Michigan Signals Real Trouble for Romney and the Possibility of a Long, Drawn Out Nomination Contest

Bookmark and Share    While polls do not reflect anything definitive, they do often provide a general sense of the people at the time they taken.  That being said, times change and in the next three weeks, much will.  But for now there are sure signs that Mitt Romney needs to finally begin campaigning for the Republican presidential nomination before he continues to pretend he is running for President in the general election.

The recent sustained rise to the front of the pack by former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich seems to be more than just the previous flavors of the month syndrome that we have seen, and even if it is, if you were going to pick a month to be the favorite flavor in, this is it.  It is the month leading in to the first primaries and caucuses and if you have the wind at your back going in to them, there is a darn good chance you will have a stronger wind in your sails coming out of them.  So in that sense Newt Gingrich is well positioned and if he can win in Iowa, the Live Free or Die State of New Hampshire becomes a do or die proposition for Mitt Romney.

On the other hand, if Mitt Romney wins Iowa, particularly by a good 5 or more percent, there is a good chance that he will wrap up the nomination early.

But polls indicate that at this point in time, that scenario is quite unlikely.  

Mitt’s numbers are down compared to Newt Gingrich who is currently besting him in Iowa, South Carolina, and Florida, and catching up on him in New Hampshire.  This all spells deep trouble for Romney.  As outlined in a previous White House 2012 post, if Mitt fails to lock up the nomination early, he may be in for a long battle that could go in to April or beyond.  The best and most troubling evidence of that for Mitt exists in  recent poll numbers out of Michigan.

Several polls now show Newt Gingrich beating Romney in the Great Lakes State, a relatively delegate rich state that Romney is a native son of, and whose name is greatly respected because of George Romney, Michigan’s former, popular three term governor and Mitt’s father.  In 2008, Romney handily defeated John McCain in Michigan and by all accounts,  he should be handily beating all his 2012 opponents in Michigan.  But such is not the case.  A recent Strategic National poll produced the following results:

  • Newt Gingrich 30.75%
  • Mitt Romney 28.74%
  • Ron Paul 7.47%
  • Michele Bachmann 6.32%
  • Jon Huntsman 4.02%
  • Rick Santorum 3.16%
  • Rick Perry 2.59%
  • Undecided 16.95

Those numbers may be close but it is what is behind them that is most important.

Almost a year ago in January, of this year, Newt Gingrich polled 10.2% in the same poll, while Mitt Romney garnered 24.4% of the support.  In less than 11 months, Newt has seen his numbers go up by more almost 21 percent. Whereas Mitt Romney has seen a rise of only 4.34 percent.  That shows that Newt is the candidate with the greatest momentum in Michigan and to whom the undecided vote is breaking for.  And for Romney, the Michigan numbers simply confirm what we already know……he has a ceiling of support that levels off in the high 20’s. 

All of this is bad news for Mitt and it makes it more imperative for him to now to try to win in Iowa.

If Romney can pull off a victory in Iowa, it will go a long way in taking away any momentum that his challengers may have.  And if Romney can’t win in Iowa, he must do everything he can to make sure that Newt Gingrich doesn’t win it either.  The last thing Mitt can afford is to allow Newt to increase the force of his existing momentum and begin consolidating undecided voters behind him in numbers to great for Mitt to keep pace with.  If that happens, Newt can effectively derail Romney in either New Hampshire, South Carolina, or Florida .  So if Romney can’t win in Iowa, he better hope that either Ron Paul, Michele Bachmann or Rick Santorum do. 

For Mitt, short of winning Iowa for himself, the ideal winner would be Rick Santorum. 

A come from behind win in Iowa by Santorum, will help to insure that the social conservatives remains divided in the primaries immediately following Iowa.  That kind of continued division would dilute the social conservative vote just enough to make it possible for Romney’s upper 20 percent threshold to be a winning majority.

All of this makes this Thursday’s Fox News debate in Sioux City, Iowa all the more important.  In that debate Romney can ill afford another $10,000 bet and at the same time, he has to hope that Newt is off his game and that Rick Santorum pulls off his strongest performance yet.   

The next debate will be held at the Sioux City  Convention Center on Thursday, December 15thfrom 9:00-11:00 PM/ET.  It will be sponsored by Fox News in conjunction with the Iowa Republican Party.

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White House 2012: Which Republican Presidential Candidate Can You Least Support?

  Bookmark and Share    While the most popular question pertaining to the Republican presidential nomination undoubtedly asks which candidate do you support for President, this week, White House 2012 asks readers which candidate they can least support?

Last week, White House 2012 asked readers how well they thought Herman Cain handled the news about accusations of sexual harassment back in the 90’s.

In that poll 37% believed that Cain mishandled the story while an equal number of voters believed that how he handled the episode did not matter because the mainstream media was not going to give him a fair chance anyway.

