only be called a landslide victory.

But there is more to consider as Romney moves on to the next battleground.

Mitt has played it safe.  He has not offered a single bold initiative or major reform other than his promise to repeal Obamacare.  This has made it difficult for him to win over the reform minded TEA movement wing of the G.O.P. and nearly impossible for him to tap in to the general anti-establishment mood that permeates the electorate.  His lack of innovative, revolutionary, ideas have left many uninspired by him, myself included.   Yet all that Romney has carefully proposed can not be considered anything less than conservative.  They are just not things that could easily be painted as “extreme”.  That may not be a big hit with conservatives, but it does give Romney an advantage in the general election and that is exactly what Romney is trying to do…….run a general election campaign.  It was, and is a calculated risk that he decided on many months ago. when it became clear that conservatives were not going to have a single conservative alternative to Romney  to unite behind.

So Romney has been playing it safe, and for good reason.

While the rule of thumb is that Republicans must run to the right to get the nomination and then run to the middle to win the election, that old concept may not apply in 2012.

With Barack Obama accumulating a war chest of more than a billion dollars, Romney knows that if he runs too far to the right to get the nomination, Obama’s money may make it impossible for him to run back to the middle.   Obama’s historic spending could go a long way in painting Romney as the extremist who is more out of touch with Americans than the President himself is.

Then there is the fact that Romney is not exactly quite as condemned by conservatives as many would like you to believe.  Here is a man who for several years  priors to 2011, was elected the favorite conservative by CPAC.   In 2008, Mitt Romney was also the conservative alternative to John McCain.  And since then, Romney has only become more conservative, not more liberal.

This is probably why recent exit polling showed Romney beating all other candidates among even conservatives.  In many ways, according to the voters in Iowa and New Hampshire, Mitt Romney is the conservative alternative that conservatives were looking for.

Add to that the most well financed and organized campaign, combined with significant endorsements from people like South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley, and what you have is candidate who can buy,  organize, and win over all the delegates he needs to win the nomination.

Then of course there are all the factors working against each of  Mitt Romney’s rivals;

Ron Paul:

Ron Paul is performing far better than he ever has before.  Some may see this as a sign that his rhetoric is resonating.  And it is.  But not with Republicans.

While Republicans agree with much, if not all of Paul’s fiscal ideas and platitudes about the Constitution, they know that he is really not quite as unique as some of his worshippers think he is.  Many Republicans understand that Paul is more rhetoric than action and that when it comes to foreign policy and national defense, he is just irresponsible.  This is why polling, including exit polls from both the Iowa Caucus and the New Hampshire Primary, show :

a).- Ron Paul losses among self identified Republicans.

 b).- Ron Paul loses among self identified conservatives.

c).- Ron Paul, the mythological father of the TEA Party, even loses among those who identify themselves as TEA Party members and supporters.

Which leads us to the electoral irrelevance of Ron Paul.

Ron Paul’s inflated vote totals are arrived at through a unique coalition of liberals, independents, and youth who look upon their parent’s  days as hippie, love and peace, revolutionaries,  with nostalgic admiration and see it as the days when America had meaning.

Some suggest that we must thank Ron Paul for bringing these people in to the Republican Party.   Some do, but I don’t.

First of all, I have no need for liberals in my Party.  It’s bad enough that as a New York born resident of New Jersey, I am living among far too many Rockefeller Republicans already.  But more than that, none of these people are going to stay in the Republican Party, and none of these Paul fanatics are going to ever vote Republican.  They will either cast their lot with President Obama, vote for a third Party candidate, or not vote at all.  No matter which one of those three alternatives they choose, none of them were or are ever going to vote Republican.  Not unless Ron Paul becomes the nominee and that is just not ever going to happen.

So when it comes to Ron Paul, relax.

He has little to do with the G.O.P. and this is still the Republican presidential nomination we are talking about.  Will Ron Paul continue to get his message out?  Yes.  Will it change the results of the Republican presidential nomination contest?  No.

So Ron Paul is merely a distraction.

Jon Huntsman:

Huntsman did well in New Hampshire, but third place behind Ron Paul does not make him a rock a star and while he claimed that third place was his ticket to South Carolina, he better hope it’s a roundtrip ticket.  His 3rd place finish will not swing big money his way as it did for Rick Santorum after Iowa,  and with the lack of money that he has to invest in South Carolina, what you get is a candidate with no momentum and not enough tread on his wheels to get the type of traction he needs in South Carolina.

Huntsman like Paul, is now merely a distraction.

Rick Perry:

At this point, the only reason Perry is still running is because he wants to be there if the other candidates trip and fall as badly as he did.  Perry does not want to miss the chance to become the nominee by default if Romney or any combination of the others become the next Gary Hart and fall out of favor because of “Monkey Business”.

Perry is not even a distraction. He is just standing by and waiting to fill a vacancy that may never open up.  His only other hope is that the field stays relatively muddled until he can rack up a significant number of delegates from Texas and the rest of the deep South, West of Florida.  And even then he has to hope that fate provides him  with a brokered convention that make his delegate count important enough for him to have a big say as to who the nominee is.