To take this week’s poll click here.  Let us know which candidate you think is least deserving of the Republican presidential nomination.

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LIBERAL DOMESTIC TERROR ALERT: Occupy Protesters Threatening To Shoot

Bookmark and Share   In the United States of America, political change is ultimately achieved at the ballot box.  It is a basic tenet of our civilized democratic society.  And while substantial change through the electoral process usually requires a widespread sense of discontent from among a broad cross section of Americans, there are those who are willing to try to circumvent the democratic process in an attempt to impose their will on all Americans.

This is a mentality that has been repeatedly demonstrated by President Barack Obama and the liberal Party that he is the leader of.   Since the left took control of government in 2008, under Obama, Pelosi, and Reid, a new federal layer of super-bureaucrats designed to override the democratic and legislative process has been instituted through an army of political appointed, unaccountable czars whose authority and ability to regulate the American people by avoiding the legislative process is unmatched by anytime in recent history.  It has been demonstrated by liberal congressional actions that have taken extraordinary steps to force unpopular legislation and profound changes to American life on the people by suspending and altering the rules of process.  At on point they even tried to pass the government takeover of American healthcare without actually putting it to a vote. It has also been demonstrated by examples of the expanded regulatory authority that various government departments have been given as they totally avoid legislastive scrutiny.

But now we have been handed evidence of unfathomable blatant calls for violence by the liberal minority in America who proudly proclaim themselves as “Occupy” protesters, the small but vocal band of liberal extremists and astroturfers who have become squatters in the streets of several our nation’s urban centers.  According to Arizona’s Counter Terrorism Information Center a flier describing “When Should You Shoot a Cop” is being distributed at the ongoing “Occupy Phoenix” sit-in that is taking place in the city’s Cesar Chavez Park.

The state’s official counter-terrorism site states;

 “The letter is blatantly anti-government and anti-law enforcement in nature.  It not only condones but even encourages citizens to kill any “government agent” (i.e. law enforcement officers), who in their perception violates their rights.”

Personally, as a “less government, less spending, more freedom, bleeding-heart Jack Kemp conservative”, I have my own anti-establishmentarian and even anti-government sentiments, but to actually draft a flier for mass circulation that “encourages citizens to kill”, is not just an example of extremism, it is antithetical to the American way of life, diametrically opposed to the democratic process, and simply criminal.  It is the type of rhetoric, propaganda, and actions that we have come to expect from thos who gave birth to the war in Afghanistan and the broader, ongoing war on terrorism.  Which by the way, the same liberal terrorists who now encourage the killing of law enforcement officials, vociferously oppose and even equated former President George W. Bush to Hitler for.  That simply belies my longstanding contention that liberalism is a hypocrisy based ideology that consistently contradicts itself and ultimately makes no sense.

According to the the Arizona Counter-Terrorism Information Center, the flier cites several examples of “illegal” search and seizure, sobriety and border checkpoints, airport security, etc… , as the type of reasons that would justify the shooting of  government officials.  The Counter-Terrorism site adds

“In essence this document states that citizens have the right and moral obligation to resist any action by law enforcement that is viewed as a violation of the citizen’s rights, and often-times resistance involves killing officers.”

The Occupy Phoenix handout was discovered by a Maricopa County Deputy Sheriff who was called to Cesar Chavez Park  in regards to an Occupy Phoenix disturbance unrelated to the handout.

As of the posting of this account, requests to ACTIC officials by White House 2012 for a copy of the actual Occupy Phoenix “When You Should Shoot a Cop” handout have gone unfulfilled.  However White House 2012 has been able to confirm that antiterrorism officials are investigating the matter further.   But a source in Arizona has described the flier to White House 2012 as being two pages and more akin to a pamphlet than a flier.  In a quick reading of the handout to White House over the phone, one of the most notable quotes contained in it include multiple references to law enforcement officials as fascists and at one point states that “You can’t resist a cop just a little and get away with it”.  And in what I find to be an ironic example of liberal politically incorrect sexist language, it goes on to articulate “He” will always call in more of his fellow gang members, until you are subdued or dead.”  It continues with;

“Basic logic is that you either let law enforcement officials have their way with you, or you have the right to stop them from doing so, which require killing them. Politely asking fascists not to be fascists has a very poor track record.”

Aside from the obvious despicable nature of this material, White House 2012, which is designed to specifically cover the race for the White House, addresses this matter because of the undeniable undertones that I see being ingrained in to the 2012 elections and specifically the presidential election.

In 2009, a cause which some have tried to compare to the “Occupy” protests was born.  It was the TEA or Taxed Enough Movement which liberals denigrate by calling those who align themselves with it “Tea Baggers”.  Nancy Pelosi called them astroturfers, mainstream media mavens like Chris Matthews and Rachel Madcow (aka; Maddow) have called them angry racists,  and big union bosses call them right-wing radicals.  But by 2010, these radicals who marched on Washington on multiple occasions and in numbers greater than the combine total of the all Occupy protesters rioting in the streets and polluting the parks across the nation, achieved historic political change.  They fought their battle for less government, fiscal responsibility, and constitutional adherence, armed with mailing campaigns, postcards, picket signs, and with permits for peaceful marches.  And they were comprised of farmers from Montana, office workers from New York City, senior citizens from Florida, college kids from San Diego and the men and women who have fought in actual military wars abroad and their mothers and fathers and sons and daughters.

When they were done, there was not a single call for shooting the police, assassinating members of Congress, or calls for rioting and on Election Day of 2010 they were responsible for one of the most dramatic shifts of power in Congress in history.  They did it peacefully.  They did it by leaving the ground they marched on cleaner after they marched then when they began to march.  And they did so the American way——through a process prompted by the passion for freedom and fulfilled at the ballot box, not the threat of bullets and beatings.

This is a stark contrast from what we see in the “Occupy” protests.  Protests which just yesterday the communist government of North Korea endorsed.   The push for change prompted by and carried out by the TEA movement was peaceful and purposeful.  The socialists and fascists behind the Occupy protests can’t agree on a message or purpose and they are anything but peaceful.  With hundreds arrested, reports of criminal activity ranging from rape to public deification, and now calls to shoot law enforcement agents, the radical liberal’s animalistic desire to be more disruptive than productive, harkens back to the active days of Barack Obama’s buddies Bernadine Dorn and Bill Ayers.  The leftist terrorists who made up the Weather Underground and conspired with such entities as the Black Panthers during the 60’s and 70’s.

Now, as we enter the 2012 presidential election, the same radical socialist inspired, leftwing elements and mentality that attempted to overthrow government by blowing up federal facilities during the early 70’s has risen to do the same in 2012.  Not content with their ability to simply give rise to their opinions and act on American ideals through well protected and defended freedoms of speech, they seek to disrupt, slaughter and achieve change through violence instead of the political process.

While such conduct may not be the official the methodology officially adopted by official liberal political organizations, the Democratic Party which is the umbrella group for all liberal organizations, is doing themselves no favor by adding their support to these radicals.   In addition to the fact that the  majority of the Occupy conspirators on the ground,  are dissatisfied with the liberal establishment of the Democratic Party because they are not Socialist enough for them, they are getting out of hand.  They are getting to that point which an MSNBC anchor called “that Kent State moment”.   A moment when political discourse became a wave of irrational tension and violence.  Of course the MSNBC liberal talking head who made that remark, meant as a good thing for the “Occupy” protesters.  But most of know that “shooting cops” is not the best way to bring about enduring change.  Now it is time for the President and his Party to begin to make it clear that they know that too.

If White House 2012 finds itself to be the only outlet that makes this flier that the Arizona counter-terrorist information center alerts the pubic to,  than our nation is in  deeper trouble than I suspect it to be in.   And while it may get ignored now, if the fascist, left-wing liberal radicals who are coordinating acts of violence are not addressed properly, there will soon be that Kent State moment and it will turn the 2012 presidential election in to a true a revolution——a revolution that provides the greatest  peaceful overthrow of liberalism at the ballot box that the world has ever seen.  In other words, the extremist dangers being inflicted on society are about to create a backlash, that will achieve nothing that the Occupy protesters c laim they want to do………..turn the United States in to one big labor union whose bosses redistribute wealth based on the Marxist motto, “From each according to his ability, to each according to his needs”.

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Trunkline 2012: Tuesday Tidbits From The Republican Presidential Race – 9/13/11

Tuesday Evening Election News Roundup: Treats and Tweets From the Campaign Trail for Tuesday, September 13, 2011

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Palin Likely to Announce Her Presidential Candidacy on September 3rd in Iowa

Bookmark and Share   Mixed signals continue to pour out regarding the still developing Republican presidential field and Sarah Palin, Paul Ryan, and Chris Christie remain the main names uttered to be ready to run for President.
 
In New Jersey, state political insiders as well as national political sources are responsible for murmurs about Governor Chris Christie being ready to soon announce his presidential candidacy, Taegan Goddard of Political Wire reported that House Budget Committee Chairman, Congressman Paul Ryan, spoke about the presidential race with Governor Christie for nearly an hour. Goddard further reports that the “two men shared a central concern: The Republican field is not addressing the debt crisis with anything beyond platitudes.” This report tends to indicate that maybe Chrsitie is not actually considering a run but it does tend to confirm recent claims by The Weekly Standard that Congressman Ryan is about ready to announce his candidacy. Some close allies of Ryan also make that claim.

Then there is Sarah Palin.