Rick Santorum:

Santorum still has a chance to show some life in South Carolina.  Like Iowa, it is dominated by social conservatives and no one else has really  established themselves yet as the social conservative candidate.  On top of that, he now has money.  After raising significant amounts of money following his virtual tie with Romney in Iowa,  he could not spend it in New Hampshire because its primary was so close to Iowa’s caucus, that all the air time was already bought up.  That is not the case in South Carolina.

However, that is about all the momentum Santorum has left going in to South Carolina.  He was unable to turn his strong Iowa showing into a strong New Hampshire finish and coming in behind Newt Gingrich did not help at all.

So Santorum is not likely to defeat Mitt Romney in South Carolina but he could still emerge as a conservative alternative to Romney in Florida.

Newt Gingrich:

Gingrich is fading fast.  He really needed to at least beat Jon Huntsman if not Ron Paul too.  Instead he now goes in to South Carolina as an underfinanced, unorganized, bottom tier candidate. Yet if there is  any place he could turn things around, it is South Carolina.  Sadly though, I do not see him doing that.  Gingrich failed to ever accept the fact that although he may be an unconventional leader, there are some conventional aspects of a campaign that are so basic, that even he, Gingrich the Great, needed to employ them.  But he didn’t.  between that, a lack of structure,as well as a lack of a clear theme and message, and his experiment with attacking Mitt Romney from the left, it looks like South Carolina may be Newt’s last stand.

Even if Newt does surprise us all in South Carolina, I am afraid it is too late for him to do much with it.  Florida will be tougher for Newt and easier for Mitt than South Carolina, and with Newt’s lack of funds and Romney’s abundance of funds, Florida is where the inevitability factor may settle in for Mitt and help to dry up any remaining opportunities that his rivals might still have.

Does this mean it’s all over?

Not at all.

The game will still be played.

If  for nobody other than Ron Paul, the race will remain contested at least until Super Tuesday and probably beyond.  But the game won’t  be a very serious one.  It will mainly be talked up by political junkies like myself and rating starved talking heads who will claim Ron Paul is tearing the G.O.P. in half, and that he may go to the convention with enough delegates to change the Republican platform or determine who the presidential and vice presidential nominees are.  But such talk will be mere fantasy because in the end, Mitt Romney will reach the 1,128 delegates he needs for the Republican presidential nomination by March 20th or earlier.  And if he happens not to get it by then, he will do so no later than Tuesday, April 24th, when 231 delegates are up for grabs in the Mid-Atlantic version of Super Tuesday that will see the Romney rich states of Connecticut, Delaware, New York, Pennsylvania, and Rhode Island all hold their primaries.

Then, mark my words, all this talk about about how incompetent the Republican field was and how competitive it was, will all be a part of a hard to remember past, and no matter how much you dislike Mitt Romney now, you will not be disliking quite that much after he delivers his acceptance speech in September at the Republican National Convention.

Bookmark and Share

Live New Hampshire Primary Election Result Updates

286 of 301 Precincts Reporting – 95%
Name Party Votes Vote %
Romney, Mitt GOP 94,252 39%
Paul, Ron GOP 54,511 23%
Huntsman, Jon GOP 40,388 17%
Gingrich, Newt GOP 22,518 9%
Santorum, Rick GOP 22,292 9%
Perry, Rick GOP 1,668 1%
Roemer, Buddy GOP 898 0%
Total Write-ins GOP 788 0%
Bachmann, Michele GOP 341 0%
Karger, Fred GOP 331 0%
Rubash, Kevin GOP 246 0%
Johnson, Gary GOP 175 0%
Cain, Herman GOP 148 0%
Lawman, Jeff GOP 122 0%
Hill, Christopher GOP 103 0%
Linn, Benjamin GOP 82 0%
Meehan, Michael GOP 46 0%
Story, Joe GOP 39 0%
Drummond, Keith GOP 35 0%
Betzler, Bear GOP 29 0%
Robinson, Joe GOP 26 0%
Greenleaf, Stewart GOP 22 0%
Callahan, Mark GOP 18 0%
Swift, Linden GOP 17 0%
Martin, Andy GOP 16 0%
Wuensche, Vern GOP 15 0%
Brewer, Timothy GOP 14 0%
Davis, John GOP 13 0%
Crow, Randy GOP 12 0%
Cort, Hugh GOP 2 0%
Vestermark, James GOP 2 0%

McRomney: The Problem With John McCain’s Flip-Flop for Mitt Romney

Bookmark and Share   Back in December, White House 2012 took a look at John McCain’s expected endorsement of Mitt Romney.  At that time, McCain had stated that he would not endorse a candidate until after the Iowa Caucus.  White House 2012 anticipated that Romney might need to rely on the popularity of John McCain  which is really only limited to New Hampshire and Arizona Republicans.

Romney’s surprising virtual tie with underdog Rick Santorum may have been enough to upset the apple cart for Romney that it did become necessary for McCain to endorse Romney in the days leading up to the New Hampshire primary and in the end it will probably will have at most, a minimal benefit for Romney come primary night.

However, some of the drawbacks to a McCain endorsement that we noted back in December, were immediately highlighted by the mainstream media in the wake of the anticipated endorsement.  The main criticism was the hypocrisy involved in what is an ironic flip-flop for Romney by McCain.

At the time, White House 2012 even produced a video documenting the hypocrisy with clips that offer some of the reasons why Romney should not want an endorsement from McCain and why McCain shouldn’t want to endorse Romney.

Ultimately, the McCain endorsement will probably not help Romney much.  Romney should be winning New Hampshire primary regardless of what McCain did.  But there is an underlying risk that Romney takes by receiving John McCain’s seal of approval.  As the perceived moderate, establishment Republican, the approval of another perceived moderate, establishment Republican does little more than reinforce what is an image problem for Romney in this anti-establishment atmosphere.

To put it another way, given the existing mood in the Republican Party, whose endorsement would you rather have……..John McCain’s or Sarah Palin’s.  In my humble opinion, I think the Mama Grizzly would be far more beneficial than the G.O.P.’s establishment, liberal “Maverick”.

Bookmark and Share

Gingrich Predicts His Own Loss in Iowa and Bachmann Hopes for a Miracle

Bookmark and Share   After more than six weeks as the candidate with the target on his back and nearly 10 million dollars in negative ads against him, New Gingrich saw his Iowa poll numbers fall from a near 30% to his current standing in the mid teens.

The loss of just about half of his support has led Newt to admit now that he is not likely to win the Iowa Caucus but at the same time, he believes that a likely third or even fourth place showing will still it make him possible for him to remain competitive beyond the Hawkeye State’s nomination contest.

That assessment is actually true, but short of a first or second place showing, Newt’s future viability will rely on two things.  First, he must hope that if Mitt Romney wins, he does not win by very much.  Then Newt must hope for a third place showing.  While a fouth place finish will not derail his candidacy, it will make fundraising and the establishment of momentum quite an uphill battle as he moves ahead.

If Newt can fisinsh third or second and keep Romney from winning by a very large margin, he will remain competetive and may be come the benefiicary of an anti-Romney phenomenom.

If opposition to Romney is as strong among conservatives as many believe, victories in Iowa and New Hampshire could finally force the anti-Romney vote to charge behind one final alternative to Romney.  Newt is in the best position to be that alternative candidate but anything less than a fourth place finish in Iowa will make that impossible.

Meanwhile Michele Bachmann says “We’re believing in a miracle because we know, I know, the one who gives miracles,” .

At Oral Roberts University, Bachmann’s alma mater she told ABC ;

“We’re going to see an astounding result on Tuesday night — miraculous,”

Current polling has apparently forced both Bachmann and Gingrich to be unconditionally honest about the results tomorrow, for under the circumstances, Bachmann does in fact need a miracle to pull off a finish above 6th place.  For Gingrich, given the nearly 41 percent of Iowa caucus goers who remain undecided on the eve of the contest, a better than expected showing is not out of the question and as a Gingrich supporter a biased optimism has me still believing that he could surprise everyone with a third or second place finish.  However, when factoring in current voter trends, Newt’s poorly run campaign and lack of an organization on the ground, along with the undeniable momentum behind Rick Santorum, logic would dictate that Newt is right.  He will not win the caucus tomorrow night.

As for the other candidates, Ron Paul is seeing the helium in his balloon be overwhelmed as the weight of the oxygen in the atmosphere surrounding the reality of his reckless national security views and general unelectability brings his number back to the floor.  In an early afternoon speech to supporters, Paul reminded his fans that the Caucus will involve small numbers of people but the message they send will be a big one and he urged his supporters to stick together and be sure to show up at their proper caucus locations.

Mitt Romney spent most of the day trying to remain focussed on the one person which unites him and his rivals together in their desire to defeat in  November…..Barack Obama.  That focus was designed to play on the perception that he is the one Republican who has the best chance of actually being the one who can defeat Obama.  The hope there is that as Romney solidifies his frontrunner status in Iowa, there is a good chance that the large undecided bloc of voters will break in his favor and provide him not only with a win, but a bigger than expected win that could make it  possible to wrap up the nomination sooner rather than later.

Rick Perry, the wildcard going in to tomorrow night, spent his time on the campaign trail trying to make sure that his supporters don’t jump ship and while trying to also give those caught up in the surge for Rick Santorum  reason to think twice about actually casting their ballots for the wrong Rick.  A new Perry ad attacks Santorum for his willingness to defend pork barrel spending.

Perry goes in to tomorrow night as the spoiler.  Between his heavy ad buy and a good deal of retail political campaigning in Iowa, he remains the one candidate left who could perform better than expected and could benefit from a surge that has gone undetected by the polls.  The strength of such an undetected surge will not be enough to allow Perry to finish in one the top two or three positions, but he could pull the type of numbers that may prevent people like Sanoturm and Gingrich from outpolling Ron Paul.

Bookmark and Share

As I Asked Before, Does It Make Sense to Endorse the People You Want to Run Against?