Palin has baffled me when it concerns her decision to run for President, but that is not the case with others who believe that the former Alaska Governor and G.O.P. vice presidential nominee will indeed run for President in 2012. On Fox News Saturday, Karl Rove made it clear that he is certain Palin will announce her candidacy around Labor Day. The same goes for Iowa’s Organize4Palin representative Steve Singleton who statesWe’re confident she’ll run, and we’ve worked to build that really strong grassroots base that you have to build for a candidate to be successful just in case she does,”

And a recent video put out by Palin called Iowa Passion [see video below] would seem to verify these analyses. As seen in the video, there is little else that this promo could pertain to other than a presidential candidacy. If nothing else, it is a sign that Palin is truly still keeping the possibility of running open.

I for one believe there is still a 50/50 chance that Palin will run and while I am not going to guess which way she ultimately leans, I will add that I believe if she does run, she will make that announcement on September 3rd when she headlines a major “Restoring America” TEA Party event in Iowa, just as the unofficial end of summer  allows for a focus on the Republican presidential nomination contests.

The only one of these three names that I am confident will soon announce their candidacy is Congressman Paul Ryan. I doubt Chris Christie will and while I am unsure about Palin, her “Iowa Passion” has me beginning to think she just might run. Then of course, if Palin runs, former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani has threatened to also throw his hat in to the ring.

If Palin does go for it, I will be in a very uncomfortable position.

Even before it is known for sure whether Paul Ryan will run or not, I have endorsed his potential candidacy. I have done so for a number of reasons. One of them is that I am confident in Paul’s ability to articulate a superior vision for the United States, can articulate an effective and inspirational Republican vision for the country while also offering clear blueprints and roadmaps to how he intends to apply that vision to government, particularly in the area of our economy and our growing debt crisis. I also believe he has the ability to campaign in a way that will attract enough conservatives, moderates, and Independents to build a winning coalition in November of 2012.  Given a fair chance, it will be hard for Ryan to win the nomination and the general election, but he is a fighter and has the potential to do it.  My support for him at this time is based more on my faith in him than his immediate cjances of getting elected.

But the awkward position I am in is based on the fact that  in 2006, I became a fan of Sarah Palin and by early 2007 I was participating in a draft Sarah Palin for Vice President effort. Few had ever heard of her and no one was more surprised by the fact that John McCain’s only correct decision in his entire campaign was the one to actually nominate Palin for the VP slot. Since then, although Palin has not disappointed me in any way, she has been taking too long to transition from being a conservative cheerleader, to being a national statesman. While I am sure Palin can do this, her tardiness in doing so has frustrated me and allowed me to find inspirations in others such as Congressman Paul Ryan.

I still think Sarah Palin is deserving of her iconic status, and I believe in her abilities, her thinking, and her policies but she has lost me to Paul Ryan. If Ryan does not run, Sarah will easily have me back behind her. For now though, I would really just like to know already who is or isn’t running.

Next time around I propose that the G.O.P. set a date for which all candidates must declare their candidacies. That will help to at least ratchet down the stress of all the uncertainty we are seeing now and anxiety I am feeling.  Anyone know of any good over-the-counter sedatives?…….And I don’t mean the type that Ron Paul wants us to sell.

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White House 2012 Crossword Puzzle for Week of February 27, 2011

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Use the last names of the following influential conservatives of past and present

ACROSS:

2. This former Chairman of the House Republican Policy Committee is now Vice Chair of the House Subcommittee on the U.S. Constitution and a possible candidate for Governor of a Mid-West state.

3. Considered by many to be a Neo-con, this man recieved a recess appointment to a job at the U.N. by President George W. Bush.

5. This Anglican priest and an influential theologian, emphasised reason, tolerance and the value of tradition and is considered by historians to be the father of conservatism.

7. He is said to have sold reaganomics to Ronald Reagan.

9. Her radio commentaries are heard daily on over 600 stations, and her radio talk show on education called “Eagle Forum Live” is heard weekly on 75 stations.

10. The 17th Chief Justice of the Supreme Court.

DOWN:

1. He warned liberals that they would have to rip his gun from his cold, dead hands.

3. His second blog endeavor, broke the ACORN scandal that brought the group to its knees.

4. A strand of pubic hair on his can of Coca-Cola almost kept him from getting his job.

6. In December of 1971, he publicly broke with the Nixon administration, criticizing “the presentation of liberal policies in the verbal trappings of conservatism.” In 1972 he challenged Nixon for the GOP presidential nomination.

7. From 1985 to 1988, he served as assistant secretary of state for international organization affairs. An outspoken conservative and sometimes a controversial figure, he twice for U.S. Senate from Maryland and once in Illinois.

8. This daughter of two Philippine citizens is a blogger, political commentator, and author whose weekly, syndicated column appears in a number of newspapers and websites nationwide.

11. The first and only woman to serve as National Security Advisor to the president of the United States.

Click Here For the Answers

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