Bookmark and Share    Last week I was criticized for criticizing now former Republican presidential candidate Gary Johnson for endorsing Ron Paul for the Republican presidential nomination while at the same time seeking the Libertarian presidential nomination.  I made a bit of a stink about the stupidity of endorsing the candidacy of someone who you intend to oppose.

As it turned out, when Johnson made it official that he was changing his Party registration from Republican to Libertarian, dropping his bid for the G.O.P. presidential nomination, and seeking the Libertarian Party’s nomination, he did not come right out and endorse Ron Paul.  That made sense.

However, this week, one day before the Iowa Caucuses, Gary Johnson lived up to expectations and came out with the following statement.

“While Ron Paul and I are both libertarians, we don’t necessarily agree on every single issue.

However, on the overriding issues of restoring our economy by cutting out-of-control spending and the need to get back to Constitutional principles in our government, Ron Paul and I are in lock-step.”

….I am hopeful that in urging my supporters in Iowa to vote for Ron Paul in the coming caucuses, a victory for the principles we share can be won.”

Thank you Gary Johnson.

Thanks for redeeming me and my previous post on this topic.  You have helped make my questions more relevant than ever and it is my greatest hope that you will in eventually  decide whether you want to be President or whether you want Ron Paul to be President. Once you make that decision, maybe you will finally be able to do a little good for either yourself or Ron Paul.  Until then you are  just being a fool and playing us for fools.

Bookmark and Share

Why I Am Endorsing Newt Gingrich for President

Bookmark and Share    This country is in trouble and bold leadership is needed. As someone that has had the privilege to vet these candidates as closely as just about anybody else has, I’ve come to the conclusion there are several good, Christian people running that most years I would vote for.

However, this isn’t most years.

Sadly, there are only two candidates offering a real means by which to actually undo that which the Left has done to this country for the past 50 years, and not just conservative platitudes. One of those candidates is Ron Paul, but his foreign policy is naive at best and reckless at worst. The other is Newt Gingrich, who has campaigned on what I believe is the most important issue facing us as a people—the loss of the rule of law.

The Left has used unelected judges and judicial oligarchy to reinvent the American way of life, from secularism to the loss of the sanctity of life, to the redefining of marriage, the confiscation of private property, and the granting of imaginary rights. There is an entire chapter of my new book devoted to the need for conservatives and Christians to confront judicial oligarchy once and for all. I have spent the past two years of my radio program educating my audience on this issue, and was a vocal proponent of Iowa’s historic judicial retention election last year, and Newt’s assistance with that effort was vital.

After offering every candidate in the race the chance to show they understand the gravity of this issue, Gingrich is the only one who has demonstrated he does, and can also use the bully pulpit of the presidency to educate Americans on the need to return to the rule of law.

I understand Newt has taken positions and done things in his personal life I do not agree with, but to his credit he has come on my radio program and been very transparent about those things, and has shown humility and a willingness to be transparent in the process.

He has signed the Personhood Pledge I advocated for. He has offered one of the most articulate defenses of marriage and the family I have ever read from a candidate. He has agreed to never sign a budget into law that includes a plug nickel for an abortion provider. He has agreed to seek personhood legislation and a stronger defense of marriage act that would limit the judicial oligarchs’ ability to legislate from the bench.

With these steps he has shown the leadership this country desperately needs. Electing another Obamney from the ruling class changes nothing. Electing another nice conservative with no proven ability to govern or a killer instinct to take on the system changes nothing, even if it makes us all feel warm and fuzzy inside.

This is a time for leadership, not warm fuzzies. The future is at stake, and we may never get another environment with the country so prepared to challenge the system as we have right now.

I suppose I could stay silent and let the process run its course, as many other so-called leaders are doing, so as to not worry about alienating some of my fellow believers by making this decision. But then I’d have to look my children in the eye years from now and explain to them why I stood by and said nothing when I had the chance, as more hackneyed Obamneys finish off what’s left of the greatest country God has ever shed His grace upon.

I’m willing to take full responsibility for this decision, just as I hope those that have chosen to support other candidates who themselves have fatal flaws are willing to do the same. It is my hope the other Republican candidates will follow Gingrich’s bold leadership in providing the country a true alternative to President Obama.

It is my prayer that next year that for once we actually have something to vote for, and not just something to vote against. I am making this endorsement in the hopes that will be the case. Sometimes the most broken people are the ones God does the most tremendous work through. I know that has been true in my life.

Bookmark and Share

If It Were Up To Republicans, Ron Paul Would Still Be a Second Tier Candidate

Bookmark and Share   Ron Paul’s recent surge to the front of the pack certainly makes this an exciting time for those who subscribe to his rhetoric and feel that his lack of actual accomplishments makes him an ideal President.  It’s also an exciting time for those who are simply fed up and looking for a way to register a significant protest vote against the system ans politics in general.  But for true conservative Republicans, Paul’s rise in recent Iowa polling is little more than a means of assuring the reelection of President Barack Obama and if left up to them, Ron Paul would still be lumped together with names like Jon Huntsman, Buddy Roemer, and Michele Bachmann in the bottom third of the Republican presidential field.

However, in states like Iowa, and even New Hampshire, the Republican presidential nominee is not chosen just by Republicans.

According to state Party rules governing the Iowa Caucus and several other state nominating contests, only registered Republicans in the state of Iowa can participate in the Republican caucus but individuals registered as Independents or affiliated with other parties, may switch their Party affiliation at the caucus site and cast their vote for the Republican candidate of their choice.  In other words, a non-affiliated voter or a liberal Democrat can walk in out of the snow, change their Party registration,  and vote for Ron Paul.

For some, the opportunity for people of any political affiliation to vote in a partisan primary or caucus is a good thing, and seems logical, but as a proud partisan conservative Republican, I can tell you that it is not.

For the record, while I am an American first and foremost, I must admit that I am a proud and devout, partisan conservative Republican.  My committment to the Party is based on ideology, and I am often not the most politically popular person in the Party because I am often at at odds with many of  its leaders who I believe spend most of their time playing politics and forsaking our conservative based ideology for political expediency.

That stated, I defend my ideological partisanship on the grounds that it is my deep conviction that ultimately, the conservative-Republican ideology is the best thing for America.  So my political partisanship goes hand in hand with my love of country and I do not separate the two.  That’s why I have never supported so-called open primary or caucus contests that allow people of opposing ideologies to choose the nominee that represents  my beliefs and Party.

The way I see it, as a conservative, why should I have the ability to pick the liberal nominee?  If  I had the chance to do that in 2008, I would have done my best to make sure that Dennis Kucinich won the Democratic presidential nomination for President.  Kucinich would have been a sure loser for liberals.

I am of the opinion that if Republicans and Democrats, or for that matter Libertarians, are to nominate the candidate that best represents their beliefs and can be the strongest one to represent their Party, then those who subscribe to the ideologies represented by those parties should be responsible for deciding who represents that Party.  In some ways, these open contests make about as much sense as us opening up the general presidential election to the citizens of other nations.  Which by the way, is not so unfathomable when you consider the lengths to which Democrats are trying to go  in with legislative initiatives designed at specifically making  it possible for illegal immigrants to vote.

Now some of you may be saying that I am blowing this all out of proportion.  Some may even suggest that crediting Ron Paul’s predicted success in Iowa to the opportunity for independents and Democrats to vote in their Caucus is overstated.  To them I must ask…………are you that stupid!!?

One need not look very hard to find that my assertion about the effect of independents and Democrats is true.

A recent American Research Group poll of  Iowa voters makes the case that if left up to Republicans, Ron Paul would not be a real contender.

According to ARG, among Republicans who intend to vote in the Iowa Caucus, Mitt Romney leads with 23% and he is followed by Newt Gingrich who comes in at 19%.

As for Ron Paul, strictly among Republicans, he pulls 12% of the vote which leaves him tied with Rick Santorum.

Among Republicans:

  • Mitt Romney 23%
  • Newt Gingrich 19%
  • Rick Santorum 12%
  • Ron Paul 12%
  • Michele Bachmann 9%
  • Rick Perry 8%
  • Jon Huntsman 6%
  • Buddy Roemer 1%
  • Other 1%
  • Undecided 9%

In the same poll, a deeper look at Iowa Republicans that breaks them down along TEA Party lines finds that Ron Paul does a little better among those voters most focussed on a limited and more constitutional government but not by much.   Ron Paul receives a 16% share of the vote from them,  but that is 9% behind Gingrich and 10% behind Mitt Romney.

Among Tea Party Supporters

  • Mitt Romney 26%
  • Newt Gingrich 25%
  • Ron Paul 16%
  • Michele Bachmann 10%
  • Rick Perry 9%
  • Rick Santorum 7%
  • Jon Huntsman 0%
  • Buddy Roemer 0%
  • Other 0%
  • Undecided 7%

In fact, the only segment of Iowa residents who Ron Paul gets a majority of the vote from in the “Republican” Iowa Caucus are Independents.  Among them, Paul polls 30% of the vote, 8% more than Romney, and 18% more than Newt Gingrich.

Among Independents

  • Ron Paul 30%
  • Mitt Romney 22%
  • Newt Gingrich 12%
  • Rick Perry 11%
  • Michele Bachmann 6%
  • Rick Santorum 6%
  • Jon Huntsman 6%
  • Buddy Roemer 0%
  • Other 1%
  • Undecided 9%

If that is not enough to convince you of the undue influence that non-Republican entities are having on the Republican Caucus in Iowa, maybe you will believe it coming from Ron Paul’s own people?

Back in March of 2011, the hero worshippers behind the propaganda based website entitled The Daily Paul, posted a call to arms entitled “2012 Open Primary States: The key to Ron Paul’s Republican Nomination”.  It basically calls upon Pauliacs to sabotage the Republican nomination process and steal the nomination from the Party by asking Democrats and Independents to flood the primaries and caucuses of the 17 specific states that have open primaries which allow Democrats and Independents to vote without even having to register as a Republican.

The article reads;

“We must organize and put the strongest efforts in these states to encourage Democrats and Independents to vote for Ron Paul and capture all the Delegates of these Open Republican Primary States”

By the count of the author behind the plot, winning those states would give Ron Paul 874 of the 1,212 delegates needed to win the Republican nomination.

Fortunately for rational conservatives though, not only is that a substantial number short of the delegates needed, most of the states do not have election laws that allow for opposing parties to easily and blatantly circumvent the democratic process in the general election by sabotaging a Party’s nomination process and leaving them with a nominee who is the weakest possible candidate they could have representing them.

Additional good fortune is the fact that Iowa is one of the few state’s that Ron Paul is actually doing that well in.  Nationally, Ron Paul’s average standing in the polls is half that of Romney and less than half that of Newt Gingrich.  While national polls do not mean much to a process that is based on the collective results of individual state contests, that national average does accurately reflect most state polls.

In the final analysis, while excitement erupts about Ron Paul rising to the top, the truth is that such excitement is based on a lack of any real depth of truth, and thankfully, it is the G.O.P. which will still determine their own nominee.  Even so, I still think it is about time that state parties and their representatives rethink their willingness to allow the political opposition to influence who our own Party’s nominees are.

Bookmark and Share

From Us at White House 2012, to You on this Christmas Day

The White House 2012 family takes this opportunity to wish you all a very merry and blessed Christmas.

We would also like to extend special Christmas wishes to those who have and are serving in our armed services. And in that spirit we present the following video two special videos.

Christmas Lights :Thank You Troops and Veterans!

A Soldiers Silent Night

And this is just because like Christmas, no one can pass up adorable little puppies, so what can be better than combining the two?

Merry Christmas to All from White House 2012!

The Newest Ads Being Aired by the Republican Presidential Candidates

Bookmark and Share    With the Iowa Caucuses right around the corner, the time has come for each candidate’s campaign to make some critical strategic decision.  Including whether or not they should start exhausting their treasuries with expensive television ad buys.

While Mitt Romney and Rick Perry currently have some relatively well stocked financial war chests, others like Gingrich, Bachmann, and Santorum do not.  For them, deciding on whether or not they should focus on Iowa or wait to invest their money in South Carolina may be a close call.  If they lose the caucus and their money in Iowa, they may not make it to South Carolina.

So at least for now, many of the campaigns have decided to move ahead with what for some are introductory ads in Iowa.  Candidates like Mitt Romney and Rick Perry have even decided to go a step further and start airing ads in some of the battleground states that will follow Iowa.

Whatever their decisions, time is running out and now is when their strategies must really start going in to effect and the initial ads they put out help give us a look at those so strategies.  For that reason, White House 2012 presents to you the candidate’s most recent ads:

This Perry spot is well done and goes a long way in making good use of the debate blunder which all but derailed his campaign. With Rick Perry, at this stage in the game, no one ad can really turn things around for him. He needs to run the type of spots that reintroduces himself to voters and creates the impression of a competent, likable, down to earth guy, who is in touch with core conservative values and able to advance those values in government. Which is exactly why Perry has spent a significant amount of money running several different ad, before most other candidates even ran one. So while I won’t grade each of the Perry ads below, I will grade the accumulated effect of the string of ads he is running all at the same time. All together, I give them an A-. Between the situation Perry faces and what he has to work with, together these ads do the best they can and each one is produced well and tap into voter sentiments effectively.

The following Perry spot is an exceptionally wise production that taps in to the all important evangelical vote in Iowa. And while racking up points for himself from voters with this ad, he also takes a few points away from Mitt Romney among them. Without ever mentioning Mitt Romney or his religion, this Perry ad subtly interjects Romney and his Mormon faith which many evangelicals have a problem with.

This ad tries to distinguish Perry as a Washington outsider while at the same time addressing the issue of energy. The spot blends the two together quite well, but in the end, this advertisement is unremarkable and not very memorable.

Below is the first ad that Romney ran in Iowa. It started earlier this week and is almost identical to an ad he had already been running in New Hampshire. It is designed to tap into the key issue of the campaign…..the economy. It tries to do so by selling Mitt as a man who understand how the economy works and who has first hand experience in the real economy. But the ad lacks any real human touch and any sign of real passion. While Perry and even Newt Gingrich have ads that generate warmth and go a long way in ing a friendly, personal rapport with voters, Romney’s ad seems to be a bit cold and mechanical. While the message in it is a good one, the delivery is flat. I give it a B-

The ad below belongs to that of Newt Gingrich. It is the first ad he has aired in Iowa and in his entire campaign. What is most notable about it is the calming gentleness of his presentation. It is designed to take the hard edges off of the reputation as a polarizing figure that preceded his entry in to the presidential election. It is well done and succeeds at what it sets out to do…….introduce a Newt Gingrich who is in touch with conservative sentiments and seems surprisingly electable. Between production value, the message, and the surprisingly convincing, warm and gentle impression of Newt that it creates, I give this ad an A

The last ad up is Ron Paul’s first to hit the public airwaves in his 2012 presidential bid. It is airing in both Iowa and New Hampshire and while it has a certain bite to it, it really does little to convince people that his bite is any more meaningful than his bark. As the ad states, Ron Paul has been screaming about cutting the budget and abolishing agencies “for years”. And how far has he gotten? Nonetheless, the ad is fun and creative but with lingo like “that’s how Ron Paul rolls”, it essentially appeals to the same age demographic which most of supporters already come from. I give the ad a B.

Bookmark and Share

Trunkline 2012: Tuesday Tidbits From The Republican Presidential Race – 11/22/11

Bookmark and Share   Today’s Trunkline 2012 has word of doubt about how serious Bachmann’s presidential bid is, Mitt’s pretedning that he won tghe nomination, Newt picking up support in  more ways than one, Palin preparing to endorse someone for President, Russians giving Barack Obama the bird, and I don’t mean a turkey, and much, much more.

Bookmark and Share

Perry Tries To Reclaim Ground in Iowa with New Television Ad Buy

  Bookmark and Share  It may not be a good thing but there is no denying that there two critical elements in winning an election——–money and organization.  So far Rick Perry campaign’s has not demonstrated any great organizational skills but he has proven to be a prolific fundraiser and now we are seeing that money go to work. [see the ad below]

While there have been web ads produced and released, few campaigns have actually put those ads on television.  While web ads cost practically nothing to run on the internet, airing those ads on television can become expensive.  But in an attempt to regain some ground and establish momentum in the race for the Republican presidential nomination, Rick Perry has become one of the first G.O.P. candidates to run ads on network TV in Iowa.  Fred Karger was actually the first.

In the thirty second spot, Perry promises to create 2.5 million jobs Rick Perry promises to create at least 2.5 million new jobs.  He punctuates his promise by saying “I know something about that,”  “In Texas we’ve created over 1 million new jobs while the rest of the nation lost over 2 million.”

The commercial spot also taps in to the vote rich issue of domestic energy production as Perry states;

“I’ll eliminate President Obama’s regulations that hurt other sources of domestic energy, like coal and natural gas,” Perry says in the ad. “That will create jobs and reduce our reliance on oil from countries that hate America.”

The spot is a good one and if played enough times and seen by enough receptive Iowa voters, it can help to boost Perry’s image and at least establish a more positive subconscious impression of him in the mind of voters.  What will be interesting to see is if the new Perry television commercial goes unanswered by any or all of his G.O.P. presidential rivals.  Will one of them question Perry’s claims about his record on job creation in Texas, or will they allow his ad to allow Perry to reclaim the strongest argument he had going for him as America’s jobs Governor?

With 10 weeks to go before the Iowa Caucuses are held, the strategies that each campaign hopes to employ in Iowa have to go in to action pretty soon.  Especially since the week to week and a half prior to the Caucus, most voters will be more focussed on the Christmas and New Year’s holidays than on Mitt Romney’s Massachusetts healthcare plan or what was painted on a rock nestled somewhere in the property owned by Perry’s family.

So running relatively early ads in Iowa could be quite important and in Perry’s case it is probably the prudent thing to do.  With his numbers in  Iowa anywhere between 6 and 9 percent, he is currently far back in the field holding on to fourth place, behind Newt Gingrich.   That means Perry has to start to somehow bring his numbers back up so that he has at the chance for a top spot in the Iowa Caucus results.

One thing that I will note here is that Rick Perry is a much better candidate when he is scripted.  In this particular ad, Perry is confident, convincing and sharp.  That is in total contrast to his live, on the stump, off the cuff appearances in which he often speaks in ways that are choppy and halting and cast an impression of awkwardness on unpreparedness on Perry.  Such is the case in his past debate performances and during other occasions where a teleprompter is not available to him.   In other words, good scripted commercials may be the best way for Perry to go.

And that brings us back to the two elements that are critical to any victorious campaign, money and organization.

Perry has the money but he needs to spend it wisely.  That means his campaign needs to determine whether he wants to make a real run for Iowa where if he pulls off a win, will have some momentum going into South Carolina.  Or does he want to just let Iowa fall where it may and focus on winning South Carolina and Florida?

Another alternative is to invest just enough money in Iowa to force his opponents to deplete their own resources in Iowa and avoid an embarrassing showing there, while maintaining a concentrated investment of time and money into South Carolina?

Whatever Perry’s strategy will be, it will have to go in to effect rather quickly.  With 10 weeks to go and only about 8 and half or 9 weeks to really utilize, time is running out.

Bookmark and Share

 

Cain May Be on the Rise, But Romney Still Sees Perry as His Greatest Threat

Bookmark and Share    In advance of tonight’s CNN Republican presidential debate in Nevada, the two names that comprise what the media defined two man Republican race for the White House is, have issued new web ads.

For Mitt Romney it is one of his first attack ads.  Up to now, he has essentially been running a general election campaign which has presumed that he is the nominee.  But now, his campaign has produced a web ad designed to undermine what is supposed to be one of Rick Perry’s greatest selling points ……his record on jobs.  In the latest ad, Romney’s campaign points out that there are 1 millions Texans without a job, claims Texas is now suffering from its highest unemployment rate in 20 years, that nearly half the jobs that Perry created over the last 4 years went to illegal immigrants, and that unemployment has doubled in  Texas under Perry’s watch.  The ad starts and ends by comparing Perry to President Obama in the sense that both men are denying the truth about their records.

For his part, Rick Perry released his own web ads, which touts him as America’s “Jobs Governor”.  It begins with a Bloomberg News reporter’s voice stating how great Perry’s record on jobs is.  The rest of the ad uses video of Perry’s recent speech announcing his energy based jobs creation plan.

In comparing the two spots, Romney’s ad is more effective.  But together, both ads demonstrate how the truth cannot be established through statistics and that it is all a matter of choosing the metrics which allow you to make the case you want.

What is most interesting about this new series of ads, is Romney’s desire to focus on Rick Perry and not Herman Cain.

In recent weeks, Perry has plummeted in the polls and Herman Cain has skyrocketed, even to the point of surpassing Mitt Romney’s position in the polls.  Yet the Romney campaign saw fit to still go on the attack against Perry, not Cain.  This would seem to indicate that the Romney camp continues to see Rick Perry as the greatest threat to their winning the Republican presidential nomination.

Romney’s Ad

Perry’s Ad

Bookmark and Share

“You’ve Got Mail”. Chris Christie Fundraising Email For Romney Hits

Bookmark and Share    Hours after winning one of the more coveted endorsements that a Republican candidate for President can get, the campaign of Mitt Romney has fired oof persoanalized emails to an extensive list of supporters and potential supporters [see the email below this post].

The email makes a direct appeal for voters to support the Romney campaign with a financial donation. 

In his message, Chrsitie focusses on the economy and credits Mitt Romney as the presidential candiate who can fundamentally change the economy and reverse the past three years of the Obama policies that have failed us.

Support Mitt Romney

Anthony,

This is the most important election in generations. Whether we are able to fix our economy and
get our country on the right track will have ramifications for decades. We cannot afford to continue on our current path.

Mitt Romney has a life history of coming into struggling organizations and turning them around. Right
now, we need someone like him in the White House to fundamentally change our economy and reverse three years of failed policies. Unlike our current President, Mitt Romney understands the economy from the inside out.

Chris Christie stands with Mitt

Fixing the economy will not be easy, but Mitt has shown throughout his life that he has the leadership ability and expertise to lead our country toward a recovery.  Republicans should recognize the importance of this election and realize that if they are serious about regaining the White House, Mitt Romney is the only candidate to back.

I hope you’ll join me and stand with Mitt today http://mittromney.com/donate

Best,
Chris Christie

Bookmark and Share

Rick Perry’s Attack Ad Ties Romney to Obama. But Does it Help Rick Perry Any?

Bookmark and Share   With some polls showing Rick Perry in fourth place behind Herman Cain and even the doomed candidacy of Ron Paul, the Governor, is at least for the moment, on the ropes.  His immediate strategy is to attack the man  who many polls currently have in first place, Mitt Romney.

The ad is produced by the same young, creative wiz kid that produced Tim Pawlenty’s ads and it ties Romney to President Obama through the  healthcare plans Romney created for Massachusetts and that Obama created for the nation.  The problem is, the ad may not work as well as Perry hopes.  First of all, the comparison between RomneyCare in Massachusetts and ObamaCare in the nation, is not new.  The secret about the similarities with the two plans is out.  Secondly, like Tim Pawlenty, the attack is probably not going to help Perry very much.  When he was running for President, Pawlenty was the one candidate who attacked Romney the most on the issue.  Who can forget the waves he made when he coined the phrase “ObamneyCare”

While Mitt Romney’s healthcare plan in Massachusetts certainly raises enough questions about Romney’s limited government credentials and is perhaps what is most responsible for making him a flawed candidate, it has not been enough to derail his candidacy and as we saw with Tim Pawlenty, it is not enough to help others move ahead of the pack.  Furthermore; Obama’s Massachusetts healthcare plan has nothing to do with Perry’s own precipitous drop in the polls.  On the flip-side, it is not likely to be the cause of an equal precipitous rise in the polls for Perry.

Going negative this early is a sign of desperation.  Perry’s slipping popularity apparently has him trying to find a rung on the ladder that he can grab on to and lift himself up.  But this approach to focus on Mitt Romney.  Besides, at the moment, Perry has to go through Ron Paul and Herman Cain before he can realistically challenge Romney.

In the meantime, Mitt Romney is essentially running a general election type of campaign and building his own candidacy up without having to tear down anyone elses candidacy.  All that the new Perry attack ad does is show that while Romney is gaining ground, Rick Perry is trying hard to compensate for ground he lost.  This is not the way for him to do that.  And by the way, despite all his opposition to “ObamneyCare”, who did Tim Pawlenty endorse for President?  It wasn’t Rick Perry.

Bookmark and Share

%d bloggers like this: